Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

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cncpc
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by cncpc » Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:15 pm

goldeneagle wrote:This whole discussion brings up some questions, and comments. A lot of us are basing basic projections from what we see on the flightaware track, it shows 230 knots thru 7900, then when the next point is expected a minute later, there is nothing. BUT, flightaware doesn't get the raw data, they get what amounts to a sanitized and paced data feed. We are all sort of assuming things based on one radar point being there, and the next expected point is missing.

In the news, there is a statement from investigators regarding what amounts to an uncontrolled descent. To make that statement, they must have some pretty solid evidence regarding descent rates, more than just a projection from a single radar hit. So my question for anybody that has better knowledge, how many different radar sites would be sweeping over that area, and at what frequency ? Is it possible that the investigators have radar traces (with transponder info) at a much higher frequency, and they can actually see the descent in that data ? Can they glean altitude information from raw data lacking transponder returns ?

If you listen to the liveatc recording, there is another tidbit conspicuously missing that makes me wonder if the controllers had already seen descending info on radar hits. We can hear 66 acknowledge the climb to 16 thousand, nothing sounds out of place. Then a bit later, controller asks 44 to try company, and another aircraft to listen for an elt. If it was just a case of 'now you see it, now you dont', I would have expected a controller to be asking 66 to recycle the transponder, but that's not in the recording. No calls to 66, just ask somebody to listen for an elt, so they already had a really good idea of what was going on at that point.

In the press comments late yesterday, Yearwood states a high level of confidence they can piece together what happened even without recorders. I dont think they would express that level of confidence if they dont already have a lot of information we dont know about.
Thanks for an excellent answer.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by cncpc » Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:20 pm

I don't know if YVR even has primary radar anymore, but I would think the SSR would have seen them almost to the ground if the transponder was still working. There is a radar head at Victoria just south of the airport, and probably something down around Bellingham or at that marine air base down there.

A guy went missing back about 7 years ago on a flight from Revelstoke to the Island. They couldn't get a trace from the Fly Hills site, but they were able to see him on data that came from a US Border Patrol Pilatus flying just south of the line at the time. Sadly, that man is still missing.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Bflats » Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:25 pm

Recognize that liveatc doesn't catch everything. That one recording switches from departure/arrival throughout. When it's on the arrival frequency, you aren't hearing what's is going on departure etc.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Gear Jerker » Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:28 pm

goldeneagle wrote:This whole discussion brings up some questions, and comments. A lot of us are basing basic projections from what we see on the flightaware track, it shows 230 knots thru 7900, then when the next point is expected a minute later, there is nothing. BUT, flightaware doesn't get the raw data, they get what amounts to a sanitized and paced data feed. We are all sort of assuming things based on one radar point being there, and the next expected point is missing.

In the news, there is a statement from investigators regarding what amounts to an uncontrolled descent. To make that statement, they must have some pretty solid evidence regarding descent rates, more than just a projection from a single radar hit. So my question for anybody that has better knowledge, how many different radar sites would be sweeping over that area, and at what frequency ? Is it possible that the investigators have radar traces (with transponder info) at a much higher frequency, and they can actually see the descent in that data ? Can they glean altitude information from raw data lacking transponder returns ?

If you listen to the liveatc recording, there is another tidbit conspicuously missing that makes me wonder if the controllers had already seen descending info on radar hits. We can hear 66 acknowledge the climb to 16 thousand, nothing sounds out of place. Then a bit later, controller asks 44 to try company, and another aircraft to listen for an elt. If it was just a case of 'now you see it, now you dont', I would have expected a controller to be asking 66 to recycle the transponder, but that's not in the recording. No calls to 66, just ask somebody to listen for an elt, so they already had a really good idea of what was going on at that point.

In the press comments late yesterday, Yearwood states a high level of confidence they can piece together what happened even without recorders. I dont think they would express that level of confidence if they dont already have a lot of information we dont know about.
Don't read too much into the liveatc.net recordings, as they are a combined output from multiple frequencies into one audio file. I don't know exactly how the algorithm works but it's safe to say that it doesn't provide a complete picture.

I agree about the radar; they undoubtedly have a lot more information than we do from flightaware.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by grimey » Wed Apr 15, 2015 12:33 pm

CID wrote:
5000 feet per minute. I think airframe failure is the only possibility. Icing or mechanical failure wouldn't have been so abrupt.
A few years back a FedEx Caravan basically fell out of the sky into a Winnipeg neighborhood due to icing.

http://aviation-safety.net/database/rec ... 20051006-0

Condolences to family and friends of the flight crew.
She still had 30 seconds to make a couple calls before it crashed, and stayed in the air for another minute or two after her last call. I don't think anyone here was suggesting that icing couldn't take down a plane, only that it's unlikely that it would have been so sudden.

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-repor ... 5c0187.pdf
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by awitzke » Wed Apr 15, 2015 1:14 pm

What is interesting is how they said there is no impact zone or scarring in the land. Almost like it just fell out of the sky, which leads you to think in flight break up. Which would explain why there was no call. Cargo door?
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by PointyEngine » Wed Apr 15, 2015 1:50 pm

Good post goldeneagle, some valid points there.

This is the only situation where I've heard of a metro coming to pieces in flight. Basically electrical failure due to lightning, then loss of control and breakup of the aircraft.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N%C3%BCrnb ... Flight_108
http://aviation-safety.net/database/rec ... 19880208-2

The Metro 2 has some serious tail work required once it hits around 35,000 hours, most operators send them to the pop can factory at this point.

We've always speculated if the cargo door opened, it would be a bad day. However it never seems to have happened, or if it does, the air-stream may hold it shut?
Wonder if there was any in the cargo on-board that may have caused this whole situation as well?

Too many questions still...
I'm sure the TSB will get to the cause of this beast, hopefully they release some findings quickly.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by boeingboy » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:30 pm

It would help if there were more pics of the site, but the terrain is fairly steep in there. There is no place to try and put down if need be. The size of the weakage does seem to indicate - in that situation - that it broke before impact.

The only thing I can think of besides my fear of what happened.....would be a possible elevator cable failure or maybe pitch trim actuator failure with a severe pitch over, leading to breakup. However - I think it would be a first for this airplane type. Of course - no one has mentioned a bomb...so I might as well throw it in there.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by midwingcrisis » Wed Apr 15, 2015 2:59 pm

Please find attached historical accident/incident narratives for the SW4

http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/dbl ... AcType=SW4
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by co-joe » Wed Apr 15, 2015 3:38 pm

Could tail plane ice cause an abrupt enough pitch change to lead to in flight breakup? Some of the worst ice I've ever seen in my life was in Tcu tops around 12 000' on approach into YVR in a King Air 90. Lost 40 KIAS in a few seconds, pitot froze over completely. 500' later it all shed.

Anybody know what Va is in the II? Page 1 somebody mentioned a rough ride that day...
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Sidebar » Wed Apr 15, 2015 4:09 pm

SSR typically has a scan frequency of about once every 5 seconds. It provides good information to develop the flight path.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by gimmepars » Wed Apr 15, 2015 4:50 pm

Pilots names were released by the coroner's service today. I knew the captain from the flight school where he trained dispatched and taught. Last time I saw him was at Carson's FBO in YLW on the day of his upgrade ride last summer. Good guy. RIP.

http://www.castanet.net/news/BC/137692/ ... identified
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by cv990 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:30 pm

So sad.... Have they said which bird it was?
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by bizjets101 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 5:35 pm

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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by black hole » Wed Apr 15, 2015 6:28 pm

Load Shift?

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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Yycaviator » Wed Apr 15, 2015 6:30 pm

There was a metro 2 a year or two a go that suffered an elevator cable (failure) as the crew was touching down. They lost complete control of the elevator. had it happened a few minutes earlier, I predict a similar kind of rapid decent. It was never investigated outside of the company due to it not being an accident...
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by TomC » Wed Apr 15, 2015 7:02 pm

Didn't know them personally but I'm sure I crossed paths with them at the YLW FBO. Thoughts to everyone affected!

Talk about horrible luck for this registration:

http://aviation-safety.net/database/rec ... 20010914-0
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by P2T2 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:17 pm

Regarding the cargo door theory.. there is a bar that can be placed through the locking mech from the inside that will allow the door to be opened... if for some reason that was left in, and there was a load shift...

Not saying thats the cause.. only on the door theory...
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by co-joe » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:01 pm

SKC was a Skyward ident wasn't it?
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by boeingboy » Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:56 pm

SKC was a Skyward ident wasn't it?
Skylink express.
Regarding the cargo door theory.. there is a bar that can be placed through the locking mech from the inside that will allow the door to be opened... if for some reason that was left in, and there was a load shift...

Not saying thats the cause.. only on the door theory...
Was already stated that the PG run bulks out - so no load shift. The bar has to be moved from the horizontal to the vertical in order to unlock - so that's not going to happen from a box.

Why is it that everyone keeps coming up with a cargo door opening as a cause? There was only 1 or 2 doors that opened and at that it was only the lower third of the door that blew out. The aircraft were all landed safely and an AD was issued years ago to deal with the problem. Overall the metro has to be one of the safest aircraft out there.

BTW - SKC has 30 some odd thousand hours and over 50,000 cycles. Stun-moo's take care of structural problems - so I would be highly surprised if the cycles had anything to do with it. There are metros out there with lots more than that and they are still flying around without problems.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by magic wand » Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:09 am

boeingboy wrote:Ever since I heard about this crash - I've had this nagging feeling I suspect I know what happened.....for now I'm not going to post my thoughts as there is not enough evidense to speculate on what happened. Last thing I want is some news nut or rumors starting based on some feeling I have.

If my feeling turns out to be true - it is tragic and I feel for those others involved as it would be a nightmare senario.....it also would be a one off thing and not a sestemic fleet problem.
Hey boeingboy - you seem to be shooting down everyone's comments in regards to possible causes..yet you have your own obscure theory that you don't want to disclose. WTF?
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Illya Kuryakin » Thu Apr 16, 2015 8:23 am

Note to TSB
If this was a catastrophic structural failure there are operators who need to know quickly.
Otherwise, carry on.
Thoughts with everybody involved.
Illya
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by CFM Symphony » Thu Apr 16, 2015 9:22 am

Illya Kuryakin wrote:Note to TSB
If this was a catastrophic structural failure there are operators who need to know quickly.
Otherwise, carry on.
Thoughts with everybody involved.
Illya
The TSB issues such safety advisories in a timely fashion all the time and as soon as they have the info available. They did so in the Bearskin metro accident for example, as with many others. I hardly think they need a reminder, much less a directive on how to carry out their jobs. Anything else you want is just to satisfy your own curiosity. Wait!
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by boeingboy » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:25 am

Hey boeingboy - you seem to be shooting down everyone's comments in regards to possible causes..yet you have your own obscure theory that you don't want to disclose. WTF?
When I engage in speculation - it is informed speculation with regards to the available evidence. It's not radom thoughts. There is simply not enough evidence yet to support anything. Those out there who throw out ideas are fine - but I've simply been stating facts to those ideas. If you want to concider that as shooting people down fine.

There seems to be two things people are focusing on Icing and a blown cargo door. Im not saying icing is not the cause, but these planes are not all bad when it comes to ice either...and if they did ice up I would expect a decrease in preformance first - rather than a sudden drop from radar. Going from 240kts and 1500"/min one min, to -5000'+ the next doesn't strike me as your typical icing problem. I've been in a metro with heavy ice before...so heavy the airframe had a hrad time keeping up with it and the props were coated when we landed...but she handled it just fine.

As for the cargo door - again...there has never been one lost so I dont understand the fixation. Even if the maintenance guys messed up royally and somehow put a wrong part in or messed up an insp (exteamly difficult to do) then the whole door is not going to come off, a section about 4 feet by 1 foot will fail and bend, but not seperate from the aircraft.

I would suspect that if it was a mechanical problem that caused it to go down - diving into steep mountain cliffs with no place to even ditch a Cessna 150 safely - the plane would look more like Germanwings - ....but accoding to TSB and the little pics and news we have, they are fairly large pieces. Fuse, tail, cockpit, wing with no ground scaring.

Draw from that what you will.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by magic wand » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:52 am

boeingboy wrote:
The only thing I can think of besides my fear of what happened.....would be a possible elevator cable failure or maybe pitch trim actuator failure with a severe pitch over, leading to breakup. However - I think it would be a first for this airplane type. Of course - no one has mentioned a bomb...so I might as well throw it in there.
So you throw three ideas of speculation out in the above quote..yet..you say..
When I engage in speculation - it is informed speculation with regards to the available evidence. It's not radom thoughts. There is simply not enough evidence yet to support anything. Those out there who throw out ideas are fine - but I've simply been stating facts to those ideas. If you want to concider that as shooting people down fine.
What is your -
my fear of what happened
- you might as well throw it out there seeings how you dont use
random thoughts
and have only been
stating facts
.


Children at play for sure!
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