Wasaya caravan missing

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pdw
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Re: Wasaya caravan missing

#251 Post by pdw » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:34 pm

Sidebar wrote:I think the TSB probably used "estimated" because they were using met data from an observation drone about two hours before the accident.
"Estimated" component data which KCAS values are based on, starting at 9:03 (represented by the light green line of the TSB flight data chart above dark-green/groundspeed) is pretty close. Maybe is a bit faster AS at a couple of spots ...

The "radiosonde" component-info (chevrons between 2500' and somewhere just below 5000') are given North at 20-25kts (looks like) for/after the early altitude ("5kts-NNE"/lowest chevron) where the northerly course started around 2500ft around the left turnout. IMO there must be at least the 20kt spread between these two speedlines for the middle of this five minute northerly climb .. in-between 9:03:10 and 9:08:30.

The first track data "9:03 to 9:03:34" includes "800fpm" for 10-15sec and the "100ft" lost right-after, which is signature of some brief performance increase, yet still ends up only 240ft of net altitude gained in that 34sec segment.

Following the +/- fluctuation and after another five minutes of climb to 9:08:41 there is obviously performance decrease (shearlike) where the Cargo Caravan transitioned into lighter/warmer West component moving at/above 5000' (indicated by radiosonde-infochart/wind-chevrons) near where the climb-rate ceased. Such relativewind reduction going-on ahead-of "event 1" is a secondary climb-performance loss coming alongside the primary one (the lift-degrading icing buildup/encounter described in the report).
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Re: Wasaya caravan missing

#252 Post by pdw » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:28 pm

rxl wrote:This airplane has a deplorable safety record.
27 years old (1990) with 36,063 hours on the airframe.
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Re: Wasaya caravan missing

#253 Post by GyvAir » Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:14 pm

pdw wrote:
rxl wrote:This airplane has a deplorable safety record.
27 years old (1990) with 36,063 hours on the airframe.
A more interesting number and more relevant to the initial comment would be the worldwide fleet hours.
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Re: Wasaya caravan missing

#254 Post by pdw » Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:22 pm

Can you get an average?
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Re: Wasaya caravan missing

#255 Post by GyvAir » Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:19 pm

pdw wrote:Can you get an average?
Tough to find real or current stats.

https://www.avbuyer.com/articles/jets-f ... -one-19970

8,400,000 fleet hours according to the above article from back in 2005.

7,000,000 hours/1522 produced to date = average of 2800


So, add 12 years of fleet flight time and 1000 new production units, minus retired and destroyed airframes and there's your average.

I'm sure it's been argued a thousand times that the Caravan accident statistics have more to do with pilot experience, mission type, runway conditions and the parts of the world that many of them operate in than the airframe itself.
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Re: Wasaya caravan missing

#256 Post by pdw » Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:49 am

GyvAir wrote:pilot experience, mission type
For this profile (mission type), namely the icing related accidents in the database of reports for this aircraft, there seems to be a mix of low and hightime pilots (pilot experience) in 60-70 that are in there.
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