Wasaya caravan missing

[Dash-6]

As pilots, let's not try and draw conclusions and wait for the TSB report and just be a little more cautious when flying in general. It's not fair to judge this pilots flying skills or judgement based on theory and not facts. Let him actually rest in peace!!!! You know as a pilot its our worse nightmare to not land or takeoff safely.

Let him rest.

[Illya Kuryakin]

Good plan there Dash-6. No conclusions. In 18-24 months what "really" happened, will be made public. Yup, great plan. Scheesh.
Places head back in the sand...
Illya

[cdnpilot77]

I sure wasn't expecting this when I heard the initial report.

Wow! Certainly not what I was expecting of "relatively in tact"!!

Sorry to see we've lost another young aviator...rest in peace!

[ShayneHirter]

RIP. Not to be blunt, climb climb climb.

If he picked up icing he wouldn't be able to climb as that is the problem with the van especially with a full load, this is very sad and i have been in very similar situations early on in my career but based on luck/environmental factors was able to get to an airport and land safely.

Godspeed

Firewall the thing, it will get out, or don't end up in that sit in the first place. I've been there.

Thanks tips. Anymore awesome advice?

[trey kule]

Yes. When it comes to frost or icing you can not determine your "limit" as seems to be suggested by some...so the only way to know if you are close to it is to cross over and lose control.

The best thing you can do to live a long life is to understand this and never go out to see how close to the limit you can get,,,did I mention that no one can determine exactly when they will exceed it?

[YYZSaabGuy]

The way to learn the limit is to get close to it without going over and live to never do it again.

Or - and here's something to consider - maybe just learn from the experience of those who have gone before you, rather than thinking you need to rediscover basic aerodynamics?

[Illya Kuryakin]

The "limit" with the Caravan is the first indication of frost, or ice. Three "steamboats" later, the 180 degree turn must be executed. Why don't pilots get this??
Illya

[cdnpilot77]

Since graduating from the Soo in 2009, he's the second member of his class to perish in an accident (recall the FO from the Bearskin crash a few years back outside of Pickle).

Do you mean the Red Lake crash? IIRC that crash also had something to do with icing and an engine failure? Maybe it's about time the colleges and puppy mills start teaching real world flying as part of the CPL curriculum? Spend a little more time on keeping these young people alive with courses on things like icing instead of how to keep a journal?

[Meatservo]

That was kind of cheap. Are you basing the superiority of your education on the fact that you're still alive? So am I. So are all the graduates in my class from college. Twenty-two years and counting.

[2R]

At one time you could not get insurance on a caravan for Single Pilot IFR with less than 2000 hours PIC, I say again 2000 hours of pilot in command time for insurance for carrying pax spifr.
What is the current insurance requirements for cargo ops ?
It could be difficult now that FO's are logging all time as PIC.
It will be interesting to see what the insurance companies reaction to this latest single pilot accident will be .

They might insist on two crew again, for some operators on all operations not just freight runs "VFR"

[idratherbeflying]

Since graduating from the Soo in 2009, he's the second member of his class to perish in an accident (recall the FO from the Bearskin crash a few years back outside of Pickle).

Do you mean the Red Lake crash? IIRC that crash also had something to do with icing and an engine failure? Maybe it's about time the colleges and puppy mills start teaching real world flying as part of the CPL curriculum? Spend a little more time on keeping these young people alive with courses on things like icing instead of how to keep a journal?

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-repor ... 3c0150.asp.

I do not see anything about icing in that report.

Those general comments really make your intelligence level seem a lot lower than, I am sure, it actually is! While I agree that everyone would probably not complain about more icing education in a zero-risk environment, the truth of the matter is that each icing encounter is different, the same as each and every one of us is different, or the types we fly.

We all make mistakes, I do every day! The very unfortunate thing about this case is that the mistake, or series of them, did not end well.

RIP Nick.

[CpnCrunch]

There was no flight plan on flightaware, so it was likely they were VFR. This is confirmed in the CADOR:

http://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/saf-sec-sur/2/c ... d2015O3436

Although the GFA showed moderate mixed icing from the freezing level up to about 15000ft IIRC, if they were flying VFR then icing wouldn't have been an issue unless there there was unforecast FZDZ.

METAR CYPL 111600Z 00000KT 4SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2980 RMK SC8 SLP118=
METAR CYPL 111500Z 04002KT 3SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2978 RMK SC8 SLP111=
METAR CYPL 111400Z 06005KT 6SM -SN OVC012 M06/M08 A2975 RMK SC8 PRESRR SLP102=
TAF CYPL 111238Z 1113/1201 02008KT P6SM -SN OVC015 TEMPO 1116/1118 P6SM NSW OVC025 FM111800 01012KT P6SM OVC025 TEMPO 1118/1201 P6SM -SN OVC015 RMK NXT FCST BY 112000Z=

Although as Gorgons points out below, the weather near their destination was overcast at 300ft.

[Shady McSly]

You guys did it!

[ShayneHirter]

There's a lot of speculation here from people who haven't bothered checking the facts that we already know.

There was no flight plan on flightaware, so it was likely they were VFR. This is confirmed in the CADOR:

http://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/saf-sec-sur/2/c ... d2015O3436

Although the GFA showed moderate mixed icing from the freezing level up to about 15000ft IIRC, if they were flying VFR then icing wouldn't have been an issue unless there there was unforecast FZDZ.

METAR CYPL 111600Z 00000KT 4SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2980 RMK SC8 SLP118=
METAR CYPL 111500Z 04002KT 3SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2978 RMK SC8 SLP111=
METAR CYPL 111400Z 06005KT 6SM -SN OVC012 M06/M08 A2975 RMK SC8 PRESRR SLP102=
TAF CYPL 111238Z 1113/1201 02008KT P6SM -SN OVC015 TEMPO 1116/1118 P6SM NSW OVC025 FM111800 01012KT P6SM OVC025 TEMPO 1118/1201 P6SM -SN OVC015 RMK NXT FCST BY 112000Z=

So they weren't .. running, and probably no icing. The main danger would seem to be whiteout. It might still have made sense to cancel the flight for that reason, although it's hard to say without actually knowing what conditions actually looked like there. Perhaps a little bit more of difficult of a go/no-go decision than some people here are implying.

You really have no idea what happened or what he was doing. Also, not sure if you've noticed but the weather isn't always what the METAR says 10 miles away from the reporting station. As for the GFA, you can take it for what it is... a drawing.

[CpnCrunch]

edited

[Gorgons]

Well if you look at the bigger picture I'm not sure how you can say with such conviction there was no icing and 003 ceilings... destination was KB6, right next door to YTL. The YTL forecast was a shit forecast, all over the place, it was either going to be 010 OVC or 003 OVC. The YPL forecast was a little rosy, YPL vis was decreasing and already below the forecast 6SM, -FRZD hit YPL by noon. Given the actuals for YTL and the GFA (which forecasted ice from surface up) its not hard to envision you were probably going to encounter freezing precip and low ceiling to the north.

TAF AMD CYTL 111709Z 1117/1202 33008KT 2SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1117/1121 P6SM NSW OVC009 FM112100 36007KT 3SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1121/1202 P6SM NSW OVC010 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO
OBS. NXT FCST BY 112000Z=
FT 11/12/2015 13:40->
TAF CYTL 111340Z 1114/1202 36007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1114/1117 P6SM NSW OVC009 FM111700 36007KT 3SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1117/1202 P6SM NSW OVC010 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO
OBS. NXT FCST BY 112000Z=
FT 11/12/2015 11:48->
TAF AMD CYTL 111148Z 1111/1120 36007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1111/1114 P6SM NSW OVC009 FM111400 36007KT 2SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1114/1120 P6SM NSW OVC010
PROB30 1114/1118 OVC003 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO OBS. NXT
FCST BY 111400Z=
FT 11/12/2015 08:59->
TAF AMD CYTL 110859Z 1108/1120 36006KT 11/4SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1108/1112 6SM BR OVC009 FM111200 01008KT 2SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1112/1120 5SM -SN OVC010
PROB30 1112/1118 OVC003 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO OBS. NXT
FCST BY 111400Z=

SA 11/12/2015 18:00-> METAR CYTL 111800Z AUTO 34006KT 9SM -SN OVC005 M07/M07 A2989
RMK SLP139=
SP 11/12/2015 17:18-> SPECI CYTL 111718Z AUTO 33005KT 300V010 9SM -SN OVC005 M06/M07
A2989 RMK SLP138=
SA 11/12/2015 17:00-> METAR CYTL 111700Z AUTO 33005KT 300V010 9SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2988 RMK SLP137=
SP 11/12/2015 16:32-> SPECI CYTL 111632Z AUTO 33008KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2989
RMK SLP138=
SP 11/12/2015 16:04-> SPECI CYTL 111604Z AUTO 33007KT 5SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2988
RMK PRESRR SLP136=
SA 11/12/2015 16:00-> METAR CYTL 111600Z AUTO 33008KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2987
RMK SLP134=
SP 11/12/2015 15:47-> SPECI CYTL 111547Z AUTO 34006KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2986
RMK SLP129=
SP 11/12/2015 15:38-> SPECI CYTL 111538Z AUTO 34007KT 320V020 5SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2986 RMK SLP129=
SP 11/12/2015 15:29-> SPECI CYTL 111529Z AUTO 35005KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2986
RMK SLP128=
SP 11/12/2015 15:12-> SPECI CYTL 111512Z AUTO 34006KT 310V020 3SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2985 RMK SLP125=
SA 11/12/2015 15:00-> METAR CYTL 111500Z AUTO 36006KT 320V030 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003
M06/M07 A2984 RMK VIS VRB 1 1/2-3 SLP123=
SP 11/12/2015 14:51-> SPECI CYTL 111451Z AUTO 35005KT 310V030 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003
M06/M07 A2984 RMK VIS VRB 1 3/4-3 SLP122=
SP 11/12/2015 14:36-> SPECI CYTL 111436Z AUTO 35007KT 2SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2984
RMK VIS VRB 1 1/4-3 SLP122=
SP 11/12/2015 14:31-> SPECI CYTL 111431Z AUTO 34005KT 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2984 RMK VIS VRB 1 3/4-3 SLP121=
SP 11/12/2015 14:21-> SPECI CYTL 111421Z AUTO 35008KT 2SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2983
RMK VIS VRB 1-3 SLP119=
SP 11/12/2015 14:05-> SPECI CYTL 111405Z AUTO 34005KT 290V020 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003
M06/M07 A2983 RMK VIS VRB 1-3 SLP120=
SA 11/12/2015 14:00-> METAR CYTL 111400Z AUTO 34006KT 1 3/4SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2983 RMK VIS VRB 1-3 SLP120=


SA 11/12/2015 19:00-> METAR CYPL 111900Z VRB03KT 5SM -FZDZ -SN OVC006 M04/M06 A2984
RMK SF8 SLP131=
SA 11/12/2015 18:00-> METAR CYPL 111800Z 33004KT 290V050 3SM -FZDZ -SN OVC006 M04/M06
A2983 RMK SF8 SLP127=
SP 11/12/2015 17:36-> SPECI CYPL 111736Z 33003KT 270V080 4SM -FZDZ -SN OVC006 M04/M06
A2982 RMK SF8 SLP125=
SA 11/12/2015 17:00-> METAR CYPL 111700Z VRB02KT 5SM -SN BKN007 OVC012 M05/M06
A2981 RMK SF6SC2 SLP121=
SP 11/12/2015 16:47-> SPECI CYPL 111647Z VRB04KT 6SM -SN BKN007 OVC012 M05/M06
A2981 RMK SF6SC2 SLP123=
SA 11/12/2015 16:00-> METAR CYPL 111600Z 00000KT 4SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2980 RMK
SC8 SLP118=
SA 11/12/2015 15:00-> METAR CYPL 111500Z 04002KT 3SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2978 RMK
SC8 SLP111=
SA 11/12/2015 14:00-> METAR CYPL 111400Z 06005KT 6SM -SN OVC012 M06/M08 A2975 RMK
SC8 PRESRR SLP102=

[cdnpilot77]

That was kind of cheap. Are you basing the superiority of your education on the fact that you're still alive? So am I. So are all the graduates in my class from college. Twenty-two years and counting.

Nope, that was actually a call to all the flight colleges, including the one I attended. Real world training is needed, in a bad way. However, acknowledged, this is not the time.

[Illya Kuryakin]

That was kind of cheap. Are you basing the superiority of your education on the fact that you're still alive? So am I. So are all the graduates in my class from college. Twenty-two years and counting.

Nope, that was actually a call to all the flight colleges, including the one I attended. Real world training is needed, in a bad way. However, acknowledged, this is not the time.

Actually, yes....this IS the time! While we still have the taste in our mouth.
Illya

[oldncold]

Posted many times on Ce208 vans in ice but will attempt to reiterate> oldn cold rule for icing 5 knots decrease in airspeed LEAVE ALTITUDE IMMEDIATELY. EXIT STAGE OR LEFT RIGHT ANY FRICKN WAY YOU CAN.

there is a very common thread in all the 208 van accidents over many years and this may or may not be borne out in the investigation. which is lack of ifr currency,Ce208 they haul a good pay load but operators in my exp. always cringed at giving up paid cargo for fuel . IN NWO true alternates are still solid 1hr flying time plus approach and then 45 min reserve about 500 extra pounds . so the trips went vfr or didn't go . only thing I can suggest is if you fly a ce 208 vfr a lot and have a flight sim of some type, use it to practice the ifr currency for days like that, its better to do safe turnaround ifr then do an approach

rip nick met you once 2 years ago you on the pc 12 you were doing a charter my since condolences to the family ,

[SuperchargedRS]

Well if you look at the bigger picture I'm not sure how you can say with such conviction there was no icing and 003 ceilings... destination was KB6, right next door to YTL. The YTL forecast was a shit forecast, all over the place, it was either going to be 010 OVC or 003 OVC. The YPL forecast was a little rosy, YPL vis was decreasing and already below the forecast 6SM, -FRZD hit YPL by noon. Given the actuals for YTL and the GFA (which forecasted ice from surface up) its not hard to envision you were probably going to encounter freezing precip and low ceiling to the north.

TAF AMD CYTL 111709Z 1117/1202 33008KT 2SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1117/1121 P6SM NSW OVC009 FM112100 36007KT 3SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1121/1202 P6SM NSW OVC010 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO
OBS. NXT FCST BY 112000Z=
FT 11/12/2015 13:40->
TAF CYTL 111340Z 1114/1202 36007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1114/1117 P6SM NSW OVC009 FM111700 36007KT 3SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1117/1202 P6SM NSW OVC010 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO
OBS. NXT FCST BY 112000Z=
FT 11/12/2015 11:48->
TAF AMD CYTL 111148Z 1111/1120 36007KT 2SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1111/1114 P6SM NSW OVC009 FM111400 36007KT 2SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1114/1120 P6SM NSW OVC010
PROB30 1114/1118 OVC003 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO OBS. NXT
FCST BY 111400Z=
FT 11/12/2015 08:59->
TAF AMD CYTL 110859Z 1108/1120 36006KT 11/4SM -SN BR OVC003
TEMPO 1108/1112 6SM BR OVC009 FM111200 01008KT 2SM -SN
OVC004
TEMPO 1112/1120 5SM -SN OVC010
PROB30 1112/1118 OVC003 RMK FCST BASED ON AUTO OBS. NXT
FCST BY 111400Z=

SA 11/12/2015 18:00-> METAR CYTL 111800Z AUTO 34006KT 9SM -SN OVC005 M07/M07 A2989
RMK SLP139=
SP 11/12/2015 17:18-> SPECI CYTL 111718Z AUTO 33005KT 300V010 9SM -SN OVC005 M06/M07
A2989 RMK SLP138=
SA 11/12/2015 17:00-> METAR CYTL 111700Z AUTO 33005KT 300V010 9SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2988 RMK SLP137=
SP 11/12/2015 16:32-> SPECI CYTL 111632Z AUTO 33008KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2989
RMK SLP138=
SP 11/12/2015 16:04-> SPECI CYTL 111604Z AUTO 33007KT 5SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2988
RMK PRESRR SLP136=
SA 11/12/2015 16:00-> METAR CYTL 111600Z AUTO 33008KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2987
RMK SLP134=
SP 11/12/2015 15:47-> SPECI CYTL 111547Z AUTO 34006KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2986
RMK SLP129=
SP 11/12/2015 15:38-> SPECI CYTL 111538Z AUTO 34007KT 320V020 5SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2986 RMK SLP129=
SP 11/12/2015 15:29-> SPECI CYTL 111529Z AUTO 35005KT 6SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2986
RMK SLP128=
SP 11/12/2015 15:12-> SPECI CYTL 111512Z AUTO 34006KT 310V020 3SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2985 RMK SLP125=
SA 11/12/2015 15:00-> METAR CYTL 111500Z AUTO 36006KT 320V030 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003
M06/M07 A2984 RMK VIS VRB 1 1/2-3 SLP123=
SP 11/12/2015 14:51-> SPECI CYTL 111451Z AUTO 35005KT 310V030 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003
M06/M07 A2984 RMK VIS VRB 1 3/4-3 SLP122=
SP 11/12/2015 14:36-> SPECI CYTL 111436Z AUTO 35007KT 2SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2984
RMK VIS VRB 1 1/4-3 SLP122=
SP 11/12/2015 14:31-> SPECI CYTL 111431Z AUTO 34005KT 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2984 RMK VIS VRB 1 3/4-3 SLP121=
SP 11/12/2015 14:21-> SPECI CYTL 111421Z AUTO 35008KT 2SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07 A2983
RMK VIS VRB 1-3 SLP119=
SP 11/12/2015 14:05-> SPECI CYTL 111405Z AUTO 34005KT 290V020 2 1/4SM -SN OVC003
M06/M07 A2983 RMK VIS VRB 1-3 SLP120=
SA 11/12/2015 14:00-> METAR CYTL 111400Z AUTO 34006KT 1 3/4SM -SN OVC003 M06/M07
A2983 RMK VIS VRB 1-3 SLP120=


SA 11/12/2015 19:00-> METAR CYPL 111900Z VRB03KT 5SM -FZDZ -SN OVC006 M04/M06 A2984
RMK SF8 SLP131=
SA 11/12/2015 18:00-> METAR CYPL 111800Z 33004KT 290V050 3SM -FZDZ -SN OVC006 M04/M06
A2983 RMK SF8 SLP127=
SP 11/12/2015 17:36-> SPECI CYPL 111736Z 33003KT 270V080 4SM -FZDZ -SN OVC006 M04/M06
A2982 RMK SF8 SLP125=
SA 11/12/2015 17:00-> METAR CYPL 111700Z VRB02KT 5SM -SN BKN007 OVC012 M05/M06
A2981 RMK SF6SC2 SLP121=
SP 11/12/2015 16:47-> SPECI CYPL 111647Z VRB04KT 6SM -SN BKN007 OVC012 M05/M06
A2981 RMK SF6SC2 SLP123=
SA 11/12/2015 16:00-> METAR CYPL 111600Z 00000KT 4SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2980 RMK
SC8 SLP118=
SA 11/12/2015 15:00-> METAR CYPL 111500Z 04002KT 3SM -SN OVC012 M06/M07 A2978 RMK
SC8 SLP111=
SA 11/12/2015 14:00-> METAR CYPL 111400Z 06005KT 6SM -SN OVC012 M06/M08 A2975 RMK
SC8 PRESRR SLP102=

Not much room for error, especially in a van on wheels.