Citation down North of Kelowna

[AuxBatOn]

1st hit is 2min after takeOff doing 160kts at 4000', then 3000' per minute climb to 7000' at 150kt /3min mark. Next/last hit is down to 4800ft at 120kts, 4min after takeoff (the 3 radar hits info on flightaware, plus the take-off time given as 9:32 local).

Average flightaware speed is 130-140kts over the 4 min, which works out to about 8-9 nautical miles flown in that time, yet the distance between the airport to the accident site is 6 nautical miles and approx 1nm mile up. Winds near calm at surface at ylw 9pm local, so ASN "rwy16" info looks possible.

I am pretty sure aircraft turn. Velocity has both a magnitude and a direction: if the aircraft is not going directly away from the airport, even though it may have travelled 8 miles, it will not be 8 miles from the airport...

[bigsky]

Attitude instrument failure not caught in time could do it.

One of the early Citation crashes happened because the pilot had jumped in and got in the air before the gyros had spooled up.

That would be pretty damn fast! Doesnt anyone do instrument checks while taxing anymore?

[North Shore]

Never met the pilot, but from this account, he doesn't sound like a 'hurry up' type of guy. http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 4&t=111114

[cncpc]

Never met the pilot, but from this account, he doesn't sound like a 'hurry up' type of guy. http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopi ... 4&t=111114

Was he a pilot in the RCMP?

[MrWings]

On the CBC radio this morning they said investigators said from early indications it looks like an in-flight breakup vs flying into the mountain.

Wouldn't that mean there were pieces found away from the main crash site?

Or maybe it is just an inaccurate reporting of what was discussed. Maybe they told the reporter an in-flight incident vs CFIT.

[Oscar]

Link to identities

http://globalnews.ca/news/3005313/fourt ... dentified/

[Old fella]

Condolences to those affected as a result of this sad/tragic accident. Regardless of the final outcome from the TSB it is my considered opinion S/P ops in a turbojet aircraft should never be permitted under any circumstances.

[AuxBatOn]

Condolences to those affected as a result of this sad/tragic accident. Regardless of the final outcome from the TSB it is my considered opinion S/P ops in a turbojet aircraft should never be permitted under any circumstances.

I am assuming you mean commercial ops. Plenty of safe single pilot turbo jet aircraft out there. Just need to right pilots to fly them.

[Gramps]

I feel the need to respond to the speculators on this specific forum.

1. A quick examination of the aircraft track on FlightAware reveals updates in the order of one per minute. My guess is that the ATC tapes that the TSB will be examining with respect to this flight will likely be updated more frequently than once per minute. Lots can happen over the course of one minute. Lets hope for clarity, JK was a good friend.

2. Some here feel that single pilot jet ops should never happen. Do these na-sayers feel the same regarding PC-12 pilots? What about the guys flying Mustang's and Embraer's? And bag runners in Navajo's, Seneca's? I have done the S/P thing on and off for over 40 years, I will take the performance and avionics of the modern turbojet that I currently fly any day of the week. Here is a good read on just this topic, from early last year: Imagine one pilot up front in your A380. Could happen if the NASA/Rockwell study proves to have merit.

http://aviationweek.com/technology/nasa ... s-concepts

IMO two or more pilots do not necessarily make a flight "safer" or alleviate the risks. Examples are Asiana 214, three pilots land short at SFO in perfect VFR. Eastern Airlines 401, three pilots in the front of an L1011 dealing with a landing gear issue. Nobody flying the plane, slow descent into the Florida Everglades. Saw Ted Chernecki last night on Global, wondering why there was no co-pilot on this flight. "It was a night flight, in rain, without a co-pilot". Can any of the critics out there tell me the one time that S/P Op's actually do require a SIC? This specific requirement most assuredly was not a consideration on this flight.

Maybe we can wait for something definitive from the TSB, instead of conjecture on this forum.

Fly safe everyone, fly safe.

G

[sportingrifle]

I am going to have to respectfully disagree with Gramps. I have spent many years flying single pilot IFR and even more working in a 2 crew airplane. This accident could have been caused by a myriad of things from structural failure, to pilot incapacitation, to something as simple as forgetting to turn the pitot heat on. Hopefully the TSB will be able to figure it out, although I think it will be a tough investigation. A few thoughts in no particular order:

While not single pilot related, the pilot probably had had one brutal long duty day. If Flight Aware is correct, the airplane departed at 0724 PST in the morning. Factoring in pre-flight duties, start up and taxi, drive to the airport, and stopping at Timmies, if the pilot didn't spend a day in a hotel, he may have been up for 16 hours. (And if he did, he was still trying to get rest off his circadian rhythm - the shift worker syndrome, tough to do) If he was up all day, it would have been very easy to make a critical error. In fact it would have been a challenge not to, especially if something happened out of the ordinary. And this is where the 2 crew part becomes important.

Modern airplanes are really easy to fly, and don't need 2 pilots to just manipulate the controls. Running a complex checklist perhaps, but thanks to modern certification requirements, they are pretty easy and forgiving to fly. Even the big jets. The value of the 2nd crew member lies in the cross checking and error trapping. Forget to turn the pitot heat on or mis-set a cleared altitude and hopefully the other pilot will catch it. (Yes, there are examples of entire airline crews who didn't but on balance, if airliners only had one pilot, the accident record would be many many times worse.) And when things go sideways, another brain may recognize a problem before you do, or provide a better solution to it.

And the pilotless airplane thanks to automation. Not in my lifetime. The problem with automation is that it relies on a set of assumptions that are made by a software engineer in a far away place, and many years ago. When reality differs from the assumptions inherent in the software, things go off the rails fast. I flew an Airbus for about 15 years and about every month I had to intervene and save it from doing something really bad to itself. The problem wasn't the 'Bus, (and the B787 is the same lest I seem like I am picking on Airbus), it always did what it was supposed to. The problem was always a situation the automation designers hadn't foreseen years earlier. Evidence of this is the loss rate for advanced military drones...something in the range of 5-10% per year! And they don't work out of busy airports.

The best safety enhancement in an airplane is a well trained, experienced and supported pilot. The only thing better is 2 of them. Sincere condolences by all affected by this sad accident. And when the answers are found, hopefully we will all be a little bit more knowledgeable.

sportingrifle

[Old fella]

Condolences to those affected as a result of this sad/tragic accident. Regardless of the final outcome from the TSB it is my considered opinion S/P ops in a turbojet aircraft should never be permitted under any circumstances.

I am assuming you mean commercial ops. Plenty of safe single pilot turbo jet aircraft out there. Just need to right pilots to fly them.

Nope. I mean no single pilot ops period in a turbojet that is capable to be in the mid 30 thousand and the 350kt range. All my BE90/100/200 C550 background has been 2 qualified pilots up front of which both have current PPC on types. Sorry but this is my view point.

['97 Tercel]

military jets aside is assumed

[Siddley Hawker]

Condolences to those affected as a result of this sad/tragic accident. Regardless of the final outcome from the TSB it is my considered opinion S/P ops in a turbojet aircraft should never be permitted under any circumstances.

+1

[teacher]

Just saw an aerial view of the crash site, it appears to have gone in vertical, no trail of debris, just the impact area. I hope there is a CVR and FDR for a hopefully quick report!

No CVR or FDR on board

Transportation Safety Board of Canada investigators looking into the plane crash that killed former Alberta premier Jim Prentice say there was no voice or data recorder on the plane, a fact that makes their investigation challenging.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/investigat ... -1.3117024

[fish4life]

The lack of CVR in general is really frustrating but the overall FDR / CVR abilities are terrible. In a world with super light and condensed flash storage it's really too bad every commercial aircraft doesn't have one. Most CVR's only have 2 hours of storage... cmon there is no reason it can't have 50hours on it.

An iPhone sized / weight device could be a little mini CVR / FDR, even if it just records gps position and used a little internal gyro similar to what an iPhone has at least all these aircraft that aren't currently required to have one will have some sort of data to go off of. It doesn't even have to be certified to the same high standards of an FDR currently so it could be made cheap like under $1000 cheap.

[rigpiggy]

How well did that work for the other ministers crash

[AirFrame]

Just saw an aerial view of the crash site, it appears to have gone in vertical, no trail of debris, just the impact area. I hope there is a CVR and FDR for a hopefully quick report!

No CVR or FDR on board

Interesting... The night after it happened the TSB rep was on TV saying there was a black box/cvr and they would be hoping to recover it.

[Saxub]

Could a dual engine flame out turn this aircraft into a -2200ft/min glider? Perhaps dual engine failure, ingestion of birds etc.? Lots of migratory bird activity in Canada recently. Even at altitudes above 5000'.

[tailgunner]

Dual engine failures are extremely rare, statistically speaking. Forgetting to put on the required anti-ice is a more likely cause, statistically speaking.

[cncpc]

Could a dual engine flame out turn this aircraft into a -2200ft/min glider? Perhaps dual engine failure, ingestion of birds etc.? Lots of migratory bird activity in Canada recently. Even at altitudes above 5000'.

120 kt. groundspeed on the last hit could support that, but no mayday.