Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Topics related to accidents, incidents & over due aircraft should be placed in this forum.

Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore

Post Reply
FICU
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2007 2:37 am

Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by FICU »

Emirates... This... http://avherald.com/h?article=4aec259b&opt=0

Who do you feel safe to fly on these days?
---------- ADS -----------
 
skybluetrek
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 109
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:53 am

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by skybluetrek »

thread's name asseveration also by courtesy of Kristen Charvin?
---------- ADS -----------
 
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by pelmet »

FICU wrote:Emirates... This... http://avherald.com/h?article=4aec259b&opt=0

Who do you feel safe to fly on these days?
Name the last fatal airliner accident off the top of your head. Ok...a couple of obscure South American companies.

There are virtually no more fatal airline accidents anymore.

I know you will name a couple of obscure ones but the rate accident rate is so small that I feel safe on most carriers aside from the threat from certain persons trying to blow them up. But they go after trains, subways and pedestrians with trucks along with those sitting in restaurants.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
confusedalot
Rank 8
Rank 8
Posts: 959
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 9:08 pm
Location: location, location, is what matters

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by confusedalot »

Embarrassing situations indeed, but they won't put a dent in the statistics. I guess we will all have get used to the new normal.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Attempting to understand the world. I have not succeeded.

veni, vidi,...... vici non fecit.

:?
FICU
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2007 2:37 am

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by FICU »

skybluetrek wrote:thread's name asseveration also by courtesy of Kristen Charvin?
No idea who that is... my comment is based on the fact there is going to be considerable increase in flying worldwide, especially in SE Asia, while there will be a considerable decrease in experience and proper training in the pointy end.

Peruse avherald to see what the trend is especially in runaway excursions.
---------- ADS -----------
 
FICU
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2007 2:37 am

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by FICU »

pelmet wrote:Name the last fatal airliner accident off the top of your head. Ok...a couple of obscure South American companies.

There are virtually no more fatal airline accidents anymore.
Not all fatal but a disturbing trend nonetheless...

-28 March 2017; Peruvian Airlines; 737-300; OB-2036-P; flight 112; Jauja, Peru

-16 January 2017; Turkish Airlines 747-400F; TC-MCL; flight TK6491; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

-27 October 2016; Eastern Airlines 737-700; N278EA; New York, NY

-3 August 2016; Emirates 777-300; A6-EMW; flight EK521; Dubai, UAE

-19 March 2016; flydubai 737-800; A6-FDN; flight FZ981; Rostov-on-Don, Russia

-15 December 2015; Southwest Airlines 737-300; N649SW; flight 31; Nashville, TN

http://www.airsafe.com/events/last_15.htm

Air France over the Atlantic... Turkish airlines on approach to Amsterdam... and the dozens of runway excursions in SE Asia... almost a weekly occurrence.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4403
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by rookiepilot »

FICU wrote:
pelmet wrote:Name the last fatal airliner accident off the top of your head. Ok...a couple of obscure South American companies.

There are virtually no more fatal airline accidents anymore.
Not all fatal but a disturbing trend nonetheless...

-28 March 2017; Peruvian Airlines; 737-300; OB-2036-P; flight 112; Jauja, Peru

-16 January 2017; Turkish Airlines 747-400F; TC-MCL; flight TK6491; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

-27 October 2016; Eastern Airlines 737-700; N278EA; New York, NY

-3 August 2016; Emirates 777-300; A6-EMW; flight EK521; Dubai, UAE

-19 March 2016; flydubai 737-800; A6-FDN; flight FZ981; Rostov-on-Don, Russia

-15 December 2015; Southwest Airlines 737-300; N649SW; flight 31; Nashville, TN

http://www.airsafe.com/events/last_15.htm

Air France over the Atlantic... Turkish airlines on approach to Amsterdam... and the dozens of runway excursions in SE Asia... almost a weekly occurrence.
Going to get flamed, the closest, most potential major disaster wasn't any of these, but our own Flag carrier at SFO.

We are equally -- if not more likely due to a complacent attitude, to provide the airline on the front pages one of these days.

I again point out an airline like Cathay, SE Asia based BTW. Stack their safety record against any North American airline.
---------- ADS -----------
 
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by pelmet »

FICU wrote:
pelmet wrote:Name the last fatal airliner accident off the top of your head. Ok...a couple of obscure South American companies.

There are virtually no more fatal airline accidents anymore.
Not all fatal but a disturbing trend nonetheless...

-28 March 2017; Peruvian Airlines; 737-300; OB-2036-P; flight 112; Jauja, Peru

-16 January 2017; Turkish Airlines 747-400F; TC-MCL; flight TK6491; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

-27 October 2016; Eastern Airlines 737-700; N278EA; New York, NY

-3 August 2016; Emirates 777-300; A6-EMW; flight EK521; Dubai, UAE

-19 March 2016; flydubai 737-800; A6-FDN; flight FZ981; Rostov-on-Don, Russia

-15 December 2015; Southwest Airlines 737-300; N649SW; flight 31; Nashville, TN

http://www.airsafe.com/events/last_15.htm

Air France over the Atlantic... Turkish airlines on approach to Amsterdam... and the dozens of runway excursions in SE Asia... almost a weekly occurrence.
In fact, if you actually take the time to look at the trends, you will see that airline travel has been getting safer and safer for years. Back in the '80's and earlier, there were so many airliner crashes. Windshears, CFIT's, etc. Some years, we had over 1000 passenger fatalities in an era where there were much less flights. Things have consistently gotten safer since then. Surprisingly, even in Africa as well.

Back in the day, many of these disturbing incidents that get so much coverage now, were barely even reported. People fail to consider this and with pictures and near instant news stories of this day and age, these people think that things are as bad as they were or as we see by the title of the thread...going to get much worse.

The reality is......if we had the technology that we do today (24 hour news, instant messages, forums like this, cameras in car, iphones, security cameras) back 30 years ago, we would have been overwhelmed by the accident and incidents. We have a hundred times more coverage for one tenth the accident rate.

So the reality is...from a statistical point of view....things are not going to get ugly in the next decade.
---------- ADS -----------
 
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by pelmet »

It really is amazing how few of the predictions of disaster in the future come true.

In 2005, the United Nations officially predicted that there would be 50 million climate change refugees by 2010.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 57713.html

I also remember the dire predictions on the news about 20 years ago of how, with the then predicted trend of increased flights with the rate of accidents at the time, the world would see an average of one airliner disaster per week. Never happened.

Unfortunately, many fall into the trap of believing the 'Sky is Falling' disaster predictions. It happens I the stock market all the time with those who are astute making handsome profits off those who make decisions emotionally. You may remember our former PM stating that it was a good time to invest in stocks during the last big recession. There was an outcry by many, but my return has been quite satisfactory in that time period.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/dion-layt ... s-1.705621
---------- ADS -----------
 
crazyaviator
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 671
Joined: Sun Oct 21, 2007 7:52 pm
Location: Ontario

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by crazyaviator »

Unfortunately, many fall into the trap of believing the 'Sky is Falling' disaster predictions. It happens I the stock market all the time with those who are astute making handsome profits off those who make decisions emotionally.
Can you say Global warming fiasco? Just like accident rates, there is a trend in the climate, but the earth is not going to implode !!!
---------- ADS -----------
 
FICU
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2007 2:37 am

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by FICU »

Just because we aren't seeing hull losses doesn't mean the skies are safe. Too many close calls... this is a good one: would you feel safe as a pax going 600 feet off the end of a 9000 foot runway?

A week ago...
A Solitaire Boeing 737-300 on behalf of Royal Wings on behalf of Royal Jordanian, registration JY-SOA performing flight RJ-6888 from Amman to Aqaba (Jordan) with 126 people on board, landed on Aqaba's runway 19 at about 08:25L (05:25Z) but touched down in the second half of the runway only and went off past the end of the runway and came to a stop on soft ground about 200 meters past the runway end
---------- ADS -----------
 
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by pelmet »

FICU wrote:Just because we aren't seeing hull losses doesn't mean the skies are safe. Too many close calls... this is a good one: would you feel safe as a pax going 600 feet off the end of a 9000 foot runway?

A week ago...
A Solitaire Boeing 737-300 on behalf of Royal Wings on behalf of Royal Jordanian, registration JY-SOA performing flight RJ-6888 from Amman to Aqaba (Jordan) with 126 people on board, landed on Aqaba's runway 19 at about 08:25L (05:25Z) but touched down in the second half of the runway only and went off past the end of the runway and came to a stop on soft ground about 200 meters past the runway end
The Sky Is Falling...The Sky Is Falling.

How many pedestrians were run over by cars on the same day? How many bathtub injuries? How many murders? Would you feel safe crossing the street? The same people who walk around in an electrical storm without worry, then worry about airline disasters.
---------- ADS -----------
 
goingnowherefast
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1947
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:24 am

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by goingnowherefast »

FICU wrote:Just because we aren't seeing hull losses doesn't mean the skies are safe. Too many close calls... this is a good one: would you feel safe as a pax going 600 feet off the end of a 9000 foot runway?

A week ago...
A Solitaire Boeing 737-300 on behalf of Royal Wings on behalf of Royal Jordanian, registration JY-SOA performing flight RJ-6888 from Amman to Aqaba (Jordan) with 126 people on board, landed on Aqaba's runway 19 at about 08:25L (05:25Z) but touched down in the second half of the runway only and went off past the end of the runway and came to a stop on soft ground about 200 meters past the runway end
I'd feel safer on that plane than I would have on Air Canada 621 on July 5th 1970. Wiki link
---------- ADS -----------
 
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by pelmet »

FICU wrote:Emirates... This... http://avherald.com/h?article=4aec259b&opt=0

Who do you feel safe to fly on these days?
Unfortunately, despite having a subscription to Flight International magazine, I can't seem to get articles on the internet from their site. But....

Their July 25-31 issue had their usual safety statistics and an article about the accident rate for passenger airliners in the first half of 2017. This not only includes jets but turboprops and piston airliners. In the first 6 months in the entire world, there were a total of.......

......4 passenger fatalities. All from a single accident of a Britten-Norman Islander in Zimbabwe.

So who do I feel safe to fly on these days? just about anybody. I suppose carriers from certain areas are higher risk but the system is so safe, that overall.....nobody dies anymore. At least for now.

We know there will be more accidents but the chances of being killed may soon approach the level of being struck by lightning. Or maybe it is safer than that now.
---------- ADS -----------
 
TG
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2090
Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2004 11:32 am
Location: Around

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by TG »

goingnowherefast wrote:
FICU wrote:Just because we aren't seeing hull losses doesn't mean the skies are safe. Too many close calls... this is a good one: would you feel safe as a pax going 600 feet off the end of a 9000 foot runway?

A week ago...
A Solitaire Boeing 737-300 on behalf of Royal Wings on behalf of Royal Jordanian, registration JY-SOA performing flight RJ-6888 from Amman to Aqaba (Jordan) with 126 people on board, landed on Aqaba's runway 19 at about 08:25L (05:25Z) but touched down in the second half of the runway only and went off past the end of the runway and came to a stop on soft ground about 200 meters past the runway end
I'd feel safer on that plane than I would have on Air Canada 621 on July 5th 1970. Wiki link
Air France would suite your boots then. I've read they are pretty good with overruns too.

Seriously, digging an almost 47 years old nasty crash (aren't they all!?) Versus an overrun makes for a pretty weak argument.
You are implying that you would rather fly on some obscure local carriers in a third word country instead of Air Canada.


Sure.....
---------- ADS -----------
 
goingnowherefast
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1947
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:24 am

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by goingnowherefast »

TG wrote: Seriously, digging an almost 47 years old nasty crash (aren't they all!?) Versus an overrun makes for a pretty weak argument.
You are implying that you would rather fly on some obscure local carriers in a third word country instead of Air Canada.
Sure.....
I feel safer on a obscure airline today than a national airline 50 years ago. My point is that we're looking at a couple overruns and no/minor injuries when the norm used to be several catastrophic crashes and many fatalities. I'm pointing out that the trend and statistics are contrary to the theme of this thread.

Pelmet said it well:
pelmet wrote:In the first 6 months in the entire world, there were a total of.......

......4 passenger fatalities. All from a single accident of a Britten-Norman Islander in Zimbabwe.

So who do I feel safe to fly on these days? just about anybody. I suppose carriers from certain areas are higher risk but the system is so safe, that overall.....nobody dies anymore. At least for now.
---------- ADS -----------
 
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Things Are Going to Get Ugly in the Next Decade of Commercial Aviation...

Post by pelmet »

goingnowherefast wrote:
TG wrote: Seriously, digging an almost 47 years old nasty crash (aren't they all!?) Versus an overrun makes for a pretty weak argument.
You are implying that you would rather fly on some obscure local carriers in a third word country instead of Air Canada.
Sure.....
I feel safer on a obscure airline today than a national airline 50 years ago. My point is that we're looking at a couple overruns and no/minor injuries when the norm used to be several catastrophic crashes and many fatalities. I'm pointing out that the trend and statistics are contrary to the theme of this thread.

Pelmet said it well:
pelmet wrote:In the first 6 months in the entire world, there were a total of.......

......4 passenger fatalities. All from a single accident of a Britten-Norman Islander in Zimbabwe.

So who do I feel safe to fly on these days? just about anybody. I suppose carriers from certain areas are higher risk but the system is so safe, that overall.....nobody dies anymore. At least for now.
Actually, you better make it the first nine months plus 10 days with that statistic.

Here is an accident list for the year.....

https://aviation-safety.net/database/db ... ?Year=2017

This thread is actually an excellent example for everybody, especially the young ones out there(whether it comes to aviation or subjects in general) on how you really need to be able to sort through all the BS out there in order to get to the harsh truth or just reality in general. We see it in all kinds of controversial subjects and on a non-controversial subject as well like this one, whether due to ignorance or political motive, people and supposedly credible sources such as the media put forth an agenda to influence.

Using a couple of general terms......A lot of people fall for these ideas and there can be a human tendency to believe the "worst" when in fact the worst is not anywhere close to the case. Likewise, people can have a tendency to believe the "best"(and ignore the harsh truth) when in fact the best is nowhere near the case either.

Sticking to aviation.... as pilots, we need to try to confirm as best we can what we are hearing and reading about subjects, of which there are a wide variety on this forum. There is a lot of bad information out there to accompany the large amount of good information. And the bad information may come from someone that you would expect to know better.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Post Reply

Return to “Accidents, Incidents & Overdue Aircraft”