Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

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cncpc
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#126 Post by cncpc » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:35 pm

Notapilot1 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:28 pm
Is Revelstoke Airport unmanned?
If you mean communications, yes. I think Dave and Ed from Silvertip manage the airport.
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pdw
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#127 Post by pdw » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:54 pm

FYI Notapilot:
The simple Azimuth Card technique works for every witness sighting of a moving object above, for the most reliable numbers in the abscence of tracking data. What direction (facing) when suddenly looking over the shoulder and seeing/hearing etc etc. Accurate positioning, speed data, direction(s) and time-data comes clearer when using the carefully filled-in info. Experienced searchers can always revisit a proper detail of that data for other/better calculation, when knowing it is documented as correctly as possible.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#128 Post by dazednconfused » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:09 pm

Notapilot1 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:16 am
Thanks, dazednconfused. If you look at the map I posted previously it shows that the tower at Fidelity Mountain was pinged at 10:32 and 10:36.
Sorry, my fault. I did not realize there were cell phone pings at Fidelity into the evening.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#129 Post by Notapilot1 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:32 pm

Quite alright, there is a lot of information being provided.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#130 Post by cncpc » Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:48 pm

Notapilot1 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:32 pm
Quite alright, there is a lot of information being provided.
Small update. It seems that it is not known what tower pinged or received reply around 10:30. Fidelity tower received a connection with one of the phones on board at a time when the aircraft was likely still in the air.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#131 Post by CpnCrunch » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:05 pm

cncpc wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:48 pm
Small update. It seems that it is not known what tower pinged or received reply around 10:30. Fidelity tower received a connection with one of the phones on board at a time when the aircraft was likely still in the air.
That would seem to be pretty crucial information for search and rescue.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#132 Post by cncpc » Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:08 pm

CpnCrunch wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:05 pm
cncpc wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:48 pm
Small update. It seems that it is not known what tower pinged or received reply around 10:30. Fidelity tower received a connection with one of the phones on board at a time when the aircraft was likely still in the air.
That would seem to be pretty crucial information for search and rescue.
They are aware of it.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#133 Post by anofly » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:47 pm

is there any info that indicates they had turned around and headed back towards revelstoke? man i would love to have a chat with the folks at the hut, and the snowmobilers.... Somehow i tend to think if they went by the hut,low, and ended say south of the hut somewhere, the cell would not have been picked up at 10:30 ish...
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#134 Post by pdw » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:49 pm

snowmobilers
at Arthur Canyon / Canyon Hot Springs at "3:30pm".
Wheeler Hut
(sighting)

Calculations in groundspeed places this particular sighting/location IN TIME about 16-18 minutes after that snowmobiler sighting. The time range translates to a neigbourhood of 3:47pm, then can add some distance for the turnaround, if passing somewhere overhead the WH witness before turning the opposite direction back to re-establish contact with the lost TCH (perhaps aimed more northwest or west to intercept) ie in poor vis .. or you're thinkng maybe chose to return / the reciprocal ? There's at least another 5nm/ 3min before reaching the highway westbound, ie if successfully skirting that entire inside space of the W Hut's dead-end valley(s) before negotiating the northerly path out of there again. So that is 3:51 .. or 3:52pm at that point, if that is verified somehow ..

EDIT (for Notapilot) re "conclusion":
Your doing everything in your power to find the aircraft; incredible. Those efforts make clearer that poor visibility developed around higher mountain elevations they were forced to fly if to get through the pass; and that idea has become very difficult ... and esp without information further along.
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Last edited by pdw on Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:19 am, edited 1 time in total.

Notapilot1
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#135 Post by Notapilot1 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:18 pm

So in conclusion PDW, you’re saying what exactly?
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#136 Post by crazy horse » Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:50 pm

CpnCrunch wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:09 am

I think on the day in question it was more of a low pressure system blowing in moisture from the Pacific, which will tend to generate clouds as it blows up the valleys. More dangerous as you will tend to be under the clouds, which could suddenly close up in the valleys. (I'm not a weather forecaster, so please correct me if I've got this wrong).
This is an important point.

Remember, a GFA is a forecast product (made hours in advance) and the METAR is automated.
The flow, moisture content, and winds aloft matter.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#137 Post by RatherBeFlying » Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:32 pm

There's four Alpine Club of Canada huts in Roger's Pass. Besides Wheeler, there's Sapphire Col, Asulkan and Hermit. The last three are high up and access is subject to avalanche hazard and heavy snowfall (a Roger's Pass specialty) - quite possibly nobody there on Nov 25. The ACC National office knows who, if anybody, was booked there. Parties do turn back when conditions don't allow access.

http://www.alpineclubofcanada.ca

The sharp turn North about ½ mile NW Wheeler hut ends up over a steep grade of the TCH and possibly presented a climb blocked by cloud. Turning South takes you toward the Illecillewaet and Asulkan Glaciers. Whiteout conditions over glaciers and snowfields are commonplace.

Balu Pass tops out about 6600' and cuts the corner off the zigzag. I've hiked it, but haven't flown it.

Avalanche hazard and snowpack persist well into the Spring. It could be July before the glaciers and snow fields are bare. Come May or June I'd put up posters at Wheeler hut, Canyon Hot Springs and the trailheads asking people to keep their eyes open.

Until road access to Wheeler is open, you need avalanche training and gear to go there.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#138 Post by Jagfarms » Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:31 pm

If the cell phone pinged a tower it should have gave its location if location was not turned off. If it pinged at 10:30 pm the plane should have been down at that time.

You can access the location from google timeline from any computer if you know the log in info. If you don’t know the log in info would RCMP someone be able to get it from the cell phone provider?

Also lots of apps track cell phones and i think when a phone pings it Sends your location to the app.


I cut and paste info below about google timeline.

You can see how far you travelled and the way you travelled from place to place, like walking, biking, driving, or public transportation. Whether your timeline measures distances in miles or kilometers is based on your country.

On your computer, open Google Maps
Sign in with the same Google Account you use on your mobile device.
In the top left, click Menu Menu.
Click Your timeline Timeline.
To see another day or month, at the top, click DAY.
Choose the day you’d like to view.
Tip: To see places that you've visited recently, click Menu Menu and then Your places and then Visited.

Edit your timeline
If a place is wrong on your timeline, you can edit the location and when you were there.

On your computer, go to your timeline.
Find the place you want to change on your timeline and click the Down arrow Down Arrow.
Choose the correct place or search for a place in the search box.
To edit when you were there, click the time.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#139 Post by Jagfarms » Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:41 pm

If the cell phone pinged a tower it should have gave its location if location was not turned off. If it pinged at 10:30 pm the plane should have been down at that time.

You can access the location from google timeline from any computer if you know the log in info. If you don’t know the log in info would RCMP someone be able to get it from the cell phone provider?

Also lots of apps track cell phones and i think when a phone pings it Sends your location to the app.


I cut and paste info below about google timeline.

You can see how far you travelled and the way you travelled from place to place, like walking, biking, driving, or public transportation. Whether your timeline measures distances in miles or kilometers is based on your country.

On your computer, open Google Maps
Sign in with the same Google Account you use on your mobile device.
In the top left, click Menu Menu.
Click Your timeline Timeline.
To see another day or month, at the top, click DAY.
Choose the day you’d like to view.
Tip: To see places that you've visited recently, click Menu Menu and then Your places and then Visited.

Edit your timeline
If a place is wrong on your timeline, you can edit the location and when you were there.

On your computer, go to your timeline.
Find the place you want to change on your timeline and click the Down arrow Down Arrow.
Choose the correct place or search for a place in the search box.
To edit when you were there, click the time.
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Notapilot1
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#140 Post by Notapilot1 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:20 pm

I called Asulkan and Wheeler, they couldn't release the witness information to me and had already given that info to Parks Canada. Same with the witness at Canyon Hot Springs. We were tying to get in touch with them to ask more specific questions but have so far, not been able to get their information. Tangier Road and area has been searched due to that being a logical place to put down a plane as the witness reported the plane flying very close to the tree tops. Nothing was found. Cougar Mountain is the next area to be searched as long as a helicopter can be brought back in. I believe they need a permit for this area though, so I think that's a bit of a delay.

We have tried certain things with phone tracking and gmail accounts and so far, none have worked. I will certainly pass on that information though, as anything is worth a shot. We are also waiting (3 days now) for relevant highway cam and mountain cam footage.

Drones have also been out for the last two days and we are currently waiting on footage.

I will also pass along the Illecillewaet theory as that was brought up a while back, and I do have it pinned on my map.

Thank you all.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#141 Post by waterdog » Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:40 am

Thanks for the update Notapilot1,

Keep us in the loop on how the search progresses, I cannot imagine what the family and friends are going through.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#142 Post by RatherBeFlying » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:00 pm

The ACC and Parks Canada rightly will not release names of hut users as that's private information. You might consider putting together a list of questions and asking the ACC office to forward the list to the people who were booked in the hut, who can choose to reply through the ACC office or directly to you.

Day backcountry users, if any, usually register with Parks Canada in the avalanche season.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#143 Post by anofly » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:48 pm

Did the folks at the hut see a plane? or just hear a plane? and what way was it going? i have read this all a few times and dont have that clear yet?
If the plane went by the hut once, "southbound" there is not much (other than a cell ping) to keep folks looking along the trans canada? would it not make sense if they did not hear it come back by the hut a second time, and it only went southbound by the hut , in this case the plane is south of the hut somewhere? south in that valley? or south and then tried to make it to the east? over the hills to golden?
i dont know enough about cell phone pings ,but if the cell phone is south of the hut, line of sight to the cell tower is tough.... unless its high up one of the sides, in that valley?
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#144 Post by Notapilot1 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:40 pm

The people at Wheeler just heard the plane, they didn't see it. All areas around Wheeler have been searched. We did discuss the possibility of them carrying on to Golden but to clear that next mountain, they would have had to go above 7000 feet and would have shown back up on radar.

Sorry for the lack of updates, we are still spending our every "free" minute looking into things.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#145 Post by RatherBeFlying » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:58 pm

An aircraft at 7000' in that area will not be visible to radar if there's a mountain in between. Sir Donald is over 10,000, about 800' above the glacier. Radar coverage depends on the location and elevation of the radar and the terrain between.

If the aircraft was heard at Wheeler, but not at the top of the pass, the probability increases that it remained close by or turned South. Was there any observation of the cloud cover and ceiling South of Wheeler?

That said the trees around Wheeler are impressively tall and dense. It would be difficult to spot an aircraft that fell into that kind of tree cover. Sadly many searches in BC mountains have come up empty-handed.

TCA 810 flew into Mt. Slesse moments after contact was lost on radar. It was six months before hikers happened across the wreckage.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#146 Post by burhead1 » Sun Jan 21, 2018 7:01 pm

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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#147 Post by Notapilot1 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:45 am

The photo was looked into further and turned out to be nothing of interest. I believe the search has been concluded until Spring due to the large amounts of snow that has fallen in the area.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#148 Post by pdw » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:07 pm

Notapilot1 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:45 am
The photo was looked into further and turned out to be nothing of interest.
It's good to know it was checked out, thankyou for taking time to report back here. Looking at that photo provided an idea, how futile to look for a 'needle in a haystack' and then constantly deeper snow accumulation ...
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#149 Post by CpnCrunch » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:06 pm

pdw wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:07 pm

It's good to know it was checked out, thankyou for taking time to report back here. Looking at that photo provided an idea, how futile to look for a 'needle in a haystack' and then constantly deeper snow accumulation ...
There were thousands of drone photos to go through, so it definitely was a needle in a haystack. Out of those photos there were a handful that looked like they might contain some wreckage, but nothing was found on the ground.

cnpc managed to get some photos from the various webcams along the highway from the time, and the weather had definitely closed in with low cloud in the Rogers Pass. It might be worth posting those photos here, just to give everyone an idea of what the weather can look like in the pass when there's only high cloud at Revelstoke.
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Re: Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

#150 Post by cncpc » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:45 pm

I will put them up tomorrow.

There is no actual evidence this aircraft ever went into the Pass. It was seen on the hill above Revelstoke on the last radar hit, but at that time,it was heading north. I know there was talk of a witness at Albert Canyon, but that witness is said to not be reliable and certainly cannot say it was that Mooney, or even the direction the aircraft was flying. Similarly, the fact that someone says they heard an airplane at Wheeler Hut doesn't mean it was this airplane, or wasn't a snowmobile up high.

There are reports of pings of cell phones after fuel exhaustion time. The phones supposedly pinged back to Fidelity Tower, about 30 miles south of the Pass Summit, and recently the same story of pings hitting a Tower around Three Valley Gap. So one of those stories isn't true, maybe both. As simple as it would seem, there is no official report of any kind of any pings that would help to locate this aircraft.

I spoke in the last few days with a Canadian living in Idaho. On the afternoon of this incident, he was snowmobiling in a group at Keystone Basin, about 30 north of Revelstoke on the Mica highway. They had stopped around 6000 feet due to heavy fog and impassible alder in the cutblocks and had stopped and built a fire. He distinctly heard the sound of an aircraft approaching, passing by very near, and then the sound slowly fading. The time was between 3:25 and 3:36, fixed by the time stamp on photographs taken of the fire at the time. The weather was good on the way up, with a ceiling of around 2000 feet, was the man's estimate. As they went up the mountain, they entered cloud base higher up, and were in thick cloud when they heard the aircraft. I asked the man if it was possible that the aircraft was not above them, but in the valley below, and now agrees that is more likely.

The time is consistent with the aircraft continuing north from the last radar hit at 3:13. Low level VFR seems quite possible and there is not really a plausible weather related accident if the flight continued up past the dam, into Valemount Arm, and to the Yellowhead and on out past Hinton, or cutoff through a couple of lower level routes about 30 south of Valemount and met up with the highway around Moose Lake. Blue River was showing something like 60 BKN and 110 OVC at that time. The next station, Edson, was reporting clear. If the aircraft crashed on this possible route, it is more likely that it would have had to do with problems of flying in the dark in mountains without night training or a rating.

Objectively, there is no evidence the aircraft has crashed. There is evidence two people are missing. Obviously, there is a strong reason to suspect the aircraft has crashed. but...

An awful lot of work was put into searching the Pass without any real evidence the aircraft ever went in there.

The weather was shite from the highway cams, but that's not to say an aircraft higher might not have had a different picture.
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