Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

[cncpc]

Based on all the information posted here, is there a possibility of some location suggestions? There seems to be a lot of “I wouldn’t have done that” but the knowledge from the posts I’ve read seems abundant. Compiling all the information; weather, winds, speed, ceilings, cell phone pings, routes, etc. Where could they be?

I have seen what areas have been searched but there’s always doubt of course, that SAR could be missing something.

Thinking like a pilot, where would you have gone?

To a hotel in Revelstoke.

[rookiepilot]

Spot, extra batteries for spot, survival kit, fully charged phone, charger, Flight plan, detailed itinerary with trusted family to back up flight plan. That's a good idea in Northern Ontario, even.

[pdw]

I am seeing a lot of great conversation here about potential location possibilities. Taking all of the environmental factors, plane make and model, experience, weather, etc into consideration is there a consensus as to where they might be? I do have more information if needed, and I feel that the knowledge base here is pertinent to recovery efforts. Experience and pilot train of thought is crucial to the efforts being made (in my opinion.)

Pilots/individuals often contribute when there is helpful information about something they might have unique experience with, ie ANYTHING that might pertain. Also might be possible to poll for logical lat/long pinpoint opinions from frequenters here that have experienced navigation through this area.

[bobm]

Not to thread drift too much...

I see a lot of conversation with respect to the SPOT. It is a great piece of equipment.

If you are thinking of buying one though, also take a look at the Garmin InReach. It has Global coverage (SPOT does not), tracks the same as the Spot, can send "canned messages" like the Spot and you can even Send and Receive text messages with it plus much more. (Post to Facebook etc.)

Just take a look to compare and decide what is best for your situation.

No, I do not own stock in the company.

Praying for a miracle.

[5x5]

Very sad, but the search has been called off. Reasonable decision but I sure feel bad for the families with no closure.

http://edmontonsun.com/news/local-news/ ... 997355e98f

[Notapilot1]

I know where they have searched, what towers were pinged, where they went off radar, how many times he has flown that route. What I’m asking is with all of the collective information, is there something missing? Something a pilot might see that’s being overlooked as far as terrain, alternate routes, etc.

Yes, I know the two people in the plane, i know the passengers daughter. So that hotel comment? That was malicious and uncalled for.

As an aside (sort of) an avalanche sensor went off at Ross Peak 43 minutes after the last radar (unsure on the exact time as of right now.)

[Notapilot1]

I am seeing a lot of great conversation here about potential location possibilities. Taking all of the environmental factors, plane make and model, experience, weather, etc into consideration is there a consensus as to where they might be? I do have more information if needed, and I feel that the knowledge base here is pertinent to recovery efforts. Experience and pilot train of thought is crucial to the efforts being made (in my opinion.)

Pilots/individuals often contribute when there is helpful information about something they might have unique experience with, ie ANYTHING that might pertain. Also might be possible to poll for logical lat/long pinpoint opinions from frequenters here that have experienced navigation through this area.

Thank you. That’s a helpful suggestion although I have no clue how to do that. Hopefully I can figure it out tomorrow morning as opposed to 1 am.

[pdw]

As an aside (sort of) an avalanche sensor went off at Ross Peak 43 minutes after the last radar (unsure on the exact time as of right now.)

An recent avalanche would have been something visible upon over flight by SAR.

40 miles past the "last radar" hit at Revelstoke does not seem quite far enough along that route to match "43 minutes" at 125mph or so, when referring to an impact vibration; unless, after "turned around", if possibly a "wrong canyon" (Diadem / previous page discussion) or "deteriorating weather/vis" (an area pilot / as quoted from early News). I don't know that much about avalanches, but if a smaller one not as visible from above is triggered .. perhaps it sometimes takes a while before it lets go or gets rolling?

Investigators/searchers will probably take into consideration what type of vibrations these sensors are capable of picking up, even an echoe of a crash-noise/soundwave from farther distance across/down the valley. It's not something to take too lightly, if no other sensors going off that day/time in the area.

[AirFrame]

If you are thinking of buying one though, also take a look at the Garmin InReach. It has Global coverage (SPOT does not), tracks the same as the Spot, can send "canned messages" like the Spot and you can even Send and Receive text messages with it plus much more. (Post to Facebook etc.)

Keep in mind the InReach is a lot more money for only a little more functionality. My SPOT has worked in southeast Asia, Europe, and North America... I've only used it in a plane in North America though.

Someone else mentioned the 10 minute spacing of the SPOT positions... Note that if you ever hit that emergency button, the position reporting ups to once every 2.5 minutes, not once every 10. You can pay extra and get 2.5 minute spacing reported on your SPOT track all the time, if you want to.

[CpnCrunch]

I know where they have searched, what towers were pinged, where they went off radar, how many times he has flown that route. What I’m asking is with all of the collective information, is there something missing? Something a pilot might see that’s being overlooked as far as terrain, alternate routes, etc.

Yes, I know the two people in the plane, i know the passengers daughter. So that hotel comment? That was malicious and uncalled for.

As an aside (sort of) an avalanche sensor went off at Ross Peak 43 minutes after the last radar (unsure on the exact time as of right now.)

Yes, Ross Peak does seem a very likely location. Was it thoroughly searched?

[Notapilot1]

Yes, apparently they searched Ross Peak and didn't see anything that would indicate an avalanche happened or any sign of a plane. Almost every logical place has been searched but we are wondering if he made it further towards Golden and maybe his phone died and didn't ping a tower out that far. It does seem strange that there is such a long period of time in between cell phone pings, surely he couldn't have been in the air for that long.

Would you need to come into Golden from the North to the landing strip?

Is there anywhere else along the route where they could have experienced trouble, and or made a wrong turn or miscalculation?

Thank you so much for the valuable insight and assistance.

[pdw]

Would you need to come into Golden from the North to the landing strip?

Landing runway 140 means the final approach to the "landing strip" is made from the North. The single runway is aligned 320/140, and since wind is still 3kts South at 4pm NOV25 after stronger South earlier that afternoon ... more-than-likely a southbound landing.

[cncpc]

Yes, I know the two people in the plane, i know the passengers daughter. So that hotel comment? That was malicious and uncalled for.

I don't mean to open up some dispute in the midst of this sad and serious thread. However, my comment about a hotel in Revelstoke was neither malicious or uncalled for. It simply reflected cold and practical reality in a thread which is read by pilots, some of them 200 hour or less pilots from the flatlands who may one day come into our BC mountains, and attempt a flight like this on a day like it was. I have spent decades flying in those mountains, in that type of weather. I have been in many hotels that I had never heard of before or planned to be at the start of a flight. That includes hotels in Revelstoke, Golden, and Canmore. I am alive, everyone who ever got into an aircraft with me is alive and unharmed.

You asked us what would we have done. I would have gone to a hotel in Revelstoke. If that had happened here, this thread wouldn't exist. Families wouldn't be wondering where these two young people are, three children would not be missing their mother. My response was the best possible answer to your question. It was called for. To answer it in any other way, to speculate in a way that would lead other inexperienced pilots to think that trying to make it through was a wise choice, would be leading young and inexperienced pilots to the same mistake.

[CpnCrunch]

Yes, apparently they searched Ross Peak and didn't see anything that would indicate an avalanche happened or any sign of a plane. Almost every logical place has been searched but we are wondering if he made it further towards Golden and maybe his phone died and didn't ping a tower out that far. It does seem strange that there is such a long period of time in between cell phone pings, surely he couldn't have been in the air for that long.

Would you need to come into Golden from the North to the landing strip?

Is there anywhere else along the route where they could have experienced trouble, and or made a wrong turn or miscalculation?

Thank you so much for the valuable insight and assistance.

I think their only reasonable route was to follow the TC highway and if landing at Golden come from the North (even if landing in the other direction due to wind). I don't know if there was any evidence they were going to land there though. Even if not landing there, they would almost certainly have followed the highway to the Columbia Valley. There are a few shortcuts, but it wouldn't be reasonable to use any shortcuts below 7000ft, as I don't think any of the valleys are low enough and there's too much danger of going up the wrong one. However it's certainly possible that they did go up a wrong valley, either due to an error or by design.

There's no way they would still be in the air there after 10pm without refueling, so the ping is probably from the crash site (if indeed it was from that time). Sometimes if you are in an area with very poor service you can occasionally get one bar.

If it was my family, I would be contacting CASARA and/or chartering a helicoper to thoroughly scour that area (Ross Peak and where the cellphone ping was from) below 500ft AGL. Realistically, if they are alive, they're unlikely to last much longer than a few more days.

[beaverbob]

I wish NavCanada had not closed the weather offices and flight service stations to personal visits and briefings.
Many time when I was a young pilot the briefer would advise me what to expect in the passes and give me that extra information one cannot find in a Kiosk somewhere or off a computer weather service.
Perhaps a face to face or telephone briefing from a good specialist might have been enough to change their mind about flying.
It absolutely disgusts me that we can not open the door to FSS but can go to a computer Kiosk and make it all on your own.
Bob

[CpnCrunch]

I wish NavCanada had not closed the weather offices and flight service stations to personal visits and briefings.
Many time when I was a young pilot the briefer would advise me what to expect in the passes and give me that extra information one cannot find in a Kiosk somewhere or off a computer weather service.
Perhaps a face to face or telephone briefing from a good specialist might have been enough to change their mind about flying.
It absolutely disgusts me that we can not open the door to FSS but can go to a computer Kiosk and make it all on your own.
Bob

The VFR route forecast is very useful, but it just seems to be for the Fraser Canyon and Hope-Princeton routes, and even that is only available from Oct to Mar. Perhaps they need something similar for Rogers Pass. There doesn't appear to be any webcam or weather station in Rogers Pass from what I can tell (other than the highway cams, which aren't much good for pilots).

[beaverbob]

[/quote]

The VFR route forecast is very useful, but it just seems to be for the Fraser Canyon and Hope-Princeton routes, and even that is only available from Oct to Mar. Perhaps they need something similar for Rogers Pass. There doesn't appear to be any webcam or weather station in Rogers Pass from what I can tell (other than the highway cams, which aren't much good for pilots).
[/quote]

That brings me back to open FSS. A briefer could give that extra information that could influence a young pilot for a good decision.
Bob

[Notapilot1]

I have just read some incredibly helpful information, thank you! Regarding Wheeler Hut, a plane I was heard in that area. We believe Ross Peak area will be given a closer look given the trifecta of information (cell phone pings, avalanche beacon, and wheeler hut.)

We are also now wondering if he made it further towards Golden but the timeline on that seems a little iffy.

(Hotel comment - I get where you're coming from but you don't have all the information either and at this exact moment, in this situation, it's not helping anything.)

Thank you all so much!

[lookingforknowledge]

In regards to the hotel comment, yes it may seem insensitive, but that comment could also reflect that the pilot may have felt the same thing and could have chosen to turn back.

[cncpc]

I have just read some incredibly helpful information, thank you! Regarding Wheeler Hut, a plane I was heard in that area. We believe Ross Peak area will be given a closer look given the trifecta of information (cell phone pings, avalanche beacon, and wheeler hut.)

We are also now wondering if he made it further towards Golden but the timeline on that seems a little iffy.

(Hotel comment - I get where you're coming from but you don't have all the information either and at this exact moment, in this situation, it's not helping anything.)

Thank you all so much!

Good luck with your efforts.