PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

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C.W.E.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#26 Post by C.W.E. » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:11 pm

This being Canada what are the odds we will ever know what caused it?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#27 Post by Chuck Finley » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:48 pm

PDW must have been born on a variable tailwind full moon night.

Come to think of it, he must be the Variable Tailwind O.G.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#28 Post by GyvAir » Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:57 pm

C.W.E. wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:11 pm
This being Canada what are the odds we will ever know what caused it?
I doubt the TSB is going to invest any manpower in this one.
I suspect that the people involved have a pretty good idea what happened and why by now. Perhaps they will provide the information for an update to the CADORS, so that light twins can once again be operated off long runways in negligible winds with reasonable confidence.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#29 Post by GyvAir » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:01 pm

Chuck Finley wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:48 pm
PDW must have been born on a variable tailwind full moon night.

Come to think of it, he must be the Variable Tailwind O.G.
Original Gangster?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#30 Post by rookiepilot » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:36 pm

I'll take a stab at it, for fun.

Props were set coarse instead of where they should have been. Or mixture. Yeah, dumb guess, but top it then --- :mrgreen:
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#31 Post by Illya Kuryakin » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:56 pm

rookiepilot wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:36 pm
I'll take a stab at it, for fun.

Props were set coarse instead of where they should have been. Or mixture. Yeah, dumb guess, but top it then --- :mrgreen:
Set your props for climb RPM for takeoff (long runway, nice day) sometime. You will notice very little difference in runway used! And, it's quieter.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#32 Post by pdw » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:42 pm

GyvAir wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#33 Post by rookiepilot » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:56 pm

pdw wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:42 pm
GyvAir wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
Any sign of a 20 knot tailwind?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#34 Post by Illya Kuryakin » Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:34 pm

Could have been....forgot the log book...reject...
Too simple? Not everything is life n death.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#35 Post by GyvAir » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:33 pm

pdw wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:42 pm
GyvAir wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
Yep. Reliable weather data, sourced right smack next door the "Weeds House Cannabis Complex". Given that, I guess it could have been skewing the data by registering some localized highs...
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#36 Post by pdw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:29 am

LOL
rookiepilot wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:56 pm
pdw wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:42 pm
GyvAir wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm
Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
Any sign of a 20 knot tailwind?
No the " 20 knot " can be south .. associated with the moments of warmest temp of the day as well as the largest dewpoint spread; in checking thoroughly is definitely NOT showing out of the EAST (with any strength at least). Up ahead at Vancouver Int the 2pm METAR has recorded 12G20 SW, and a few madis-stations are showing that carried east toward Pitt .. showing up in between the described incident location and CYVR a few times just ahead of this incident (which seems to line-up .. timewise).

Unfortunately CWNN is well east of the departure end of rwy 26, and well out of the picture for the relevant on-runway accuracy needed here for something like that; the described incident location is 2 miles West of this reporting station (also surrounded by large factory buildings / not in the middle of things). Is it possible this station wouldn't represent 100V170 or 80V180 if it surfaced ?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#37 Post by Trematode » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:02 pm

pdw has been (brilliantly) trolling these forums for 6 years now. Amazing.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#38 Post by pdw » Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:27 pm

CYVR .. SSW 12G20kt

Abbotsford .. South 11G16kt
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#39 Post by pdw » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:33 am

rookiepilot wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:51 pm
And YPK is no big deal at all. Long, wide runway, no terrain.
I was under the impression that an xxxVyyy with 15-20kts involved on occasion can seriously influence an aircraft in the open runway area (esp south/southeast of the LO near the mountains) esp by surprise, not expecting. Isn't that why they are in there .. in those METARS ? Or .. why are they in there ? There were more than just a few of those around to sample on that day .. well ahead of this incident .. in YCD 210V360 ,YVR 08V180, ...

Pelmet, if we are worried about accurate dissemination of info, isn't it also wise to disclaim what some of those symbols actually mean and why they are in there? I believe even an AUTO issues them ...

EDIT:
GyvAir, I don't think CWMM auto issues those (so won't know if happened/happening) even if there was veering in between the METARs 2-3pm . A lot of these showing up at other "official" airport wx stns north of there that day. The nearest madis stations few miles SW of Pitt have the accurrate temps (highest temps ahead of 2:45pm 15-16C) yet wind-indicators not reporting at all.

EDIT 2:

I'm pretty sure LLWS could be passing just high enough over the town not to be registering between the buildings there (for the two applicable CWMM metars before / after). IMO strong South simply could drop LLow enough in the open area there on the runway (mid-airport/wide-unobstructed .. where no recording) where the incident occurs out in the clear at rotation about 2km or more away. IMO .. it's potentially too far from the CWMM recording devices between those immense buildings for that particular strong "South" to necessarily have registered there (like at Abbostsford SE 18nm 2-3pm or WEST 17nm at CYVR 2pm).
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#40 Post by GyvAir » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:29 pm

pdw wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:33 am
rookiepilot wrote:
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:51 pm
And YPK is no big deal at all. Long, wide runway, no terrain.
I was under the impression that an xxxVyyy with 15-20kts involved on occasion can seriously influence an aircraft in the open runway area (esp south/southeast of the LO near the mountains) esp by surprise, not expecting. Isn't that why they are in there .. in those METARS ? Or .. why are they in there ? There were more than just a few of those around to sample on that day .. well ahead of this incident .. in YCD 210V360 ,YVR 08V180, ABB , ORS ...

Pelmet, if we are worried about accurate dissemination of info, isn't it also wise to disclaim what some of those symbols actually mean and why they are in there? I believe even an AUTO issues them (BLI i think it was) ...
You want to see that rogue ghost wind so badly that you're making stuff up now?
It's interesting that you discount weather recorded at a certified weather station half a runway length away from the start of the takeoff roll as being irrelevant, but you'll comb through weather details from stations 50 miles away in all directions for evidence to support what you want to believe happened?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#41 Post by pdw » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:07 pm

CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#42 Post by rookiepilot » Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:17 pm

pdw wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:07 pm
CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...
LLWS IS reported by stations. Show me one station where that is reported.

Please.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#43 Post by GyvAir » Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:52 pm

pdw wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:07 pm
CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...
Look at the wind speeds that went with all those dreaded variable direction winds. The wind was so light most of the day over much of the region that it couldn't decide which way it wasn't going to blow. Not much in the way of gusting reported, either.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#44 Post by rookiepilot » Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:43 am

GyvAir wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:52 pm
pdw wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:07 pm
CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...
Look at the wind speeds that went with all those dreaded variable direction winds. The wind was so light most of the day over much of the region that it couldn't decide which way it wasn't going to blow. Not much in the way of gusting reported, either.
Where is this low level windshear?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#45 Post by pdw » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:03 am

Just above (Low Level .. as the naming suggests) except that over any wide open areas like airports, without any obstructions, it drops Lower ... because over flat areas can force cool retreating air out of the way so easily. IMO the timing (YVR 2pm and Abbotford 2-3pm) .. still seems to work for that.

One of the points that is brought up, .. where is the actual anomometer located to sense/record a mid-runway LLWS in progress on this field ?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#46 Post by justwork » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:07 am

PDW is hitting home runs again. Christ.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#47 Post by AuxBatOn » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:22 am

pdw wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:03 am
Just above (Low Level .. as the naming suggests) except that over any wide open areas like airports, without any obstructions, it drops Lower ... because over flat areas can force cool retreating air out of the way so easily. IMO the timing (YVR 2pm and Abbotford 2-3pm) .. still seems to work for that.

One of the points that is brought up, .. where is the actual anomometer located to sense/record a mid-runway LLWS in progress on this field ?
So, there is some obscure LLWS present throughout lower mainland that day but none of the station reported it?

I ask you, for the second time at least, what kind of aviation experience do you actually have?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#48 Post by Zaibatsu » Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:12 am

LLWS I can deal with. It’s those variable tailwinds that can jump up and bite you.

They did the right thing by aborting. You practically have an inflight emergency every time you take a battered flight school twin into the air in calm winds.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#49 Post by B208 » Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:20 am

I wonder if C of G played a role. The Seneca is pretty nose heavy with only a student + instructor on board. I remember that we used to put a considerable amount of lead shot in the rear baggage compartment as ballast to compensate for this. Even then, the aircraft took a fair bit of back pressure to rotate.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

#50 Post by Cliff Jumper » Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:35 pm

Private apiary located near the Baynes/Ford, subgenus APIS - if not cerana. Nearby-Aft flowing leeward convective activity CAN cause agitation and cumulative up drift (lower if not negated). If the crew unfamiliar with installation, (READ lack-of-expectation-bias) considered the sum it may have become apparent that the fore-throttle un-friction slope was declining. THERE WAS NO CHOICE, in split-second forethought to re-stow the aggressor and force-ful transverse asbestos based de-thrust. --No choice--. Seems easy in past view.
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