Air Tindi Flight Missing

[frozen solid]

If the plane was found at the Northwest end of Marian Lake, as reported on CBC, there is a ridge there, with the highest point on the VNC shown as 971', which is about 400 feet higher than the water. You can't tell by looking at the map but it looks like an escarpment, which one would cross close to a right angle on the way to Wha'ti.

I'm not going to speculate about what they were doing down there, but I have flown that route in MVFR conditions on floats, and the ridge is something to look out for.

[lownslow]

That's why I will wait for the trained people with the actual information to give me the cause.

Unfortunately those folks can often be biased.

[C.W.E.]

Unfortunately those folks can often be biased.

Yes and the reports can be vague enough to make it difficult to really understand why these accidents happen, they hope enough pilots are ignorant of the subject for their report to look legitimate.

Does anyone here know if that flight filed an IFR flight plan?

[joshiscool26]

I had the pleasure of knowing both of the pilots. Both extrodinary men, amazing and SAFE pilots. I know Will would have never descended below a minimum altitude unless he was in VMC so I’m confident that it would not have been CFIT. Neither of the guys were cowboys. Its tough right now not knowing what exactly happened to the plane and a lot of people are scratching their heads as to how this happened but for now all we can do is wait for the TSB to do their thing. In the mean time if you guys feel like helping swing by gofundme and help support their families.
https://www.gofundme.com/memorial-for-zach-mckillop
https://ca.gofundme.com/in-memory-of-will-hayworth

[Illya Kuryakin]

Something like this can be easily caused by an erroneous altimeter setting. A 310 hit the ground near Cat Lake several years ago for just this reason. Every morning after I spark up the beast, I set set field elevation before I even "check in" for the numbers with FSS. Sounds pretty basic, but pilots have been known to miss an even 1000 foot error. Not saying this happened......probably didn't.....but it would certainly do it.
Take it for what it's worth, but I always do this, and there's a big probability I've been doing this longer than you.
Illya

[Daniel Cooper]

They may have been VFR when they descended but anyone that's been over a frozen lake in the winter while it's snowing knows it can be VFR and suddenly you don't even know which way is up. Hitting a 400 foot ridge on the other side of a lake during potential whiteout conditions definitely suggests CFIT as the cause.

[iflyforpie]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

[Illya Kuryakin]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

I always look at these things and try to figure out some causes. As in, let's come up with ideas so the next guy won't do it. As in, why were they low enough to hit something over 25 miles out? Not a great idea to be anywhere near that low, that far back on a VMC day. The guys knew the neighbourhood. That's why I'm thinking altimeter setting. Was there a big pressure change since the last time the plane flew?
Illya

[J31]

Does anyone here know if that flight filed an IFR flight plan?

They may have had an IFR clearance out of YZF controlled airspace. However where they were found and the Whati (lac La Martre) is uncontrolled airspace below 18000 ft.

I do not know present practice but in the past one would likely operate on a flight note and get a IFR clearance out of YZF. Once clear of controlled airspace ATC would terminate the IFR and you would continue on the note.

As the approach to Whati is wholly in uncontrolled airspace no clearance is required.

[C.W.E.]

They may have had an IFR clearance out of YZF controlled airspace. However where they were found and the Wha Ti (lac La Martre) is uncontrolled airspace below 18000 ft.

I do not know present practice but in the past one would likely operate on a flight note and get a IFR clearance out of YZF. Once clear of controlled airspace ATC would terminate the IFR and you would continue on the note.

As the approach to Wha Ti is wholly in uncontrolled airspace no clearance is required.

Yes it has been like that for decades and it leaves how you do it to the pilots based on what they find en- route.

[Roadrunnersmother]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

No approach ban at Whati. No weather obs either.

[iflyforpie]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

I always look at these things and try to figure out some causes. As in, let's come up with ideas so the next guy won't do it. As in, why were they low enough to hit something over 25 miles out? Not a great idea to be anywhere near that low, that far back on a VMC day. The guys knew the neighbourhood. That's why I'm thinking altimeter setting. Was there a big pressure change since the last time the plane flew?
Illya

Well we have had some significant dry arctic highs over most of the country which has made altimeter settings approach 31.00” and stacks of isobars over the GFA. It’s quite possible that 30.76” was set read back “76 set and cross checked” on two or three altimeters only looking at the 100s hand or last digits.

[iflyforpie]

I always set field elevation as well.

The problem is, it isn’t really on profile with a normal decent, they crashed outside of the 25 mile safe, and visibility was a mile and ceiling was 1600 feet. They were right on approach ban—not exactly the conditions any informed crew goes looking to find an early sucker hole and dive and drive.

No approach ban at Whati. No weather obs either.

Sorry.. I misread the YZF METAR thinking it was Whati.

[co-joe]

Co-Joe: but realistically the 100 nm safe is higher because of the 11 800 AMA for rocks 180 nm west of there,

That's why I will wait for the trained people with the actual information to give me the cause...maybe a review of a CAP GEN is in order.

You do see that I made a mistake in typing and went back and changed it, but hey good for you for taking a quote of a quote of a quote, instead of quoting the original post that I changed and using it against me. What I meant was that the 100 nm safe is high due to terrain quite a ways to the west, not along their route.

[Roadrunnersmother]

I had the pleasure of knowing both of the pilots. Both extrodinary men, amazing and SAFE pilots. I know Will would have never descended below a minimum altitude unless he was in VMC so I’m confident that it would not have been CFIT. Neither of the guys were cowboys. Its tough right now not knowing what exactly happened to the plane and a lot of people are scratching their heads as to how this happened but for now all we can do is wait for the TSB to do their thing. In the mean time if you guys feel like helping swing by gofundme and help support their families.
https://www.gofundme.com/memorial-for-zach-mckillop
https://ca.gofundme.com/in-memory-of-will-hayworth

I don't think you know these guys as well as you think.

[shimmydampner]

The “cause” is simple. Descended below a published altitude IMC.

Are you willing to stake your "reputation" on that.

[Illya Kuryakin]

The “cause” is simple. Descended below a published altitude IMC.

Are you willing to stake your "reputation" on that.

Well Shimmy, if they hadn't descended below a published altitude, they wouldn't have hit the ground. What is your point?

[goingnowherefast]

That's a pretty pointless statement.

[C.W.E.]

Well Shimmy, if they hadn't descended below a published altitude, they wouldn't have hit the ground. What is your point?

I am trying to come up with an explanation that would cause someone to hit the ground if you did not descend below a published altitude.....

...as soon as I find one I will get right back here and share it with you all. ...

But then you and I don't really know jack shit about flying do we Illya?

[Cliff Jumper]

But then you and I don't really know jack shit about flying do we Illya?

Well, as both you and Ilya know, being the experienced and extremely knowledgeable aviators that you are, the cause of any accident isn't WHAT happened, but WHY it happened.