Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

[PilotDAR]

The news reports that the flight was planned Buttonville to Quebec City. For that, any of us would have departed full tanks. Full tanks & full seats in a Cherokee Six does not allow much room for handling errors. If, when in poor visibility, he lost control, the plane would build up speed very quickly.

Our flight training and aviation promotion systems fail to present new pilots with enough real world wisdom to scare them into better decision making. And, having "another couple" aboard increases the pressure to continue, when on your own, or with just your family, you might just stay the night, and continue the next morning.

[pelmet]

The system also failed him by not giving him the tools to make that choice to delay until truly good VFR and day light. It is likely a CFIT or disorientation and lose of control due to black hole. It looks like end of cival twilight was 17:02

Not sure what specific failure, from a weather point of view, there was.

There would have been weather reports and forecasts for Buttonville, Oshawa, Trenton, and Kingston along with a GFA. Assuming they were accurate, it seems like more than enough info to make a well-informed decision.

Looks like marginal conditions with low light and low experience.

[Heliian]

Most recent update, 4 adults and 3 children. Their intended destination was Kingston, 6 km from the airport is where the impact was. At that distance, he should have had a clear shot. Tsb on scene.

A terrible tragedy for the families, my condolences.

[photofly]

There's no weather forecast or observation available at Buttonville, but CYTZ and CYYZ were obviously available.

Let's sum up the risk factors involved in this flight:

*an inexperienced pilot
*in a new-to-him (six months) aircraft
*marginal weather (at best)
*at night
*with limited night flight time (only 5 hours night time required for US PPL, no night rating)
*no instrument rating
*with wife on board
*with all three children on board
*with guests on board
*with a fully loaded aircraft
*in a foreign country
*on a route he'd never flown before

By the way, it wasn't a Saratoga - it was a Cherokee 6 - fixed gear. They have higher useful loads:
https://airplanehub.com/listing/airplane/69

[PilotDAR]

Let's add one more important direct risk factor to that list:

A pilot who may have had little or no experience flying in winter freezing conditions.

Then the reality that that many risk factors simply sum to be additional risk, just because there are so many risk factors for that flight!

Every pilot is responsible for balancing risk. It sounds silly, but sometimes a pilot should actually do a written risk analysis of a flight. I was flying as an observer with a government (not Canada) flight operation many years ago. Every flight they flew had a written risk analysis prepared before the flight, with a copy taken on the flight, and a copy left at dispatch. There's something to that....

[C.W.E.]

I was flying as an observer with a government (not Canada) flight operation many years ago. Every flight they flew had a written risk analysis prepared before the flight, with a copy taken on the flight, and a copy left at dispatch. There's something to that....

I agree, it is well worth the time to do it.

[Illya Kuryakin]

I was landing at the Island on Porter last night at the time of the accident. As we descended, we broke out through a mixture of snow and rain, so I speculate the weather may not have been welcoming in the Kingston area either.

After all, Kingston always shares its weather with Toronto Island.

[CpnCrunch]

Looks like the GFA was accurate:

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=006

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

2 hours prior to that, the trowal would presumably have been right over Kingston. Not sure why anyone would fly a small plane VFR in that weather.

[rookiepilot]

I was flying as an observer with a government (not Canada) flight operation many years ago. Every flight they flew had a written risk analysis prepared before the flight, with a copy taken on the flight, and a copy left at dispatch. There's something to that....

I agree, it is well worth the time to do it.

Why this isn't specifically taught to new PPL's as part of ground school?

I recognize good instructors do this throughout training, but it seems unevenly applied.

And no, a one page chat on risk management doesn't cut it.

[photofly]

Looks like the GFA was accurate:

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=006

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

2 hours prior to that, the trowal would presumably have been right over Kingston. Not sure why anyone would fly a small plane VFR in that weather.

Holy crap!

I"m going to guess that as a US pilot he didn't have much knowledge of Canadian weather products, because nobody in their right minds would take seven people on a night VFR flight in that.

[valleyboy]

Not sure what specific failure, from a weather point of view, there was.

Just to clarify, I meant the training system not the tools you use to plan and conduct a flight. It boils down to risk assessment and decision making. Likely the main causes of tragedy in general aviation.

[Kejidog]

While this is a tragic and sad event it's the type of accident(going from conditions) that pisses me off and it's very upsetting. It was totally preventable and bad decision making of a low time pilot took several lives. The system also failed him by not giving him the tools to make that choice to delay until truly good VFR and day light. It is likely a CFIT or disorientation and lose of control due to black hole. It looks like end of cival twilight was 17:02

I do not think it was a “failure” of any system or any lack of training. Taking the responsibility for 6 lives plus your own in a 6 seat airplane in marginal weather is not “fixed” by lessons. It is judgement pure and simple. We were all low time pilots and we lived through it i as a 400 h private pilot with my own plane have been in the same go/no go situation. Is my life or my kids worth the price of losing a hotel reservation? You bet it is. And trying to fix a “system” that THOUSANDS of pilots have operated under for one person is a stupid solution.

[valleyboy]

Very well but how did you learn to make your decisions. My point is that the there is very little attention paid to the most important part of being a pilot. Type "A" personalities have problems dealing with the go or no go scenario. Obviously some kind of agenda he was sticking to, we will likely never know but why would you leave at that time of the day in that wx and be VFR. Something lacking there. They teach all the regulations and such during training but I have not seen anything on human Factors until advanced training. I knew a guy who never got an instrument rating but flew under IMC as long as wx was good at both ends. He used his autopilot to fly instruments and climb up on top in uncontrolled airspace. He survived but left quite a bit of twisted metal behind him with more than one incident. It seems to me that even more low time pilots are getting a lot of their decision making ideas by osmosis. Think back during your training, did you as a pilot trainee ever cancel a training flight because of conditions or was it the school calling the shots. You build a little time under their control and then you purchase you own aircraft. It's all on you now and in my mind most general aviation flyers should be "fair wx flyers" and achieve the level they wish to take their passion. If you just want to puddle jump in a cub then stick to good wx and if you want high performance and IFR get the training but still don't mess with wx. and certainly consider passengers. I've seen several accidents close to me and lost several people that were friends and a acquaintances and all accidents were because of pilot error and human factors. That is nothing new and percentages are getting bigger because of aircraft reliability. There H has been a few small plane accidents thus year and yes some with high time pilots. Just shows decision making and human factors is not about logged hours completely.

[photofly]

Well this flight ended at about the same time as the autopilot (STEC30) would have been disengaged. Go figure.

It looks like seven victims of a severe case of get-there-itis.

[Skymark]

Haven't seen anyone ask this yet, but how do you get 7 people in a 6 seater aircraft? Youngest was 3, so all should be in seats. As it looks like they were on a trip (coming from Texas) I would also think those 7 people would also have a baggage? Seems a bit overloaded.

[shabadoo]

While this is a tragic and sad event it's the type of accident(going from conditions) that pisses me off and it's very upsetting. It was totally preventable and bad decision making of a low time pilot took several lives. The system also failed him by not giving him the tools to make that choice to delay until truly good VFR and day light. It is likely a CFIT or disorientation and lose of control due to black hole. It looks like end of cival twilight was 17:02

I do not think it was a “failure” of any system or any lack of training. Taking the responsibility for 6 lives plus your own in a 6 seat airplane in marginal weather is not “fixed” by lessons. It is judgement pure and simple. We were all low time pilots and we lived through it i as a 400 h private pilot with my own plane have been in the same go/no go situation. Is my life or my kids worth the price of losing a hotel reservation? You bet it is. And trying to fix a “system” that THOUSANDS of pilots have operated under for one person is a stupid solution.

HERE HERE!

His poor kids trusted dad to keep them safe. This is f***ing terrible in every way.

[PilotDAR]

It is judgement pure and simple. .......

His poor kids trusted dad to keep them safe.

Yes, but, low experience pilots may need to be taught what to judge, and what is safe. If a pilot lacks that understanding of what to be scared of, or cautious about, their judgement as to "safe" may be offset so as to be useless in a new situation - particularly a "southern" pilot in a winter weather situation. When things began to come unraveled, and the lack of judgement became evident, things had already progressed to the point where the pilot skills were no there to manage/recover the situation, then seven people were along for the ride.

I opine that this will turn out to be an accident with a cause similar to that of JFK junior.

This accident will be/should be a case study for student pilots in decision making, it'll be one of the few legacies that this pilot can leave the flying community.

And, in more than forty years of flying, only once did I ever put my entire family in one private plane with me - my choice.

[172_Captain]

Haven't seen anyone ask this yet, but how do you get 7 people in a 6 seater aircraft? Youngest was 3, so all should be in seats. As it looks like they were on a trip (coming from Texas) I would also think those 7 people would also have a baggage? Seems a bit overloaded.

Are you trolling? This has been discussed ad nauseam in page 1.

[anofly]

Plenty of Cherokee 6 have a jump seat, fits between two of back seats making room for 7.... its small....

[rookiepilot]

- particularly a "southern" pilot in a winter weather situation.

This accident will be/should be a case study for student pilots in decision making, it'll be one of the few legacies that this pilot can leave the flying community.

Or Canadian pilots in Florida thunderstorms, or flatlanders in Colorado......