Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

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Axial Flow
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by Axial Flow »

CBC Article

Photo from the above article appears to show trim tab located in a quite nose up position (if the data plate is what is on the underside which it appears in photo).
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by cncpc »

Axial Flow wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 3:49 pm CBC Article

Photo from the above article appears to show trim tab located in a quite nose up position (if the data plate is what is on the underside which it appears in photo).
Not discounting other possibilities, but a starting point is that the tab was moved by cables stretching in the impact sequence.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by cncpc »

Jean-Pierre wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:41 am
cncpc wrote: Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:56 pm Any insights into that speed altitude graph in the Sun?
I would say allowing the airspeed to drop below Vmca after an engine failure cause the airplane to roll over and he lose control.
CpnCrunch wrote: Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:36 am
Weather shouldn't have been a factor...there was zero wind, overcast 400ft, 2SM visibility.... minimums are 530ft
Shooting approach with weather much below minimum is never a great idea and it suggest there may be some human factor to this accident.
Jean Pierre, with respect, learn first, then know everything. That is not to say you know nothing. You are picking up things that are valuable to have in your airmanship lunchbox. Don't get me wrong. Retain that, and build on it. Here's some insights.

This pilot was a very experienced pilot. He was widely respected. I highly doubt that he would have lost control as a result of an engine failure. In this phase of flight, he surely wasn't at full throttle, the worst time for one to calve. I listened to YVR app/dep and didn't hear a Mayday or any indication of difficulty. As well, the Aerostar, with its engines so close to the fuselage, has a lesser tendency to yaw and roll with asymmetric power than other twin side by sides. Not that it won't.

Generally, you are right about shooting approaches when the weather is below minimums. Specifically, though, that is irrelevant as this accident happened 10 miles from the airport.

I hope that's been helpful. It is always good to have an interest in being aware of the factors in an accident as your life as a pilot advances.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by cncpc »

cncpc wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:25 pm
Jean-Pierre wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:41 am
cncpc wrote: Wed Dec 11, 2019 12:56 pm Any insights into that speed altitude graph in the Sun?
I would say allowing the airspeed to drop below Vmca after an engine failure cause the airplane to roll over and he lose control.
CpnCrunch wrote: Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:36 am
Weather shouldn't have been a factor...there was zero wind, overcast 400ft, 2SM visibility.... minimums are 530ft
Shooting approach with weather much below minimum is never a great idea and it suggest there may be some human factor to this accident.
Jean Pierre, with respect, learn first, then know everything. That is not to say you know nothing. You are picking up things that are valuable to have in your airmanship lunchbox. Don't get me wrong. Retain that, and build on it. Here's some insights.

This pilot was a very experienced pilot. He was widely respected. I highly doubt that he would have lost control as a result of an engine failure. In this phase of flight, he surely wasn't at full throttle, the worst time for one to calve. I listened to YVR app/dep and didn't hear a Mayday or any indication of difficulty. As well, the Aerostar, with its engines so close to the fuselage, has a lesser tendency to yaw and roll with asymmetric power than other twin side by sides. Not that it won't.

Generally, you are right about shooting approaches when the weather is below minimums. Specifically, though, that is irrelevant as this accident happened 10 miles from the airport.

I hope that's been helpful. It is always good to have an interest in being aware of the factors in an accident as your life as a pilot advances.

I know that graph looks pretty scary, but you have to remember this is the approach phase, and to be aware of what is being represented. The speed is groundspeed, not airspeed. It comes from ADS-B on Flightaware. As the video part in the Sun shows, the aircraft seems to be under control and behaving normally. The abnormality is the sharp right turn at the end. I don't see a reason for that, but...
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by cncpc »

Total instrument failure? Mayday out?

https://globalnews.ca/news/6289634/3-pe ... island-bc/
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by 16SidedOffice »

cncpc wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:25 pm I listened to YVR app/dep and didn't hear a Mayday or any indication of difficulty.
He would have been with Victoria Terminal from the handoff with Seattle Center.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by Jean-Pierre »

Sounds like a a partial panel situation with the low weather being a factor. A graveyard spiral is a spiraling dive that can happen when you become disoriented, and when you have little or no visual reference to the horizon. Unfortunately, lots of graveyard spirals end with the airplane impacting the ground in a high rate-of-descent, banked turn like in this case.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by AirFrame »

It does seem rather odd. The track shows what looks like a normal cross-country approach to Nanaimo, coming north around 4000' ish, then descending to 2000' north of Gabriola, but the speed didn't increase, so maybe the power was pulled back for the descent? That doesn't really suggest that an engine failure would quickly rolled the airplane... Especially if the type is less susceptible to it due to engine placement as written above. Maybe as it levelled off at 2000' one engine failed as the power was brought up to level the descent? After 5 hours in the air maybe not responding quick enough to the resulting roll moment?

The whole flight would have been IFR, and it was an experienced pilot... So i'd like to think the usual gotchas that might snag a low-time pilot (loss of awareness, not focusing on the instruments). Partial panel? Maybe? Wouldn't they say something to Victoria? Or maybe electrical problem... No radios to say anything on?

TSB will determine if both, one, or neither engines was developing power at impact, which should help. Not sure what else they'll be able to determine given the fire at the scene (although that is a good indication it wasn't fuel starvation, unless it hit someone's propane tank when it went in).

Alex was a regular contributor to my fuel tracking website, 100ll dot ca (spelled it out so it wouldn't automatically turn it into a link... don't want this to be an ad). Sadly that's the only way I knew him. I'm sure he'll be missed by more people for better reasons.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by cncpc »

16SidedOffice wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:58 pm
cncpc wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:25 pm I listened to YVR app/dep and didn't hear a Mayday or any indication of difficulty.
He would have been with Victoria Terminal from the handoff with Seattle Center.
Ah, thank you. There was a Mayday, couldn't find it. Would he stay with Victoria Terminal, or is there a handoff to flight service at Nanaimo? Seems like there would have to be.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by cncpc »

AirFrame wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:33 pm It does seem rather odd. The track shows what looks like a normal cross-country approach to Nanaimo, coming north around 4000' ish, then descending to 2000' north of Gabriola, but the speed didn't increase, so maybe the power was pulled back for the descent? That doesn't really suggest that an engine failure would quickly rolled the airplane... Especially if the type is less susceptible to it due to engine placement as written above. Maybe as it levelled off at 2000' one engine failed as the power was brought up to level the descent? After 5 hours in the air maybe not responding quick enough to the resulting roll moment?

The whole flight would have been IFR, and it was an experienced pilot... So i'd like to think the usual gotchas that might snag a low-time pilot (loss of awareness, not focusing on the instruments). Partial panel? Maybe? Wouldn't they say something to Victoria? Or maybe electrical problem... No radios to say anything on?

TSB will determine if both, one, or neither engines was developing power at impact, which should help. Not sure what else they'll be able to determine given the fire at the scene (although that is a good indication it wasn't fuel starvation, unless it hit someone's propane tank when it went in).

Alex was a regular contributor to my fuel tracking website, 100ll dot ca (spelled it out so it wouldn't automatically turn it into a link... don't want this to be an ad). Sadly that's the only way I knew him. I'm sure he'll be missed by more people for better reasons.
I thought I posted a link to a Global story with someone mumbling about instrument failure. Bill Yearwood appeared and says there was a distress call, but he didn't mention instrument failure. I'd say that rig had all the bells and whistles, so lots of questions arising out of that claim. It wasn't an electrical failure, as he could use the radio, and the aircraft lights were seen. It wasn't an engine failure, because that would have been in the Mayday, or whatever it was. Icing, and pitot or static heat not working? GPS gives groundspeed, and has standby gyro gear, doesn't it?

You're very right about how normal it was until that 180 reversal at the very end. Looks like the autopilot was flying a coupled approach. Until things went bad.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by bcflyer »

A few people commented about the weather being below mins for the RNAV. Was the ILS U/S at the time?
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by Jean-Pierre »

cncpc wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:56 pm GPS gives groundspeed, and has standby gyro gear, doesn't it?
It is very difficult to ignore an artificial horizon that is giving you bad info. Even for an experienced flight instructor. A lot of people carry suction cup cover in their light aircraft for this reason.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by AirFrame »

cncpc wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:56 pmI thought I posted a link to a Global story with someone mumbling about instrument failure. Bill Yearwood appeared and says there was a distress call, but he didn't mention instrument failure.
Ah, interesting, I hadn't heard about the mayday yet. Well, if things were happening fast, it's possible he became task saturated quickly and didn't give a complete picture of the situation in his call.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by CpnCrunch »

bcflyer wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 2:59 am A few people commented about the weather being below mins for the RNAV. Was the ILS U/S at the time?
It's restricted to ops spec only, due to the missed approach.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by trey kule »

Sounds like a a partial panel situation with the low weather being a factor. A graveyard spiral is a spiraling dive that can happen when you become disoriented, and when you have little or no visual reference to the horizon. Unfortunately, lots of graveyard spirals end with the airplane impacting the ground in a high rate-of-descent, banked turn like in this case.
PDW...is that you?
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by Squaretail »

https://globalnews.ca/news/6291197/pilo ... scue-work/

This article is saying he reported an instrument failure.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by CpnCrunch »

Jean-Pierre wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:05 am It is very difficult to ignore an artificial horizon that is giving you bad info. Even for an experienced flight instructor. A lot of people carry suction cup cover in their light aircraft for this reason.
It looks like the Aerostar has dual vacuum pumps, dual alternators and dual batteries. So the weak link is the AI (and any attitude-based autopilot that is fed from the AI).
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by milotron »

he had the old King KI-256 and KFC200 autopilot if I recall.

If that failed and tumbled it should have kicked off the AP before turning you into the ground, but the flight director may have been trying to correct it for a couple of seconds. Might make sense for the sharp turn and pitch up suggested in the flightradar track and the elevator trim tab.

I didn't know about the mayday call either, but heard Yearwood on the CBC talking about the possibility of instrument failure.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by Old fella »

Referencing commentary that has been posted, perhaps( in my view) this could be considered as a “task saturated” single pilot operation towards the end of a long flight, evening time approach in less than stellar wx. Sadly it ended in tragic consequences for what was regarded as well respected and experienced aviator and his companions.
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Re: Fatal Crash - Gabriola Island - Dec 10, 2019

Post by Glasnost »

trey kule wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:57 am
Sounds like a a partial panel situation with the low weather being a factor. A graveyard spiral is a spiraling dive that can happen when you become disoriented, and when you have little or no visual reference to the horizon. Unfortunately, lots of graveyard spirals end with the airplane impacting the ground in a high rate-of-descent, banked turn like in this case.
PDW...is that you?
I didn’t have to see the handle to know this was one of trey kules useless and inflammatory posts. Your mother must be so proud.
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