Pilot shortage, how long?

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amazon1234
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Pilot shortage, how long?

#1 Post by amazon1234 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:02 pm

Happy new year everyone!

How long do you think this pilot shortage thing will last? 2 years? 10 years? More? Less?
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#2 Post by North Shore » Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:20 pm

October, 2019. I'll give Brexit ~ 6 months to mess things up...
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#3 Post by tbayav8er » Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:29 pm

I don't see it coming to an end anytime soon. When you consider the amount of pilots just AC and WJ alone plan on hiring in 2018, I'm pretty sure that number far exceeds the number of people who will be getting a CPL in the next year. Good time to become a pilot, that's for sure!
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#4 Post by BE20 Driver » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:11 pm

Now that 2017 is a wrap, I'd like to know an exact number of how many ATPL's we issued in Canada last year.
I'm hearing through the grapevine that there are lots of PPL medicals being done - more than ever. Makes me wonder if the word is indeed getting out.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#5 Post by cdnpilot77 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:16 pm

However, It only takes one little glitch in the matrix for it all to stop. Those of you who were fortunate to not be a part of the “looking for work” crowd in 2008-2012 or 2001-2005, or any of the previous furlough eras, may not yet realize just how cyclical this industry is. The cycle never has a defined start or finish such as “the next round of layoffs will start in April 2020”, but there are events that become game changers like September 11, 2001. Needing things to go one or the other will likely result in bitterness and disappointment. Hopefully things stay strong!
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#6 Post by HansDietrich » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:24 pm

cdnpilot77 wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:16 pm
However, It only takes one little glitch in the matrix for it all to stop. Those of you who were fortunate to not be a part of the “looking for work” crowd in 2008-2012 or 2001-2005, or any of the previous furlough eras, may not yet realize just how cyclical this industry is. The cycle never has a defined start or finish such as “the next round of layoffs will start in April 2020”, but there are events that become game changers like September 11, 2001. Needing things to go one or the other will likely result in bitterness and disappointment. Hopefully things stay strong!
True. I'm not arguing with that. Those looking for work in 2005 and actually found work were able to afford to live in Toronto. Rent was a bit more in tune with salaries. Kids nowdays live mom and dad's basement. Ask how many F/Os in GTA still live at home.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#7 Post by 7507 » Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:26 pm

North Shore wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:20 pm
October, 2019. I'll give Brexit ~ 6 months to mess things up...
I agree , it will all end the first half of 2019.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#8 Post by leftoftrack » Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:07 pm

May 2018. Everyone who was going to move has moved, now the 703/704 world is just filling up the gaps. The resume stacks are smaller but the wages remain the same
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#9 Post by fish4life » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 am

The shortage will last until the next economic downturn, if you know when that is then short the heck out of the market and you won’t have to worry about money when it happens.

Even if word gets out that there is a shortage it will be years until pilots doing ppl medicals now have any experience.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#10 Post by mmm..bacon » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 am

fish4life wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 am
The shortage will last until the next economic downturn, if you know when that is then short the heck out of the market and you won’t have to worry about money when it happens.

Even if word gets out that there is a shortage it will be years until pilots doing ppl medicals now have any experience.
Experience? Who needs that? What are the minimums at the regionals these days, again?
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#11 Post by Rupert.Pupkin » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:20 am

mmm..bacon wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 am
fish4life wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 am
The shortage will last until the next economic downturn, if you know when that is then short the heck out of the market and you won’t have to worry about money when it happens.

Even if word gets out that there is a shortage it will be years until pilots doing ppl medicals now have any experience.
Experience? Who needs that? What are the minimums at the regionals these days, again?
Regionals are hiring 500 TT now for a Q or RJ. Plus the mix of college students...
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#12 Post by fish4life » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:29 am

Yes but the shortage is of experienced pilots, that shortage will take a while to recover from.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#13 Post by 7507 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:53 pm

Rupert.Pupkin wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:20 am
mmm..bacon wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 am
fish4life wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:34 am
The shortage will last until the next economic downturn, if you know when that is then short the heck out of the market and you won’t have to worry about money when it happens.

Even if word gets out that there is a shortage it will be years until pilots doing ppl medicals now have any experience.
Experience? Who needs that? What are the minimums at the regionals these days, again?
Regionals are hiring 500 TT now for a Q or RJ. Plus the mix of college students...

Which specific Regionals are hiring with 500 TT?
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#14 Post by Rupert.Pupkin » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:45 pm

7507 wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:53 pm
Rupert.Pupkin wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:20 am
mmm..bacon wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:44 am


Experience? Who needs that? What are the minimums at the regionals these days, again?
Regionals are hiring 500 TT now for a Q or RJ. Plus the mix of college students...

Which specific Regionals are hiring with 500 TT?
Jazz/Encore for sure. Not sure about Porter
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#15 Post by HansDietrich » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:58 pm

The only 500 hrs pilots hired at Jazz are the ones that come from the College/ University programs (and they have less hours than 500). I don't know a single pilot there that was hired "off the street" and only had 500 TT.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#16 Post by Rupert.Pupkin » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:00 pm

HansDietrich wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:58 pm
The only 500 hrs pilots hired at Jazz are the ones that come from the College/ University programs (and they have less hours than 500). I don't know a single pilot there that was hired "off the street" and only had 500 TT.
500 hour pilots are getting interviewed as we speak. People between 500-1000 have been hired, but they have multi crew time.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#17 Post by 7507 » Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:12 pm

Rupert.Pupkin wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:45 pm
7507 wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:53 pm
Rupert.Pupkin wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:20 am


Regionals are hiring 500 TT now for a Q or RJ. Plus the mix of college students...

Which specific Regionals are hiring with 500 TT?
Jazz/Encore for sure. Not sure about Porter
When you say 500 hour guys and gals hired by jazz or encore are these pilots from the college program or guys off the street?
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#18 Post by SparkyPilot » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:55 pm

Not sure how it relates to Canada specifically, but CAE has published their 10 year outlook (2017-2027):

http://www.cae.com/uploadedFiles/Conten ... Spread.pdf

In the Americas specifically, they estimate 85,000 new airline pilots will be needed and 62,000 new captains needed. Currently there are only 105,000 airline pilots working in the Americas.

I'm sure all their numbers can be taken with a grain of a salt.. but one of the statistics most interesting to me was:

"50% of all pilots flying in 2027 haven't even started to train yet."
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#19 Post by Rowdy » Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:32 am

Jazz isn't down to hiring at the 500hr level yet. I know they were proactively interviewing a few between 500 and 1000 knowing that the process can take 5-6-10 months, and someone flying will accumulate another couple hundred hours during the process. I bet you out of a class of 20, there may be 1 thats under 1000hrs and not from the college programs. MAYBE.

As someone who bids reserve, I tend to see mostly the brand new hires (seems the older captains become sick when they see a seniority number that low).. I always ask where everyone is from and how long they've been flying. Have yet to be in the seat with someone under 1000hrs.. quite a few still showing up with 3-5k who are here for a quick upgrade or their shot at AC. Maybe they're going to the jet or the Q? Doubtful as friends on both mimic my sentiments. Same with buddies at Encore.

This isn't to say that both aren't now starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel. Because there are quite a few joining both teams that aren't shall we say, hireable in any climate but the present.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#20 Post by Speedalive » Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:09 pm

Jazz representatives came to my school and said that the new hiring minimums are 500 hours if you graduate from one of the College programs that they have a partnership with and don’t get hired right after graduation through the Jazz App program (previously it was 1000). So it’s 500 for college grads or 1000 OTS.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#21 Post by Zaibatsu » Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:32 am

Give it about two years. Maybe less.

The US stock market and economy are growing at unsustainable rates and are going to be fuelled by debt with Trump’s new tax laws. All it’s going to take is one thing.. a war... an attack.. a blip in commodity prices... a financial scandal... or something like Bitcoin to crash and the house of cards will come tumbling down.

If you’re left seat at Jazz or Encore, stay there. If you’re 703, move now.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#22 Post by Black_Tusk » Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:28 pm

I have 3 friends who have started at Jazz within the last 6 months with hours ranging from 600-1000. Two are aviation college grads, one is not. Not the norm by any means but it's happening.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#23 Post by SuperchargedRS » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:44 pm

amazon1234 wrote:
Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:02 pm
Happy new year everyone!

How long do you think this pilot shortage thing will last? 2 years? 10 years? More? Less?


It will last till the pay and benifits go up to match the education, experience and responsibility of a multi thousand hour pilot in a type rating sized jet with hundreds on lives aboard.

Black_Tusk wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 12:28 pm
I have 3 friends who have started at Jazz within the last 6 months with hours ranging from 600-1000. Two are aviation college grads, one is not. Not the norm by any means but it's happening.


....or they just keep lowering the bar and saftey to be able to hire cheaper labor.

Airlines should have to say when you buy your ticket that the copilot is very inexperienced so the company could save money. Given the choice I'd wager most people would not be happy to fly with someone who's last paying job was flying a 172.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#24 Post by Black_Tusk » Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:50 pm

All the low time pilots I know hired at Jazz had mostly PIC multi time. And enough to be more than capable in any aircraft Jazz flys.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#25 Post by SuperchargedRS » Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:18 pm

Black_Tusk wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:50 pm
All the low time pilots I know hired at Jazz had mostly PIC multi time. And enough to be more than capable in any aircraft Jazz flys.
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