Pilot shortage, how long?

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Black_Tusk
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#26 Post by Black_Tusk » Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:45 pm

Do you work at Jazz and know something I don't?
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FL007
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#27 Post by FL007 » Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:58 am

Black_Tusk wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:45 pm
Do you work at Jazz and know something I don't?
I know lots of people at jazz, and maybe 90% don't have pic time.. Actually they needed PICUS to even apply for their atpl.

I do know one or two guys who were previously multi captains but absolutely not the norm, and they have upwards of 3k hours... Where do you find 500-1000hr guys with "lots of multi pic"?
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RocksAndProps
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#28 Post by RocksAndProps » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:19 am

The way I see it, the industry is going to be hurting for at least a 3-4 more years. Regionals have scooped up all the flight instructors, and so nobody is around to train any new pilots. My school lost half its staff last year, most of which were MIFR and Multi instructors. There's now a waiting list to get either of those ratings, and I suspect my school is far from the exception.

Seems pretty short-sighted from an employer's point of view, pretty soon the supply will dry up, and if trends continue nobody will be able to get a MIFR.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#29 Post by Black_Tusk » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:41 am

There is no foresight in regional operations. It's all about putting the fire out now, and keeping planes in the air.
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#30 Post by goingnowherefast » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:43 pm

I'm waiting for the Jazz's and Encore's to open their own flight schools. FOs can be instructors on the side to get their PIC time and actually be eligible for captain. But that costs money...
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digits_
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#31 Post by digits_ » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:12 pm

goingnowherefast wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:43 pm
I'm waiting for the Jazz's and Encore's to open their own flight schools. FOs can be instructors on the side to get their PIC time and actually be eligible for captain. But that costs money...
How about you'd get the captains be instructors? The most experienced pilots should instruct.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#32 Post by goingnowherefast » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:51 am

Cause the captains already have their ATPL and don't need pic time.
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gaamin
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#33 Post by gaamin » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:30 pm

There is no pilot shortage at the moment.
If there were, you would not hear so many pilots complain about the pay and benefits offered by entry jobs (flight instruction, 702, for instance) or by 705 operators.
Will there ever be a pilot shortage? I doubt it. Bill C-33 in 2012 made sure unions have minimal leverage in negotiations.
Employers claiming there is a shortage, and echo chambers such as this thread, on the other hand, make it more acceptable to the general public to possibly allow cheaper foreign labour. Why do you think our agricultural workers are mostly temporary foreign workers?
Claims of pilot shortage also make it easier for companies' ownership to lobby against ICAO-mandated science-based duty/rest time even when US and EU (among others) have implememted them a while ago.
In any field when there is a shortage employment conditons adjust to balance the supply/demand. In any field. If your recent contract is not significantly better than the previous one for that job, it means there is no shortage at your job.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#34 Post by StudentPilot » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:20 pm

gaamin wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:30 pm
There is no pilot shortage at the moment.
...
In any field when there is a shortage employment conditons adjust to balance the supply/demand. In any field. If your recent contract is not significantly better than the previous one for that job, it means there is no shortage at your job.
I am not so sure about that. From what I see the airlines are not having a shortage yet, but the experience of their new hires has plummeted. Realistically they will not have a shortage until there are not enough 200 hour pilots coming out of FTUs as most CPLs are looking to fly for an airline. Much of the world works on that program. Ergo, no raise until all available CPLs are at the airlines and fewer CPLs are being produced than the number of pilots airlines want to hire. That will still take a while.

Meanwhile the airlines and larger regionals are sucking in a whole lot of pilots who previously would be instructing, float flying, and/or flying in (small) northern towns - those are the jobs that are starting to experience a shortage of pilots. Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.

Some operators are offering better terms and conditions than previously (ergo, a pilot shortage by your definition), but none that I have heard of are for an airline job.

My suspicion is that many operators realize they can get away with less experienced pilots (possibly with higher training and/or maintenance bills) for less than improving T&Cs and retaining more experienced pilots who otherwise are going to the airlines.

Some may also think that raising salaries (and customer rates) significantly will push away business - either away from aviation in general or to the competition that has not raised the wages or rates yet - and they will lose even more than being short staffed and/or it will lead to them going out of business. Look at this quote from the CBC:
GM of Ottawa Flying Club wrote:"We haven't raised salaries in, I don't even know, years. It's frightening what these guys make," said Swaffer. "This is not a rich kid's hobby. These guys are struggling to make a living."
I suspect a $20+/hour raise would convince some instructors to move over from OAS, or farther afield, but an extra $20/hour of dual would probably see some of their students train elsewhere as well (unless/until the other local options also increase their pay and rates to match). I doubt a bit more money would keep most instructors beyond whatever it takes to be picked up by Jazz/WJE/AC, but it may be enough to get them to work at OFC until that time comes.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#35 Post by RocksAndProps » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:15 am

StudentPilot wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:20 pm
Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.
I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#36 Post by 7507 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:21 am

RocksAndProps wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:15 am
StudentPilot wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:20 pm
Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.
I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.

So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#37 Post by RocksAndProps » Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:51 pm

7507 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:21 am
RocksAndProps wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:15 am
StudentPilot wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:20 pm
Even if they can find 200 hour pilots for the entry-level jobs many are upgrading to a Dash-8 or CRJ rather than stick around to get into the left seat of a King Air/whatever.
I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.

So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?
I'm not sure about Jazz, but I know Porter has contacted a few of my colleagues. I do know that ~600-700 gets you into GGN as an instructor, likely the same story from the north. As far as I can tell, 600PIC in a 172 doesn't look as good as 400SIC in a King Air.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#38 Post by 7507 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:05 pm

RocksAndProps wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:51 pm
7507 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:21 am
RocksAndProps wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:15 am


I know some guys who went up north into a flying job four or five months ago with fresh ink, and they're already getting "poached" by tier 3 carriers and other regionals. They probably have 400-600hrs at this point, mostly SIC in a KingAir or the like. Meanwhile the instructor-rating pathway takers who shared their CPL groundschool are still sitting around waiting for CAVOK.

It's no surprise to me that more pilots are going up north and not getting into intructing. Even the carrot-on-stick ramp jobs seem to be taking less and less time (I've heard 2-6 months if you're competent), and once you get flying you only need to stay for six months before Jazz is knocking down your door.

Why would anyone pay the extra money to teach for a year still evades me, unless you're really in love with southern Ontario or the lower mainland, and don't want to leave for six months.

On another note, maybe there are some who could offer insight into this, but there have been about six float/bush/beaver/territories jobs posted in the past two or three days. I might be wrong, but that seems unseasonably early for those types of postings... I expected them to appear in six weeks. From the looks of it, one operator got their ducks in a row early and scared the rest into posting their own job ads. I wonder if the pinch is starting to finally get through to the North.

So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?
I'm not sure about Jazz, but I know Porter has contacted a few of my colleagues. I do know that ~600-700 gets you into GGN as an instructor, likely the same story from the north. As far as I can tell, 600PIC in a 172 doesn't look as good as 400SIC in a King Air.

Are you saying Porter is calling guys with 700 hours to interview or tell them they need more time?

GGN as an instructor? Explain please and thank you.
Thanks
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#39 Post by RocksAndProps » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:42 pm

7507 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:05 pm
RocksAndProps wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:51 pm
7507 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:21 am



So guys with 600 hours are going from the north to Jazz and the likes now?
I'm not sure about Jazz, but I know Porter has contacted a few of my colleagues. I do know that ~600-700 gets you into GGN as an instructor, likely the same story from the north. As far as I can tell, 600PIC in a 172 doesn't look as good as 400SIC in a King Air.

Are you saying Porter is calling guys with 700 hours to interview or tell them they need more time?

GGN as an instructor? Explain please and thank you.
Thanks
AFAIK Porter is calling 700-800 hour ME-IFR guys for an interview, and then waiting a month or two and calling them if they interviewed well. I know many who've gone to Porter at not much more than 1000, some of them instructors. They're trying to get to them before Jazz interviews them.

Where I used to work, instructors have left all year for GGN at 700hrs for the 1900, and if they had 1000hrs guys would go onto the RJ. GGN is hiring much lower than their job ads would give away, especially from SOAR affiliates. Some of the brand new class 4 instructors would leave for a GGN or Bearskin after 6mo.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#40 Post by SuperchargedRS » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:53 pm

Black_Tusk wrote:
Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:45 pm
Do you work at Jazz and know something I don't?
No and yes,

I don't work at Jazz, it's not the quality of life I require.

And yes, EXPERIENCE, like real life experience matters, being the first and last word in the cockpit, working your way up from small planes, to single pilot charter, to turbine, to type cert planes, building a solid foundation, that's what makes real experience.


FL007 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:58 am




I know lots of people at jazz, and maybe 90% don't have pic time.. Actually they needed PICUS to even apply for their atpl.

I do know one or two guys who were previously multi captains but absolutely not the norm, and they have upwards of 3k hours... Where do you find 500-1000hr guys with "lots of multi pic"?

Ahh make believe PIC time, gotta love it when the airlines can lobby their way to make the government let them skirt the rules so they can use cheap labor over experienced pilots.
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#41 Post by HansDietrich » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:17 pm

Here's the way I see it. I fly for a regional and (given the chance) and proper pay, I'd go be a flight instructor in a heartbeat. For that to happen this is what would have to happen:

1. Pay at least $70K a year.
2. Have at least 2 weekends off a month
3. Work for a decent employer that respects safety and pilot decision making

Pilot shortage? Nope. Shortage of people willing to work for peanuts? YES!
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#42 Post by fish4life » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:38 am

I believe you can get every weekend off along with great pay if you go instruct out of Southport doing the military ppl’s
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Re: Pilot shortage, how long?

#43 Post by mijbil » Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:51 am

Here's the posting. 60K to start rising to 73K. M-F 40 hrs/week and it has retractable gear and you get to do aeros!!
https://www.myavanti.ca/CareersAtKFAERO ... /2018-0008

The dark side? You have to live in the Peoples Soviet Republic of Manisnowbastan where the two seasons are bugs and -40C windchill and the income tax rates are almost as bad as Atlantic Canada.
Ernst and Young lays it out here http://www.ey.com/ca/en/services/tax/ta ... rsonal-tax

Some live in Winterpeg and do the 45-60 minute commute and some live in Portage la Paradise, home of the world's largest Coke can.
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