Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

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goingnowherefast
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by goingnowherefast » Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:32 am

Through most of the 2000s until about 2013, pilots were making 20-25 grand a year to fly a Navajo or clapped out metro in BFN with no days off. Pushed into illegal situations by abusive companies. Even AC was laying off pilots, dealing with strikes...fun times. OR you could go into the trades and make $25/hr to start as an electrical/plumbing/carpentey/mechanic/wielder/masonry/etc apprentice.

Now nobody wants to be a pilot, and I can't say I blame them. Even the "good" jobs today are in a hotel room 9 days a month working for 37 grand a year at Regional Airlines

IFR students should spend a few lessons in ACTUAL imc. Go flying when it's 500' and actually see what it's like. Be better than their first ILS to minimums is scaring the shit out of the captain with 19 passengers in the back and not enough gas for a 2nd approach if they screw it up.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by digits_ » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:00 am

shimmydampner wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:42 am
digits_ wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:03 pm
Now, if you lower the hiring minima to 200 hours, yes, you will have FOs that are fresh out of school and can't fly properly, but you will have a bunch of people still sharp on the regulations and theoretical aspects about flying
There's a great sales pitch to the traveling public, not to mention the insurance companies; "Our pilots can't fly properly, but they read about it in a book!"
If the alternative is getting 1500 hour wash outs that cam't do neither, then yes, the 200 hour pilot that is still sharp from flight school but a bit rough on handling the plane is the better choice.

You have to compare it to the available pilot pool on the market. Sure, 5000 hour pilots with 1000 hours on type would make great 704 fos, but these people aren't even interested in a 704 captain spot anymore!
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by shimmydampner » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:05 am

Just so I'm clear on this digits, the solution you're advocating for is to lower our standards to such a point that we are putting verifiably terrible pilots into the right seat of high performance airplanes full of paying passengers, next to bare minimum ATPL, very inexperienced captains. This sounds good to you? Have you ever had to train and sign off one of these pilots? I'm going to guess no, because you may feel differently about it when you have to sign your name attesting to their proficiency. You think this sounds like a better solution than say, oh I don't know, companies improving their compensation packages and schedules to attract and retain pilots?
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by shawnthesheep » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:21 am

I've heard from multiple people at Encore who are saying that they will drop there requirements below 1000 at which point the 703/704 will need to drop there requirements...


So why not just do it now and get guys for a year at least so they don't jump ship after 6 months..
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by shawnthesheep » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:23 am

shimmydampner wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:05 am
Just so I'm clear on this digits, the solution you're advocating for is to lower our standards to such a point that we are putting verifiably terrible pilots into the right seat of high performance airplanes full of paying passengers, next to bare minimum ATPL, very inexperienced captains. This sounds good to you? Have you ever had to train and sign off one of these pilots? I'm going to guess no, because you may feel differently about it when you have to sign your name attesting to their proficiency. You think this sounds like a better solution than say, oh I don't know, companies improving their compensation packages and schedules to attract and retain pilots?

I think this has been said before,

There are many countries across the pond that are offering cadetships and training pilots to the bare minimum 200 hours then straight to a 737/A320 family.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by digits_ » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:24 am

shimmydampner wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:05 am
Just so I'm clear on this digits, the solution you're advocating for is to lower our standards to such a point that we are putting verifiably terrible pilots into the right seat of high performance airplanes full of paying passengers, next to bare minimum ATPL, very inexperienced captains. This sounds good to you?
What are you talking about?

I'm saying that you are missing out on a big group of great pilots by sticking to your 1500 hour minimum. To put some random nrs on it to illustrate my point. I think that in your 1500 hr + pilots that apply for your FO position, about 75% would perform sub par. If you lower your requirements to 200 hours and due some testing and invest in a little bit of extra training, more than half would perform good to great. They would also stick around for much longer, so the amount of training and line indoc training captains would do, would be much less, which would make them happier as well.
shimmydampner wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:05 am
Have you ever had to train and sign off one of these pilots? I'm going to guess no, because you may feel differently about it when you have to sign your name attesting to their proficiency.
Here's a thought: don't sign off the 1500 hour FO that doesn't perform adequately and then go on avcanada complaining about his performance. He either cuts it, or he doesn't. The experience level should be irrelevant, only the performance during training/ppc ride/linde indoc should matter.

I postulate that the fresh 200 hour pilot will perform better, on average, than a 1500 hour pilot applying for a 1900 fo position.
shimmydampner wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:05 am
You think this sounds like a better solution than say, oh I don't know, companies improving their compensation packages and schedules to attract and retain pilots?
No, but this discussion has been about experience levels, not pay. Sure, pay every pilot 100k + and attract more experienced pilots. That doesn't seem to happen (yet). My solution would not cost a company extra money. The extra training costs could probably be absorbed within the same fiscal year by not having to train as many pilots. And the general quality of pilots at your company would go up as well.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by shimmydampner » Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:39 pm

digits_ wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:24 am
To put some random nrs on it to illustrate my point. I think that in your 1500 hr + pilots that apply for your FO position, about 75% would perform sub par. If you lower your requirements to 200 hours and due some testing and invest in a little bit of extra training, more than half would perform good to great.
I postulate that the fresh 200 hour pilot will perform better, on average, than a 1500 hour pilot applying for a 1900 fo position.
I get it now. You have no idea what you're talking about. Postulate all you want, but I've seen the difference many times in training.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by iflyforpie » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:23 pm

200 hours is better than 1500 hours?

I don’t think so. Not even with more screening and training. The 200 hour wonder is along for the ride, and the captain is going to be doing the equivalent of line indoc for a year as he both flies the plane and tries to keep the FO from killing everyone on board.

Sure in Europe... flying big jets ILS to ILS with the autopilot on under the supervision of a much more experienced captain a 200 hour wonder will be ok. Or the dumbed down version of 705 regional ops in Canada where they are de icing on sunny days and forbid circling approaches going to the “boonies” like North Bay and Terrace.

But none will do better than a 1500 hour pilot or even a 750 hour pilot with some real world decision making experience. I was talking to a former CX pilot about their cadet program and when presented with a scenario where the captain became incapacitated, these cadets didn’t know what to do. It wasn’t a matter of knowing the aircraft and the procedures or being able to fly the plane... it was that they literally didn’t know how to make a decision without asking mom... er.. the captain first.

There’s a reason why PIC is King, and even if you were just FO in a shitty operation going to a less shitty one you probably saw and learned a few things or even intervened when your captain was making a bad decision.

So might it be that these smaller operators are stuck, unable to attract the experience they require with the wages they can offer? Perhaps. But I don’t think that sticking 250 hour wonders into the right seat of a 1900 is as cheap as you think it will be. Higher risk, inefficiency, and in this market too... the risk of becoming a bottom-heavy company who can’t flow anyone to replace the captains that are leaving.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by a313 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:36 pm

iflyforpie wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:23 pm
200 hours is better than 1500 hours?

I don’t think so. Not even with more screening and training. The 200 hour wonder is along for the ride, and the captain is going to be doing the equivalent of line indoc for a year as he both flies the plane and tries to keep the FO from killing everyone on board.

Sure in Europe... flying big jets ILS to ILS with the autopilot on under the supervision of a much more experienced captain a 200 hour wonder will be ok. Or the dumbed down version of 705 regional ops in Canada where they are de icing on sunny days and forbid circling approaches going to the “boonies” like North Bay and Terrace.

But none will do better than a 1500 hour pilot or even a 750 hour pilot with some real world decision making experience. I was talking to a former CX pilot about their cadet program and when presented with a scenario where the captain became incapacitated, these cadets didn’t know what to do. It wasn’t a matter of knowing the aircraft and the procedures or being able to fly the plane... it was that they literally didn’t know how to make a decision without asking mom... er.. the captain first.

There’s a reason why PIC is King, and even if you were just FO in a shitty operation going to a less shitty one you probably saw and learned a few things or even intervened when your captain was making a bad decision.

So might it be that these smaller operators are stuck, unable to attract the experience they require with the wages they can offer? Perhaps. But I don’t think that sticking 250 hour wonders into the right seat of a 1900 is as cheap as you think it will be. Higher risk, inefficiency, and in this market too... the risk of becoming a bottom-heavy company who can’t flow anyone to replace the captains that are leaving.
So what are 250 hour wonder pilots supposed to do? The only real option is to instruct, and while yes it's all PIC time and yes an instructor does face a lot of decision making, all an instructor really does is supervise and take control from a student when something doesn't go according to plan... how much value can one really place on PIC hours flying in the same practice area over and over, and then doing the occasional cross country here and there.

The only other option is, ramp... and then you're still stuck with a 250 hour wonder pilot in the right seat who's skills have degraded even more by sitting on the ground for a year while they wait, which then leads to even more coaching

So I ask, how are the 703/704 operators supposed to attract 750,1000, 1500 hour guys when there is this "shortage" and most are going to the regionals anyways... I'm asking this on serious note, what do you all propose is a solution to this problem?
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by digits_ » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:38 pm

iflyforpie wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:23 pm
200 hours is better than 1500 hours?
That's not what I said.

A fresh 200 hour pilot straight from flying school could fairly easily be trained to be better than a 1500 hour pilot who accepts a 1900 FO position in this economy.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by ehv8oar » Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:59 pm

I see what you're getting at, that someone with 200 hours and just out of flight school is going to probably be more up-to-date on the rules and regs and more keen to learn than someone with 1500 hours of bush flying.

In some ways you're right but think back to what you were like at 200 hours, now think about what you were like at 1500 hours, I'm sure you'll agree that you were a better overall Pilot at 1500 hours than 200 hours.

You also can't make sweeping statements about, someone with 1500 hours who would take a 1900 fo position in this economy, as though this makes that person a moron who's unfit to fly. People make decisions based on things like location, close to family etc not just on size of an aircraft.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by shimmydampner » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:08 pm

a313 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:36 pm
So what are 250 hour wonder pilots supposed to do? The only real option is to instruct
...
The only other option is, ramp
...
So I ask, how are the 703/704 operators supposed to attract 750,1000, 1500 hour guys when there is this "shortage" and most are going to the regionals anyways
You are conflating the two problems. They are separate issues. And there are more options than instructing or ramp. There are plenty of 703 bush jobs available these days and it's a fantastic way to not only build PIC time, but also aircraft handling skill and decision making skills. You know, the really, really important piloting skills that are difficult to teach and take time to learn? I'm sorry, but the right seat of 705 airplanes is not the place for 250 hour kids to be figuring out how to fly, particularly when there are 70 lives in the back. It's not fair to the paying public who are unaware that the person in the right seat is, at that point, more of a hindrance than a help to the captain. As for the problem of companies finding pilots, it's cheaper to pay a bit more for someone with a modicum of experience than it is to gamble thousands of training dollars on a totally green pilot who may very well fail their training, which is the reality of what's happening now. The failure rate in 705 training seems like it's pretty high these days, both in my experience, and talking to others, and it seems to be due to a lack of experience. I've observed that candidates with more experience invariably do much better than those with none.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by a313 » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:14 pm

shimmydampner wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:08 pm
a313 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:36 pm
So what are 250 hour wonder pilots supposed to do? The only real option is to instruct
...
The only other option is, ramp
...
So I ask, how are the 703/704 operators supposed to attract 750,1000, 1500 hour guys when there is this "shortage" and most are going to the regionals anyways
You are conflating the two problems. They are separate issues. And there are more options than instructing or ramp. There are plenty of 703 bush jobs available these days and it's a fantastic way to not only build PIC time, but also aircraft handling skill and decision making skills. You know, the really, really important piloting skills that are difficult to teach and take time to learn? I'm sorry, but the right seat of 705 airplanes is not the place for 250 hour kids to be figuring out how to fly, particularly when there are 70 lives in the back. It's not fair to the paying public who are unaware that the person in the right seat is, at that point, more of a hindrance than a help to the captain. As for the problem of companies finding pilots, it's cheaper to pay a bit more for someone with a modicum of experience than it is to gamble thousands of training dollars on a totally green pilot who may very well fail their training, which is the reality of what's happening now. The failure rate in 705 training seems like it's pretty high these days, both in my experience, and talking to others, and it seems to be due to a lack of experience. I've observed that candidates with more experience invariably do much better than those with none.
Could you kindly point me to these operators you're speaking of, or to the other opportunities for direct entry flying for a 250 hour pilot that doesn't involve instructing or ramp?

In an idealistic world, in you're opinion, please tell me how one would solve the issue for these 703/704 operators, so that we don't keep seeing a job ad every 2 to 4 weeks from the same company with the same requirements
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by ehv8oar » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:25 pm

Simple fact is that some of these operators might have to go bust, if they cant get the experience they require they're better closing the doors than putting someone with no experience in a dangerous position.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by Warden » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:38 pm

shimmydampner wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:08 pm
a313 wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:36 pm
So what are 250 hour wonder pilots supposed to do? The only real option is to instruct
...
The only other option is, ramp
...
So I ask, how are the 703/704 operators supposed to attract 750,1000, 1500 hour guys when there is this "shortage" and most are going to the regionals anyways
You are conflating the two problems. They are separate issues. And there are more options than instructing or ramp. There are plenty of 703 bush jobs available these days and it's a fantastic way to not only build PIC time, but also aircraft handling skill and decision making skills. You know, the really, really important piloting skills that are difficult to teach and take time to learn? I'm sorry, but the right seat of 705 airplanes is not the place for 250 hour kids to be figuring out how to fly, particularly when there are 70 lives in the back. It's not fair to the paying public who are unaware that the person in the right seat is, at that point, more of a hindrance than a help to the captain. As for the problem of companies finding pilots, it's cheaper to pay a bit more for someone with a modicum of experience than it is to gamble thousands of training dollars on a totally green pilot who may very well fail their training, which is the reality of what's happening now. The failure rate in 705 training seems like it's pretty high these days, both in my experience, and talking to others, and it seems to be due to a lack of experience. I've observed that candidates with more experience invariably do much better than those with none.
It's also not fair to all the Captains at those companies who are basically doing extended line indoc and training these pilots how to operate (not fly per-say, most can do that well enough with a bit of coaching). I was basically an unpaid line indoc Captain the last few years at Jazz.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by digits_ » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:44 pm

ehv8oar wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:59 pm
I see what you're getting at, that someone with 200 hours and just out of flight school is going to probably be more up-to-date on the rules and regs and more keen to learn than someone with 1500 hours of bush flying.

In some ways you're right but think back to what you were like at 200 hours, now think about what you were like at 1500 hours, I'm sure you'll agree that you were a better overall Pilot at 1500 hours than 200 hours.
Absolutely. But we're not comparing 1 pilot at 2 points of time in his career, we are comparing 2 different pilots. I don't think the 1500 hour pilot in my example would be super great at 200 hours either.

So we are comparing a well tested/interviewed/vetted 200 hour pilot selected out of a pool of, let's say 100 applicants versus a 1500 hour pilot out of a pool of 2? 5? applicants.
ehv8oar wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:59 pm
You also can't make sweeping statements about, someone with 1500 hours who would take a 1900 fo position in this economy, as though this makes that person a moron who's unfit to fly. People make decisions based on things like location, close to family etc not just on size of an aircraft.
Absolutely, but still, ... what location only has a 1900 FO spot for a 1500 hour pilot nowadays?

I brought up the argument of the 200 hour pilot as a reply towards a post complaining about the skills of a 1500 hour FO. The 1500 hour mark was considered a good play of the company to get good and safe pilots because they have experience. Yet the poster was unhappy about the skills of the 1500 hour FO. Increasing the hour requirements would -in my opinion- only make matters worse. Lowering the experience requirements so you can select out of a bigger pool of candidates would be more beneficial, unless of course the salary goes up with the requested experience, but I don't believe that to be the case in these discussions.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by mixturerich » Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:24 am

Say what you will about the low level of experience at the airlines now, but they have highly qualified experts, lawyers, and analysts saying it’s perfectly fine and the risks are worth the revenue. Maybe they’re right? What do we know
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by goingnowherefast » Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:24 am

mixturerich wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:24 am
Say what you will about the low level of experience at the airlines now, but they have highly qualified experts, lawyers, and analysts saying it’s perfectly fine and the risks are worth the revenue. Maybe they’re right? What do we know
I bet the experts are nervous as hell (meaning flight ops management). It's the lawyers, accountants executives and other analysts who are happy.


On another note, some companies have already gone under because they can't find or afford pilots
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by shimmydampner » Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:46 pm

digits_ wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:44 pm
I brought up the argument of the 200 hour pilot as a reply towards a post complaining about the skills of a 1500 hour FO.
I reviewed this whole thread, and nowhere did I find any comments complaining about the skills of 1500 hour FOs. You've been tilting at windmills this whole time.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by digits_ » Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:04 pm

shimmydampner wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:46 pm
digits_ wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:44 pm
I brought up the argument of the 200 hour pilot as a reply towards a post complaining about the skills of a 1500 hour FO.
I reviewed this whole thread, and nowhere did I find any comments complaining about the skills of 1500 hour FOs. You've been tilting at windmills this whole time.
No point in joining this discussion if you can't read. Nothing I can do to help you there.
Blackdog0301 wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:31 pm
I have a similar experience as FOD vacuum. I work for a company that prefers to hire 1500 hourish pilots for a 1900 FO position. And let me tell you, some of these FOs that have this amount of time (usually all instructing) STILL need to be babied with every aspect of their flying. I swear sometimes it feels like I’m flying single pilot because I’m having to coach the guy beside me how to work with CRFI numbers, how to calculate IFR alternate requirements, how to use performance charts, etc. It makes some captains grow grey hair very quickly, so you can imagine the babysitting required when putting a 500 hour guy in a high performance, pressurized airplane.

Not sure if it’s proven or not, but I’m almost certain that it’s cheaper for companies to put up with a shortage of pilots while waiting for the right experience to come along than to spend thousands and thousands of dollars teaching a 250 hour pilot how to fly an ILS approach. I’ve heard stories of companies hiring 1000 hour pilots who have just finished their IFR rating, and have never actually flown into a single cloud in their life. Then the training that’s supposed to be aircraft specific and company specific, turns into “how to fly in IMC without becoming disoriented.” Because let’s face it, flying around with some cheap goggles on to simulate IFR is NOWHERE CLOSE to what it actually feels like to fly an ILS approach down to minimums in actual IMC... at night... with a crosswind... in a snow storm...
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by Blackdog0301 » Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:58 pm

For the record, I was referencing SOME 1500 hour pilots, not all. Pilots with this amount of time should be able to slide in seamlessly into pretty much any flying role with the right training. But from what I’ve seen, I still see some guys with this amount of time flying like they are sub-500 hour pilots. But in the end, I’d still rather have these guys next to me over 250 hour guys... why? Experience. I couldn’t give a crap about the low time guys being “fresher.” Knowing something is one thing...applying it is quite another.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by shimmydampner » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:06 pm

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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by C-GGGQ » Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:43 am

Blackdog0301 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:58 pm
For the record, I was referencing SOME 1500 hour pilots, not all. Pilots with this amount of time should be able to slide in seamlessly into pretty much any flying role with the right training. But from what I’ve seen, I still see some guys with this amount of time flying like they are sub-500 hour pilots. But in the end, I’d still rather have these guys next to me over 250 hour guys... why? Experience. I couldn’t give a crap about the low time guys being “fresher.” Knowing something is one thing...applying it is quite another.
Except that makes no sense. If these 1500 hour guys are "just as bad" as the 200 they've proven they have no capacity to learn where as the 200 is just new. If as digits suggests you screen for the best 200 hr guys vs the leftover 1500 hour guy the 200 hour guy will be proficient faster.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by ehv8oar » Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:16 am

This is the problem with just using amount of flight time instead of type of flight time as the criteria.

Someone who's got 1500 hours flying around in their own floatplane is not gonna be as quick at picking things up in an IFR environment as someone who's got 800 hours, 600 of which have been spent right seat in an ifr pc12 or something of the type.

It doesn't mean they're stupid just that they dont have relevant experience.
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Re: Pilot Shortage / Minimums /disconnect

Post by Blackdog0301 » Tue Aug 06, 2019 12:06 pm

C-GGGQ wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:43 am
Blackdog0301 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:58 pm
For the record, I was referencing SOME 1500 hour pilots, not all. Pilots with this amount of time should be able to slide in seamlessly into pretty much any flying role with the right training. But from what I’ve seen, I still see some guys with this amount of time flying like they are sub-500 hour pilots. But in the end, I’d still rather have these guys next to me over 250 hour guys... why? Experience. I couldn’t give a crap about the low time guys being “fresher.” Knowing something is one thing...applying it is quite another.
Except that makes no sense. If these 1500 hour guys are "just as bad" as the 200 they've proven they have no capacity to learn where as the 200 is just new. If as digits suggests you screen for the best 200 hr guys vs the leftover 1500 hour guy the 200 hour guy will be proficient faster.
First, I compared these guys to sub-500 hour pilots... Which is Still miles ahead of new CPL IFR pilots. No matter how bad a 1500 hour pilot is, they are ALWAYS going to have more experience than a 250 hour pilot. If we have an engine fire after takeoff, who's going to have the cooler head? The guy who's been flying planes longer. That's a no brainer. A 250 hour pilot is going to freeze every time, leaving me to do everything myself. Low time pilots haven't seen ANYTHING yet. You tell me who you'd rather have next do you during an emergency? Some new hire who's been flying for less than 2 years? Or a guy who's been flying for 5 or 6?Go fly pipeline, instruct, tow gliders. Not for the sake of gaining hours, but gaining Experience.
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