DOH merge.

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HavaJava
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava »

Just another canuck wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:31 am
I disagree. AC acquiring Transat will provide many positives that have already been beaten to death on here. Think long term. This would be good for AC.
Agree to disagree? It may be a slight net positive for AC shareholders. But it will be a definite negative for AC pilots. No point in rehashing...but I would bet my house that after the dust settles most mid-low seniority AC pilots will take on average a 1.5 year career progression hit...Not great, not terrible.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TFTMB heavy »

HavaJava wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:39 am
Just another canuck wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:31 am
I disagree. AC acquiring Transat will provide many positives that have already been beaten to death on here. Think long term. This would be good for AC.
Agree to disagree? It may be a slight net positive for AC shareholders. But it will be a definite negative for AC pilots. No point in rehashing...but I would bet my house that after the dust settles most mid-low seniority AC pilots will take on average a 1.5 year career progression hit...Not great, not terrible.
I'd like to see some math to support that? TS pilots will come with airplanes and are understaffed compared to AC, can't see how this will hurt AC pilots.
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HavaJava
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:35 pm

I'd like to see some math to support that? TS pilots will come with airplanes and are understaffed compared to AC, can't see how this will hurt AC pilots.
I strongly believe that the there will be little to no net fin increase at the new merged company. 330's replace retiring 767. Air Canada needs 600 pilots in the next year for our current staffing requirements (conveniently AT has roughly that amount). We are already scraping the barrel with new hires with ~2 years industry experience.

I don't think buying AT has nearly as much to do with routes or aircraft as it does with acquiring experienced pilots. Of course, management would never admit to that because it might make pilots actually realize we are a hot commodity and worth more than what we are currently making.
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Warden
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:35 pm
HavaJava wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:39 am
Just another canuck wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:31 am
I disagree. AC acquiring Transat will provide many positives that have already been beaten to death on here. Think long term. This would be good for AC.
Agree to disagree? It may be a slight net positive for AC shareholders. But it will be a definite negative for AC pilots. No point in rehashing...but I would bet my house that after the dust settles most mid-low seniority AC pilots will take on average a 1.5 year career progression hit...Not great, not terrible.
I'd like to see some math to support that? TS pilots will come with airplanes and are understaffed compared to AC, can't see how this will hurt AC pilots.
It can and will effect long term WB Captain upgrades.

Yes even with 20 A330s. Crewed at conservative 15:1 is 300 CA positions. Yet they are bringing 500+ pilots. All of who will now be able to bid into and hold WB and NB CA positions before anyone below them who is already on property.

It may not make a huge difference in where you sit on a NB FO or RP list at the moment, and may not make much of a difference for a Jr upgrade onto an NB, but long term it will absolutely effect total earning potential and lifestyle over a career.
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HavaJava
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava »

Warden wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:06 pm It can and will effect long term WB Captain upgrades.

Yes even with 20 A330s. Crewed at conservative 15:1 is 300 CA positions. Yet they are bringing 500+ pilots. All of who will now be able to bid into and hold WB and NB CA positions before anyone below them who is already on property.

It may not make a huge difference in where you sit on a NB FO or RP list at the moment, and may not make much of a difference for a Jr upgrade onto an NB, but long term it will absolutely effect total earning potential and lifestyle over a career.
You aren’t factoring in AT retirements into your equation. Senior AT guys will retire by the time you bid WB Captain so there won’t be 500 ahead of you any more.

If we are lucky enough to actually add 20 330s to the existing fleet (net +20 fins) and if they were actually crewed at 15:1 (usually closer to 10:1 at AC) then I think we would all do ok. I don’t think it will play out like that though
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FL320
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by FL320 »

HavaJava wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:07 pm
You aren’t factoring in AT retirements into your equation. Senior AT guys will retire by the time you bid WB Captain so there won’t be 500 ahead of you any more.

If we are lucky enough to actually add 20 330s to the existing fleet (net +20 fins) and if they were actually crewed at 15:1 (usually closer to 10:1 at AC) then I think we would all do ok. I don’t think it will play out like that though
If we have a merge I’m pretty sure some of our senior Captains will ask for a package and retire earlier. Many guys are not interested in learning a new Ops manual...
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

AC can add pilots at will. Bottom of the barrel? Have you read recent new hire bios from flag carriers and heavy jets around the world and other Canadian 705 jet airlines?

As for sourcing airplanes... from recently from Singapore, Wow, Qatar, Hawaiian... there are always aircraft available on the world market. And good ones too... Maybe it's time for a deal on a couple 380s to run YYZ-LHR/FRA... YVR even daily... price is right these days!

So I'll take 500 or 600 at the bottom of the list and slower incremental aircraft additions over what are all leases, many high time oldies, which will never see AC paint, and an SLI fight for an over crewed airline.

Good for Calin Rovinescu is not good for AC Pilots.

Mach is going to block this merger anyway. It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
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HavaJava
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava »

altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm AC can add pilots at will. Bottom of the barrel? Have you read recent new hire bios from flag carriers and heavy jets around the world and other Canadian 705 jet airlines?
I didn't mean bottom of the barrel in a derogatory way. I know there are some high time new hires, but there are A LOT of people with 2-3 years experience who had to do PICUS to get their ATPLs. Perhaps AC is swimming in quality applications...perhaps it's getting tougher for them. Still, 600 ready to go, experienced pilots has got to be tempting.

And I am with you...I'd far rather hire OTS to the bottom of the list to fill the shortage...but Calin doesn't give a shit about that.
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FL320
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by FL320 »

altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
No it’s not. I am one of them, like many colleagues and for my own interest I will vote for AC 😉
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indieadventurer
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by indieadventurer »

altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
This deal seems off. Mach said they want to secure "at least" 6.9 million shares. If the AC deal is voted down, won't the share price drop back to pre-merger discussion prices? Mach is then holding "at least" 6.9 million shares they paid $14 per share for and which are now trading at $6. What am I missing here?
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

Maybe, but I doubt it. The value is now established.

Recall they were offering $14/share for the whole company only weeks ago, they don't care about share price gains, they're looking to buy the company.

But if I'm a shareholder, I don't risk it. I go for $14, it's better than $13 without any uncertainty.
Yes is voted I get $13 in a year. No is voted I get $14 in a week.

Or if I think the value is there I hold my shares and vote No myself.

Transat execs are voting for paying themselves, that's it. Their handling of the deal with AC stinks.

You are thinking like a pilot:
"Pilots always vote 'Yes'" - Robert A. Milton.
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

FL320 wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:54 pm
altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
No it’s not. I am one of them, like many colleagues and for my own interest I will vote for AC 😉
You are also voting for interests apart from the share price - your own career interest.

Otherwise why not take $14? You are willing to sell at a lower price? Are you not a capitalist?

I think there are shareholders more savvy than that.
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indieadventurer
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by indieadventurer »

That value of $14 was established in their original offer, now off the table, to purchase all outstanding shares and take the company private.

What guarantee have they provided that once they’ve acquired at least 19.5% at $14 that they will buy out the balance of the shares that they’ve been given voting control over, for $14. Do they have funding for more than 20% at that price?

If I recall, in the interview Chiara gave he mentioned they are only looking to be a minority partner at the moment.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Just another canuck »

indieadventurer wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:32 pm That value of $14 was established in their original offer, now off the table, to purchase all outstanding shares and take the company private.

What guarantee have they provided that once they’ve acquired at least 19.5% at $14 that they will buy out the balance of the shares that they’ve been given voting control over, for $14. Do they have funding for more than 20% at that price?

If I recall, in the interview Chiara gave he mentioned they are only looking to be a minority partner at the moment.
But altiplano says everyone is getting 14 bucks guaranteed next week and it's a no brainer to hand their vote over to Mach. 🙄
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

That's not what I said. If you give your proxy to Mach and it's "No" you got $14 guaranteed.

If you don't give it and it's"No" you're riding the chances.

Either way if it's "Yes", you're probably $13.

So to me, particularly if I'm happy at $13, why wouldn't I take Mach's offer. You will get $13 or $14. It's a great way to hedge the outcome here, and on a positive side.

If you don't and it's a "No" that's a chance you take...

Minority stake? That's what Mach has to propose with this strategy. If they move to acquire 20% it enacts a shareholder rights provision, aka poison pill, that gives the BOD the right to prevent Mach from making proposals directly to individual shareholders.

19.5% is a clear strategy, it's not some half baked number out of the blue.

I think it's one of the more interesting business stories in this country in a while.

Maybe you guys don't understand the strategy.

There's a reason Transat execs are pissed. If this flops they aren't getting their pay day and they're getting fired.

I think any savvy investor happy at $13, is covering at $14 too... it's a smart move, most don't care who buys Transat.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TFTMB heavy »

I invite you guys to go read up on how this deal came together for AC vs Group Mach, start on page 6 of the following document https://www.transat.com/getmedia/609a47 ... L.pdf.aspx

Also, go read up on the Group Mach proposal for the share purchase scheme. It's not very long, you should read the whole document.
http://www.groupemach.com/DATA/TEXTEDOC ... g-PDF-.PDF

Happy reading.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden »

HavaJava wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:51 pm
altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm AC can add pilots at will. Bottom of the barrel? Have you read recent new hire bios from flag carriers and heavy jets around the world and other Canadian 705 jet airlines?
I didn't mean bottom of the barrel in a derogatory way. I know there are some high time new hires, but there are A LOT of people with 2-3 years experience who had to do PICUS to get their ATPLs. Perhaps AC is swimming in quality applications...perhaps it's getting tougher for them. Still, 600 ready to go, experienced pilots has got to be tempting.

And I am with you...I'd far rather hire OTS to the bottom of the list to fill the shortage...but Calin doesn't give a shit about that.
That's actually not really true at all. Looking back a year on the new hire bios most of the pilots hired were all 705 Captains and have more than "PICUS" experince as you say. Yes there are a few here and there, the GGN cadets for example and a few 2500 hour pilots that came from Jazz on the new flow thing. But overall, the experience in the new hire classes is 705 CA, some 704 CA and a handfull of 705 FOs. Lots coming from WJ, SW, Qatar, EH, Cathay, Ethiad etc.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden »

indieadventurer wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:29 pm
altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
This deal seems off. Mach said they want to secure "at least" 6.9 million shares. If the AC deal is voted down, won't the share price drop back to pre-merger discussion prices? Mach is then holding "at least" 6.9 million shares they paid $14 per share for and which are now trading at $6. What am I missing here?
Looking into the Mach offer, I really don't understand what their biz plan actually is. All I see is they want to block the deal and come up with their own plan for "near term growth." Ok, well... tell us. What't the plan? Other than "it's good for Quebec jobs." Whatever that means...
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Just another canuck
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Just another canuck »

Warden wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:35 pm
indieadventurer wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:29 pm
altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
This deal seems off. Mach said they want to secure "at least" 6.9 million shares. If the AC deal is voted down, won't the share price drop back to pre-merger discussion prices? Mach is then holding "at least" 6.9 million shares they paid $14 per share for and which are now trading at $6. What am I missing here?
Looking into the Mach offer, I really don't understand what their biz plan actually is. All I see is they want to block the deal and come up with their own plan for "near term growth." Ok, well... tell us. What't the plan? Other than "it's good for Quebec jobs." Whatever that means...
They're pissed about the share price cause they bought high. More importantly, they want the hotel business and land. They either don't have a plan or if they do, they have no intention of telling anyone cause it's a dubious one.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by tintin42 »

altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:14 pm That's not what I said. If you give your proxy to Mach and it's "No" you got $14 guaranteed.

If you don't give it and it's"No" you're riding the chances.

Either way if it's "Yes", you're probably $13.

So to me, particularly if I'm happy at $13, why wouldn't I take Mach's offer. You will get $13 or $14. It's a great way to hedge the outcome here, and on a positive side.

If you don't and it's a "No" that's a chance you take...

Minority stake? That's what Mach has to propose with this strategy. If they move to acquire 20% it enacts a shareholder rights provision, aka poison pill, that gives the BOD the right to prevent Mach from making proposals directly to individual shareholders.

19.5% is a clear strategy, it's not some half baked number out of the blue.

I think it's one of the more interesting business stories in this country in a while.

Maybe you guys don't understand the strategy.

There's a reason Transat execs are pissed. If this flops they aren't getting their pay day and they're getting fired.

I think any savvy investor happy at $13, is covering at $14 too... it's a smart move, most don't care who buys Transat.
Let’s say Mach get 40% of the shareholders interested. They get to vote as if they owned 40% of the share, but after the deal with AC doesn’t pass, they only buy 19.9% of the share at 14$ the other 20.1% are still at the shareholders and if they want to sell it’s going to be at market price witch at that point would probably be much lower than 13$.

So let’s say someone as 1000 share, he either vote yes and get 13 000$ or go with Mach to vote no and get half the share at 14$ (assuming 40% of the share holder take the deal) and half when he sell at market price with would be closer to market value in April : 500 at 14$ plus 500 at 6$ = 10 000$.

It’s definitely not a win-win for invertors.
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