DOH merge.

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Warden
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:46 am

Fanblade wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:09 am
Warden wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:27 pm
Big bid tomorrow. Apparently the biggest AC has ever had.

Get that left seat bid in before they all disappear for a decade.
Rumours have it that the company is planning to delay the bid until after the Transat shareholder vote.

During the last merge AC moved a bunch of hiring to Canadian Airlines to take pressure off the AC training department.

Transat has under utilized aircraft and a training department that isn’t way behind the power curve.

AC won’t let Transat’s under utilized fleet stay under utilized while waiting for seniority integration.

Make no mistake. If the shareholders vote yes? Some of those positions will show up on the Transat side while we await seniority integration.
I've heard this as well... if that's the case I don't understand why they can't just do another one in October and December like they are supposed to. There are a lot of people waiting to transfer bases. They already skipped the July bid.
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Fanblade
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:57 am

Warden wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:46 am
Fanblade wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:09 am
Warden wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 4:27 pm
Big bid tomorrow. Apparently the biggest AC has ever had.

Get that left seat bid in before they all disappear for a decade.
Rumours have it that the company is planning to delay the bid until after the Transat shareholder vote.

During the last merge AC moved a bunch of hiring to Canadian Airlines to take pressure off the AC training department.

Transat has under utilized aircraft and a training department that isn’t way behind the power curve.

AC won’t let Transat’s under utilized fleet stay under utilized while waiting for seniority integration.

Make no mistake. If the shareholders vote yes? Some of those positions will show up on the Transat side while we await seniority integration.
I've heard this as well... if that's the case I don't understand why they can't just do another one in October and December like they are supposed to. There are a lot of people waiting to transfer bases. They already skipped the July bid.
They also haven’t back filled retirements since January or so. That is part of the reason for the large bid. The cancelled bids were a result of uncertainty surrounding Transat and Max. The movement isn’t gone. It’s just pent up. They will need to start moving fast this fall and/or perhaps transfer some of the hiring to Transat.

They can actually delay this bid until Aug 24th. They don't have to wait until October. Nor will they. They can’t and make next summer work.

The rumours indicate to me that they have a plan A if Transat’s shareholders vote yes. A plan B if Transat’s shareholders say no.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:11 am

Fanblade wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:57 am
Warden wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:46 am
Fanblade wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:09 am


Rumours have it that the company is planning to delay the bid until after the Transat shareholder vote.

During the last merge AC moved a bunch of hiring to Canadian Airlines to take pressure off the AC training department.

Transat has under utilized aircraft and a training department that isn’t way behind the power curve.

AC won’t let Transat’s under utilized fleet stay under utilized while waiting for seniority integration.

Make no mistake. If the shareholders vote yes? Some of those positions will show up on the Transat side while we await seniority integration.
I've heard this as well... if that's the case I don't understand why they can't just do another one in October and December like they are supposed to. There are a lot of people waiting to transfer bases. They already skipped the July bid.
They also haven’t back filled retirements since January or so. That is part of the reason for the large bid. The cancelled bids were a result of uncertainty surrounding Transat and Max. The movement isn’t gone. It’s just pent up. They will need to start moving fast this fall and/or perhaps transfer some of the hiring to Transat.

They can actually delay this bid until Aug 24th. They don't have to wait until October. Nor will they. They can’t and make next summer work.

The rumours indicate to me that they have a plan A if Transat’s shareholders vote yes. A plan B if Transat’s shareholders say no.
Yeah I get what you mean. It would be nice to just post the bid now and when when/if the AT vote goes through all those things can go onto the October bid.

I can't believe they haven't back filled any retirements yet. I've been checking them out every few months and the amount of widebody skippers gone is really high. This is going to be a pretty big bid, just like everyone expects, with a lot of movement.

Also if the AT merge happens, there's going to be a lot of work to do with how they integrate which will cause more bids in the future when/if the AT pilots can bid as well. So even by adding the positions to this coming bid, depending on what happens in negotiations or enforced by an arbitrator it will all change again.
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Fanblade
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:25 am

Our contract language does not force AC to put out a bid every two months. They are just PLANNED bids.

Bids cause activation dates and then trigger $$$$$ down the road.

The bid may very well come out today. It may also get delayed a couple of weeks. Either one won’t likely change when people transfer equipment or base.

Actually the company will probably try to manage Transat/AC’s staffing prior to integration. So that we just slide together without excess/shortage or bumping. It is why I expect Transat will see an increase in positions if their shareholders vote yes.

Putting out a bid at AC and then reducing it and putting it on the Transat side after. Bad.
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Fanblade
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:25 am

Our contract language does not force AC to put out a bid every two months. They are just PLANNED bids.

Bids cause activation dates and then trigger $$$$$ down the road.

The bid may very well come out today. It may also get delayed a couple of weeks. Either one won’t likely change when people transfer equipment or base.

Actually the company will probably try to manage Transat/AC’s staffing prior to integration. So that we just slide together without excess/shortage or bumping. It is why I expect Transat will see an increase in positions if their shareholders vote yes.

Putting out a bid at AC and then reducing it and putting it on the Transat side after. Bad.
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Warden
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:42 am

Fanblade wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:25 am
Our contract language does not force AC to put out a bid every two months. They are just PLANNED bids.

Bids cause activation dates and then trigger $$$$$ down the road.

The bid may very well come out today. It may also get delayed a couple of weeks. Either one won’t likely change when people transfer equipment or base.

Actually the company will probably try to manage Transat/AC’s staffing prior to integration. So that we just slide together without excess/shortage or bumping. It is why I expect Transat will see an increase in positions if their shareholders vote yes.

Putting out a bid at AC and then reducing it and putting it on the Transat side after. Bad.
Yeah fair enough, it is planned no required.

All in all we'll see what happens. A few weeks here nor there won't make that much of difference.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by indieadventurer » Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:16 pm

Interesting interview with Group Mach CEO on BNN today discussing their deal and plan to block the Air Canada merger. He alludes they have control or will of the required number of shares and also discusses Onex and some other industry partners to take the operation to the next level should they eventually become a majority shareholder. However, for now he states they only intend to act as a minority shareholder and to make sure the company is run properly.

I get the impression more is definitely going on behind the scenes between them and Onex.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/transat-sho ... -1.1297769
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Last edited by indieadventurer on Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: DOH merge.

Post by indieadventurer » Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:47 pm

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Last edited by indieadventurer on Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: DOH merge.

Post by indieadventurer » Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:47 pm

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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano » Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:10 pm

Go Chiarra!

Shitcan the Board and CEO who are clearly self interested in this deal with big buyouts and parachutes already negotiated. Get the most value for shareholders!
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by termerair » Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:19 pm

This is mind blowing... How could a shareholder decide to buy his shit...?

He openly lies when he says his deal is far better than the Air Canada proposed transaction... If he wins his scam the share price will plunge to its initial price... let's say 6$ in the most optimistic scenario... only 19.5% of the shares will be paid within 48h at 14$/share but all the rest will be negociated at 6$ and nobody will be willing to sell at that low price...

It is obvious that guy has no plans for the future of Transat... And why would onex need such a tool to get involved in a competition with AC...?

Something fishy in that counter offer from group Mach...

T.

indieadventurer wrote:
Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:16 pm
Interesting interview with Group Mach CEO on BNN today discussing their deal and plan to block the Air Canada merger. He alludes they have control or will of the required number of shares and also discusses Onex and some other industry partners to take the operation to the next level should they eventually become a majority shareholder. However, for now he states they only intend to act as a minority shareholder and to make sure the company is run properly.

I get the impression more is definitely going on behind the scenes between them and Onex.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/transat-sho ... -1.1297769
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano » Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:09 pm

Mach tried offering at $14 and couldn't get the time of day from the Transat executive.

He's openly advocating that Transat is poorly managed.

I can imagine it will be no golden parachutes if Mach get a foothold.

What is it in the current deal? $35+million buyout for the top few execs! That's 7% of the value of the entire AC deal! Heck of a finders fee to give it up and walk away! No wonder they prefer AC!

With the large institutional shareholders publicly against the deal already, I think there significant likelihood that this won't pass as is.

Plus up to another 19.5% against if Mach fills their order for these share proxies? And I think they will, some are going to be happy with the certainty to get out at $14, considering they would have took $13, and rather than risk not getting anything for a year and have the deal fall through in the regulatory process.

If I hold TS shares this is a no-brainer.

Out now for a certainty of $14,
Or stay in for a likelihood of $13, and possibility of back to $6.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Daniel Cooper » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:29 am

I hope the Transat shareholders see the Air Canada deal for what it is. A mutual back scratching between Calin and the Transat execs that comes at your cost.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Just another canuck » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:12 am

Lol. I'm glad you guys are so concerned for Transat shareholders. 🙄. You also have no clue what you're talking about.

Mach has never been serious about any offers. Their entire involvement has been an inconsistent joke. And this new scheme is exactly that as well. A deceptive one at that. Certainty of 14 a share? I don't think so. I never wanted to be sold to AC. I would have preferred a foreign investor and maintained the best sked any airline in Canada had to offer.

But AC is the best option for most shareholders at this point. It's also the best option for many thousands of employees. But it's clear some of you could care less about them.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:17 am

Just another canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:12 am
It's also the best option for many thousands of employees. But it's clear some of you could care less about them.
AC not buying AT is the best option for many thousand AC employees...can’t blame us for cheering on Mach. (And don’t worry, I will welcome you into the AC family with open arms if that is forced on us...no grudges, I promise).
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Just another canuck » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:31 am

HavaJava wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:17 am
Just another canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:12 am
It's also the best option for many thousands of employees. But it's clear some of you could care less about them.
AC not buying AT is the best option for many thousand AC employees...can’t blame us for cheering on Mach. (And don’t worry, I will welcome you into the AC family with open arms if that is forced on us...no grudges, I promise).
I disagree. AC acquiring Transat will provide many positives that have already been beaten to death on here. Think long term. This would be good for AC.

And thanks. Couple for weeks and we'll have a better idea of our possible futures. Patience til then.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava » Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:39 am

Just another canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:31 am

I disagree. AC acquiring Transat will provide many positives that have already been beaten to death on here. Think long term. This would be good for AC.
Agree to disagree? It may be a slight net positive for AC shareholders. But it will be a definite negative for AC pilots. No point in rehashing...but I would bet my house that after the dust settles most mid-low seniority AC pilots will take on average a 1.5 year career progression hit...Not great, not terrible.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TFTMB heavy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:35 pm

HavaJava wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:39 am
Just another canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:31 am

I disagree. AC acquiring Transat will provide many positives that have already been beaten to death on here. Think long term. This would be good for AC.
Agree to disagree? It may be a slight net positive for AC shareholders. But it will be a definite negative for AC pilots. No point in rehashing...but I would bet my house that after the dust settles most mid-low seniority AC pilots will take on average a 1.5 year career progression hit...Not great, not terrible.
I'd like to see some math to support that? TS pilots will come with airplanes and are understaffed compared to AC, can't see how this will hurt AC pilots.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:02 pm

TFTMB heavy wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:35 pm


I'd like to see some math to support that? TS pilots will come with airplanes and are understaffed compared to AC, can't see how this will hurt AC pilots.
I strongly believe that the there will be little to no net fin increase at the new merged company. 330's replace retiring 767. Air Canada needs 600 pilots in the next year for our current staffing requirements (conveniently AT has roughly that amount). We are already scraping the barrel with new hires with ~2 years industry experience.

I don't think buying AT has nearly as much to do with routes or aircraft as it does with acquiring experienced pilots. Of course, management would never admit to that because it might make pilots actually realize we are a hot commodity and worth more than what we are currently making.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden » Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:06 pm

TFTMB heavy wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:35 pm
HavaJava wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:39 am
Just another canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:31 am

I disagree. AC acquiring Transat will provide many positives that have already been beaten to death on here. Think long term. This would be good for AC.
Agree to disagree? It may be a slight net positive for AC shareholders. But it will be a definite negative for AC pilots. No point in rehashing...but I would bet my house that after the dust settles most mid-low seniority AC pilots will take on average a 1.5 year career progression hit...Not great, not terrible.
I'd like to see some math to support that? TS pilots will come with airplanes and are understaffed compared to AC, can't see how this will hurt AC pilots.
It can and will effect long term WB Captain upgrades.

Yes even with 20 A330s. Crewed at conservative 15:1 is 300 CA positions. Yet they are bringing 500+ pilots. All of who will now be able to bid into and hold WB and NB CA positions before anyone below them who is already on property.

It may not make a huge difference in where you sit on a NB FO or RP list at the moment, and may not make much of a difference for a Jr upgrade onto an NB, but long term it will absolutely effect total earning potential and lifestyle over a career.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:07 pm

Warden wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:06 pm
It can and will effect long term WB Captain upgrades.

Yes even with 20 A330s. Crewed at conservative 15:1 is 300 CA positions. Yet they are bringing 500+ pilots. All of who will now be able to bid into and hold WB and NB CA positions before anyone below them who is already on property.

It may not make a huge difference in where you sit on a NB FO or RP list at the moment, and may not make much of a difference for a Jr upgrade onto an NB, but long term it will absolutely effect total earning potential and lifestyle over a career.
You aren’t factoring in AT retirements into your equation. Senior AT guys will retire by the time you bid WB Captain so there won’t be 500 ahead of you any more.

If we are lucky enough to actually add 20 330s to the existing fleet (net +20 fins) and if they were actually crewed at 15:1 (usually closer to 10:1 at AC) then I think we would all do ok. I don’t think it will play out like that though
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by FL320 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:15 pm

HavaJava wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:07 pm

You aren’t factoring in AT retirements into your equation. Senior AT guys will retire by the time you bid WB Captain so there won’t be 500 ahead of you any more.

If we are lucky enough to actually add 20 330s to the existing fleet (net +20 fins) and if they were actually crewed at 15:1 (usually closer to 10:1 at AC) then I think we would all do ok. I don’t think it will play out like that though
If we have a merge I’m pretty sure some of our senior Captains will ask for a package and retire earlier. Many guys are not interested in learning a new Ops manual...
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm

AC can add pilots at will. Bottom of the barrel? Have you read recent new hire bios from flag carriers and heavy jets around the world and other Canadian 705 jet airlines?

As for sourcing airplanes... from recently from Singapore, Wow, Qatar, Hawaiian... there are always aircraft available on the world market. And good ones too... Maybe it's time for a deal on a couple 380s to run YYZ-LHR/FRA... YVR even daily... price is right these days!

So I'll take 500 or 600 at the bottom of the list and slower incremental aircraft additions over what are all leases, many high time oldies, which will never see AC paint, and an SLI fight for an over crewed airline.

Good for Calin Rovinescu is not good for AC Pilots.

Mach is going to block this merger anyway. It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by HavaJava » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:51 pm

altiplano wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm
AC can add pilots at will. Bottom of the barrel? Have you read recent new hire bios from flag carriers and heavy jets around the world and other Canadian 705 jet airlines?
I didn't mean bottom of the barrel in a derogatory way. I know there are some high time new hires, but there are A LOT of people with 2-3 years experience who had to do PICUS to get their ATPLs. Perhaps AC is swimming in quality applications...perhaps it's getting tougher for them. Still, 600 ready to go, experienced pilots has got to be tempting.

And I am with you...I'd far rather hire OTS to the bottom of the list to fill the shortage...but Calin doesn't give a shit about that.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by FL320 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:54 pm

altiplano wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 5:35 pm
It's the smart move for any Transat investor who wants to get paid.
No it’s not. I am one of them, like many colleagues and for my own interest I will vote for AC 😉
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