DOH merge.

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TFTMB heavy
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:49 am
tintin42 wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:13 am
altiplano wrote:
Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:41 pm
No.

That's not the deal on offer from Mach.

You are talking about this multi billion dollar business like they are some Nigerian chain letter hacks running a scam to trick people.

Besides, they don't need 40% to get the No vote. With Letko against at about 19%, plus some other large stakeholders uncommitted to the AC deal, Mach might see this deal blocked with well under 19.5% of proxies.
Have you read and understood the full proposal from mach or you just assume it's a fair deal since it's a big investor? That's what the offer is so that's why I don't understand why any shareholder wood take the deal.
I completely understand it.

It's absolutely a good deal for an investor that's happy to sell at $13 and wants to maximize their investment.

Also, if the subscription conditions aren't met by the depositing deadline all proxies are revoked. You can also revoke your proxy after the deadline if you change your mind. The offer is pretty up front and easy to understand and while Transat execs might not like it - no golden pay day and they are going to get fired - investors looking to maximize their gains should like it and cheer a "No" vote.

You are going to get $14 if it's a No, and you are no worse off of its a "Yes".

The idea that they could just take and vote your proxy, get the "No", and then not pay you the promised consideration of $14 within 3 business days for the underlying share is ridiculous. The offer is clear, and I did read it.

Quote in the Mach offer where the deception is. It isn't there. This is a straight forward offer.
This is from the Q&A that Mach put out, pretty clear they will use all deposited shares to vote NO and then only buy up to 19.9% of the shares.

HOW WILL DEPOSITED SHARES BE VOTED?
As a condition of take up and payment of the Shares, a depositing Shareholder is required to appoint the Offeror as its nominee and proxy for the Special Meeting in respect of allShares deposited pursuant to the Offer (the “Deposited Shares”) by August 13, 2019, regardless of the number of Deposited Shares actually taken up and paid for by Offeror.
Upon deposit, the depositing Shareholder will appoint, or instruct the Intermediary of a beneficial Shareholder to appoint, Alfred Buggé, Executive Vice President, Mergers & Acquisitions of Mach and Vincent Chiara, President of Mach, as the proxyholders in respect of the Deposited Shares and to vote against the Arrangement Resolution at the Special Meeting and assign all other rights, including Dissent Rights (as defined below), over the Deposited Shares in favour of the Offeror notwithstanding (i) any Pro Rata Condition (as defined below) and (ii) that the take-up and payment of Deposited Shares occurs within three Business Days following the Expiry Time (as defined below).
THE OFFEROR INTENDS TO VOTE ALL DEPOSITED SHARES AGAINST THE ARRANGEMENT RESOLUTION.
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

You're seeing things and reading incorrectly into that.

They are clear that they will under no circumstances take up more than 19.9% of the shares and will amend the offer to reflect the actual on the 13th and revoke any other proxies.

They can't under the, previously mentioned, shareholder protection rules.

Further, you still retain the ability to revoke your proxy right up to the 23rd.

Smoke and mirrors from Transat as Chiara said.

Bad for 80%? hardly... we know another 20% at Letko is adamantly against it. The next 2 largest are certainly nonplussed on the idea... combined that's a majority right there.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 10:50 am
You're seeing things and reading incorrectly into that.

They are clear that they will under no circumstances take up more than 19.9% of the shares and will amend the offer to reflect the actual on the 13th and revoke any other proxies.

They can't under the, previously mentioned, shareholder protection rules.

Further, you still retain the ability to revoke your proxy right up to the 23rd.

Smoke and mirrors from Transat as Chiara said.

Bad for 80%? hardly... we know another 20% at Letko is adamantly against it. The next 2 largest are certainly nonplussed on the idea... combined that's a majority right there.
Please show me where it says that they will cancel proxies for shares above the 19.9% mark?
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

They can't take over 19.9% subject takeover restrictions, and they will announce the amount of shares acquired on the offer close date.

If you don't think they are going to cancel them, or return them you better pay attention to how many they get and cancel them yourself on the 13th 6pm Montreal time...

I think No is good though, even if you're holding shares. These guys see a new future for Transat beyond just rolling it in...

The other big players aren't a "No" because they think the stock price is going down...
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TSAM »

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Last edited by TSAM on Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

TFTMB heavy
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:27 pm
They can't take over 19.9% subject takeover restrictions, and they will announce the amount of shares acquired on the offer close date.

If you don't think they are going to cancel them, or return them you better pay attention to how many they get and cancel them yourself on the 13th 6pm Montreal time...

I think No is good though, even if you're holding shares. These guys see a new future for Transat beyond just rolling it in...

The other big players aren't a "No" because they think the stock price is going down...
Show me the reference in a Mach publication, I’ve read them all on this subject and what you advance I have not seen.
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

TFTMB heavy wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:01 pm
altiplano wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 1:27 pm
They can't take over 19.9% subject takeover restrictions, and they will announce the amount of shares acquired on the offer close date.

If you don't think they are going to cancel them, or return them you better pay attention to how many they get and cancel them yourself on the 13th 6pm Montreal time...

I think No is good though, even if you're holding shares. These guys see a new future for Transat beyond just rolling it in...

The other big players aren't a "No" because they think the stock price is going down...
Show me the reference in a Mach publication, I’ve read them all on this subject and what you advance I have not seen.
I'm not going to do your reading for you. If you don't understand why they are limited to 19.9% and that they will announce on the 13th where the offer stands/amends than you maybe are missing something.

Even if they voted more than 19.9%, it won't change the outcome. Letko + Mach with their min offer would be nearly 40% and would defeat the deal. I don't think it has the support anyway though, so what happens here might not matter
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

TSAM wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 7:06 pm
Do you think a NO vote will be good for AC and AC pilots? AC will just up the purchase price to $14-15/share. You may not get a profit share next year. You may not get as much salary increase in a an opener. Sure there's more at stake than just money, but so far your concerns are unfounded and unproven at this point, all just hearsay, you have no idea how things will play out, no one does. It's often said pilots don't have the big picture, I wonder why they say that?.....
I think it will be good for AC pilots. More than whatever good you perceive it might be for the greater AC.

We're doing great as is, thanks.

Take barely any your overstaffed lease fleet and as
ll the trouble integrating your organisation will bring. No thanks.

I'll reiterate the day that it happens, if it happens, I'll work for consensus and unity, but until it does In against it 1000% as an employee and a shareholder. It's nothing personal.
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TheStig
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by TheStig »

altiplano wrote:
Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:24 pm

We're doing great as is, thanks.
Not that I even completely disagree with you, but just for discussions sake. 8 Years ago I was dead-set against rouge, I didn't want the disruption I perceived in what I felt my career path was projected to be, I believed there was not merit to the business case and it would eventually be sold off.

Fast forward, AC has grown rapidly, Westjet's expansion and business model has been disrupted and the airline has been profitable enough to buy one of our biggest competitors. You could try and make the argument that this might have happened anyways with out rouge and AC was poised to grow due to external factors and the industries upwards cycle, but that's a difficult argument to make just based on opinion.

What I'm trying to get at is that, if it benefits AC, it can benefit all of us, maybe just not in the short-term. I see it as an opportunity to get rid of one of two of large Canadian competitors, that will drive profitability upwards. Consolidation in the US market is what lead to profits, profits lead to pay. I believe that the ability to open the contract 4 years ahead of 2024 is a tremendous opportunity for significant gains.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade »

TheStig wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:04 am


What I'm trying to get at is that, if it benefits AC, it can benefit all of us, maybe just not in the short-term. I see it as an opportunity to get rid of one of two of large Canadian competitors, that will drive profitability upwards. Consolidation in the US market is what lead to profits, profits lead to pay. I believe that the ability to open the contract 4 years ahead of 2024 is a tremendous opportunity for significant gains.
Careful consolidation can go very wrong as well. Consolidated between AC/CDN in 2000 was to give AC massive market share and allow the combined entities to be profitable. Instead it gave WestJet, small at the time, an opportunity to grow and take the lion share for itself. The lesson? The lower cost competition won the battle for the economic spoils of consolidation. Not the merged entities.

What we don’t know is what the competitions reaction will be to an AC/AT merge and there will be a response. Sunwing, Air France/KLM, tour companies such as Thomas Cook or TUI. Competition Bureau here and in the EU.

I can guarantee one thing. Even if they approve the merger......actually especially if they approve the merger, the competition bureau will make certain AC does not lock up markets and that competition is given footholds moving forward. AC won’t have 100% of the combined market share 10 years from now.

To believe there won’t be retraction from the combined size after consolidation is fooling oneself. It almost always happens. Not immediately, but almost always.
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

I appreciate your perspective, and more discussion.

Rouge is not (allegedly) successful because of second rate wawcon for pilots. It is successful because of the higher seat density and lower frill costs drive the lower casm.

I say allegedly, because we really don't know. It's not seperated out in financials. It certainly has resulted in our stagnation of Mainline conditions as we sought to narrow the gap, so the corporation certainly succeeded in that respect.

Also air travel around the world has seen unprecedented growth in all markets, all sectors. There is no reason to suggest that our lower wawcon is the crux of growth at rouge or Mainline.

How did the last integration of a struggling competitor work out? Do we still enjoy all their market share? No, it was filled by upstart carriers, primarily Westjet. Just as Westjet adds 787 ops we look at opening up the market, giving up routes, slots, gates from a mutual competitor... just as flair and jetlines come along, swoop, etc... There is no way all those Transat aircraft make the move, there is no way all those routes and flights make the move in an integration.

Opening the contract could be a double edged sword, particularly as you integrate a new LCC. You may see it all arbitrated into a new C-scale as they integrate TS/LOU 74 and grow the LCC. A lot of unknowns there. I have faith in our new NC Chair, not the VC though, and not about 40% of our MEC... I'm not sure how the potential new arrivals will fit the landscape either. Turbulent time to open the contract.

I might like to see Rovinescu gone before we make any big moves. That guy is a stone, can't get a drop if water... if you want anything without having to give on everything else, you are going to have to be prepared to take it to the streets... We always give more than we get anytime we are in a quid pro quo arrangement with him. Sometimes what we get disappears!

We also need to find some stronger leadership at ACPA if we want gains. We need to see that pressure applied to change the mindsets of some in the line... the idea that we aren't worth more, that we have to use offsets to achieve gains, the idea that we need to work more to earn more. We need a fucking history lesson.

We are starting to see moves in the right direction, but as far as I'm concerned the air over there is still too polite, too much fear of rocking the boat. Too many statements like: "The Company will never go for that" or "The Company has said that's a non-starter".

Maybe Rob Giguere will change that somewhat. He's got nothing to lose and maybe an axe to grind with AC management.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Babar350 »

Very interesting discussion.

What I see here is upper management wants this deal because it is good for them, not for the pilots.
They know AC has the best wawcon in Canada so they don't feel owing you something.
That guy is a stone, can't get a drop if water
That's why investors like him.
If pilots want something, they need to be ready to stand firm and don't forget they are AC and not Jazz.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade »

TheStig wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:04 am
I believe that the ability to open the contract 4 years ahead of 2024 is a tremendous opportunity for significant gains.
Stig,

I hear you, but I don’t share your confidence in ACPA. In fact the idea of having the contract open up under ACPA down right scares me, considering the turmoil that will be underway. My first thought is......which toe do we blow off this time?????

The only positive I can see is that a merger will lead to a representation vote. With an opener under ALPA I would feel much more comfortable.

Altiplano,

You called me crazy last time for a similar comment. To be clear during a merger integration the elected representation takes over all aspect of representation, with the EXCEPTION of seniority integration. ACPA would still have full autonomy over seniority integration.

That might make you feel better, but it shouldn’t. ALPA will clobber ACPA unless we have learned from the last integration.

With that said, I’m also wondering if this deal is dead.

Cheers.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade »

altiplano wrote:
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:38 am

We also need to find some stronger leadership at ACPA if we want gains.
It’s not the people that is the problem. It’s our structure. It’s lack of resources. It’s making decisions without quality input from resources that know what they are talking about.

To put it in pilot speak. You can’t make a quality decision to land at a specific airport when someone gives you erroneous information on runway conditions.
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

AC ups it to $18.

Secures Letko support for acquisition.

AC new hire courses postponed.

Good luck everyone wherever you sit and whatever happens.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

Re ALPA, - I am generally pro-ALPA. I wouldn't have a problem if we transitioned ACPA to ALPA, but not like this. ALPA wants us and we can make gains in the deal by negotiating a Union merger. We already secured Group A carrier status with our own EVP at the head table. We also secured seperate election to be held for Canada board and no voting position for ALPA C president at the head table. Allied/American recently secured a rate reduction to entice them more... There is money on the table here, if you just give it up we lose that.

Also, there is no way I'm voting Transat's representation to take over representing us at AC unless it's a complete bump and flush of all committees and positions.

I have no problem with experienced TS pilot involvement, but I'm not handing over the keys to the top positions to guys that just showed up on the property. I want AC guys in the key positions who know our contract, our issues, and our past until we get up and running as a unified group. Then open it up for election.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by FL320 »

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Last edited by FL320 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Fanblade »

altiplano wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:20 pm
Re ALPA, - I am generally pro-ALPA. I wouldn't have a problem if we transitioned ACPA to ALPA, but not like this. ALPA wants us and we can make gains in the deal by negotiating a Union merger. We already secured Group A carrier status with our own EVP at the head table. We also secured seperate election to be held for Canada board and no voting position for ALPA C president at the head table. Allied/American recently secured a rate reduction to entice them more... There is money on the table here, if you just give it up we lose that.
Been listening to that for more than three years now. The deal went cold. Ask your ACPA rep why. Probably get a more accurate response by asking someone at Transat or Jazz why.

Any takers on the Transat side?

I'm voting ALPA. Hands down. : I do not believe ACPA will put a ring on it as Beyonce would say.

If we vote ACPA we will still be having this conversation a decade from now.......minus three more toes and a finger
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden »

altiplano wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:10 pm
AC ups it to $18.

Secures Letko support for acquisition.

AC new hire courses postponed.

Good luck everyone wherever you sit and whatever happens.
Where do you see AC new hire courses postphone?

You DO realize that even with 550 AT pilots who likely won't be here for a year still, we are still short hundreds of pilots.. right?

Congrats to anyone who held their Air Transat stock after the announcement and didn't sell to market.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden »

Fanblade wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:33 pm
altiplano wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:20 pm
Re ALPA, - I am generally pro-ALPA. I wouldn't have a problem if we transitioned ACPA to ALPA, but not like this. ALPA wants us and we can make gains in the deal by negotiating a Union merger. We already secured Group A carrier status with our own EVP at the head table. We also secured seperate election to be held for Canada board and no voting position for ALPA C president at the head table. Allied/American recently secured a rate reduction to entice them more... There is money on the table here, if you just give it up we lose that.
Been listening to that for more than three years now. The deal went cold. Ask your ACPA rep why. Probably get a more accurate response by asking someone at Transat or Jazz why.

Any takers on the Transat side?

I'm voting ALPA. Hands down. : I do not believe ACPA will put a ring on it as Beyonce would say.

If we vote ACPA we will still be having this conversation a decade from now.......minus three more toes and a finger
Want a little ALPA inside info?

ACPA was given everything they wanted, and still walked away. Makes you wonder why...

And Altiplano, if we vote and ALPA takes over you do realize that the entire LEC/MEC goes to vote, right? The AT reps don't just step in and take over. And since committes are appointed by the MEC, they also vacate by default and everything starts fresh, just with a lot more support from a real union and members from other ALPA carriers come in to help. I really wonder how much you actually know about unions, mergers and how it all works.... The ACPA koolaide is strong at Air Canada and has been since the ACPA night when I was hired. So I don't blame you.

If it goes to a vote, I am voting ALPA.
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altiplano
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by altiplano »

Zing.

This would be my first Union merger. As I said bump and flush and I'll consider it. I'd want it laid out clearly immediate flush and new vote... no interim period.

I'm not voting for anything that results in a recently AT guy just became AC guy to lead a new Air Canada pilot group.

At least not at first... once we're united and on the same page I'll support whoever will do the job best.

For courses, I guess we'll see... I heard the one this week may be the last for a while... they may have moved a few up into it last minute. I imagine until the CMSC training picture is formed and the AT acquisition takes shape they have their hands full

Previously they were planning 26, 9, 30 I think... Well see if they happen.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden »

altiplano wrote:
Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:56 pm
Zing.

This would be my first Union merger. As I said bump and flush and I'll consider it. I'd want it laid out clearly immediate flush and new vote... no interim period.

I'm not voting for anything that results in a recently AT guy just became AC guy to lead a new Air Canada pilot group.

At least not at first...
It's the law.

Interim, both unions represent the members of their own "sides" while elections happen. Then once elections happen the groups are represented by one MEC/Union for negotiations purposes but both "sides" continue to work under their respective contracts until a new contract is negotiated.

As for an AT guy leading the group. He just may, but it would require the majority vote. No one gets grandfathered into a position.

And keep in mind this goes both ways. From my understanding if ACPA wins the popular vote for representation we have elections again. Otherwise it opens up situations where an AT pilot can file a DFR since they didn't get to vote for the individuals representing them.

So basically, expect an election.

Calls have already gone out for the 9th of Sept. I know a half dozen people who have already given notice at their prior jobs.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Babar350 »

So next move, Onex with Mach support buys Sunwing ?
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Daniel Cooper »

If they are postponing new hire classes it probably means they decided to reduce the MAX. It's not about the merger other than them putting all their eggs in the Transat fleet as a replacement for it. The training department is about to be very busy.
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Re: DOH merge.

Post by Warden »

I have no idea where anyone is getting any info on reducing classes. Show me the report?

There's a class starting tomorrow and another on Sept 9th.
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