AC and TRZ Agree to Terminate Arrangement

[dialdriver]

This thread is the ultimate pissing contest.

[mbav8r]

This thread is the ultimate pissing contest.

Shhhh...
Don’t ruin the entertainment!
Fact is, nobody knows for sure, if the market though it was a done deal the stock would be 18ish dollars.
Anybody remember the price of TRZ shares when the deal was announced?

[FL320]

This thread is the ultimate pissing contest.

Shhhh...
Don’t ruin the entertainment!
Fact is, nobody knows for sure, if the market though it was a done deal the stock would be 18ish dollars.
Anybody remember the price of TRZ shares when the deal was announced?

Never trust the market; it’s a key to the success.

[727driver]

CR has many options at his disposal and will use the one that has the greatest chance of success, will deliver the best value for investors and secure the corporation’s future success.

I believe renegotiation of the terms of the agreement are highly likely if the deal proceeds forward. Right now both companies have excess staff and excess capacity and will continue to in the future. If the recovery is poised to be slower than first anticipated than there is a need to cut capacity and associated costs on both a long and short term basis. As normally happens in these types of recoveries the leisure part of the market recovers more slowly than the regular business or network passenger of which TS has little to none. The TS brand for leisure travellers still has value and the vertical integration of the operation with sales, res, properties and packages has some value however the flight ops is purely a cost and capacity control element that does not generate much if any profit on its own for the operation. The “Air Transat” flight ops division carries no real assets or value other than the experience and skills of the employees. Planes are leased, crews comparably compensated when compared to Rouge and AC already has an infrastructure in place with maintenance, dispatch, ramp and ground staff too. All AC needs to do is sell excess capacity of which it will have plenty to Transat Tours for the next while. Flight ops at TS has always been viewed as more of a necessary evil unfortunately. I have heard JME on many investor conference calls correct questioners and state “We are not an airline; we are a tour operator that owns and operates a fleet of aircraft so we can control the cost and capacity to get our tour package customers to the destination.” Air Canada is the opposite in this case since it’s flight ops is the bread and butter and generates the majority of the revenue and profit. It is entirely conceivable that If the deal proceeds it may proceed with the TS flight ops division carved out of the deal especially if the Minister asks for Air Canada to give up slots at Gatwick, Heathrow, Rome or Paris. The brand, properties, inventory management, sales and travel agencies are the true value of the operation. With operators shrinking current and future fleets the argument that Air Canada needs the Transat fleet does not hold water any longer. The last thing Air Canada needs right now and for the next year is more staff and more aircraft when coming out of this.

This is a very difficult time and pain will be felt all over. I am wishing everyone good heath through this pandemic and a speedy recovery to our economy and industry so we can get back to doing what we love. I am fearful of the future of the Transat pilots and flight attendants and pray my scenario is dead wrong. I was told at a very young age “Plan for the worst and hope for the best.” Those words ring loud today. Bonne chance tout le monde.

[FL320]

CR has many options at his disposal and will use the one that has the greatest chance of success, will deliver the best value for investors and secure the corporation’s future success.

I believe renegotiation of the terms of the agreement are highly likely if the deal proceeds forward. Right now both companies have excess staff and excess capacity and will continue to in the future. If the recovery is poised to be slower than first anticipated than there is a need to cut capacity and associated costs on both a long and short term basis. As normally happens in these types of recoveries the leisure part of the market recovers more slowly than the regular business or network passenger of which TS has little to none. The TS brand for leisure travellers still has value and the vertical integration of the operation with sales, res, properties and packages has some value however the flight ops is purely a cost and capacity control element that does not generate much if any profit on its own for the operation. The “Air Transat” flight ops division carries no real assets or value other than the experience and skills of the employees. Planes are leased, crews comparably compensated when compared to Rouge and AC already has an infrastructure in place with maintenance, dispatch, ramp and ground staff too. All AC needs to do is sell excess capacity of which it will have plenty to Transat Tours for the next while. Flight ops at TS has always been viewed as more of a necessary evil unfortunately. I have heard JME on many investor conference calls correct questioners and state “We are not an airline; we are a tour operator that owns and operates a fleet of aircraft so we can control the cost and capacity to get our tour package customers to the destination.” Air Canada is the opposite in this case since it’s flight ops is the bread and butter and generates the majority of the revenue and profit. It is entirely conceivable that If the deal proceeds it may proceed with the TS flight ops division carved out of the deal especially if the Minister asks for Air Canada to give up slots at Gatwick, Heathrow, Rome or Paris. The brand, properties, inventory management, sales and travel agencies are the true value of the operation. With operators shrinking current and future fleets the argument that Air Canada needs the Transat fleet does not hold water any longer. The last thing Air Canada needs right now and for the next year is more staff and more aircraft when coming out of this.

This is a very difficult time and pain will be felt all over. I am wishing everyone good heath through this pandemic and a speedy recovery to our economy and industry so we can get back to doing what we love. I am fearful of the future of the Transat pilots and flight attendants and pray my scenario is dead wrong. I was told at a very young age “Plan for the worst and hope for the best.” Those words ring loud today. Bonne chance tout le monde.

+1

[rudder]

The global airline industry is at a standstill. 30 more days? Try 2-3 months. Q2 is a total right off. Q3? Only question is how much money will be lost.

Credible forecasters are now talking in to the 2022/2023 time frame before full travel recovery, meaning a return to pre-COVID revenues and profits. Meanwhile, there will be airline failures.

ALL of the major US carriers (the worlds largest airlines) are projecting YOY revenue declines Q4 2020 on the order of 30%, and that may be optimistic. International traffic may remain most impacted travel segment.

All bets are off. There is going to be a recalibration in the industry. And if the demand drought remains -25% or more, there will be right sizing on a massive scale. And some operators will be forced to use bankruptcy protection to unload leases and perhaps take another swipe at organized labour.

It is quickly dawning on the Executive floors that COVID depressed travel demand will not be a short lived deep blip on the radar. The crystal balls are coming out gaming whether it will be -10%, -20%, -30%, or more. And those forecasts will then form revised fleet plan and schedule.

Airlines that can draw down capacity fastest and at the lowest penalty expense will be better positioned out the other side, whenever that may be.

[dhc#]

What source(s) are you referencing for "Credible forecasters" ?

[Sharklasers]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21K3KL

“ Data firm OAG said that several years of industry growth had been lost and that it could take until 2022 or 2023 before the volume of fliers returns to the levels that had been expected for 2020.”

https://skift.com/2020/04/02/united-air ... snap-back/

[rudder]

What source(s) are you referencing for "Credible forecasters" ?

Large Global Airline CEO’s. Airline industry analysts.

You might be surprised what airline CEO’s south of the border are telling their staff at virtual town halls.

Thanks Sharklasers.

[Fanblade]

I think for a lot of people this is still just sinking in. But it is slowly.

Until we achieve herd immunity this isn’t stopping. Once we “flatten the curve” our attention will be turned to keeping it flat. Social distancing will remain in effect until herd immunity is achieved. Unless of course we follow what Trump suggested. Just let Covid rip through the population. Survival of the fittest. He is right though. That would be a faster way to herd immunity and therefor economically speaking better. Loss of life not so much. Isn’t he 70?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

That means 85-95% of the population has either had Covid19 or has had the vaccination.

You tell me when a vaccine will be ready, distributed and then administered to 85% of the population. Logistically that doesn’t happen this year. Then I can tell you when we are past this.

Oh yeah. For all the anti vaccers out there. If you cause a lack of herd immunity for things like the measles, rubella? People will die like today from Covid.

[dialdriver]

I think for a lot of people this is still just sinking in. But it is slowly.

Until we achieve herd immunity this isn’t stopping. Once we “flatten the curve” our attention will be turned to keeping it flat. Social distancing will remain in effect until herd immunity is achieved. Unless of course we follow what a trump suggested. Just let Covid rip through the population. Survival of the fittest. He is right though. That would be a faster way to herd immunity and therefor economically speaking better. Loss of life not so much.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

That means 85-95% of the population has either had Covid19 or has had the vaccination.

You tell me when a vaccine will be ready, distributed and then administered. Logistically that doesn’t happen this year. Then I can tell you when we are past this.

Oh yeah. For all the anti vaccers out there. If you cause a lack of herd immunity for things like the measles, rubella? People will die like today from Covid.

The fastest solution is 100% of the population isolating for 2 weeks. The virus would not be able to find a new host and would be eradicated. But, the world is not that simple a place.

[rudder]

The fastest solution is 100% of the population isolating for 2 weeks. The virus would not be able to find a new host and would be eradicated. But, the world is not that simple a place.

The US has magnified and extended the COVID event through its delayed and disjointed response.

It is the single largest aviation market on the planet. Implied, is that there will be COVID hotspots in the US for many months to come.

Any international carrier that relies on traffic in and out of the US will continue to be significantly impacted.

Add to that any other global hotspot.

The impact on air travel demand not going away any time soon.

[Fanblade]

I think for a lot of people this is still just sinking in. But it is slowly.

Until we achieve herd immunity this isn’t stopping. Once we “flatten the curve” our attention will be turned to keeping it flat. Social distancing will remain in effect until herd immunity is achieved. Unless of course we follow what a trump suggested. Just let Covid rip through the population. Survival of the fittest. He is right though. That would be a faster way to herd immunity and therefor economically speaking better. Loss of life not so much.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

That means 85-95% of the population has either had Covid19 or has had the vaccination.

You tell me when a vaccine will be ready, distributed and then administered. Logistically that doesn’t happen this year. Then I can tell you when we are past this.

Oh yeah. For all the anti vaccers out there. If you cause a lack of herd immunity for things like the measles, rubella? People will die like today from Covid.

The fastest solution is 100% of the population isolating for 2 weeks. The virus would not be able to find a new host and would be eradicated. But, the world is not that simple a place.

Nope wouldn’t work unless everyone was isolated separately. If a Covid positive individual is isolated with someone else, maybe a child, spouse or elder you need to go a further 2 weeks of isolation beyond the END of symptoms from the Covid positive individual to make sure. If another person in that isolation unit gets symptoms another two week period is required beyond the end of those symptoms. For a family of 4 that is potentially 3 months.

By the way if you get a call from your provincial health authority warning you that you inadvertently came in contact with Covid19. This will be the instruction you get.

Even then all it takes is one asymptomatic individual and it starts all over.

Herd immunity is the only thing that ends this. We have 3 choices to achieve that. 1) everyone gets it. 2) everyone gets the vaccine. 3) combo of 1 and 2

Options 1, 2 or 3 are not achievable this year.

[dhc#]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21K3KL

“ Data firm OAG said that several years of industry growth had been lost and that it could take until 2022 or 2023 before the volume of fliers returns to the levels that had been expected for 2020.”

https://skift.com/2020/04/02/united-air ... snap-back/

Thanks for the links...

Interesting comments regarding the estimation regarding the composition of United Airlines fleet, especially the future of 50 seaters.

[Fanblade]

After being such a downer I decided that wasn’t an appropriate picture. Really one of hope is better. The vaccine is well on its way. Injection of antibodies even closer. The research done after SARS has drastically reduced response time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDBVwqN ... TV1XEAKQys

[rudder]

Trying hard not to stray too far off the thread topic but here is more public information about the state of the industry south of the border -

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/business ... fbbusiness

[dialdriver]

Nope wouldn’t work unless everyone was isolated separately.

That's what I meant by 100% isolation. It would eradicate the virus.

[tintin42]

I posted this before, but no one answered. How long do you guys think airlines can survive bleeding money like this before needing money from the government? I know that at Transat we can survive one year with the company as it is. How about Air Canada? I’m not trying to piss anyone off, I’m genuinely curious with almost all the pilots beings still on the payroll and flights being operated almost empty, I’m worried about the future. Like a lot of you said, it’s going to take a log time before travelling restart to grow.

[Hangry]

I posted this before, but no one answered. How long do you guys think airlines can survive bleeding money like this before needing money from the government? I know that at Transat we can survive one year with the company as it is. How about Air Canada? I’m not trying to piss anyone off, I’m genuinely curious with almost all the pilots beings still on the payroll and flights being operated almost empty, I’m worried about the future. Like a lot of you said, it’s going to take a log time before travelling restart to grow.

Of course no one knows the answer. Pilots don't know these type of things and I'm sure the people in the know aren't going to jump on and fill you in.

Probably not very long. Not as long as this thing is going to take to turn around that's for sure. I don't think it matters how much money Transat has. It's going to be long gone before everything turns around. Probably AC too, in its current form.

Daddy Trudeau very well might open the wallet to the airline industry. But it won't be for everyone. It will be for the national carrier and only them, because that's what Canada needs, regardless of feelings.

Transat, Sunwing, WJ, are great in boom times but quite unnecessary otherwise. If we're talking in "necessities". The TS deal may very well go through.....certainly not because AC wants/needs it anymore, but because it will probably save some jobs, which is a good thing in the long run.

[pelmet]

Nope wouldn’t work unless everyone was isolated separately.

That's what I meant by 100% isolation. It would eradicate the virus.

In the real world....won't work. What should be done is a quarantine of everybody over 55 for 2 months starting immediately. As well, Everybody under 55(about 75-80% of the workforce) gets back to work and out doing normal stuff. In fact, we all try to rub close together, get the disease and get it over with. Then there is close herd immunity. Meanwhile, the economy starts back up. A small percentage will die, just like in any flu year(and likely a few more). Meanwhile, those over 55 who insist on not doing this can come out too(your rights are not taken away) but you have to sign a waiver...last in line for treatment if you need hospitalization.

Not pretty but it gets the economy going and many over 55's can still work. The actual cutoff age could vary. People under 55 could still self isolate voluntarily.