AC and TRZ Agree to Terminate Arrangement

[FL-280]

? I didnt just get out of probation but ok thanks.

[FL320]

? I didnt just get out of probation but ok thanks.

You were thinking of not going to AC exactly one year ago...by the time you joined the company, get the training...you’re already Captain, and of course you’re out of the 1 year probation because you’re better than any other new hire. Wow!

[FL-280]

lol. No captain seats under one year at AC, so congrats you caught my lie. You really tracked me down from a year ago hahaha. it makes me feel better about my time usage of this crappy forum.
YYZ narrowbody FO, and yes in my first year

[altiplano]

If you upgrade ahead of 1 year, you get released from probation.

[DanWEC]

Wow upgrades are really quick at AC; less than a year ago in your case?

Around that yeah. Did it to get off the horrible flat pay we have

You just went out of probation and you’re already flying left seat at AC, honestly....congrats!

Haha! Oh well done. I think everyone rolled their eyes a little at the captain claim, thanks for proving it. Not surprising he'd be making stuff up given the level of insecurity being displayed.

Anyways,

Mentioned earlier that the merger would be an overall negative for the AC group. We can all agree that 600 pilots is virtuallly a drop in the bucket, and your union certainly won't just let everything go to shit for you, But what about the clear positives?

You guys must hate the 4 year flat pay. The whole industry does. What about having another contract on the property with much better compensation on the entry level? Regardless how the groups are merged/operated that's going to be a lot of ammunition to improve it.

[skypirate88]

Around that yeah. Did it to get off the horrible flat pay we have

You just went out of probation and you’re already flying left seat at AC, honestly....congrats!

Haha! Oh well done. I think everyone rolled their eyes a little at the captain claim, thanks for proving it. Not surprising he'd be making stuff up given the level of insecurity being displayed.

Anyways,

Mentioned earlier that the merger would be an overall negative for the AC group. We can all agree that 600 pilots is virtuallly a drop in the bucket, and your union certainly won't just let everything go to shit for you, But what about the clear positives?

You guys must hate the 4 year flat pay. The whole industry does. What about having another contract on the property with much better compensation on the entry level? Regardless how the groups are merged/operated that's going to be a lot of ammunition to improve it.

600 pilots may have been a drop in the bucket but post Covid 600 pilots could be very detrimental to those on the property now depending on how the acquisition goes through.

[rudder]

With or without the merger, 600-900 junior AC pilots are highly exposed to layoff based on where the company decides to go with fleet/routes/capacity in response to COVID and estimated demand recovery. That goes potentially back in to 2018 DOH. Lots of upgrades cancelled. Lots of CA downgraded.

That is the bad news. The good news is that there is no suggestion that AC will disappear. Whether the recovery is in 2021/2022/2023 there will be jobs for layoffs to return to.

What is the range of outcomes for surplus pilots at TS? SW? Flair? Porter? All have different business models. Most are shut down completely. No suggestion that anything resembling previous capacity will be restored in 2020 at any of these carriers. Layoffs commencing in 2020 will continue in to 2021 for many. Corporate viability an issue depending on ability to right size and exit previous fixed expense commitments.

Things are most likely to get worse from an employment security basis before they get better. Adding a merger is a layer of complexity not previously undertaken. That will be a factor for both the corporation and, if consummated, for labour.

[altiplano]

600 are a certainty in May/June.

900? Maybe more like 900 more in October.

I think surplus will show deeper in fact, although depending on the recovery, training may not catch up to see all go off property. I think we could see sub 3000 by the end of the year depending on how ACPA plays it. So adding 600 or 700 with 1200 or so on the street and the rest of us job sharing isn't insignificant.

How has Transat managed the surplus staff? Are there any guys taking early retirement incentives or anything similar? Are you guys all planning on coming back at once when you start flying again? When is that? Will there be reduced hours? How about your fleet? What's going on there? 310s gone. What's up with three leases? When do you get your next 320neo?

[FL320]

How has Transat managed the surplus staff? Are there any guys taking early retirement incentives or anything similar? Are you guys all planning on coming back at once when you start flying again? When is that? Will there be reduced hours? How about your fleet? What's going on there? 310s gone. What's up with three leases? When do you get your next 320neo?

We have no idea, we get the infos at the same time as you in the newspapers. As far as I know, no early retirement incentives. They will most probably restart the operations with limited workforce and on the A321neoLR on transatlantic routes (apparently 2xA321LR are less expensive than an A330). The good news is that we already have people making bookings for July and even for next winter. I am not working behind the scene but I find the company too quiet, and I am surprised they are not fighting harder to get some cargo contracts or ACMI like other airlines. My conspiracy theory is that AT is just doing what AC told them to do.

[DanWEC]

Rudder, do your potential AC layoff predictions account for the current 900 pilot vacancy as well, or are those vacancies scalable based on modified growth?

One thing is for certain, OTS hiring will surely be completely halted for a year at least.

[rudder]

600 are a certainty in May/June.

900? Maybe more like 900 more in October.

I think surplus will show deeper in fact, although depending on the recovery, training may not catch up to see all go off property. I think we could see sub 3000 by the end of the year depending on how ACPA plays it.

A friend of a friend of a friend...... said that -2000 Positions was under consideration.

900 vacancies were previously unfilled. Approx 150 ERIP. Throw in another 50-80 normal retirements over the next 14 months. That leaves 850-900 surplus.

Hopefully less. Perhaps further mitigation is under discussion. -1 777 CA not taking ERIP creates a lot of cascading training events. Problem is that the largest gauge aircraft will be the least in demand unless seat blocking becomes mandatory. I have no idea how anybody will make money when pre-COVID BELF was 75-80%.

[altiplano]

One thing is for certain, OTS hiring will surely be completely halted for a year at least.

If they lay off in those numbers, forget OTS, it will be AT LEAST 2-3 years before anyone/everyone is recalled.

[rudder]

One thing is for certain, OTS hiring will surely be completely halted for a year at least.

If they lay off in those numbers, forget OTS, it will be 2-3 years before everyone is recalled.

At a minimum, there should be some form of ‘mutuality’ developed within the AC brand family of pilots.

Neither Skyregional, nor Jazz, nor AC should be hiring OTS when an AC or Express pilot is on involuntary layoff. And while it appears that Skyregional and Jazz are most impacted by relative surplus in the near term, nobody’s crystal ball will accurately forecast when their respective junior layoff will be recalled.

Each pilot group should make a commitment that they will secure an undertaking from their employer to hire SKY/Jazz/AC pilots on layoff prior to OTS. It doesn’t cost anybody any of their seniority.

[yhz41]

One thing is for certain, OTS hiring will surely be completely halted for a year at least.

If they lay off in those numbers, forget OTS, it will be 2-3 years before everyone is recalled.

At a minimum, there should be some form of ‘mutuality’ developed within the AC brand family of pilots.

Neither Skyregional, nor Jazz, nor AC should be hiring OTS when an AC or Express pilot is on involuntary layoff. And while it appears that Skyregional and Jazz are most impacted by relative surplus in the near term, nobody’s crystal ball will accurately forecast when their respective junior layoff will be recalled.

Each pilot group should make a commitment that they will secure an undertaking from their employer to hire SKY/Jazz/AC pilots on layoff prior to OTS. It doesn’t cost anybody any of their seniority.

That's a perspective I hadn't heard but it is a very good one.

[sanjet]

My conspiracy theory is that AT is just doing what AC told them to do.

Could be also AT board members just thinking its a done deal, and just hand AC the bag and let them deal with it.

[TFTMB heavy]

One thing is for certain, OTS hiring will surely be completely halted for a year at least.

If they lay off in those numbers, forget OTS, it will be 2-3 years before everyone is recalled.

At a minimum, there should be some form of ‘mutuality’ developed within the AC brand family of pilots.

Neither Skyregional, nor Jazz, nor AC should be hiring OTS when an AC or Express pilot is on involuntary layoff. And while it appears that Skyregional and Jazz are most impacted by relative surplus in the near term, nobody’s crystal ball will accurately forecast when their respective junior layoff will be recalled.

Each pilot group should make a commitment that they will secure an undertaking from their employer to hire SKY/Jazz/AC pilots on layoff prior to OTS. It doesn’t cost anybody any of their seniority.

This is standard practice for ALPA carriers> When fellow ALPA pilots are on layoff and their company hires the MEC request the company interview all ALPA pilots that apply.

[FL-280]

Then one would think the regional carriers would help each other out... ie Jazz/Sky.

[DanWEC]

Well, at least us quibbling here all have good positions to eventually go back to, in whatever incarnation they may be.

I feel terrible for the guys in places they don't want to be for whatever reason, and are watching their career progression suddenly slide back by 2, 3 years or maybe more depending on what tier they're at. We're really arguing first world problems in here. I'm considering myself fortunate even though I'm flying a couch for the foreseeable future.

[ayseven]

It is not fun for anybody, particularly younger people with new families. Everyone has their own story, but it will end eventually.

[iflyroads]

600 are a certainty in May/June.

900? Maybe more like 900 more in October.

I think surplus will show deeper in fact, although depending on the recovery, training may not catch up to see all go off property. I think we could see sub 3000 by the end of the year depending on how ACPA plays it.

A friend of a friend of a friend...... said that -2000 Positions was under consideration.

Perhaps we have the same friends then. I too have heard the -2000 number. Made my stomach sink.