Most useful forecast when planning a X-Country

[avcraig]

Out of these four options, what would you say be the most useful weather forecast when planning a cross country?

1. TAF
2. METAR
3. AWOS
4. FD

A couple of my buddies were having a conversation on this, and we would like to hear what the people on Avcanada think.

Thanks.

[Cherep777]

1) GFA, TAF. Radar..
Metar - is not a forecast.

[CpnCrunch]

It's the one you're missing

[JetSetter87]

All of them. Always paint a 3D image of the weather. Never rely on only 1 source/type.

[JasonE]

Don't forget to look at windy.com as well. Use all the information you can access to make your best judgement.

[Tail-Chaser]

I start with the METAR at departure, then the TAF, then GFA with some TAFs along the route. Combine that with FD info for cruise calculations, then TAF and METAR for destination. As others have said, use every available resource to paint yourself a picture of what is going on up there and what is likely to happen as time passes. Radar and satellite data can also be extremely helpful.

[lownslow]

I do literally the opposite of Tail-Chaser: GFA to get the mechanism that’s driving the weather, TAFs to fine tune exactly where and when the changes are, then METARs to validate the TAFs.

[flyingjerry]

I do literally the opposite of Tail-Chaser: GFA to get the mechanism that’s driving the weather, TAFs to fine tune exactly where and when the changes are, then METARs to validate the TAFs.

2nd this.

[Tail-Chaser]

Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

[JetSetter87]

I do literally the opposite of Tail-Chaser: GFA to get the mechanism that’s driving the weather, TAFs to fine tune exactly where and when the changes are, then METARs to validate the TAFs.

I also 2nd this.

[JetSetter87]

I do literally the opposite of Tail-Chaser: GFA to get the mechanism that’s driving the weather, TAFs to fine tune exactly where and when the changes are, then METARs to validate the TAFs.

I also 2nd this.

[lownslow]

Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

It’s really just semantics if you’re taking in all three at once. Whatever works best to build a picture of it all for yourself is really the right answer.

[Tail-Chaser]

Different strokes for different folks I suppose.

It’s really just semantics if you’re taking in all three at once. Whatever works best to build a picture of it all for yourself is really the right answer.

Couldn't agree more!

[Air Ops]

What lownslow posted.

I start with the GFA to see what is making the weather, then I try to self-brief a TAF from what I have seen on the GFA. I actually like to "click" through the various GFAs on quick order so I can see which way things are moving. (There used to be a website that did this but I can no longer find it.) If my read of the weather lines up with what the WX Gods released in their TAF, then I feel I have done a decent job; if not, then I missed something. If it is all backed up by the METAR, then I feel I have a good handle on what is going to happen. I STILL get surprised from time to time but this is the best I can do. You get a little thrill when your interpretation of the weather varies from the published TAF but lines up nicely with the METAR. Even more so when they amend the TAF to agree with the METAR!

[youhavecontrol]

Kindof a difficult question to answer since they all work differently or serve different purposes.

1. TAF (Terminal Area Forecast) is definitely important so you know what weather you will expect in the future. Always check TAF is possible.
2. METAR (Meteorlogical Aerodrome Report) is just the current weather and the past weather. It gives you an idea of what's happening now, what did happen and if the TAF has been accurate so far. Many times if the METAR is showing weather ahead of the TAF, it tells you how fast a weather system is moving in.
3. AWOS (Automated Weather Observation System) is just the METAR and TAF done automatically, instead of through human input. In my experience, the reports of ceilings and visibility can be frustratingly wrong. Saves money I guess..
4. Upper Winds (FD's) give you information about where the winds are moving at your cruising altitude. This helps with time, heading and fuel burn planning. This is increasingly helpful the longer you intend to fly en-route.

I'm not sure how one would be more important than another in a broad sense.. It all depends on how far you are flying on your x/c. As always though, I check all the things every time, then get a weather briefing just to make sure I'm on the same page as the briefer. Few surprises that way.

[StudentPilot]

This sounds like a TC exam question?

METARs and AWOS are observations, not forecasts, so cannot be "the most useful forecast".

FDs would only be more useful than TAFs if it was windy aloft and you were flying with relatively little fuel. If you can carry a large reserve and/or have numerous places to stop for fuel along the way they are not so important. But that doesn't mean don't check them when they are available to you!

TAFs would generally be more useful than FDs, but they still only describe the weather within 5 miles of the aerodrome. Unless you are flying a route with many aerodromes along it there could easily be significant weather between aerodromes that does not appear in any TAFs.

One place I worked had flights that were blue sky at departure and destination but frequently marginal to nasty in the middle third of the flight (and no weather reporting along the route). As others have suggested, if I could only have one forecast I would want a GFA rather than any of the ones listed.

[rookiepilot]

GFA ++ Once I mastered that, it became easier.

Plus..
Try to understand frontal weather, so if that is at all in the picture, you have a good feel for what that does to the stations along your proposed route, for planning a route and timing.