Cseries

Discuss topics relating to Air Canada.

Moderators: ahramin, sky's the limit, Sulako, North Shore

Post Reply
Message
Author
Radiocaster
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 35
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2014 11:10 am
Location: La belle province

Cseries

#1 Post by Radiocaster » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:16 pm

---------- ADS -----------

rudder
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1530
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Cseries

#2 Post by rudder » Fri Sep 11, 2015 4:29 pm

The only reason for AC to even consider perpetuating the three fleet type NB model would be that BBD gave them insane pricing on C series aircraft and agreed to take the remaining 25 E190's.

I am certain that BBD would love to march out a current EMB operator and show the industry that the C series is the logical replacement. The question is how far will BBD go with price discounting in order to trigger that particular PR opportunity?

Only time will tell.
---------- ADS -----------

teacher
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2365
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 3:25 pm

Re: Cseries

#3 Post by teacher » Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:43 am

Didn't Chorus just announce that they would like to expand their leasing business? The press release mentioned Embraer aircraft as well as Bombardier for international leases and operations abroad with Voyegeur airways.
---------- ADS -----------
http://www.collegeofpilots.ca/

rudder
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1530
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Cseries

#4 Post by rudder » Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:15 am

teacher wrote:Didn't Chorus just announce that they would like to expand their leasing business? The press release mentioned Embraer aircraft as well as Bombardier for international leases and operations abroad with Voyegeur airways.
Buying the C series even with the goal of leasing it out to a third party involves risk. CHR is risk averse. Highly unlikely that CHR will be a C series customer.

As for AC, the E190's that they own are effectively worthless on the resale market. That is why AC bundled a requirement to take E190's in the NB RFP which was secured by Boeing (because Airbus would not take any of the E190's).

So, my guess is that any potential deal with BBD would be at a significantly discounted price (or perhaps list price but a ridiculous trade in value for the 25 E190's) on an order for 25 firm and 25 options including a mix of CS100/300 aircraft. It would be priceless if AC ended up taking the Porter deliveries....but money talks and b.s. walks.

Boeing might be pissed as each C series aircraft would be one less potential converted option by AC on the 737MAX. Having said that, there are lots of other customers lined up for the MAX. And AC will eventually have to refleet Rouge with a more economical NB fleet meaning there are many possibilities for the remaining MAX options.

I am not sure a multiple manufacturer fleet type strategy is correct, but if the C series aircraft is effectively being given away and solves the E190 problem at AC who could say no? There is lots of great PR in wrapping ones self in the Canadian flag. And AC has been doing a great job reasserting itself as the flag bearer for Canada in the aviation industry.
---------- ADS -----------

teacher
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2365
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 3:25 pm

Re: Cseries

#5 Post by teacher » Sat Sep 12, 2015 9:09 am

As for AC, the E190's that they own are effectively worthless on the resale market. That is why AC bundled a requirement to take E190's in the NB RFP which was secured by Boeing (because Airbus would not take any of the E190's).
Resale value yes but lease value? I'm just playing the speculation game with Chorus leasing taking the 190s off ACs hands as they have shown interest in getting into the leasing business. The 737-700 max may be over kill for some markets that AC serves which is why they may be looking at the CSeries. Again, I'm just a pilot speculating on speculation LOL!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ghs-orders
---------- ADS -----------
http://www.collegeofpilots.ca/

rudder
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1530
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Cseries

#6 Post by rudder » Sun Sep 13, 2015 7:54 pm

teacher wrote:
As for AC, the E190's that they own are effectively worthless on the resale market. That is why AC bundled a requirement to take E190's in the NB RFP which was secured by Boeing (because Airbus would not take any of the E190's).
Resale value yes but lease value? I'm just playing the speculation game with Chorus leasing taking the 190s off ACs hands as they have shown interest in getting into the leasing business. The 737-700 max may be over kill for some markets that AC serves which is why they may be looking at the CSeries. Again, I'm just a pilot speculating on speculation LOL!!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ghs-orders
Early serial number E190's are not a desireable commodity regardless of the method of financing. Hence the AC request for RFP aircraft bidders to agree to take them off their hands. And the manufacturers already know that resale or sublease opportunities for those particular aircraft are few or nonexistent.

Either Boeing, Airbus, or BBD are going to have to take the remaining 25 E190's if they want to be the successful bidder on the next round of NB reflecting at AC. One option might be for AC to ask Embraer to swap the 25 E190's for 25 next gen E2 jets for AC Express.

As I said, time will tell.
---------- ADS -----------

User avatar
privateer
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 465
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:49 am

Re: Cseries

#7 Post by privateer » Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:14 pm

Just curious but did AC order 737-8/9s or did they actually order 700s?

I always thought the -900 was overkill and has problems with Brake energy limits. I noticed WJ didn't go for the 900s..
---------- ADS -----------

TheStig
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 533
Joined: Thu Nov 10, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: Cseries

#8 Post by TheStig » Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:08 pm

privateer wrote:Just curious but did AC order 737-8/9s or did they actually order 700s?

I always thought the -900 was overkill and has problems with Brake energy limits. I noticed WJ didn't go for the 900s..
AC ordered Max 8/9, I've heard the same rumours and it will be interesting to see how Boeing's engineers address the issue on the Max. Having a 2 class configuration reduces some of the demand on the brakes both on landing and RTO performance and therefore takeoff performance.

I've been told when WJ looked at the -900 it didn't have the range they were looking for, so they sized up the 900ER but the weight of the extra fuel pushed the CASM higher than the -800 even when fully loaded. So I wouldn't say the size of the -900 is overkill so much as its economics just didn't match the competition of the day, oddly enough its own sibling. The size of the Max 9 should make it an ideal aircraft for AC's fleet but in today's environment CASM seems to rule all, and the variant of both the NEO and MAX that performs the best will sell well.

This is why (I'd suspect) airlines aren't committing to the C series. When you look at the EMJ at AC, the problem isn't that they aren't efficient, it's that were ever they go head-to-head with a larger narrow body they loose (CASM). This is why AC increasingly deploys them on less competitive routes, such as YYZ-SEA, or on city pairs that require less than 100-200 seats per day YYZ-YQR/YXE. AC tried to beat WJ on the Western Triangle (YVR, YYC, and YEG) by offering greater frequency than WJ with the EMJ and it didn't work.
---------- ADS -----------

User avatar
privateer
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 465
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:49 am

Re: Cseries

#9 Post by privateer » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:20 am

Very insightful.

The 700 does have a sweet spot. The 600 takes a real bite into CASM though.
---------- ADS -----------

Gino Under
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2010 12:06 pm

Re: Cseries

#10 Post by Gino Under » Mon Jun 27, 2016 5:57 am

If your yardstick is CASM, Air Canada doesn't have a single aircraft type in its entire fleet that can even come close to the C series CASM. That and a huge discount influenced the LOI.
The icing on the cake would be for the government of Quebec to abandon any legal action so AC could convert the LOI.
I doubt Air Canada would commit to 45 aircraft of ANY type just because of political pressure.
There's more to this 'deal' than that. I'm sure.

Gino

BTW The B737-600 is out of production. Special order only.
---------- ADS -----------

altiplano
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Cseries

#11 Post by altiplano » Mon Jun 27, 2016 6:41 am

Gino.

As insightful as your comment is, it's a little late... not only did Québec abandon legal action, they would no longer have any standing after the recent amendments to the ACPPA.
---------- ADS -----------

Gino Under
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Jan 16, 2010 12:06 pm

Re: Cseries

#12 Post by Gino Under » Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:09 pm

Right you are.
Thanks for that. I wasn't sure all grievances had been dropped.

Gino
---------- ADS -----------

teacher
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2365
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 3:25 pm

Re: Cseries

#13 Post by teacher » Tue Jun 28, 2016 5:51 am

---------- ADS -----------
http://www.collegeofpilots.ca/

Post Reply

Return to “Air Canada”