Possible CSeries routes?

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Jack02
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Possible CSeries routes?

#1 Post by Jack02 » Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:00 am

Hello all,
I have been looking into the Air Canada-Bombardier CSeries deal recently and I am wondering what routes will these planes be used on? I know that they are replacing the e190 but the I have been hearing that now they are being considered for Trans-Atlantic routes thanks to the 3300 nautical mile range. What routes will the CS300s fly for AC? We are already seeing the 737 fleet beginning on routes to Ireland so will the CSeries be used for routes from eastern Canada to Europe like these Boeing planes?

Thanks in advance for the responses!
Jack.
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aV1aTOr
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#2 Post by aV1aTOr » Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:23 pm

Unlikely they would be deployed overseas, since as you state they are earmarked for E190/A319 replacement. Also there has been no mention of the CS300 receiving ETOPS certification with AC. There are many long thin routes within North America that the CS300 will fit into nicely, and once the 190/319 fleets retire the lowest remaining mainline seat count will be 146 on the remaining A320s. That's quite a gap from the max 76 seats allowed on Express jet aircraft. Expect the CS300 to fill this seat gap domestically.
In reality, you can bet that even AC route planners don't know where the airplanes will fly yet. These things are decided more like 8 months out, not 2+ years.
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rudder
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#3 Post by rudder » Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:31 pm

The CS300 is not earmarked for 319 replacement. That is the 737 MAX. 8 319’s being removed from mainline in 2018 with 16 737’s being added.

The first 25 CS300’s are earmarked for E190 replacements. It will be interesting in 2020 to see if AC actually parks/sells/leases away the 190’s or keeps them in service.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#4 Post by YYZSaabGuy » Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:37 pm

rudder wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:31 pm
It will be interesting in 2020 to see if AC actually parks/sells/leases away the 190’s or keeps them in service.
Now that's interesting: I don't recall previously seeing any speculation about potentially retaining the Embraers. Genuinely interested: can you foresee any particular areas in AC's route structure where that option might make sense?
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montado
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#5 Post by montado » Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:46 pm

My "gut feeling" about the CS is it wont really have a place at AC. My first bet is that these aircraft are leased to another airline outside of canada. So much can happen between now and the end of 2019!

Here are the odds I give:

1) Lease to another carrier outside the AC network (39%)
2) Operate at Mainline (28%)
3) Operate at Express (17%)
4) Cancel order (15%)

and 1% to unicorns :rolleyes:
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#6 Post by rudder » Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:22 pm

montado wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:46 pm
My "gut feeling" about the CS is it wont really have a place at AC. My first bet is that these aircraft are leased to another airline outside of canada. So much can happen between now and the end of 2019!

Here are the odds I give:

1) Lease to another carrier outside the AC network (39%)
2) Operate at Mainline (28%)
3) Operate at Express (17%)
4) Cancel order (15%)

and 1% to unicorns :rolleyes:
AC will fly them. They can’t afford not to.

Cost of ownership/cost of operating will be so low on a CASM basis that even the inefficiency of an additional equipment type is not going to be consequential.

AC will however have to make decisions about the role of the CS300’s - mainline/RRA/Rouge.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#7 Post by altiplano » Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:40 pm

Absolutely AC will fly the CS300s. They will be assigned across the domestic and transborder network.

The corporation will also be keeping 319s previously planned to exit the fleet next year, even as a slew of max 8s start to roll in. These 319s will be assigned to routes being upgauged from CPA carriers under the B-scale RRA concession from the last contract.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#8 Post by Sharklasers » Sun Dec 03, 2017 2:36 am

montado wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:46 pm
My "gut feeling" about the CS is it wont really have a place at AC. My first bet is that these aircraft are leased to another airline outside of canada. So much can happen between now and the end of 2019!

Here are the odds I give:

1) Lease to another carrier outside the AC network (39%)
2) Operate at Mainline (28%)
3) Operate at Express (17%)
4) Cancel order (15%)

and 1% to unicorns :rolleyes:
Those aircraft with Air Canada Express painted on the side would represent a complete and utter breakdown in the scope protection afforded by the ACPA contract, it would never get past the membership, we would impeach the MeC long before it got to that. There is nothing that the company could pay or do to intice that major concession because once that horse is out of the barn it ain't going back in. Further to that we would be the first North American carrier to allow such a transgression and it would weaken the entire industry.

If we wouldn't let the old EMB go to express why would we give up the CS300?
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#9 Post by pilotbzh » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:53 am

Now 6 E190 leaving early next spring 6 319 staying and not being replaced by 737......
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rudder
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#10 Post by rudder » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:13 am

altiplano wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:40 pm
Absolutely AC will fly the CS300s. They will be assigned across the domestic and transborder network.

The corporation will also be keeping 319s previously planned to exit the fleet next year, even as a slew of max 8s start to roll in. These 319s will be assigned to routes being upgauged from CPA carriers under the B-scale RRA concession from the last contract.
Are RRA aircraft LCC positions or mainline positions in the bid?
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#11 Post by Fanblade » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:17 am

pilotbzh wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:53 am
Now 6 E190 leaving early next spring 6 319 staying and not being replaced by 737......
Just interim capacity management. The end result will look the same.

My guess.

A mixed 737/320 fleet at mainline. My rational is the Max-9 doesn’t have the range/economics. Notice Air Canada has been switching -9 ‘s to -8’s. They still need something larger in the NB category and Boeing doesn’t have a viable product. 190 phased out.

Cseries to Rouge replacing the 319 on vacation routes and regional upguage/ compete with low cost entrants.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#12 Post by Fanblade » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:17 am

rudder wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:13 am
altiplano wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:40 pm
Absolutely AC will fly the CS300s. They will be assigned across the domestic and transborder network.

The corporation will also be keeping 319s previously planned to exit the fleet next year, even as a slew of max 8s start to roll in. These 319s will be assigned to routes being upgauged from CPA carriers under the B-scale RRA concession from the last contract.
Are RRA aircraft LCC positions or mainline positions in the bid?
It’s Rouge
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#13 Post by TheStig » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:49 am

AC pilots were recently informed of some changes in the fleet plan and told they were to be kept internal...

Some routes which have been operated by express are being up gauged to mainline. No mention of regional route replacement was made and there have been no positions posted for regional replacement aircraft. There is a bid due out tomorrow, so I reserve the right to be corrected.

However, there have been no communications made about how RRA will be incorporated into the operation. Anybody who tells you how they will be implemented is just giving you their best guess based on their interpretation of the language.

As mentioned, 6 EMJ’s are leaving and 6 A319’s which had previously been shown in the financial reports to be leaving the fleet have had their leases renewed. As the EMJ was excluded from the rouge growth/shrink ratio...the new 737’s combined with the renewed A319’s allow Rouge to grow within the scope language to operate the YYZ-YCD & YYZ-YKA routes announced this week.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#14 Post by Gino Under » Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:42 pm

I can see AC reclaiming a number of regional routes with the CS300 due to the CS300 economics. The ‘express’ brand is likely to shrink considerably in the not to distant future.
ETOPS cert is nigh. AC will likely have 120 minutes out of the box.

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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#15 Post by brooks » Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:36 pm

Will they get rid of all the EMB Jets when the C-series arrives?
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#16 Post by altiplano » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:07 pm

EMJs are planned to be gone by 2021 I believe... but we've have seen a lot of changes in the fleet plan.

No doubt it will also depend on timely BBD CS delivery schedules, and (the big one) a place for the 190s to go - they are all owned with an average age of only 10 years. The company would like them to go to Sky Regional.

I'm sure 2020 will bring ACPA selling the scope on the 190, and WB LCC growth for some short term bobble or trinket in our contract.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#17 Post by '97 Tercel » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:32 pm

Or ALPA
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#18 Post by RVR6000 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:51 am

Negots in 2014 and the re-opener in 2017 there is a pretty hardline on the 76 seat scope. It ain’t for sale.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#19 Post by altiplano » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:00 am

RVR6000 wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:51 am
Negots in 2014 and the re-opener in 2017 there is a pretty hardline on the 76 seat scope. It ain’t for sale.
I know that's what they say. But they will be under pressure to bring something and since they say that they have no leverage... something will be sold off...
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#20 Post by atphat » Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:08 am

altiplano wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 6:00 am
RVR6000 wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:51 am
Negots in 2014 and the re-opener in 2017 there is a pretty hardline on the 76 seat scope. It ain’t for sale.
I know that's what they say. But they will be under pressure to bring something and since they say that they have no leverage... something will be sold off...
Sigh. I wish I could say scope is never for sale. I hope you're wrong.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#21 Post by RVR6000 » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:26 am

We would be extremely foolish to give it up, ‘only 5 q400 out of the island’ remember that. Carry on with status quo, no need to give up anymore till 2024.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#22 Post by yycflyguy » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:11 am

RVR6000 wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:26 am
We would be extremely foolish to give it up, ‘only 5 q400 out of the island’ remember that. Carry on with status quo, no need to give up anymore till 2024.
If there is no Global Economic/War crisis and AC continues to fill planes at record numbers, I will be expect MUCH more than status quo. The last two re-openers have been an embarrassment during times of global pilot demand and company riches. If that means ALPA, bring it on.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#23 Post by Level Change » Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:22 pm

Aaahh the CS. There is an interesting subject. First off, I don't think AC management could tell you what routes it will be flying, if any, let alone anyone on this forum. It must be remembered that the CS was never part of the business plan until it became evident that if they placed an order, the AVEOS law suit would quietly go away. Oh yes, no shortage of political prop ups when it comes to Bombardier. Four billion in Canadian taxpayer money given to Airbus. Your welcome.

One thing I do not see happening at AC is four different NB types.
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#24 Post by Gino Under » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:16 pm

If the Swiss, Air Baltic and Delta pilots are any indication of the C series reception into an airline's fleet, Air Canada will have a home for the CS300 and are likely going to use it wisely. At 134,000 lbs, this is NOT a regional aircraft type by any stretch nor is it likely to ever see service with a Regional in North America anytime soon. If you're not familiar with this aircraft, it's time you took a look.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Air Canada isn't going to buy an aircraft that doesn't fit into its future fleet planning if it isn't going to make money. If anything, this aircraft could potentially kill the regional airline idea all together, if the will was there. It is certainly going to shrink them.
FWIW, C series memory items? There are none.

Gino Under :partyman:
(Remember, C series lists for around $75 million USD) Now think about the AVEOS lawsuit and ask yourself how much sense your remark makes? If ACA picked up this aircraft for around $30 million USD per, the math comes out to just over a billion (1.3) U.S. by the time all 45 are delivered. Do you really think it's about making a lawsuit go away? :rolleyes: ... quietly?
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Re: Possible CSeries routes?

#25 Post by Victory » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:52 pm

They're only charging $30 million USD for a CS300? lol no wonder Boeing is so mad. That's the same they were asking for a CL-415.
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