What's the oldest age one should consider AC

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KAG
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What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by KAG » Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:03 am

With so much turmoil at WJ these days, conversations abound in the flight deck on what age is one too old to consider AC, and yes I've considered it myself, although I think I'll be staying put (I truly hope I'm making the right decision). That said if things get much worse I will apply.
I figured doesnt hurt to ask to have some insight for when it comes up. The pension is a big deal, what's the full pension requirement, I've heard both 20 and 25 years. What's the penalty per year short? Hows the lifestyle as an RP and OT capability (I've heard RP has great lifestyle and lots of OT).
I hear rouge is going pretty senior and the 320 mainline jobs are max days worked? How junior will the a220 go left seat? I figure the max upgrade times are getting too long now.
My personal hangup is the flat pay. Its pretty harsh for 4 years, any new hires care to post what the net monthly pay is?
Thanks in advance.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Victory » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:04 am

Whoa I thought you were king koolaid himself. Anyways I've seen plenty of recent new hires that have got to be in their 50's. Never too late. Now is especially good with NB Captain being achievable within 2 years and that's a $200k+ job.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by dashtrash1 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:05 am

I forget what the min pension time is, but I figure it would be 25yrs.

I've been with the company for about 2 years now, and have benefited a lot from the latest wave of hiring, so I'm certainly not working max days on the 320 as an FO (YYZ).This month I have 20 days off doing long turns. If you're junior, I see guys having ~15 days off. Narrowbody reserve at mainline sucks...

As for take home pay, I'm currently taking home 4400-5000/mth, which will include $300-900 per diem, $4100 without per diem is pretty consistent. This is step 2 pay. The pay rates on flat pay are: ~ $58, 64, 73, 83/hr per year, and your min pay is 75hrs.

There was more OT when I started, I do feel there is less and less to go around recently, but I don't often sign up for voluntary overtime, so maybe someone else can answer that.

If the pay rates for the A220 are what they are supposed to be, based off weight and number of seats, I can see it going quite senior for a while, as we will be reducing the 190 and 320s. Although, I have heard a rumour the company is trying to make it equivalent to the 190 payscale..so who knows.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by altiplano » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:50 am

what's the full pension requirement, I've heard both 20 and 25 years.

DB is 25 years and 60+ years old unreduced or 65
TBP is 20 years and 55 reduced or 60+ unreduced or 65

What's the penalty per year short?

DB reduction is 6% / year for going before your normal retirement age
edit: TBP reduction:
If you retire early, your pension will be reduced if you have:
• less than 20 service units (the reduction will be 0.5% for each month that you are under
age 65 when you retire); or
• 20 or more service units, but are under age 60 (the reduction will be 0.5% for each
month that you are under age 60 when you retire).


Hows the lifestyle as an RP and OT capability (I've heard RP has great lifestyle and lots of OT).

It's a pretty easy lifestyle I think, don't know on OT

I hear rouge is going pretty senior and the 320 mainline jobs are max days worked?

Rouge CA average seniority is lower than mainline, rouge FO average seniority is a narrower band and lower than mainline, although the most junior at rouge is senior to the most junior at Mainline.

Junior mainline is 14-16 days worked. Senior is less. It's getting easier to be senior FO at Mainline NB.

How junior will the a220 go left seat?

Some think it will be senior, but I don't think so... sure some senior EMJ guys or even 320 guys will go, it's nice being at the top of any list around here... but on average it will be junior. IMO... that's course rights for you... guys will be waiting on the 737 or 320 or even L767 to use that CR... some guys won't want to go unless they can be top 10% or whatever and will wait who knows how long... I might be wrong, we'll see...

I figure the max upgrade times are getting too long now.

The longer you wait to come, the longer the upgrade gets...


Good luck!
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Last edited by altiplano on Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by KAG » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:17 am

Thanks for the responses. I've run the idea by the misses in passing, obviously being early 40s with 11+ years in at WJ it's a lot to consider. I'm seriously concerned with the direction(s) we're going and frankly I fear for WJs longevity. Good luck to all those who make the move.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:46 am

Take a look at the fleet plan. Growth hiring will be slowing down into 2020. Beyond that attrition hiring. Notice the A220 looks to be all replacement of the 190 /A320.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by altiplano » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:53 am

Word I heard is 1000 over the next 3 years. Then attrition hiring after that 100-140/year.

I also heard the pax bill of rights and new duty rules are forecast to bring another couple hundred or so new hires each. I'm not sure how that fits in to the above projections.

Seems this bull market has some room to run though...
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Daniel Cooper » Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:08 pm

If you ever think you might want to, or need to go, you should apply now. The hiring process sometimes takes a long time. Like years. Every 3 weeks there are 30-40 people going ahead of you. That changes your potential career by a significant amount. I think I read the new Jazz contract might make it much harder for off the street applicants in the near future too.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by 47north » Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:18 pm

Daniel Cooper wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:08 pm
If you ever think you might want to, or need to go, you should apply now. The hiring process sometimes takes a long time. Like years. Every 3 weeks there are 30-40 people going ahead of you. That changes your potential career by a significant amount. I think I read the new Jazz contract might make it much harder for off the street applicants in the near future too.
At least 60% of every class will be coming from Jazz for the next 17 years. So yes OTS is going to get a bit harder.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by flashheart » Wed Feb 27, 2019 8:35 pm

When it comes to AC, you either $hit or get off the pot.

Sooner you get here, the sooner you get seniority, sooner life gets good.

It just takes a couple years to have “options”

With a forecast of 600 to be hired this year, I would not wait. You can’t go back for more seniority

Flat pay isn’t great but Early upgrades, management positions , or instructor spots are all possible.

Look at AC stock, constantly expanding routes and the relentless hiring and training.

Things have worked out better than I could ever have dreamed in my 3 years here.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade » Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:20 pm

altiplano wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:53 am
Word I heard is 1000 over the next 3 years. Then attrition hiring after that 100-140/year.

I also heard the pax bill of rights and new duty rules are forecast to bring another couple hundred or so new hires each. I'm not sure how that fits in to the above projections.

Seems this bull market has some room to run though...
1000 over the next three years would take our pilot total to about 5100 - Attrition. So about 4700 pilots. Call me skeptical but I don’t buy it based on the fleet plan or the regulator changes. It has been anounced the extra 787’s options are not being exercised. After this year growth plateaus.

I think a bit of irrational exuberance is running wild. I also think the peak in this hiring wave was about the time of the initial Jazz PML. The people hired then versus now will have very different careers. That fact has been true through every hiring wave.

Don’t get me wrong AC is a great company. But just like WJ is seeing now there are good times. Then come so so times and even bad times. What WestJet is experiencing will get better. Air Canada will eventually face tougher times. It’s just the cycle of the industry.

Don’t come to AC expecting the current movement. During your career at any airline you will likely see 3-4 hiring cycles. Once back to simple attrition movement it will feel painfully slow compared to the last few years.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by TheStig » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:12 am

I'll second what Fanblade said, the current hiring boom and advancement at AC is a cycle that has or is approaching its peak and historically the hiring spools down a lot quicker than it spools up. For a pilot around age 40 to leave the RCAF with pension in hand, joining AC makes lot of sense. To leave, and I'm guessing a Captains position, at WJ, wouldn't be your best option.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:33 am

Again I don’t want to come across as a party pooper. Just deflate some of the expectations. They are a bit over the top.

Some history.

There isn’t, nor ever was a plan to grow AC indefinitely.

In 2009 Calin R arrived at AC, a company on the verge of a second bankruptcy in 7 years. Calin bought into a plan by Ben S. to upgauge the fleet to drive down CASM and grow large enough to be sustainably profitable. Something AC had NEVER done in its entire existence. The end goal was an investment grade stock.

Step 1) (2009-2011) Get financial legs back under the company. Employees saw little here but cost cutting. I think almost every union tried or did go on strike. Forced arbitration.

Step 2( 2011- present) Upgage entire fleet to drive down CASM. The new 777’s replaced 320’s on some domestic routes while growing internationally. Those 320’s replaced E190’s. The E190 replaced CRJ’s and so forth. Focus on transboarder feed. AC’s fist profit in 5 years was in 2012. Longer if you exclude things like foreign exchange. Although CASM was dropping so was RASM. The investment community was very skeptical. Calin pointed out that was the plan. So long as CASM dropped faster than RASM. Many investment companies didn’t buy it. It was only after repeated years of continued profit growth.

Step 3 (coming to a theatre near you) Grow to Sustainability. Turn AC stock into an investment grade stock. Give back to investors.

Latest news from AC.

Air Canada Increases Key Financial Targets for 2019-2021 Français



News provided by

Air Canada
Feb 28, 2019, 06:00 ET

Share this article







Annual EBITDA margin of 19 to 22 percent
Annual ROIC of 16 to 20 percent
Cumulative free cash flow of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion
Leverage ratio of no more than 1.2 by the end of 2019
MONTRÉAL, Feb. 28, 2019 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada is updating its key financial targets in conjunction with its 2019 Investor Day to be held today in Toronto from 09:00 to 12:30 ET.

From 2019 until 2021, Air Canada is targeting an annual EBITDA(1) margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and impairment, as a percentage of operating revenue) of 19-to-22 percent and an annual return on invested capital (ROIC)(1) of 16-to-20 percent. Air Canada is also projecting cumulative free cash flow(1) of $4.0-to-$4.5 billion over the same period, including projected free cash flow of between $400 million and $600 million in 2019, and a leverage ratio(1) of no more than 1.2 (measured by net debt over EBITDA) by the end of 2019.

"Since Air Canada held its first Investor Day in 2013, we have repeatedly met or exceeded virtually all of our key financial targets, demonstrating management's ability to consistently deliver on our commitments and successfully execute on our business plans. Moreover, we keep setting ambitious targets for Air Canada to drive continuous improvement and further increase shareholder value. Our share price has appreciated over 1,300 percent over the last five years and over 4,000 percent since April 1, 2009 when we embarked on our transformation strategy to position Air Canada for long-term, sustainable profitability. In addition, we are now on course for our objective of achieving an investment grade credit rating," said Calin Rovinescu, President and Chief Executive of Air Canada.

At Air Canada's 2019 Investor Day, Mr. Rovinescu will provide an update on the airline's strategy and Michael Rousseau, Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, will discuss the updated financial targets. In addition, select members of the Air Canada executive team will detail recent and upcoming initiatives, as follows:
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by yycflyguy » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:53 am

Fanblade wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:20 pm
Call me skeptical but I don’t buy it based on the fleet plan or the regulator changes. It has been anounced the extra 787’s options are not being exercised. After this year growth plateaus.
Where was that mentioned? I missed it, and was hopeful those options would be exercised.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:01 am

yycflyguy wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:53 am
Fanblade wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:20 pm
Call me skeptical but I don’t buy it based on the fleet plan or the regulator changes. It has been anounced the extra 787’s options are not being exercised. After this year growth plateaus.
Where was that mentioned? I missed it, and was hopeful those options would be exercised.
Ben S. town hall just prior to leaving. Someone asked about the options. He explained AC wanted some disposable aircraft as a defensive move against an unseen crisis. They opted for a few used 330’s instead.

Up to now the 767 and the older 320’s were the disposable aircraft. Now it will be the 330 and 320. Something you can park fast in the event of a crisis. It’s normal. It would be irresponsible not to have a backup plan.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by flashheart » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:18 am

From Murray's mouth - they are planning on indefinite growth. Not saying that couldn't change.

But - just announced YVR - Auckland, with 2 other routes

That's 4 flights weekly with 4 pilots per leg...

Those long haul flights is where quality of life goes up. With rumours of more to come...

I'm "cautiously optimistic"
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Old fella » Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:35 pm

From an outsider looking in, don’t forget the demographic side. All major operations from every business sector will be competing for that prime younger generation just entering their way in the world. That age group is in rather short supply in comparison to us the senior citizens. Great time to be young as compared to my time way back.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by altiplano » Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:33 pm

Fanblade wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:20 pm
altiplano wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 11:53 am
Word I heard is 1000 over the next 3 years. Then attrition hiring after that 100-140/year.

I also heard the pax bill of rights and new duty rules are forecast to bring another couple hundred or so new hires each. I'm not sure how that fits in to the above projections.

Seems this bull market has some room to run though...
1000 over the next three years would take our pilot total to about 5100 - Attrition. So about 4700 pilots. Call me skeptical but I don’t buy it based on the fleet plan or the regulator changes. It has been anounced the extra 787’s options are not being exercised. After this year growth plateaus.

I think a bit of irrational exuberance is running wild. I also think the peak in this hiring wave was about the time of the initial Jazz PML. The people hired then versus now will have very different careers. That fact has been true through every hiring wave.

Don’t get me wrong AC is a great company. But just like WJ is seeing now there are good times. Then come so so times and even bad times. What WestJet is experiencing will get better. Air Canada will eventually face tougher times. It’s just the cycle of the industry.

Don’t come to AC expecting the current movement. During your career at any airline you will likely see 3-4 hiring cycles. Once back to simple attrition movement it will feel painfully slow compared to the last few years.
I don't disagree with what you're saying, as quickly as this cycle can boom, it can bust... no doubt it's pretty frothy right now...

FWIW, Closer to 3800 active pilots IIRC.

The seniority numbers you see in the new hires in the 4100s also reflect inactive pilots.... Managers, GDIP, recent retirees, other LOAs, etc, and bring our # down...

The equip bids we see reflect active pilots currently required at 4100ish...

So if accurate and we need another 1000 active pilots over 3 years, factoring attrition, I see the projected number needed being closer to 4400-4500 active pilots. That seems reasonable to me... Between the amount we need just to cover those transitioning on courses with fleet introductions - and that's a lot - plus new duty regs and a handful of new routes...
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by RVR6000 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:32 pm

The C-Series will also be opening up new routes. I doubt they’ll completely reduce the 320s, some are quite new and are planned to be on property beyond 2024. Company loves the 321 yields.

I’ve only seen hiring being accelerated, use to be a GS of 24-30 ppl. We’ve been seeing 40-50 ppl for past year, 3 GS already for 2019.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade » Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:36 pm

flashheart wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:18 am
From Murray's mouth - they are planning on indefinite growth. Not saying that couldn't change.

But - just announced YVR - Auckland, with 2 other routes

That's 4 flights weekly with 4 pilots per leg...

Those long haul flights is where quality of life goes up. With rumours of more to come...

I'm "cautiously optimistic"
Yes the LAST of the 787's show up this year so there is growth in 2019. We were talking 2020 and beyond.

Auckland is seasonal. Dec to March. Low season for the WB fleet. It wont increase jobs. Just make the slow months a bit busier.

I have never heard anyone say AC is planning indefinite growth including Murray. That wouldn't be true or responsible. What I have heard him say is hiring for the forseable future. Forseable future means no more than planning for the following summer.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Fanblade » Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:39 pm

RVR6000 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:32 pm
The C-Series will also be opening up new routes. I doubt they’ll completely reduce the 320s, some are quite new and are planned to be on property beyond 2024. Company loves the 321 yields.

I’ve only seen hiring being accelerated, use to be a GS of 24-30 ppl. We’ve been seeing 40-50 ppl for past year, 3 GS already for 2019.
Again. Look at the fleet plan. Anything else is pure speculation.

i agree AC is waaay behind in hiring. We talking about beyond 2020.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by TheStig » Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:56 pm

Ben Smith was the champion of growth.

Rovinescu is now focused on the share price.

Rousseau is watching the purse strings.

This was from May, there are now 5 A330's arriving, not 4 as stated in the article.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... -8-options

Air Canada (AC, Montréal Trudeau) has, for the time being, no plans to exercise its options for thirteen B787-8s given the current economic forecasts for the world and Canada, CFO Michael Rousseau was quoted by Air Transport World as saying at the recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch Transportation Conference.

According to the ch-aviation fleets module, the Canadian flag carrier currently operates eight B787-8s and twenty-six B787-9s, and has a further four units of the latter type on order from Boeing.

Recently, Air Canada has announced it will add a further four A330-300s to its existing fleet of eight units of the type in order to replace the outgoing B767-300(ER)s. The carrier also plans to invest a total of CAD275 million dollars (USD213.5 million) into cabin refurbishments of the Airbus twinjets in order to bring them on par with the newer Dreamliners.


Not saying the party is over, but beyond 2020 the airline is hedging its bets against economic growth and growth will slow. We've all heard hiring numbers from the horses' mouth, but Flight Operations is downstream from the commercial side of the airline.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by jpilot77 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:25 pm

The options on the 787 were not exercised for the time being. The options were not canceled.
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by flashheart » Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:02 pm

Fanblade wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:36 pm
flashheart wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:18 am
From Murray's mouth - they are planning on indefinite growth. Not saying that couldn't change.

But - just announced YVR - Auckland, with 2 other routes

That's 4 flights weekly with 4 pilots per leg...

Those long haul flights is where quality of life goes up. With rumours of more to come...

I'm "cautiously optimistic"
Yes the LAST of the 787's show up this year so there is growth in 2019. We were talking 2020 and beyond.

Auckland is seasonal. Dec to March. Low season for the WB fleet. It wont increase jobs. Just make the slow months a bit busier.

I have never heard anyone say AC is planning indefinite growth including Murray. That wouldn't be true or responsible. What I have heard him say is hiring for the forseable future. Forseable future means no more than planning for the following summer.
Seasonal, for now. And when most pilots have vacation. DBMs of 85 hrs year around?

It will mean more positions.

And any airline exec loves the idea of new routes. It’s sexy and huge bragging rights. Calin is not going to be taking any chances don’t get me wrong, but I am sure there will be more new routes, pending no major global political disasters
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Re: What's the oldest age one should consider AC

Post by Eric Janson » Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:06 am

KAG wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:03 am
With so much turmoil at WJ these days, conversations abound in the flight deck on what age is one too old to consider AC, and yes I've considered it myself, although I think I'll be staying put (I truly hope I'm making the right decision). That said if things get much worse I will apply.
I figured doesnt hurt to ask to have some insight for when it comes up. The pension is a big deal, what's the full pension requirement, I've heard both 20 and 25 years. What's the penalty per year short? Hows the lifestyle as an RP and OT capability (I've heard RP has great lifestyle and lots of OT).
I hear rouge is going pretty senior and the 320 mainline jobs are max days worked? How junior will the a220 go left seat? I figure the max upgrade times are getting too long now.
My personal hangup is the flat pay. Its pretty harsh for 4 years, any new hires care to post what the net monthly pay is?
Thanks in advance.
My personal opinion:-

Once you have a Jet Command never give it up!

There are no guarantees in this Business.

Once you go back to First Officer there is no guarantee you will ever see the left seat. Once you've been First Officer for more than a year a lot of companies will not consider you for a DEC position.

The last company that arrogantly thought they could make me First Officer again (after hiring me as DEC) and that I would just accept it got my resignation letter instead!

I'm not interested in being First Officer - it has zero appeal for me.

There will always be jobs for experienced Type Rated Captains - even in a Global recession. That's not the case as First Officer - First Officer jobs may be hard to come by as most Airlines will train their own people. Just have a look at the jobs currently available - about 3:1 Captain to First Officer.

I've been through 2 bankruptcies and a bunch of other unpleasantness so far in my career. There's always been a job for me when I needed one.
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