Coronavirus Numbers

[RippleRock]

All you epidemiologists and virologists on here can continue to throw solutions and opinions around.

I'm just a pilot, so I have a fairly serious "addiction" to facts and numbers as they have the least propensity to lie and misleed. It will be curious to look back in hindsight once this passes.

Once the --overall mortality rate-- as a percentage of the total population approaches something remotely "statistically relevant" (around one quarter of 1% overall), I'll come back and apologize. I promise.



(for the record we are at 1% of 1/4 of 1%, so once 99x the current number that have passed on Worldwide due to Covid-19, I'll apologize)

[The Raven]

According to the radio yesterday Canada is spending $330,000,000 (that’s $330 million) per COVID-19 death. According to my calculations that’s over $800 billion. Not to put a price on a COVID-19 death, but imagine the number of hospitals, nursing homes, clinics, etc that could be built with $800 billion. Not to mention the money that could be spent on cancer care. Imagine the number of lives that could be saved.

[digits_]

According to the radio yesterday Canada is spending $330,000,000 (that’s $330 million) per COVID-19 death. According to my calculations that’s over $800 billion. Not to put a price on a COVID-19 death, but imagine the number of hospitals, nursing homes, clinics, etc that could be built with $800 billion. Not to mention the money that could be spent on cancer care. Imagine the number of lives that could be saved.

How did they end up with that number? Sounds like some creative accounting was involved.

[RippleRock]

Why don't we buy the Oasis of the Seas and the Sovereign of the Seas (we'd get a smokin' deal) dock them both in Coal Harbour, Vancouver as a quarantine refuge? Admission would be by a positive diagnosis. Check out when you're clear. Personal private jet service to and from your home.

We could cater it with only the finest luxuries, personal attendants, Covid cleared entertainers, a hundred or so Doctors each ship, a thousand nurses each ship, with three thousand individual ventilators per. Easily finance the whole affair with the money we've already said goodbye to.

Even if we did it now, we would still be tens of BILLIONS ahead.

Yes, an insane idea, but its easily as insane as what I watched at Home Depot today....home and garden renovators bumping and brushing by one other like ants in a kicked anthill. Similar experience seen at Walmart. This "lockdown + stay at home order" is a f'ing joke. People are treating it as barely a suggestion.

[The Raven]

According to the radio yesterday Canada is spending $330,000,000 (that’s $330 million) per COVID-19 death. According to my calculations that’s over $800 billion. Not to put a price on a COVID-19 death, but imagine the number of hospitals, nursing homes, clinics, etc that could be built with $800 billion. Not to mention the money that could be spent on cancer care. Imagine the number of lives that could be saved.

How did they end up with that number? Sounds like some creative accounting was involved.

According to todays’s Globe and Mail: Inside the Negotiation of Canada’s Supersized Coronavirus Bailout

As of this week, the federal package has skyrocketed to $145-billion in direct support to workers and families, $85-billion in tax deferrals for individuals and businesses, and $586-billion in credit, liquidity and capital relief. The Liberal government, which already faced accusations of overspending during periods of economic growth, is heading to a deficit in the range of $200-billion.

[Rockie]

So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

[The Raven]

So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

I would have supported the hospital and nursing homes without shutting down the economy. As it stands now, our children and grandchildren will be paying for the actions this government has taken. $800,000,000,000, would have built a lot of hospitals.

[rxl]

Numbers from the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer -

https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/covid-19

Appears that we are headed for a budgetary deficit of 5.2% of GDP. Similar to 1992-93 levels.
DEBT/GDP ratio projected at 38.1%. In 1995-96 debt was two-thirds of GDP.
Interesting to note that in 1946 just after WWII, our DEBT/GDP was 108.6%.

[RippleRock]

So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?


Half of the population wouldn't likely have even gotten it at all as "herd immunity" would have probably happened within six weeks. A quarter would likely have gotten it, but been nearly asymptomatic, showing no symptoms at all. The last quarter would have encompassed all those who got sick and showed symptoms. According to the data 80% of them would have been sent home with a sick note from the doctor. We'd have seen a tenfold increase in the number of people calling in sick maybe. Just my "hysterical" view.

This ---ISN'T--- Ebola, or Smallpox.
Humanity is in no danger of disappearing, even if the handling of this was completely botched in every country.

[Rockie]

[quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1114666">1114666</a> time=<a href="tel:1588041377">1588041377</a> user_id=5632]
So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

I would have supported the hospital and nursing homes without shutting down the economy. As it stands now, our children and grandchildren will be paying for the actions this government has taken. $800,000,000,000, would have built a lot of hospitals.
[/quote]

Supporting hospitals and nursing homes is being done to the best of society’s ability now and still look what’s happening. How do you isolate the vulnerable from Covid 19 when everybody else has it? You would be willingly sacrificing them and clearly (thankfully) Canadians are not prepared to do that.

In the US where their response is late and incompetent they have 1/3 of the worldwide cases and over 1/4 of the deaths, and those ratios are climbing. They only have 4.25% of the population. In Canada that would not be tolerated.

[mbav8r]

So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?


Half of the population wouldn't likely have even gotten it at all as "herd immunity" would have probably happened within six weeks. A quarter would likely have gotten it, but been nearly asymptomatic, showing no symptoms at all. The last quarter would have encompassed all those who got sick and showed symptoms. According to the data 80% of them would have been sent home with a sick note from the doctor. We'd have seen a tenfold increase in the number of people calling in sick maybe. Just my "hysterical" view.

This ---ISN'T--- Ebola, or Smallpox.
Humanity is in no danger of disappearing, even if the handling of this was completely botched in every country.

Ripplerock, I have an honest question, with your opinion on this, are you actively taking precautions when you go out or just carrying on like normal?
I personally don’t want to find out if I get the mild version or the severe, I also won’t go near my loved ones just in case.
The numbers in Canada are with strong and enforceable measures, let’s see how the Georgia experiment goes, maybe they’ll provide some answers as to the herd immunity you’re advocating for.

[Rockie]

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?

While movies are entertaining I find they don’t provide the hard relevant information needed at a time like this. Newspapers and subject matter experts are much more valuable. What are you using?

[RippleRock]

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?

While movies are entertaining I find they don’t provide the hard relevant information needed at a time like this. Newspapers and subject matter experts are much more valuable. What are you using?

I'm using actual data that isn't hard to find.

Canada has had 2700 Covid-19 "related" deaths. Not "Covid-19 caused", just that the victims tested positive, regardless of whether or not it was a contributing factor. In Canada we have 37,900,000 citizens as of 2020. Take those 2700 and divide it by the total population and you have .00714%

.00714% of anything is very close to nothing. Put it in a pie chart and its barely noticeable without magnification. If one person in every thousand Citizens in Canada passed on you would have 37,900 deaths. Chances are 80% that one person would be over 65 and in poor health, likely due to a lifetime of poor food choices, lack of proper exercise or tabacco use. Which means they didn't give a crap about their ongoing health anyway.

We are currently less than 10% of one in a thousand.....meaning less than one in ten thousand.

Does this rationalize it? Of course not, but it certainly puts it into proper perspective. Hardly Hollywood material.

[RippleRock]

So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?


Half of the population wouldn't likely have even gotten it at all as "herd immunity" would have probably happened within six weeks. A quarter would likely have gotten it, but been nearly asymptomatic, showing no symptoms at all. The last quarter would have encompassed all those who got sick and showed symptoms. According to the data 80% of them would have been sent home with a sick note from the doctor. We'd have seen a tenfold increase in the number of people calling in sick maybe. Just my "hysterical" view.

This ---ISN'T--- Ebola, or Smallpox.
Humanity is in no danger of disappearing, even if the handling of this was completely botched in every country.

Ripplerock, I have an honest question, with your opinion on this, are you actively taking precautions when you go out or just carrying on like normal?
I personally don’t want to find out if I get the mild version or the severe, I also won’t go near my loved ones just in case.
The numbers in Canada are with strong and enforceable measures, let’s see how the Georgia experiment goes, maybe they’ll provide some answers as to the herd immunity you’re advocating for.

I live in a town of 150,000. There are four confirmed cases that we are aware of, hospital waiting rooms are empty, clinics barely busy, no deaths. Everything is closed except for the "essentials" like Home Depot. Apparently its critical that folks get lawn fertilizer, but I cant buy a pair of pants, or get a haircut. I stay at home because nothing is open. Few in my town are taking social isolation seriously. The streets are usually crammed with traffic, so a lot of people are headed somewhere. It actually seems a joke, as the only sign of a lockdown are the closed stores, closed schools, and the massive number of people out for walks or riding bikes.

With only one person in 14,000 actually dying in this country, (that one person likely being a heavy smoker, elderly and in poor physical health) the lack of fear among the healthy, like myself is warranted I believe. One is still entitled to their own opinion in this country ---for now.

[The Raven]

Further to the conversation, life is a balance. For instance, there are approximately 5000 automobile accident deaths each year in Canada. We could reduce that number to close to zero simply by reducing the speed limit to 20 kilometers per hour. We don't reduce the speed limit because it would ruin the economy. So in other words we are willing to accept 5000 car accident deaths in order to keep a healthy economy.

[Rockie]

Further to the conversation, life is a balance. For instance, there are approximately 5000 automobile accident deaths each year in Canada. We could reduce that number to close to zero simply by reducing the speed limit to 20 kilometers per hour. We don't reduce the speed limit because it would ruin the economy. So in other words we are willing to accept 5000 car accident deaths in order to keep a healthy economy.

If reckless driving was highly contagious you can bet the highways would be closed until it was under control.

[RippleRock]

How about banning all tobacco products????

45,000 lives lost in Canada PER YEAR attributed directly to Tobacco use.

From the CBC:

The costs to the Canadian economy add up, among them:

Hospital care, $3.8 billion.
Prescription drugs, $1.7 billion.
Physician care, $1 billion.
Fire damage, $74.4 million
Tobacco research and prevention, $10.7 million
Tobacco control and law enforcement, $122 million

But the biggest costs were the loss to families of having a breadwinner die or become disabled because of a smoking-related illness and the productivity loss to employers of losing a worker to a smoking-related condition.
Loss of productivity, income

Forgone earnings as a result of smoking-attributable premature death and illness was estimated at $9.5 billion, and the cost of short and long-term disability was $7 billion. Those who became ill while in the workforce lost an average of seven years of their productive work life, the study found.

In 2012, 599,390 potential years of life were lost because of smoking, meaning smoking knocked an average of 13 years off the life of people who became ill.

The cost to the economy of losing someone over age 65, who is unlikely to be in the workforce, is lower, Dinh said, but almost 25 per cent of those affected by smoking related illnesses are of working years.

Why not ban them completely??? TAX REVENUE. The Government actually cares little for the health of its citizens. Which seems to point at political "theatrics" in the Covid-19 response.

[Rockie]

How about banning all tobacco products????

Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Your other statistical arguments are specious as well, but even if one took them at face value low death rates are a testament that the measures taken are working. Otherwise you would have to argue that flight safety measures are a waste of money because flying is so safe.

Ridiculous.

[RippleRock]

Further, why is the Government shutting down the Economy to save us all from Covid, when they don't seem interested in saving us from completely avoidable Tobacco related deaths that outnumber Covid-19 deaths by 16x ???

I will remain ridiculous Rockie. A life is a life.

[The Raven]

Because the UK government has closed non COVID related hospital departments and clinics there are 2700 missed cancer diagnoses each week. It’s been 6 weeks now. That’s 16,200 people walking around the UK with cancer that don’t know it.