Layoffs

[Squid]

Good luck with the optimism but I’m guessing we are flying around 5000 people a day system wide with no peak yet burning cash like hornet burns gas with the burners on.

[Flight_Deck]

I believe that there will be airline stimulus packages from the government coming to companies such as AC and WestJet in the next 2 weeks. This is going to allow the airlines to get back on their feet much faster when the time comes. This will likely mitigate many pilot layoffs as well. These companies are not stupid and understand that retraining costs are astronomical not to mention not being ready for the demand once the industry spools back up.

I have heard about the stimulus packages from a very credible source. I am not talking about the 75% deal that they are already taking advantage of either.

[Squid]

Those packages will simply be for survival. The customers won’t be back when we flicked the switch off in February. It’s going to be months. Can’t fly skeds if you have no people in the back.

[JoeyBarton]

Is the reduction bid still planned for the 13th?

[sanjet]

Is the reduction bid still planned for the 13th?

Yes

[BTD]

.

Disregard.

[bcflyer]

Pretty sure there are legal ramifications to rescinded job offers, particularly when a signed agreement is in place and the employee has taken major steps to accept the new job, i.e quit their former employer, moved to a new base, etc. I think most of these are settled out of court, and typically a few months of salary are offered to tide over the employee.

Now is it smart to sue Air Canada if you wanted a job there? No. Very short term thinking.

I haven’t seen anything posted that says they actually rescinded the job offer. Definitely delayed it but I doubt they actually rescinded the offer of employment.

[ToolShed]

Is the reduction bid still planned for the 13th?

Yes

Curious, how do you actually know its a reduction bid?

[sanjet]

I can guarantee it is a reduction bid as we had 900 openings prior to this gong show. Without laying anyone off those 900 positions will disappear so its officially a rediction bid. Lets also be realistic, there will also be force reductions coming.

[iflyroads]

Is the reduction bid still planned for the 13th?

Yes

Curious, how do you actually know its a reduction bid?

I believe it's part of the process.

For the up to 600 layoffs to occur a reduction bid needs to be put out and reflect as such.

[bcflyer]

While I agree it will definitely show the 900 vacancies disappearing, I’m not so sure it will show more layoffs than that. The gov assistance lasts till June. No layoffs till June as a result. The next scheduled bid is in June. They all line up nicely. Gives A/C another couple months to see how things are going and work out a plan.

[Sharklasers]

They need to show reductions on this bid to wipe out all the May/June activation dates for new captains and guys going heavy captain. If they don’t then they will have to start paying about 150 FOs as captains in May.
Further if they did have to lay-off in June they will need people and a plan in place before that, a typical bid looks out 12 months I think this one will be looking at the likely summer situation.

[sanjet]

While I agree it will definitely show the 900 vacancies disappearing, I’m not so sure it will show more layoffs than that. The gov assistance lasts till June. No layoffs till June as a result. The next scheduled bid is in June. They all line up nicely. Gives A/C another couple months to see how things are going and work out a plan.

The fact is the market has shrunk significantly and wont grow for a while. Im being realistic. Im a narrow body captain and would have been safe in "normal" recession but im preparing for a layoff in the next coming months.

Bids are essentially forward looking commerical ops (12 months in advanced). AC has to manage cash burn.

Since its a public forum i wont go into to much details but the MOU with pilots is only until september. Forced reduction doesnt mean an immediate layoff. You can be on payroll until the MOU.

[JoeyBarton]

If you are looking at a layoff as a NJA captain I suspect you are execpting more than the 600 layoffs the MOA is talking about.

[ayseven]

People will fly again. What do you think people who don't work are going to do, once we are allowed out of the house? GO SOMEWHERE. And it is a lot safer to fly than to drive, and stay in hotels.

[telex]

People will fly again. What do you think people who don't work are going to do, once we are allowed out of the house? GO SOMEWHERE. And it is a lot safer to fly than to drive, and stay in hotels.

How much disposable income do you think people will have after not working?

[sanjet]

People will fly again. What do you think people who don't work are going to do, once we are allowed out of the house? GO SOMEWHERE. And it is a lot safer to fly than to drive, and stay in hotels.

Not for the next 12-18 months at minimum, even if there is a cure/vaccine anticipated in fall.

[sanjet]

If you are looking at a layoff as a NJA captain I suspect you are execpting more than the 600 layoffs the MOA is talking about.

My personal opinion is anyone at bottm half seniority at legacy airlines is at risk of at least a 6-12 month temporary layoff. AC is not immune to this. The wage subsidies won't last forever unless we want to destroy our currency like Venezuela.

Canada has the worst personal debt to GDP ratio in the world only after Australia. Things are about to unfold very quickly. Exactly what happened in the USA in 2008.

Yes people will return to the skies, not in the short term though.

[ayseven]

Nobody knows that. I understand the pessimism, but I do not share it. I have reasons for saying this, but you can PM me if you want my theories.

Others can do what they like, but I am on a plane somewhere the day the vaccine comes out, and I will need a driver or two. And I won't be alone.

[sanjet]

We will find out shortly anyways. Best to be prepared in case.