TheRealPapaK wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 9:34 am
I realize the Transat merger is the farfrom everyone's mind, but I wonder if swiping away Rouge is setting up for ACA for an acquisition and to keep the Transat brand as the new "rouge". Pure speculation.
It might. I think the move allows AC to play this either way without commitment right now. Due to ACPA scope, Rouge was going to have to be shrunk anyway because of the cutbacks. The Transat purchase on top of that means significant reductions to both. With Transat grounded and Rouge now dissolved, temporarily or not, AC is in a position that they can do whatever makes sense coming out of this. I am sure it is no coincidence that AC has set this up so that all options are open to them.
The question will be what makes sense coming out of this, Rouge or Transat? And when? Both are grounded so that part will figure itself out as markets demand it. My bet is AC hasn’t decided on anything and have deliberately positioned themselves to do whatever makes sense when they please.
rudder wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 5:06 am
For those in the know - what was the rationale behind eliminating all of the LCC 319 and WB RP positions?
Also, why the reductions on the 737?
A previous bid had all 61 737’s on it. That number has since been reduced to 50.
The L319 rational has a few reasons.
Fleet utilization. They can park the EMJ/319 and older 320 immediately by pulling Rouges 320’s back to mainline.
Keeping pilots on payroll not doing anything would reduce the surplus. CR didn’t sound that optimistic that the type of flying Rouge does would come back very quickly.
Also mentioned this gives AC a chance to simplify its NB fleet. No further explanation as to what this meant. The 320 split between mainline and a Rouge was never the intent. It was supposed to be 737 mainline and 320 Rouge. Does Rouge become a brand only after this? They deploy anything they want (320/737/220) into the market? Do they deploy the Max into Rouge and mainline stays 320? Just speculation.
I’m leaning, no that’s not true my bias is showing. I’m hoping Rouge becomes a brand run from within the same operating certificate.
The RP reduction. While waiting for a rebound FO/CA cover the shortfall. Less courses.
Just had it pointed out that by getting rid of the RP position AC will flush out all the grandfathered pay rates.
rudder wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 5:06 am
For those in the know - what was the rationale behind eliminating all of the LCC 319 and WB RP positions?
Also, why the reductions on the 737?
A previous bid had all 61 737’s on it. That number has since been reduced to 50.
The L319 rational has a few reasons.
Fleet utilization. They can park the EMJ/319 and older 320 immediately by pulling Rouges 320’s back to mainline.
Keeping pilots on payroll not doing anything would reduce the surplus. CR didn’t sound that optimistic that the type of flying Rouge does would come back very quickly.
Also mentioned this gives AC a chance to simplify its NB fleet. No further explanation as to what this meant. The 320 split between mainline and a Rouge was never the intent. It was supposed to be 737 mainline and 320 Rouge. Does Rouge become a brand only after this? They deploy anything they want (320/737/220) into the market? Do they deploy the Max into Rouge and mainline stays 320? Just speculation.
I’m leaning, no that’s not true my bias is showing. I’m hoping Rouge becomes a brand run from within the same operating certificate.
The RP reduction. While waiting for a rebound FO/CA cover the shortfall. Less courses.
Just had it pointed out that by getting rid of the RP position AC will flush out all the grandfathered pay rates.
Thx.
So the Coles Notes of the bid is 795 surplus (layoff) and 601 less CA awards vs Bid 19-04?
rudder wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 5:06 am
For those in the know - what was the rationale behind eliminating all of the LCC 319 and WB RP positions?
Also, why the reductions on the 737?
A previous bid had all 61 737’s on it. That number has since been reduced to 50.
The L319 rational has a few reasons.
Fleet utilization. They can park the EMJ/319 and older 320 immediately by pulling Rouges 320’s back to mainline.
Keeping pilots on payroll not doing anything would reduce the surplus. CR didn’t sound that optimistic that the type of flying Rouge does would come back very quickly.
Also mentioned this gives AC a chance to simplify its NB fleet. No further explanation as to what this meant. The 320 split between mainline and a Rouge was never the intent. It was supposed to be 737 mainline and 320 Rouge. Does Rouge become a brand only after this? They deploy anything they want (320/737/220) into the market? Do they deploy the Max into Rouge and mainline stays 320? Just speculation.
I’m leaning, no that’s not true my bias is showing. I’m hoping Rouge becomes a brand run from within the same operating certificate.
The RP reduction. While waiting for a rebound FO/CA cover the shortfall. Less courses.
Just had it pointed out that by getting rid of the RP position AC will flush out all the grandfathered pay rates.
Weren't there only like 10 people left on the grandfathered RP pay rates? Assuming you mean Pre Position Group rates.
Ok semantics. 795 surplus of which 600 max can be laid off(but probably will just stay on payroll and collect CEWS until CEWS ends or September, whichever is later) and the remaining 195 could be laid off starting in September?
hithere wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 4:40 pm
Ok semantics. 795 surplus of which 600 max can be laid off(but probably will just stay on payroll and collect CEWS until CEWS ends or September, whichever is later) and the remaining 195 could be laid off starting in September?
No it's not just semantics. They have two different meanings.
Just because you show surplus does not mean you are getting a furlough.
altiplano wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 6:07 pm
Just because you show surplus does not mean you are getting a furlough.
Not immediately you mean? Eventually it will lead to furlough right? Unless the next bid changes the Outlook. But surplus and furlough are two separate things. One is based on the bid, and the other will depend on ACPA MOA, etc. Am I missing something? Thanks.
.
altiplano wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 6:07 pm
Just because you show surplus does not mean you are getting a furlough.
Not immediately you mean? Eventually it will lead to furlough right? Unless the next bid changes the Outlook. But surplus and furlough are two separate things. One is based on the bid, and the other will depend on ACPA MOA, etc. Am I missing something? Thanks.
.
You aren't furloughed until you're furloughed. Guys have showed as surplus in the past and ultimately not been furloughed. Things can take time. Now with the situation of multiple airplanes and positions completely cleaned off, that could accelerate things depending on their needs and how things sit.
So am I correct in understanding that any RP will not be entitled to a RIR because any position they move to is an upgraded position?
Therefore, even if the company offered the RP position in the future, the original RPs would have to no RP CR except UR CR to make the move back?
This would open it up to junior pilots on recall?
TCAS II wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 6:15 am
So am I correct in understanding that any RP will not be entitled to a RIR because any position they move to is an upgraded position?
Therefore, even if the company offered the RP position in the future, the original RPs would have to no RP CR except UR CR to make the move back?
This would open it up to junior pilots on recall?
Without the GF clause why would you return to RP? I did it 2 years, was fun but it was time to move on.
TCAS II wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 6:15 am
So am I correct in understanding that any RP will not be entitled to a RIR because any position they move to is an upgraded position?
Therefore, even if the company offered the RP position in the future, the original RPs would have to no RP CR except UR CR to make the move back?
This would open it up to junior pilots on recall?
Without the GF clause why would you return to RP? I did it 2 years, was fun but it was time to move on.
I agree, why go back, and hopefully this is the end of RP at Air Canada.
But if you are forced to a higher rated position, I believe you get an RIR/CR to the type ie. 787 RP RIR/CR. You don't get the blanket RP CR back.
Part of asking the question was to know what change to expect the WB FO list if there was a re-introduction of the RP position along with a reduction to WB FO.
I agree, why go back to RP, except if you’re stuck junior WB FO indefinitely and want a simple course.
TCAS II wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 6:15 am
So am I correct in understanding that any RP will not be entitled to a RIR because any position they move to is an upgraded position?
Therefore, even if the company offered the RP position in the future, the original RPs would have to no RP CR except UR CR to make the move back?
This would open it up to junior pilots on recall?
Without the GF clause why would you return to RP? I did it 2 years, was fun but it was time to move on.
Same reason year 3 RPs didn't bid those empty FO slots, it's the same pay for a way worse schedule.
TCAS II wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 6:15 am
So am I correct in understanding that any RP will not be entitled to a RIR because any position they move to is an upgraded position?
Therefore, even if the company offered the RP position in the future, the original RPs would have to no RP CR except UR CR to make the move back?
This would open it up to junior pilots on recall?
Without the GF clause why would you return to RP? I did it 2 years, was fun but it was time to move on.
I agree, why go back, and hopefully this is the end of RP at Air Canada.
But if you are forced to a higher rated position, I believe you get an RIR/CR to the type ie. 787 RP RIR/CR. You don't get the blanket RP CR back.
TCAS II wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 6:15 am
So am I correct in understanding that any RP will not be entitled to a RIR because any position they move to is an upgraded position?
Therefore, even if the company offered the RP position in the future, the original RPs would have to no RP CR except UR CR to make the move back?
This would open it up to junior pilots on recall?
Without the GF clause why would you return to RP? I did it 2 years, was fun but it was time to move on.
Same reason year 3 RPs didn't bid those empty FO slots, it's the same pay for a way worse schedule.
It appears AC and Delta Airlines are reaching similar projections. Delta had 14,600 Pilots when the pandemic started and Air Canada had 4500. 3,500 Pilots represents roughly 24% of Delta's pre-pandemic pilot group which at AC would be 1100 pilots. A reduction, which is nearly identical to the 3400 pilot positions on the current equipment bid.
Delta to have 7,000 more pilots than needed in the fall: memo
Tracy Rucinski
(Reuters) - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), with more than 14,000 pilots on its roster, expects to have 7,000 more than it needs in the fall as the coronavirus pandemic weighs on its operations, according to a memo to flight operations employees seen by Reuters.
The memo follows Delta’s announcement earlier on Thursday that it would no longer fly Boeing Co’s (BA.N) wide-body 777 aircraft and some of the other older, high-maintenance jets, as the U.S. carrier looks to cut costs amid a steep fall in bookings.
“I recognize that is an alarming number so it’s important to know that our intent is to align staffing for what we need over the long term,” John Laughter, S.V.P. of flight operations, said in the May 14 memo, first reported by Reuters.
Laughter said that by the third quarter of 2021, the airline would have between 2,500 and 3,500 pilots more than needed to fly its schedule, even accounting for pilots who will reach mandatory retirement age between now and next summer.
Delta’s move to retire 18 Boeing 777 jets, along with its MD-90 planes, by the end of the year would result in second-quarter non-cash impairment charges of $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion, before tax, the airline said.
It also decided to close its pilot base at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, saying it is difficult to drive operational efficiency there in this environment, according to the memo.
When international demand returns, Delta plans to use Airbus SE’s (AIR.PA) more fuel-efficient and cost-effective A330 and A350-900 wide-body planes for long-haul flying, it said.
Reporting by Tracy Rucinski; Additional reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Dan Grebler
Both AA and DL have significant pilot retirement rates between 2020-2024. UA much less so. Despite that, pilot furlough totals will be be large for each carrier. AA with lowest surplus projection.
UA and DL seem to be planning capacity at approximately 70% for Q3 2021. AA appears to be aiming slightly higher.
Regardless, the shrinkage theme is consistent. Another commonality seems to be anticipated sub 50% capacity for remainder of 2020.
rudder wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:16 am
Both AA and DL have significant pilot retirement rates between 2020-2024. UA much less so. Despite that, pilot furlough totals will be be large for each carrier. AA with lowest surplus projection.
UA and DL seem to be planning capacity at approximately 70% for Q3 2021. AA appears to be aiming slightly higher.
Regardless, the shrinkage theme is consistent. Another commonality seems to be anticipated sub 50% capacity for remainder of 2020.
Just in case anyone didn't see the surplus numbers included the retirement rates!
Curious as to the future of Rouge. The announcement said that all the 767 and 319 are to be permanently removed. That leaves only the 321's? Are Rouge pilots flying mainline planes now? (for what little flying there is)
