Recall timeline

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Boooooo
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Recall timeline

Post by Boooooo »

Hypothetically, if the company were to begin recalls tomorrow, how long would it take before all 600 furloughs are recalled? I'd imagine that to recall and train all 600 pilots will take at least 1 year...

Presumably recalls wouldn't begin until the current re-training plan from 20-01A is complete. Does anyone know when the company anticipates that all the retraining will be finished? Sometime in mid 2021?
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altiplano
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by altiplano »

I am pretty sure that even if the company needed pilots before, they will wait until fall 2022 for any recalls. They are big on numbers save projections. Fuel goes up a penny buying winglets are worth it, fuel goes down a penny winglets not worth it anymore. 2 years or more is the timeline I've always understood made layoffs worth it, I think they will want to make it worth it... I hope I'm wrong.
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SeaBat
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by SeaBat »

The reality is that...

The covid vaccination is being reported as possibly being available this time next year. So, in reality, possibly early 2022; and then will go to front line workers first, and will probably not make it's way through a good portion of the world population until the end of 2023. By then, we will be into a worldwide recession... so, no money for the masses to spend on travel. The pilot's that are lucky enough to NOT be furloughed will be able to handle any upswing in travel due to relaxation of border restrictions. Assuming the recession only lasts a year or two, travel will maybe truly rebound in 2025. If I were you (on furlough), I would completely re-think how I am going to make ends meet for the next five years.
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Old fella
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by Old fella »

SeaBat wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 am The reality is that...

The covid vaccination is being reported as possibly being available this time next year. So, in reality, possibly early 2022; and then will go to front line workers first, and will probably not make it's way through a good portion of the world population until the end of 2023. By then, we will be into a worldwide recession... so, no money for the masses to spend on travel. The pilot's that are lucky enough to NOT be furloughed will be able to handle any upswing in travel due to relaxation of border restrictions. Assuming the recession only lasts a year or two, travel will maybe truly rebound in 2025. If I were you (on furlough), I would completely re-think how I am going to make ends meet for the next five years.
Hmmm...... not sure if I am on the pessimistic side going forward. Vaccines in the 90+ percentile for success are just around the corner , that is if you believe what has been published so far. I think 2021 will be the defining year in that a vaccine will be ready by mid year, protocols set up for inoculation time frames and then the general public has to get comfortable. Once the bubbles are burst, masks tossed and the two meter separation disregarded people will want to move freely about their business and that includes travel. I believe you will see movement in 2022 with a significant upswing. What I have been hearing people are concerned and uncomfortable at present but still plan to move about when circumstances permit them to do so.
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Boooooo
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by Boooooo »

SeaBat wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 am The reality is that...

The covid vaccination is being reported as possibly being available this time next year. So, in reality, possibly early 2022; and then will go to front line workers first, and will probably not make it's way through a good portion of the world population until the end of 2023. By then, we will be into a worldwide recession... so, no money for the masses to spend on travel. The pilot's that are lucky enough to NOT be furloughed will be able to handle any upswing in travel due to relaxation of border restrictions. Assuming the recession only lasts a year or two, travel will maybe truly rebound in 2025. If I were you (on furlough), I would completely re-think how I am going to make ends meet for the next five years.
Yes, I agree that realistically, it will be much longer than 3 years, and yes, I am pursuing other career paths accordingly!
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Rooster69
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by Rooster69 »

I was hoping this was going to be a thread about a different kind of recall.
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by Ash Ketchum »

Wow so much negativity! My guess is for the next round of recalls at the regional level (Jazz/Encore/etc) will come around either spring or fall 2021 and will take about 2 ish years to fully flush through the 600 furloughed at Jazz at least. A family member of mine is working at one of the vaccine companies and he is optimistic that in the second half of next year things will turn around for the better.
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alkaseltzer
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by alkaseltzer »

Boooooo wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:31 am
SeaBat wrote: Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:23 am The reality is that...

The covid vaccination is being reported as possibly being available this time next year. So, in reality, possibly early 2022; and then will go to front line workers first, and will probably not make it's way through a good portion of the world population until the end of 2023. By then, we will be into a worldwide recession... so, no money for the masses to spend on travel. The pilot's that are lucky enough to NOT be furloughed will be able to handle any upswing in travel due to relaxation of border restrictions. Assuming the recession only lasts a year or two, travel will maybe truly rebound in 2025. If I were you (on furlough), I would completely re-think how I am going to make ends meet for the next five years.
Yes, I agree that realistically, it will be much longer than 3 years, and yes, I am pursuing other career paths accordingly!
+1.

I would estimate between 3-4 years before the last person is called. This is on good sources. Hopefully, not longer than 5 years or next presidential election. This is the biggest UPSET in the industry has faced.

What was the recall during 2003/2004 era? I believe some people said it was 2-3 years, and it was half the pilot size, and also half the fleet size.

The maximum number of pilots that could possibly get trained is probably around 400/year onto new equipment. Assuming there will be a boom. Any AC pilot with their login can go and see how the training footprint hasn't even reached 30% for the downtraining bid as yet. Remember there is up training too.

The layoffs will probably not continue for AC pilots if they want to remain competitive on a global scale (and to get that #top10 airline status). However, the reality is (Q3 townhall), we're still sub-20% of passenger loads -> Estimates of 800-900 pilots are needed, not 3000+ on property at the moment. It will also be a huge cash burn to get these machines going again. (Not to mention, business to the likes of NAV CANADA/Airports around the country/ground handlers/etc have all increased their cost of business to well over 30%....people seem to think Air Canada is some sort of ATM machine). That needs to stop. (And why didn't GTAA setup the damn virus testing at CYYZ in the first place? What are they doing with all that money??)

Also, take note of the new CEO coming in. He's a penny pincher; didn't want to put employees on CEWS for the avoidance of paying benefits (which ACPA should have begged them to pay the CEWS and have no benefits). His previous experience to AC was all retail chains. You think he's gonna spring to action to rehire our guys (aka skilled labour)? If so, you should sell ice to Eskimos. I can only see it happening with further concessions. Even then, the training footprint for guys who are coming back, haven't flown, etc, will probably take longer.

Remember there will be a time delay before the vaccine is administered; logistics, storage, and all. Digitization has moved so far ahead. There will probably be a recession as soon as the vaccine is distributed; there's already massive unemployment happening, both north and south of the border. We are artificially hiding it through CEWS. It's much more worse in the USA. Will there be jobs to go back to? For many, it will be no.

To not have an active plan B in the works is a sin. Wish the unions hired epidemiologists and economists to have a roundtable discussion to explain to their pilots what they're really in store for, instead of wishing for the space cadet to save their ass.
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Torontomaplelaughs
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by Torontomaplelaughs »

I remember post 9-11 and this place was the most depressing place on the planet.

2002-2004 you may as well have hung yourself on AvCanada

2005 - AC starting hiring in droves. Those pilots now live a life which could be described as “right place, right time”

Totally the polar opposite of what this place predicted.

Is Covid worse?

Yes

Is Covid different?

Yes

Was there a mass pilot shortage before Covid?

Yes

Is AC an organization that prides itself on adaptation, change and innovation?

Yes

Maybe I’m a huge koolaid drinker, but I’m optimistic of the future here. There will be a surge in the aviation industry with fewer players and cautious investors.

Calin is busy putting the airline in that position. Get concessions, buy an airline, start up a new operation. These guys are smart. Lucky for him pilots aren’t too sharp
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rudder
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by rudder »

It is likely impossible to reasonably estimate a recall timeline for AC pilots on lay-off without factoring in the Transat acquisition.

That transaction will bring more pilots than jobs.

To be determined is what the operational structure of AC/Rouge/Cargo/Transat will look like.

Oh, and later on top of that COVID, vaccine, travel restrictions, and altered travel behaviours (both business and personal).

Supposedly latest AC bids look out to summer 2022. Logic would suggest that means there are sufficient pilots on the property. Only attrition to be accounted for.
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Fanblade
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by Fanblade »

“ We're going to be ready to recover on the other side of COVID-19: Air Canada CEO
It's been a tough year for the airline industry, and Air Canada has been feeling the pressure. Revenue plunged 86 per cent in the third quarter. Calin Rovinescu, president and CEO of Air Canada, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about how the company has been managing. Rovinescu says that he has yet to see suggested terms for government aid for the airline industry. He also says he still thinks it will take three years for the airline to get to 2019 levels of revenue and capacity.”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/we-re ... eo~2079654

I’m going with three years or less. I would take his guess over everyone else’s.
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Mrbobmarly111
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by Mrbobmarly111 »

Im guessing recalls starting fall 2021. AC always starts their hiring in fall to cover the next summers flying. It takes a year to train 600 people. You will need to start fall 2021. Just my 2 cents
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FL-280
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by FL-280 »

If in three years, which is Q4 2023, we are at 2019 level of revenue and capacity. You can expect not recalls, but hiring in 2023! I expect all recalls to be completed by the end of 2022.
As for Transat, share price is well over 5$ right now. Who knows, shareholders might vote it down. If not, the arbitrator can decide... but at a minimum Transat will be ran seperate for 12-18 months which brings us well into 2022.
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rudder
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by rudder »

FL-280 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:53 pm As for Transat, share price is well over 5$ right now. Who knows, shareholders might vote it down. If not, the arbitrator can decide... but at a minimum Transat will be ran seperate for 12-18 months which brings us well into 2022.
TRZ is over the offer price because the set price for those taking AC shares vs cash the return value has increased. Conversion was at AC $17.47. AC closed at $21.60 yesterday.

Conversion ratio is set at 1:0.2862 resulting in effective value of $6.18 for a TRZ share.
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Last edited by rudder on Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:17 am, edited 2 times in total.
rudder
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by rudder »

FL-280 wrote: Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:53 pm If in three years, which is Q4 2023, we are at 2019 level of revenue and capacity. You can expect not recalls, but hiring in 2023! I expect all recalls to be completed by the end of 2022.
Peak flying levels (non COVID) commence in June of each year and run to September.

True, if you are training 600 lapsed or new-hire pilots it would take 12 months to complete to the last recall/new-hire.

Will AC see the block hours in summer 2023 that it completed in 2019? That remains a guess. But the perspective now has to be ‘consolidated’ block hours. So, add up mainline, Rouge, Transat block hours for summer 2019 and estimate when that number will equal mainline, Rouge, Cargo, and Transat in the future. I would be surprised if that happens by 2023.

The good news is many of those pilots from summer 2019 have retired and there will be continued retirement attrition. The other good news is the implementation of the new flight and duty time regulations will require a greater number of pilots to complete the same number of block hours.
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altiplano
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by altiplano »

rudder wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:00 am So, add up mainline, Rouge, Transat block hours for summer 2019 and estimate when that number will equal mainline, Rouge, Cargo, and Transat in the future. I would be surprised if that happens by 2023.
That will happen never. The plan always was to consolidate routes, fewer flights vs. seperate operations, fewer fins, fewer pilots required.
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rudder
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:50 am
rudder wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 6:00 am So, add up mainline, Rouge, Transat block hours for summer 2019 and estimate when that number will equal mainline, Rouge, Cargo, and Transat in the future. I would be surprised if that happens by 2023.
That will happen never. The plan always was to consolidate routes, fewer flights vs. seperate operations, fewer fins, fewer pilots required.
Exactly.
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FL-280
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by FL-280 »

TRZ shareholders could also get paid in cash by AC, it's AC'S option. Cash, shares (17.47$) or a combination of the two!
AC has 50 000 issuable shares, I doubt they will use them at 17.47$ when market is trading at almost 22$....
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rudder
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by rudder »

FL-280 wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:58 am TRZ shareholders could also get paid in cash by AC, it's AC'S option. Cash, shares (17.47$) or a combination of the two!
AC has 50 000 issuable shares, I doubt they will use them at 17.47$ when market is trading at almost 22$....
MONTREAL, Oct. 10, 2020 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada announced today that it has concluded an amended transaction with Transat A.T. Inc. that provides for Air Canada to acquire all the issued and outstanding shares of Transat and for its combination with Air Canada. Under the binding agreement, unanimously approved by the Board of Directors of Transat, Air Canada will acquire all shares of Transat for $5.00 per share, payable at the option of Transat shareholders in cash or shares of Air Canada at a fixed exchange ratio of 0.2862 Air Canada share for each Transat share (representing a price for the Air Canada shares of $17.47). The value of the transaction is approximately $190 million.
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FL-280
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Re: Recall timeline

Post by FL-280 »

rudder wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:15 am
FL-280 wrote: Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:58 am TRZ shareholders could also get paid in cash by AC, it's AC'S option. Cash, shares (17.47$) or a combination of the two!
AC has 50 000 issuable shares, I doubt they will use them at 17.47$ when market is trading at almost 22$....
MONTREAL, Oct. 10, 2020 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada announced today that it has concluded an amended transaction with Transat A.T. Inc. that provides for Air Canada to acquire all the issued and outstanding shares of Transat and for its combination with Air Canada. Under the binding agreement, unanimously approved by the Board of Directors of Transat, Air Canada will acquire all shares of Transat for $5.00 per share, payable at the option of Transat shareholders in cash or shares of Air Canada at a fixed exchange ratio of 0.2862 Air Canada share for each Transat share (representing a price for the Air Canada shares of $17.47). The value of the transaction is approximately $190 million.
Ooops! I didn't see it was at the option of Transat shareholders!! I thought AC decided how they paid. That explains it in that case absolutely.
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