.

[sanjet]

Pretty bold on my behalf but I believe we will be back to a pilot shortage end of 2022.

[Kosiw]

Pretty bold on my behalf but I believe we will be back to a pilot shortage end of 2022.

[mbav8r]

Pretty bold on my behalf but I believe we will be back to a pilot shortage end of 2022.

It’s great to be optimistic but you have no basis in reality.
The amount of airlines that employ Canadian pilots that will undoubtedly be smaller or nonexistent going forward, I’d be surprised if there is a big hiring boom before the next downturn cycle.
With more lockdowns ongoing, there will be many bankruptcies, travel will not return to 2019 levels for 5 years if ever, that’s my bold statement.

[Big Pistons Forever]

It is not if travel returns it is when. After every downturn, and I have seen the industry crater 4 times in my career, the industry always came back bigger. Don’t forget the airlines started 2020 with a significant shortage of pilots and that was before the new flight and duty times regulations mean every airline will need at least 10 percent more pilots to fly the same schedule.

Also this time the pilot pool is likely going to be diminished at both ends. At the top there has been accelerated retirements and at the bottom I predict that many zero to hero new guys/gals who got handed the job on a platter are going to find new careers and are not going back to the cockpit taking a been there, done that approach to flying the line as a junior FO.

Yes things are going to be ugly for at least the next two years, but I predict there will be huge and rapid recovery driven by pent up demand when there is a collective belief society has beaten COVID.

Those who have the aviation bug will stick it out and reap the rewards when things get better. The poseurs will drop away as they did last time things got hard

My 02 cents and worth every penny

[mbav8r]

It is not if travel returns it is when. After every downturn, and I have seen the industry crater 4 times in my career, the industry always came back bigger. Don’t forget the airlines started 2020 with a significant shortage of pilots and that was before the new flight and duty times regulations mean every airline will need at least 10 percent more pilots to fly the same schedule.

Also this time the pilot pool is likely going to be diminished at both ends. At the top there has been accelerated retirements and at the bottom I predict that many zero to hero new guys/gals who got handed the job on a platter are going to find new careers and are not going back to the cockpit taking a been there, done that approach to flying the line as a junior FO.

Yes things are going to be ugly for at least the next two years, but I predict there will be huge and rapid recovery driven by pent up demand when there is a collective belief society has beaten COVID.

Those who have the aviation bug will stick it out and reap the rewards when things get better. The poseurs will drop away as they did last time things got hard

My 02 cents and worth every penny

While I agree with your analysis of the pilot supply, there has to be an economy to drive that pent up demand. I’m sure I have seen the same four downturns as you, I’ve been in this industry since 1990.
There will be no recovery until there is widespread vaccinations, 75% of the population, that’s not Canada in a bubble, that’s the world. So how much damage will be done before that happens?
When the CEO says recovery in five years, add a factor of pessimism to that, that’ll take us right to the next cycle of a downturn.
I truly hope I’m wrong, as I’m not an economist so this is just a gut feeling and I’m a realist(some would say pessimist) but we have bills coming due and we are all going to have to pay them.

[bcflyer]

Everyone keeps talking about returning to 2019 levels. Please remember 2019 was the best year ever seen in aviation. YVR A320 captain after 2yrs? Completely unheard of in my time flying. Perhaps we should lower our expectations a bit to make a more realistic timeline.

[flyingcanuck]

Everyone keeps talking about returning to 2019 levels. Please remember 2019 was the best year ever seen in aviation. YVR A320 captain after 2yrs? Completely unheard of in my time flying. Perhaps we should lower our expectations a bit to make a more realistic timeline.

I would say the argument is that we now know the potential it can get to, and the world is still becoming more connected I can only see it continue to grow

[rudder]

Everyone keeps talking about returning to 2019 levels. Please remember 2019 was the best year ever seen in aviation. YVR A320 captain after 2yrs? Completely unheard of in my time flying. Perhaps we should lower our expectations a bit to make a more realistic timeline.

I would say the argument is that we now know the potential it can get to, and the world is still becoming more connected I can only see it continue to grow

The currency that denominates pilot jobs is block hours, with an adjustment factor for type of flying (short haul vs long haul requiring augment) and revised flight and duty time limitations reducing crew efficiency.

The 2019 level of block hours was unprecedented (for CDN carriers) and had been forecast to increase again in 2020. Those anticipated levels will return when the economy returns to 2019 GDP and there are zero global COVID related impediments to mobility.

Any guess is a crystal ball. This thread includes suggestions of 2 years and 5 years. The reality probably lies somewhere in between those estimates.

Another factor that is little discussed is the financial health of previously expanding carriers. Balance sheets are being loaded up and debt service will become an increasing expense which will impact ability to add further debt to fund capital expenditures required for growth.

Return to 2019 balance sheet health for many large carriers will extend well beyond a 5 year window.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Return to 2019 balance sheet health for many large carriers will extend well beyond a 5 year window.

Demand will be met however the financial impairment will undoubtedly cause a further erosion of wages and working conditions. The bar, unfortunately, still has plenty of room to be lowered.

Personally I think history has shown that when faced with massive shocks industries and indeed the general economy will over correct. With respect to the economy I think early summer 2021 will set the tone for the next few years, for better or for worse...

I would also suggest that there is an increasingly pent up demand for VFR travel. Given the geographic realities of Canada, travel by air is often the only practical way to get to where you want in a reasonable time frame.

I think it will also important to think about the unexpected consequences of the pandemic. For instance the wholesale diversification of airports to local authorities has created a situation where now the airport authority doesn't want to be on the hook for airport expenses, especially for certified airports and are starting to look for ways to abandon the airport. The same with the Nav Canada funding model. They are between a rock and a hard place and the only way to match expenses to revenue is to dramatically reduce costs, of which people are the largest share. It is easy to envision a return to higher levels of flying being impeded by a lack of air traffic control capacity. The damage being done right now will take years to overcome.

There is one thing I will bet money on. When the dust settles Air Canada will have a position of unassailable dominance in the overall travel market in Canada for a good while.

[seriousflyer]

These posters are smoking some good stuff.

Good on everyone for being so optimistic, but aviation data is quite to the contrary on alot of these theories.

18 months before first recall, and 4 years before first new hire joins.

Westjet is not in shambles .... its not disclosed financially, but owned by a private equity firm making 100s of million profit quarterly.

Pilot surplus from market consolidation will result in 20% fewer airplanes overall with AC, westjet , transat, sunwing, porter all shrinking from 2019 levels, eventually growing in 2024 timeline.

[sanjet]

Pretty bold on my behalf but I believe we will be back to a pilot shortage end of 2022.

I should buy a lottery ticket

[Hangry]

Pretty bold on my behalf but I believe we will be back to a pilot shortage end of 2022.

I should buy a lottery ticket

Ha! Good call. I definitely would have bet against you. Here’s hoping for continued good times.