hiring halter...

[MB22]

Thanks Stig. As you said, everyone has their own opinion and ideas of what is to come but it is nice to see some posts with some form of optimism and I'm sure there are others that would agree. Lets hope the next bid continues to show a need for more pilots, even if it is only a small amount.

[Fanblade]

Stig,

I think you are close but a little on the optimistic side.

You count 40 surplus EMJ Captains. That sounds correct.

There are also 60 ish duplicate 320 CA positions at Rouge not yet reduced from mainline. The 320 FO mainline position was reduced already.

Same for the 767. All the Rouge positions are duplicate. No reductions yet.

These positions were supposed to have been vacated through upward movement due to attrition. Attrition that has stopped.

If the 787 replaces 767 flying the crewing will be close to the same. It is a 767 replacement. Certainly we haven't heard any ultra long range routes announced that would create 777 type crewing.

I understand the notion of oranges to mellon's. However the 767 at Rouge is to be crewed just above 8 crew per aircraft. No augment. No RP's. I would call that more like oranges to grapefruit.

I think you are close, but under estimating the current surplus, and overestimating the crewing for the Rouge 767. Depending on new routes with the 787, its crewing may, or may not, create a gain.

Bottom line is hiring will be mostly dependent on retirements unless a big aircraft acquisition is made beyond what we know about today.

Retirements look to be about 30 looking out 12 months from now.

[TheStig]

Fanblade,

Ok how does a wager sound? If AC doesn't run a ground school by the end of this year, you can have my next Tim's card for perfect attendance....

[Fanblade]

You get those?

[pilotbzh]

haven't seen one of those card in a long time, and I always make up that 10% loss on a sick day one way or the other...

[JLA]

So the Equipment bid showed 221 vacancies as of early 2013, reducing to a flat 16 vacancies for Aug 2013, all that because of optimistic retirements and because E175 were transferred earlier than expected? AC knew about 150 EMJ mainline jobs lost to SR, I was hoping they could take it into account in their bid prédictions. I think everybody got a bit overwhelmed by this 221 vacancies showed during spring...Not really happening.

[Fanblade]

The idea is for everyone to move up the ladder as the airline grows and pilots retire, that said, the planned expansion of rouge is pretty aggressive and it will be interesting to see how things unfold.

Stig,

Go read RA's newsletter just before bid 13-03. Under Staffing update. It is a complete about face. All 777 positions are bid. 787 will replace 767. 319's start trasnsfering at a rate of about 2 a month in October.

Retirements have stopped and the plan was based on attrition. There is no place for people to move up to as the 319's get transfered. We have had two downbids since the newsletter. Expect them to continue until Rouge is fully staffed.

There is no appreciable growth in AC's plan. Yes there is some but not a lot. Hiring was based on retirements not growth. 150 ish a year. 450 over three was what was supposed to have left room for people to move up and avoid reductions to Rouge.

Retirements are not happening and the situation was compounded by transferring 150ish jobs to SR.

Stig,

You seem to have the inside track. You were right AC kept hiring. Problem is I was also right. Their plan was hinged on retirements that haven't happened. They have continued to hire at Rouge rather than reduce surplus mainline pilots up to now. But that can only last so long. 280 is a lot of surplus mainline pilots to carry.

Any truth to the rumour that hiring is now on hold until the surplus is corrected? A reduction bid is in the works to push mainline pilots to Rouge?

[bcflyer]

To the best of my knowledge hiring is on hold. As for the reduction bid, I think we'll see the company. be very creative the next few bids. Forcing pilots to Rouge is something they want to avoid at all costs. Paying mainline wages at Rouge defeats the idea of a LCC. (At least it does if you believe wages are an important part of the equation....)

[Fanblade]

You know what is more expensive than pilots carrying mainline wages to Rouge? 280 surplus pilots on the mainline payroll.

I think they wagered on attrition taking care of the mainline surplus and lost.

[777LR]

You know what is more expensive than pilots carrying mainline wages to Rouge? 280 surplus pilots on the mainline payroll.

I think they wagered on attrition taking care of the mainline surplus and lost.

Hey Fanblade,

Where are you getting your 280 surplus from?

Thanks.

[Fanblade]

You know what is more expensive than pilots carrying mainline wages to Rouge? 280 surplus pilots on the mainline payroll.

I think they wagered on attrition taking care of the mainline surplus and lost.

Hey Fanblade,

Where are you getting your 280 surplus from?

Thanks.

Management is starting to blurt it out to ACPA and line pilots. FWIW I don't think it is an overall surplus but rather a mainline surplus. You move 30 aircraft from mainline to Rouge, send 15 E175's to SR and bring in only 4 widedodies? You get a surplus at mainline.

Rouge will still need 200 plus more pilots.

[Slappy the Squirrel]

Okay, so we are now a few months into the latest hiring halter, even though interviewing continues to fill up the pool.

June 1st bid showed 13 open positions 6 months from then (Dec. 1st). 787's are still being delivered, but it seems nobody has a real clear idea what is happening with the E190's starting summer 2015. There seems to be uncertainty as to when new PIT courses will start up again.

So what do you guys think? Anybody have any predictions for when the next PIT course will be, and whether it will lead into any sort of consistent hiring?

[leftoftrack]

it seems nobody has a real clear idea what is happening with the E190's starting summer 2015.

Last quarterly meeting CR announced that the E-190's are too young to dispose of and as such will remain in the fleet.do you have any reason to believe that is going to change in 10 months?

[JoeyBarton]

Read the latest MD&A, 20 emj are leaving the fleet in 2015, the remaining 25 are staying on the property.

[TheStig]

Looking at the number of pilots on the EMJ prior to the E175 transfer, it looks like there are 25-30% fewer positions, so the loss of the E175's has been accounted for. As mentioned further EMJ reductions will continue as 20 E190's are scheduled to leave the fleet starting in the spring of 2015 and will be replaced by leased 'larger narrowbodies'. I'd expect to hear what that type is within the next couple of months.

Air Canada expected to receive 6 787's this year with 6 and 8 more expected in 2015 and 2016 respectively. In any case thats 18 more widebodies in the fleet (801 & 802 being on the property) within the next 12 equipment bids, with roughly 15-20 pilots required per aircraft.

Here are some demographics to consider (while some of these pilots have retired) since Dec 2012 here are the numbers of pilots who have turned 60:

As of June 2014 - 215
As of June 2015 - 367
As of June 2016 - 521
As of June 2017 - 644

With only 2 years of retirement data its hard to get an accurate picture of when pilots are going to be retiring but consider of the roughly 120 pilots turning 60 each year only 5 retire at 60, 10 at 61, 15 more at 62, another 20 at 63, 25 more in their 64th year, and remaining 45 at 65. I'd suspect those numbers to be low, but used to simply highlight the fact that retirements aren't either at 60 or 65 but rather more of a wave that hasn't crested because they are added together. For example;

Year 1(2013) - 5 retirements
Year 2 (2014) - 15 (60 & 61)
Year 3 (2015) - 30 (60,61,&62)
Year 4 (2016) - 50 (60,61,62,&63)
Year 5 (2017) - 75 (60,61,62,63&64)
Year 6 (2018) - 120 (60,61,62,63,64&65)

And so forth, while retirements have dried up in the last 2 years, they should start to increase again to where you'd expect 10 a month, and likely at the same time when deliveries if both the 737 and 787 really start to amass.

So while sitting around in the hiring pool watching 25 EMJ's leave the fleet in the last 2 years while waiting for a call isn't much fun hopefully you can take some comfort in the fact that there is some huge potential for growth in the upcoming years.

For what it's worth I'm guessing AC with run ground schools in October and November this fall as the 787's arriving and retirements should lead to vacancies next spring despite the net reduction in NB aircraft.

[Dockjock]

That sounds very reasonable TheStig. My feeling is that we are at or very near to the low point of retirements as a result of FP60. The ruling came down in Dec 2012 so naturally 2013 was stagnant, and we're already halfway through 2014. Perhaps another 6 months and retirements should start to pick up, precisely as Stig is predicting. It would be fantastic if these new Temporary Foreign Worker regulations end up benefiting retired AC pilots who would like to use their jet experience to work for Sunwing as a seasonal.

Retire at 60 draw your pension, then work for Sunwing from Nov-Apr every year and take the spring and summer off? Fantastic. Happened at Skyservice I believe.

[Hozer]

Happened at Sky Regional too.

[arcadia]

.

[MartinB]

Rumor has it, the loaner A/C will be 800/900's until the Max arrives, as well 3-4 additional T7 fins......I am currently in the pool, have been for a year, the waiting is brutal, but like everything in my career, it never happens when I want it......to the new guys in the pool, I'd advise to request AC not call your current employer until you are just about ready to go.....not a great way to work when your company knows you are leaving, just not sure when......All the best to those applying!

Looks like it will be 5 320's and 5 321's according to page 19 of the First Quarter 2014
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results of Operations and Financial Condition document located here: http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/inves ... MDA_q1.pdf

[TheStig]

martinB the note (1) at the bottom cut off of the graphic you've posted reads:

(1) In 2015, Air Canada plans to replace 20 Embraer 190 aircraft with 10 larger narrow-body leased aircraft. As of the date of this MD&A, the type of replacement aircraft has not yet been determined; solely for illustrative purposes, Air Canada has assumed these to be five Airbus A320 and five Airbus A321 aircraft.