NB Replacement - 320 NEO

[Jimmy_Hoffa]

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... er-393701/

Air Canada is expected to seek board approval for an order of Airbus A320neo family aircraft on 11 December.

The potential order includes an undisclosed number of the A320neo and the A321neo aircraft, sources close to the negotiations tell Flightglobal. These are understood to be replacements for the Montreal-based carrier’s existing A320 and A321 fleets.

Air Canada and Airbus decline to comment.

The airline has stated repeatedly that it would place a narrowbody order by the end of the year, with executives making the first such comments in August 2012.

The expected 11 December vote by the airline’s board fits this schedule.

Air Canada has said that the narrowbody order would include replacements of its existing A320, A321 and Embraer 190 fleets, and has confirmed discussions with Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer.

Calin Rovinescu, the carrier’s chief executive, told Flightglobal in June that the entire order would likely be for 60 to 90 aircraft.

Air Canada operates 36 A320s, 10 A321s and 45 E-190s – a total of 91 aircraft – Flightglobal’s Ascend Online database shows.

Michael Rousseau, chief financial officer of Air Canada, said in September that deliveries of a replacement for its A320s and A321s would likely begin late in the decade.

An order for a replacement of the E-190s is still likely.

Many analysts speculate that Air Canada may opt for Bombardier’s 110-seat CS100 or 130-seat CS300 for its smaller narrowbody needs.

RBC Capital Markets wrote that it believed that the carrier was seriously considering an order for 30 to 50 CSeries aircraft, in a 18 November research note.

The Canadian airframer has been pushing hard to sell the aircraft, especially since the first flight of the CS100 in September. The CS100 and CS300 combined have 117 firm orders and 193 options or letters of intent, according to Ascend.

Rovinescu outlined the possibility of splitting Air Canada's narrowbody order between its mainline and regional fleets at a conference in November.

“There are some advantages to having a single narrowbody fleet in the mainline operation, so we’re looking at that possibility, as well as some real advantages about having some intermediate product between the 75 seat and the 140 seat,” he said. “So we’re studying both scenarios as we look at the narrowbody decision and any subsequent discussion on scope would flow from that.”

[Norwegianwood]

No brainer! Easy switch with little (differences) or no training and probably a really good deal from Airbus......

[AllClutch]

I thought they couldn't farm out anymore mainline flying?

[planeless]

They'd farm the entire airline out if they could. I'm sure they will try and give away as much of the narrow body flying as they possibly can.

[AllClutch]

They'd farm the entire airline out if they could. I'm sure they will try and give away as much of the narrow body flying as they possibly can.

Agreed but I thought the pilots deal prevented them from doing that.

[teacher]

It does but it sounds like CR wants to reopen any current deals. Time to get a wish list out.

[AllClutch]

Like wishing for a time machine to go back and fly before deregulation?

[planeless]

Current scope is limited to 75 seat aircraft, nothing larger can be flown by the regionals.

[AOW]

Current scope is limited to 75 seat aircraft, nothing larger can be flown by the regionals.

I had understood that the scope clause limited jets to 75 seats, but didnt mention turboprops. I had joked when I heard this that someone should set up a CPA flying Tu-114s with around 250 cattle car class seats. Perfect for those sun destinations!

[teacher]

Current scope is limited to 75 seat aircraft, nothing larger can be flown by the regionals.

CR seems to have other plans. Time to sharpen the negotiating pencil I think.

I had understood that the scope clause limited jets to 75 seats, but didnt mention turboprops. I had joked when I heard this that someone should set up a CPA flying Tu-114s with around 250 cattle car class seats. Perfect for those sun destinations!

Plans put on hold to focus on the CSeries but there are still plans.

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... op-stretch

[AllClutch]

CR essentially announced his intentions to look at breaking his hard fought concession-full contract that they just signed.
Whats the point of negotiations and arbitration?

must be nice to be king.

[ikarus]

as some one said above, logical replacement in my opinion...

[Rockie]

It does but it sounds like CR wants to reopen any current deals. Time to get a wish list out.

CR's wish list is the only one the Harper Government is interested in and CR knows it. They'll shred our current forced working conditions and print up whatever new ones the corporation wants, just like they did in summer 2012. No strikes, no protests, no choice.

Please excuse my completely justified cynicism.

[Old fella]

It does but it sounds like CR wants to reopen any current deals. Time to get a wish list out.

CR's wish list is the only one the Harper Government is interested in and CR knows it. They'll shred our current forced working conditions and print up whatever new ones the corporation wants, just like they did in summer 2012. No strikes, no protests, no choice.

Please excuse my completely justified cynicism.

Since you brought up Harper and cynicism( they both compliment each other), your justified cynicism may be indeed short lived like 2015. I know a well connected Conservative - the old PC type. They are completely and utterly fed up with Harper and his minions. Yes, his hard core will follow him over the cliff and into the sea but the moderates like the 8-10% who swung his way to give him his majority are leaving the rotting hull as cracks are widening. Conventional wisdom the benefactors will be the Grits, the socialist hordes(NDP) were given the heave-ho down here a few months ago. Biggest issues I have seen are the erosion of personal freedoms/rights like with this TV Law and Order rant Harper is on and also the snooping aka this Cyberbully that has hidden adjenda to name a few. People are really taking notice, I have been around a long time and this is the first time I have seen engagement of this level.

Not to mention the PMO and Senate capers of this past many months...... thats another crack on the Harper hull. Imagine the CEO(Harper) had no idea what was transpiring in his own office - the highest office in the land(PMO). Either Harper is not truthful or he is incompetent. It's like your AC CEO not knowing you guys have B787 and how much it costs. Right, my arse!!!!

[Fanblade]

“So we’re studying both scenarios as we look at the narrowbody decision and any subsequent discussion on scope would flow from that.”

Are you guys sure you are reading this correctly? He is not an "Airline" guy.

There is a very good chance what he meant was the size of the split order would flow from that.

Considering Bombardier fired its head of sales the day after this leaked? I'm thinking they know they lost the order for the cseries. AC is probably working on a tandum 705/Q order to placate. The other bit of info we have been able to gleen from the recent leaks is that AC also wants who ever they purchase from to take the 190's off their hands. I think only two manufacturers have that kind of muscle or history of doing so.

[hithere]

Not having any airframes between 76 seats(705) and 130 seats(319) would be a very odd way to run an airline

[Fanblade]

Not having any airframes between 76 seats(705) and 130 seats(319) would be a very odd way to run an airline

Really? Perhaps you should tell United, AMR, USairways (20 190's left but leaving) and Alaskan. Delta with the 717 is the only exception. Perhaps you should check out how many 318's or 737-600's have been sold as of late. Yet no one is really buying the cseries. Why is that?

Because with high fuel the business model changed. The smaller NB can not compete with the larger NB on CASM. Even WJ is ditching all its 600's in favor of 800's.

Instead of departing every hour. Depart every 1 1/2 with a larger aircraft. At the moment for example AC departs YVR for YYC every hour with 97 seats. WJ departs every 1 1/2 with about 150 seats. Both have the same amount of seats but WJ kills AC's CASM on the route. If the route can't support a larger NB? Increase frequency with a 75 seat aircraft. A 50 seat jet no longer works even if people worked for free. There are exceptions where an airline is operating without much competition, or against the same gauge aircraft, however the second they face a higher gauged competitor they are done.

This is the hurdle the cseries needs to clear to be successful. There is a reason airlines stopped buying 600's and 318's. Yes the cseries will have a cost advantage over the 600 and 318, however that will be short lived as the Neo and Max come on the market. As a result the sales so far of the CS100 have gone to niche short field markets.

What this means is AC is planning on copying what is going on around them. It means no small NB. It means a need for more aircraft in the 75 seat range than they currently have.

Of course the best and brightest will change their mind next week.

I think we will see a split order alright but not the cseries. Max or Neo ( looking like Neo) and a 705/Q order.



FWIW the 319 is 120 seats at AC.