WJ vs. AC......performance

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Duke p
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Duke p »

brooks wrote:
Duke p wrote:Well sunglass emoji guy........you can claim anything you like.....rationalize anything. You, nor I are running either operation. To me the "proof is in the pudding". After 20 years of "slow and methodical" WestJet let AC keep a boatload of that "up for grabs market share" Clive told us all was ripe for the picking......Why???


I can't say........but I can say from first hand experience......is that we're full nearly everywhere we fly, we're hiring 300 pilots in the next year, we have a ton of new aircraft enroute, and a variety of new and interesting destinations. As a pilot, (not an expert fleet planner, marketing director or CEO), I can say that things are very bright at AC, and I haven't lost one minutes sleep wondering if CR has things sorted.

What I also know is one hundred widebodies is definitely greater than four. Make all the money you like. How much is going back into capital purchase....aircraft purchase to be specific? Airplanes with bums in seats make money. More airplanes make more money. Problem is you have to find profitable routes to deploy those aircraft, and AC beat WJ to the punch with new destinations, many a time.

If your claim is "we're more profitable with the aircraft we have"......that's nice. We have more aircraft, more variety, more interesting routes, and they've never, ever missed paying me on time. I don't anticipate any change there. The change I do anticipate are a ton of new hires over the next few years, fast tracking it to the left seat. As a pilot, that's what matters to me......guys junior, more large aircraft to advance on. "Slow and methodical" doesn't promote rapid career progression.........looking over at that left seat knowing its still far off must be easier to swallow knowing your part of a "super healthy" company, and not just a healthy one. Thinner margins haven't affected me personally one bit....but a rapid climb up the seniority list certainly has.

Make money, be "slow and methodical" perhaps just prior to my retirement off the 777, I'll be concerned.

Another issue that is often forgotten in this "you vs. us" debate, is the impending merger. If either company is in dire straights due to the other, don't think for a second that another Canadian/AC merger will not be forced on us by the Government. They want taxpayers, not people standing in the unemployment line......if necessary, it WILL happen. We at AC are better at mergers than you guys.....we've got more experience. ;-)

It would take nothing to fold the WJ 737 fleet in with our own..........trust me, you don't want us gobbling you up, so you'd better hope for two healthy carriers in this country.

At the end of it all we're just pilots....not decision makers (thank goodness....)......good luck to you, I'm sure your career will be as long and rewarding as mine.

DP.
A tad naive. What makes you think that with a globalized economy some bigger foreign carrier doesn't step in and grabs a minority stake in WJ? Much easier to do given the lack of a union and all. Think about the bigger picture and not just your pretty toothpaste coloured 777 here. AC is still going to be in a ton of debt for the foreseeable future.

Be careful not to eat your own words because 4 widebodies can quickly turn into 50 and then you might have a real threat at AC.

Enjoy the cheap fuel while it lasts.
You guys have been predicting "doom and gloom" at Air Canada for the better part of two decades....there is nothing, including a rise in fuel cost, that threatens the go forward stategy at AC at this point......everything is speculation by those "not in the know". However, speculate away, and underestimate the intelligence of CR and his team all you like. I'll let his former track record with this airline speak for itself. Whatever helps you sleep better at night I guess......

Is that rumour of a "foreign power" coming in and revolutionizing WJ still floating around? The one where someone comes in and buys a bunch of widebodies, and has WestJet pilots fly them....then AC goes out of business and all the AC pilots are hired "junior" to every WestJet pilot??? Is that the one? It was Cathay last round.....who is it this round.....I've lost track. Trust me, no foreign airline is going to invest a "dime" without extracting a "dime and a nickel"....careful what you wish for.

Like I said, no one on this forum runs either company....no one is privy to the finer details of the "go forward strategy" of either company......it's ALL conjecture and wishful thinking......which is useless. Call me naïve, but a few posters on this forum drip with arrogance believing they could run either company better than those empowered by shareholders to actually do so. Neither management team is reckless, neither is "unaware" of low fuel prices, and it's potential rise moving forward. I will repeat what I said.......this "go forward plan" was formulated long before the fuel price drop....it is not contingent on it staying low........it's a ridiculous notion to think otherwise.

Realitychex.........you bring no new argument to the discussion.......the posters name changes, but the exact same argument remains.......this exact conversation already occurred 20 years ago, 15 years ago, 10 years ago, and five years ago.......I'll let the results of the past two decades and the growth, or lack thereof, of both companies speak loudly for me.....I need say absolutely nothing.

Enjoy your 737.

DP.
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brooks
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by brooks »

Enjoy the cheap fuel DP :lol:
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Realitychex
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Realitychex »

Prior to a couple of weeks ago, I've never heard any compelling rumors regarding any foreign airline "buying in" to WJA.

It would not be easy given the 25% foreign ownership cap, and WJ's shareholder base has always been pretty close to 25% since day one. Anyone wanting to make a strategic investment would have to convince a lot of existing foreign investors to sell, which would drive up the share price.

If the limits were increased to 49%, as has been rumored for the past decade or more, that'd open up some space. Such a scenario certainly isn't any sort of strategic requirement for WJ but might be something to be considered under the right circumstances. I'd be exceedingly surprised if, should it occur, that the investor would be Asian.

But why listen to me? Here's what Ed Bastian has to say about the matter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U77tZ0fYRNo

He who has the gold, (and not the fool's "EBITDAR" gold), tend to make the rules.

By the way, have you ever wondered why AC used the term "EBITDAR" 22 times in it's most recent earnings release?

The term, which is claimed to be a "commonly used" term in the airline sector, wasn't used once by Delta or WJ in their news releases to the general public. Indeed, if history repeats itself and you word search all the other publicly traded airlines quarterly releases, you'll note that Hawaiian will use the term between 5-7 times and no one else used the term once. Doesn't that strike you as a little odd?

Any guesses why? Have you ever read the AIF to see how exec bonuses are calculated? Maybe you should.

Besides, I suppose it looks a lot better to issue a press release to the largely unsophisticated public with a headline grabber suggesting a quarterly "profit" of $460m when in fact, after paying interest, it was just $52m, less than half of its principle competitor, and no taxes were paid on that income.

Have you ever wondered why there are never any analysts on AC calls that question anything of substance? Why there are no Jamie Baker's from JP Morgan asking tough questions to UAL executives like this?

Jamie: Hello. Oscar, there's little question that you delivered a pretty unimpressive guide for the second quarter. I realize that with everything going on with the Board, that may have been a distraction and you're getting involved with the flight attendant negotiations. Nobody is accusing you of not having a full plate here.

But traditionally when companies start falling further and further behind their competitors, and based on the guide, that is what you expect in the second quarter, they're faced with three choices. You can do nothing. You can simply try harder. Or you can come up with a new plan.

So my question is simple. Does mediocrity suffice? Is fixing United as simple as rolling up your sleeves and relying on easier comps? Or is something significantly more radical, a change in course, ultimately required?

Hmm. I wonder why.....?

Enjoy the cheap fuel. What the Lord giveth, the Lord taketh away.

And now that you mention YYT-LHR, any thoughts on what the collapse of advance purchase r/t fares to LHR during peak season from $1,226 pre WJ to around $790 today is doing to route profitability?

8)
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by atphat »

TLDR
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True North
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by True North »

Duke p wrote:I'll let the results of the past two decades and the growth, or lack thereof, of both companies speak loudly for me.....I need say absolutely nothing.

Enjoy your 737.

DP.
Do those results include Air Canada going bankrupt? Or are you conveniently forgetting that?
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Duke p
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Duke p »

brooks wrote:Enjoy the cheap fuel DP :lol:
I will....

I paid cash for a brand new boat this year, and expect my bonus to pay for a new road bike next. :)

DP.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Duke p »

True North wrote:
Duke p wrote:I'll let the results of the past two decades and the growth, or lack thereof, of both companies speak loudly for me.....I need say absolutely nothing.

Enjoy your 737.

DP.
Do those results include Air Canada going bankrupt? Or are you conveniently forgetting that?
You sir, have no idea what occurred in 2003. There are multiple threads on the topic....only a little research is required. I have referred to Clive's 2003 comment of Air Canada as a "Bankrupt Monopoly" many times.....so you could hardly say I forgot to mention it.

Why did WestJet not take advantage of their obviously superior position during this time??? Or was it a superior position? I don't recall a single flight being cancelled due to that event.

Even after that "strip mining incident"....here we are, as we are. WestJet is as it is....today. Shouldn't the roles be completely reversed???

Why aren't they???? That is the topic of this thread....

DP.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by True North »

Duke p wrote:
True North wrote:
Duke p wrote:I'll let the results of the past two decades and the growth, or lack thereof, of both companies speak loudly for me.....I need say absolutely nothing.

Enjoy your 737.

DP.
Do those results include Air Canada going bankrupt? Or are you conveniently forgetting that?
You sir, have no idea what occurred in 2003. There are multiple threads on the topic....only a little research is required. I have referred to Clive's 2003 comment of Air Canada as a "Bankrupt Monopoly" many times.....so you could hardly say I forgot to mention it.

Why did WestJet not take advantage of their obviously superior position during this time??? Or was it a superior position? I don't recall a single flight being cancelled due to that event.

Even after that "strip mining incident"....here we are, as we are. WestJet is as it is....today. Shouldn't the roles be completely reversed???

Why aren't they???? That is the topic of this thread....

DP.
WestJet has added about 6 aircraft per year to their fleet for 20 years. They have been profitable for all but something like 3 quarters through that time. During that same period, Air Canada went bankrupt and struggled to post a YOY profit for a lot of those years. They have turned a corner but only recently so if you are looking at a 20 year history, there's not a lot to crow about. It looks to me like WestJet took excellent advantage of their position so I'm not sure what you're getting at. Perhaps you think they should have added 10 or 15 or 20 a/c per year instead of 6?
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by True North »

Duke p wrote:
brooks wrote:Enjoy the cheap fuel DP :lol:
I will....

I paid cash for a brand new boat this year, and expect my bonus to pay for a new road bike next. :)

DP.
Are we supposed to be impressed?
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Realitychex
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Realitychex »

Are you familiar with the fable of the hare and the tortoise?

Why does WJ do what they do rather than blow their brains out buying a ton of new capacity, keeping all its old capacity and canibalizing market after market?

For precisely the same fundamental reason WJ didn't start with 10 aircraft on Feb 29, 1996 or add a second aircraft type until more than 15 years in the business.

Slow, steady, always profitable creeping growth, market by market, all the time developing a larger and larger feed network, a necessity for TATL and down the road, TPAC flying is to be successful. It's a bit like the Tholian Web. Look it up.

WJ prefers to avoid the boom and bust strategy that has been easily observed the past 20 years. You must be familiar how that works.

A near death experience, painful restructuring, prognostications of a limitless future due to the introduction of another new strategy and then back in the toilet the next time the market turns.

What causes fortunes to turn? Let's start with stubbornly high unit costs compared to their largest competitor, (32.5% higher last quarter, not taking into account the dramatic difference in ASL), falling yields, and then a macro event, such as the steady increase in fuel prices. That 'oughta do it.

Lest anyone forget, AC was bankrupt in 2003 and came exceedingly close to bankruptcy again about 6 years later. There have been numerous retrenchments since 1997. All the while, WJ generates quarter after quarter of profits, expands into one safe harbor after another, last month Boston, this month London, next month Nashville, - it'll be interesting to see how that works -, and down the road, who knows?

Sprechen sie deutsch? Given the extraordinarily high fares to Germany these days, I would imagine that would be very high on the hit parade. Paris? Why bother? Advance fares from Toronto to Frankfurt and Munich this summer have consistently been in the $1,850 range since mid March. Paris has been consistently under $1,000 from YYZ and about $100 less from Montreal. Hmm. 13 cents a mile to Paris, or 18.6 cents a mile to FRA and 19.4 cents a mile to MUC. That, friend, is called low hanging fruit, and it from where I sit, it sure looks ripe for the pickin'.

I wonder what Canada - Germany profitability is going to look like within a couple of summers, perhaps even by next summer? Probably about as disrupted as Canada - UK profitability already is these days.

I'm sure the scuttlebutt is that "yield management" is handling it and profitability remains the same, or better than ever! Of course, were that the case and airlines had figured out how to cut fares by 30% and make more money doing so, they would have already done so network wide, and not just when a new entrant enters a market.

Funny. That hasn't happened. I can't imagine why.

Here's some interesting data. AC had 25,100 FTE's at year end 2015 and paid out a total of $2.324b in wages, salaries, benefits. That's an average of $92,589.64 per fte. Do the same calculation for WJ. You might be surprised where that number ended up. It sure surprised me.

8)
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Duke p
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Duke p »

Ya know guys......at the end of the day we're a bunch of antagonists. We provide entertainment for others, no more. We're getting nowhere.

You, nor I are privy to the state of the Economy two years down the road. We're not privy to our respective business strategies, nor are we even remotely aware of what our respective CEO's are thinking. We could go on forever, back and forth.......all for not. Nothing you or anyone says on this Forum will have one single affect on our respective Companies down-line performance.

On that note I truly wish you guys luck. There is not one person that wants to see any group on the street without a means to feed their families.

This country needs two healthy airlines to stave off rouge ( :wink: ) upstarts that do nothing but drag us all down into the mud.

Here's to a healthy duopoly! :smt008


P.S. Welcome to the "big leagues" by the way. It's getting harder to tell us apart with all the new aircraft types and bases.......Overseas ops are very interesting, and certainly challenging, as you'll find out. Has anyone considered the "gone mechanical in Gatwick" thing yet? How many 737's will you have to send to rescue 265 people......guess you could give us a call! :wink:

DP.
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Duke p
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Duke p »

True North wrote:
Duke p wrote:
brooks wrote:Enjoy the cheap fuel DP :lol:
I will....

I paid cash for a brand new boat this year, and expect my bonus to pay for a new road bike next. :)

DP.
Are we supposed to be impressed?
Should be, it was paid for with the bonus I got entirely from cheep fuel...... apparently. :wink:
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by True North »

Duke p wrote:Ya know guys......at the end of the day we're a bunch of antagonists. We provide entertainment for others, no more. We're getting nowhere.

You, nor I are privy to the state of the Economy two years down the road. We're not privy to our respective business strategies, nor are we even remotely aware of what our respective CEO's are thinking. We could go on forever, back and forth.......all for not. Nothing you or anyone says on this Forum will have one single affect on our respective Companies down-line performance.

On that note I truly wish you guys luck. There is not one person that wants to see any group on the street without a means to feed their families.

This country needs two healthy airlines to stave off rouge ( :wink: ) upstarts that do nothing but drag us all down into the mud.

Here's to a healthy duopoly! :smt008

P.S. Welcome to the "big leagues" by the way. It's getting harder to tell us apart with all the new aircraft types and bases.......Overseas ops are very interesting, and certainly challenging, as you'll find out. Has anyone considered the "gone mechanical in Gatwick" thing yet? How many 737's will you have to send to rescue 265 people......guess you could give us a call! :wink:

DP.
Well that's a gracious capitulation, I'll give you that. :lol:

For the record, I don't work for WestJet and to the best of my knowledge neither does Realitychex. I'm a WestJet fan and an Air Canada fan and I find it endlessly amusing hearing how pilots think the business should be run.

Your "welcome to the big leagues" is a little gratuitous, and late. WestJet started flying "overseas" two years ago. I'm sure they've considered the "gone mechanical in Gatwick thing" so I wouldn't be sitting by the phone waiting for a call for a rescue flight. They have Omni on standby for that.

Enjoy the ride while you can.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by brooks »

AC vs WJ. :smt008
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by atphat »

After all those droning posts Realitychex doesn't work for WJ? He's just a fanboy? :lol: That can't be true.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by aerobod »

atphat wrote:After all those droning posts Realitychex doesn't work for WJ? He's just a fanboy? :lol: That can't be true.
He no longer works for WestJet, but is one of the four founders.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Realitychex »

There are 4 founders of WestJet?

I've said for many months the biggest risk to WJ's TATL expansion is aircraft reliability.

WJ have mitigated that risk by having 2 spare aircraft to operate a 3 aircraft sched, (not including the 3 737's that cross the pond daily).

That scenario will ultimately change, and judging what I've heard from a variety of sources, it'll be sooner rather than later.

In other words, I wouldn't be betting that WJ's organic WB fleet will remain at 4 aircraft this time next year.

8)
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by aerobod »

Realitychex wrote:There are 4 founders of WestJet?
The "official" history has 4 core founders (many other people on day 1, of course). Your mugshot is up there :)
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Old fella »

Many years back late 60' s our famed Atlantic airline EPA got into the jet age with introduction of B737. Well Wilbour, you had to be around then to hear the commentary EPA vs AC , who was the best dealing with Maritime WX, who had best service, who had the best pilots, best looking FAs, best airplanes. EPA could do no wrong and Air Canada could do no right. No net nor social media but if there was jeez it would be as good as a concert. Fast forward to 2016, other week I was driving by YHZ and for sure I saw a B767 Air Canada departing............the logo has been around quite a long time

Duke P
PS enjoy yer new boat and a few sips on her. If you retired from the B777, you have been around as long as I have. :drinkers:
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Duke p
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

Post by Duke p »

True North wrote:
Duke p wrote:Ya know guys......at the end of the day we're a bunch of antagonists. We provide entertainment for others, no more. We're getting nowhere.

You, nor I are privy to the state of the Economy two years down the road. We're not privy to our respective business strategies, nor are we even remotely aware of what our respective CEO's are thinking. We could go on forever, back and forth.......all for not. Nothing you or anyone says on this Forum will have one single affect on our respective Companies down-line performance.

On that note I truly wish you guys luck. There is not one person that wants to see any group on the street without a means to feed their families.

This country needs two healthy airlines to stave off rouge ( :wink: ) upstarts that do nothing but drag us all down into the mud.

Here's to a healthy duopoly! :smt008

P.S. Welcome to the "big leagues" by the way. It's getting harder to tell us apart with all the new aircraft types and bases.......Overseas ops are very interesting, and certainly challenging, as you'll find out. Has anyone considered the "gone mechanical in Gatwick" thing yet? How many 737's will you have to send to rescue 265 people......guess you could give us a call! :wink:

DP.
Well that's a gracious capitulation, I'll give you that. :lol:

For the record, I don't work for WestJet and to the best of my knowledge neither does Realitychex. I'm a WestJet fan and an Air Canada fan and I find it endlessly amusing hearing how pilots think the business should be run.

Your "welcome to the big leagues" is a little gratuitous, and late. WestJet started flying "overseas" two years ago. I'm sure they've considered the "gone mechanical in Gatwick thing" so I wouldn't be sitting by the phone waiting for a call for a rescue flight. They have Omni on standby for that.

Enjoy the ride while you can.
Not sure you could call it "capitulating"....but whatever. Mostly just tired of Realitychex.......his/her argument did nothing to explain why Air Canada still exists today......and in it's current form. What exists today at WestJet and Air Canada was not predicted by CB 14 years ago......not even close. I will let the existing organizations in 2016 speak for themselves, they need not my help.

I wouldn't go so far as to call a 737 operation from Newfoundland to Dublin the "big leagues" however....I guess its a matter of personal perspective. :wink:

Thanks for the "enjoy the ride while u can comment" .......being very well placed on a seniority list, on a carrier that proudly flys the Maple Leaf. I assure you it's impossible not to........I'll raise a pint to "team teal" in Amsterdam next week. :wink:

DP.
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