WJ vs. AC......performance

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True North
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#126 Post by True North » Tue May 10, 2016 5:58 pm

jetsetfly wrote:Supposed to get 2 More 767's,deal didn't go through so won't be getting anymore, it will just be the 4 for now for WJ.
I was told that's because the agreement with the pilots is only for 4 widebody aircraft and the company was not able to renegotiate the LOA in time to make an offer on the available aircraft. Please tell me that's not true.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#127 Post by altiplano » Tue May 10, 2016 6:02 pm

Realitychex wrote:[
Is there a Canadian flag on AC's livery? There's always been one on WJ's....

Just sayin'......
What are you just saying?

You guys are pieces of work. Circle the wagon and misdirect all you like. The fact is the crippled AC of years past is turning around and the narrative you're hanging into is one from 15 years ago. Yet with recent problems, a mature workforce and the end of growth at westjet you'll be wondering what happened...

3 ex-Westjet pilots in Air Canada ground schools last month...

Realitychek/bean your analytics are flawed and you certainly don't reveal the entire picture. Clearly your horse can do no wrong and with your personal grudge with Air Canada due to a history resulting in resignations, law suits, settlements and apologies, I doubt they can ever do right in your eyes...
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#128 Post by Realitychex » Tue May 10, 2016 10:57 pm

altiplano wrote:
Realitychex wrote:[
Is there a Canadian flag on AC's livery? There's always been one on WJ's....

Just sayin'......
What are you just saying?

You guys are pieces of work. Circle the wagon and misdirect all you like. The fact is the crippled AC of years past is turning around and the narrative you're hanging into is one from 15 years ago. Yet with recent problems, a mature workforce and the end of growth at westjet you'll be wondering what happened...

3 ex-Westjet pilots in Air Canada ground schools last month...

Realitychek/bean your analytics are flawed and you certainly don't reveal the entire picture. Clearly your horse can do no wrong and with your personal grudge with Air Canada due to a history resulting in resignations, law suits, settlements and apologies, I doubt they can ever do right in your eyes...
The bottom line has always been and always will be the bottom line. Focus on verifiable data, not anecdotal stories and spin.

8)
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#129 Post by mbav8r » Wed May 11, 2016 5:19 am

Realitychex, your entire argument is based on the fact WJs margins are higher and if oil has a significant rebound AC is doomed. Are you saying that WJ would let oil erode those margins? Just sit by and watch their profits plummet?
I find it humorous that with all the "growing" pains WJ has been experiencing as of late, anyone would try and compare a nearly 80 year old former crown corporation to one whose starting captain pay was 55.00/hr, have I thanked you for that lately, you better get your cost creep in line.
How long before Saretsky adds E175s or Cseries to Encores operating certificate? After all it was modelled after Horizon, almost identical, only a matter of time I suppose.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#130 Post by altiplano » Wed May 11, 2016 6:27 am

Good point mbav8 -

and when Boeing pulls the plug on the max-7, which has only 2 customers including westjet, there is going to be a gap to fill.

I wonder where those RJs or whatever will go? Then 4 types on the card? Maybe 5 if the 787 ever shows up...

Starting to sound familiar...

westjet wants into the 'big leagues' and wants to be an international network carrier... gonna show everyone how it's done. LOL.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#131 Post by YYZSaabGuy » Wed May 11, 2016 7:34 am

Realitychex wrote:Is there a Canadian flag on AC's livery? There's always been one on WJ's....

Just sayin'......:wink:
That's a spectacularly stupid question, equivalent to "Does the word 'Canada' appear in WJ's name? Because it's always been part of AC's.... Just sayin' :wink: "
What the hell do you plan for an encore? "My old man could beat your old man........."?
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#132 Post by Transonic » Wed May 11, 2016 8:22 am

Duke p wrote:
Mostly just tired of Realitychex.......his/her argument did nothing to explain why Air Canada still exists today......and in it's current form.
I think he has explained that tirelessly. A low interest rate environment combined with cheap fuel is funding an irrational expansion. Why is it irrational? Growth is sacrificing yield for marketshare. Why do I care? Our WS stock price, which is now only rising after a year of decline. Why did that happen? The street became concerned in 2014 that our competitor is engaging in destructive completion for marketshare. (Our stock started its decline prior to the Alberta economic concerns) Does ESPP align the interests of the employee with the interests of the company? YES!!!!!!

Realitychex, I suppose AMS would be also be grouped with CDG as an over serve market?
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#133 Post by Transonic » Wed May 11, 2016 8:24 am

altiplano wrote:Good point mbav8 -

and when Boeing pulls the plug on the max-7, which has only 2 customers including westjet, there is going to be a gap to fill.

.
If they do, then the "MAX 7.5." It would be a shrink of a MAX 8 sharing the same wing structure, fuel capacity and uprated engines resulting in a 4000nm 150 seat aircraft. Boeing is looking to make a pivot due to the loss of sales to the NEO.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-cons ... 1461259670
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#134 Post by fish4life » Wed May 11, 2016 9:52 am

One of the Max 7 orders is from southwest so I'd imagine it's safe. SouthWest can get anything they want from Boeing
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#135 Post by groundpilot » Wed May 11, 2016 4:01 pm

Transonic wrote:
Duke p wrote:
Mostly just tired of Realitychex.......his/her argument did nothing to explain why Air Canada still exists today......and in it's current form.
I think he has explained that tirelessly. A low interest rate environment combined with cheap fuel is funding an irrational expansion. Why is it irrational? Growth is sacrificing yield for marketshare. Why do I care? Our WS stock price, which is now only rising after a year of decline. Why did that happen? The street became concerned in 2014 that our competitor is engaging in destructive completion for marketshare. (Our stock started its decline prior to the Alberta economic concerns) Does ESPP align the interests of the employee with the interests of the company? YES!!!!!!

Realitychex, I suppose AMS would be also be grouped with CDG as an over serve market?
I guess all the new hires that got on the B777 recently should just quit and apply to Encore to get on those Dash 8s...to then maybe hope for a prayer to fly a B737 :shock:
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#136 Post by fruitloops » Wed May 11, 2016 11:28 pm

Thought I would look at a longer term chart of both WJA and AC and it reveals that both companies are pretty much trading identically. So market sentiment and reactions to both companies have been similar over the past 3 years. I'm talking trends not specific stock prices of course.

WJ was in an uptrend through the end of 2014 and so was AC that lasted just a few months longer. Thereafter, both began downtrends which both ended in Feb/Mar 2016.

Are the airlines really performing that differently? Not really when you look at the directions and timing of these trends.

One thing to note is that the price of oil traded somewhat proportionally to these stocks, not inversely as one would think. I think that demonstrates that the overall economy is a much greater factor on airline trends than the price of oil itself for both WJ and AC.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#137 Post by True North » Thu May 12, 2016 8:06 am

fruitloops wrote:Thought I would look at a longer term chart of both WJA and AC and it reveals that both companies are pretty much trading identically. So market sentiment and reactions to both companies have been similar over the past 3 years. I'm talking trends not specific stock prices of course.

WJ was in an uptrend through the end of 2014 and so was AC that lasted just a few months longer. Thereafter, both began downtrends which both ended in Feb/Mar 2016.

Are the airlines really performing that differently? Not really when you look at the directions and timing of these trends.

One thing to note is that the price of oil traded somewhat proportionally to these stocks, not inversely as one would think. I think that demonstrates that the overall economy is a much greater factor on airline trends than the price of oil itself for both WJ and AC.
Oh come on fruitloops, you're applying metrics and common sense. Way to hijack the thread.

Diatribes only!
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#138 Post by watermeth » Thu May 12, 2016 4:10 pm

that's interesting to see they both follow the same path.
do you have events for March & october 2014 besides quaterly reports ?
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#139 Post by altiplano » Thu May 12, 2016 5:33 pm

You've got to look closer at the chart though to see really what the market is saying.

west jet peaked up ~50%, and now is back down to where it was 3 years ago.

Air Canada peaked up ~1300% and back down to being up overall about 900% in that same period.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#140 Post by aerobod » Thu May 12, 2016 7:18 pm

A view of share prices over the past 10 years:
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WestJet share price over the last 10 years
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Air Canada share price over the last 10 years
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#141 Post by watermeth » Thu May 12, 2016 7:49 pm

to stick to the basics, cash per share, net margin ratio and long term debt over equity are key elements to determine a company's health and capacity to make money.
stock price doesn't mean much compared to value. price is only the mirror of what investors are willing to pay to obtain this particular stock. it comes and goes with good or bad news, newspaper's front page, media coverage, etc... just look up bbd. price is more or less bs because it will always have a tendency to go back to its value when tough times show up UNLESS the company is in a solid good economic health.
however a significant drop or rally has its reason. It's interesting to know why.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#142 Post by Duke p » Sat May 28, 2016 2:22 pm

Transonic wrote:
Duke p wrote:
Mostly just tired of Realitychex.......his/her argument did nothing to explain why Air Canada still exists today......and in it's current form.
I think he has explained that tirelessly. A low interest rate environment combined with cheap fuel is funding an irrational expansion. Why is it irrational? Growth is sacrificing yield for marketshare. Why do I care? Our WS stock price, which is now only rising after a year of decline. Why did that happen? The street became concerned in 2014 that our competitor is engaging in destructive completion for marketshare. (Our stock started its decline prior to the Alberta economic concerns) Does ESPP align the interests of the employee with the interests of the company? YES!!!!!!

Realitychex, I suppose AMS would be also be grouped with CDG as an over serve market?
"Irrational growth".........irrational based on what exactly?? You know nothing of the go forward strategy....it doesn't "look right" to you, and you don't understand it, hence.....???

CEO's, brilliant CEO's I might add, care not what you deem "irrational".

There is a plan......just watch, and quote me later. 8)

DP.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#143 Post by Fanblade » Wed Jun 01, 2016 12:06 pm

groundpilot wrote: A low interest rate environment combined with cheap fuel is funding an irrational expansion. Why is it irrational? Growth is sacrificing yield for marketshare.
Air Canada and US airways were the only two airlines in North America to follow the Seabury plan of chasing yield following the bankruptcies of the early to mid 2000's. Use of smaller aircraft to attempt to right size a market. Keep supply tight and yield high. It doesn't work. US Airways went bankrupt twice. Air Canada went bankrupt almost twice. US Airways started their upguaging and densification process ( chasing CASM) by the end of last decade. Air Canada not wiping their balance sheet clean a second time, took well into 2012 to begin the upguaging process. This is a transition that continues today and will not be complete for a few years to come.

A couple of examples.

5 years ago YYZ - YVR was almost entirely narrow body. Today the route has five flights a day less, yet an increase of seats available as the route has transitioned to far more wide bodies. Remember many of these wide bodies coming into the fleet are narrow body replacement, rather than fin growth. AC has shed 35 narrow bodies in the last 4 years.

5 years from now AC's tier two feeders will be the same size as they were 5 years ago. But they too are going through fleet renewal and upguaging. Same amount of aircraft but twice the amount of seats.

The vast majority of AC's growth is not flights or destinations. It's mostly seat growth through upguaging, densification and better utilization. AC's overall fin count has barely changed. Pilot numbers are up but only by a couple hundred. Normal retirement rates of 100-150/year are transitioning back, so although hiring is strong attrition is increasing.

So what is actually going on? What does upguaging and densification do to yield/revenue/CASM? The densification happens in cattle class. This drives down the yield/seat mile of the entire aircraft because the percentage of cheap seats increases. This creates a situation of decreasing yield/seat but an overall increase in revenue. Upguaging and densification also drive CASM down. So although yield/seat is dropping, revenue/flight is climbing and CASM dropping. So long as CASM drops faster than RASM all is good. This isn't Majic. AC is simply following the lead of the America legacy carriers, albeit 10 years behind.
groundpilot wrote: Why do I care? Our WS stock price, which is now only rising after a year of decline. Why did that happen? The street became concerned in 2014 that our competitor is engaging in destructive completion for marketshare. (Our stock started its decline prior to the Alberta economic concerns) Does ESPP align the interests of the employee with the interests of the company? YES!!!!!!
Your competitor is not behaving in a destructive manor. They are evolving into a better competitor. Slowly moving away from one business model in the direction of another. That won't change. I admit there has been a lot of misunderstanding about how and why AC is transitioning from one business model to another. However if you understand it, you quickly realize why it makes sence. The model in simple terms is to gauge match or out gauge your competitor.

The small jet purchase was probably one of the biggest gaffs in AC history. Notice how I can be critical yet at the same time supportive of the company I work for. They made a large error. WJ has benefited from that error. As the error gets corrected competition will increase.

WJ is also evolving. I suspect they too will start to follow suit with larger aircraft. That's what competitors do. You have already started with dumping some 600's in favor of 800's. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an increase of widebody transcon. I don't believe WJ might make a widebody order soon. I believe they have no choice but to make one. I suspect those Max-7's might become -8/9's as well.

Cheers.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#144 Post by Airbrake » Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:20 pm

"WJ is also evolving. I suspect they too will start to follow suit with larger aircraft. That's what competitors do. You have already started with dumping some 600's in favor of 800's. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an increase of widebody transcon. I don't believe WJ might make a widebody order soon. I believe they have no choice but to make one. I suspect those Max-7's might become -8/9's as well."


WestJet has not offloaded any -600's yet. Attempted but found no takers.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#145 Post by Fanblade » Sat Jun 04, 2016 10:46 pm

I thought Southwest took a half dozen 600's?

Not that it makes much difference. There is no difference between actually of loading, and attempted offloading, when both speak to the lack of desirability of a smaller narrow body.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#146 Post by mikeecho » Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:03 am

Duke p wrote:
Transonic wrote:
Duke p wrote: CEO's, brilliant CEO's I might add, care not what you deem "irrational".
I'd suggest that the opposite it likely true based on his resume.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#147 Post by Realitychex » Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:29 pm

Transat's comments after their "winter best forgotten".

"As far as summer is concerned, the steep 15 per cent increase in capacity on the transatlantic market is affecting prices and load factors … We expect to report results inferior to those of the record summer seasons we have seen in recent years.”

"Summer 2016 – The transatlantic market outbound from Canada and Europe accounts for a substantial portion of Transat's business during the summer season. For the period May to October 2016, total industry capacity is higher by 15%, while that of the Corporation is higher by 7%. To date, Transat's load factors on that market are lower by 3.3% than those of summer 2015, 62% of the capacity has been sold, and selling prices of bookings taken are lower by 6.3% than those recorded at the same date in 2015."

No one should be surprised by this.

There is ample evidence out the ying yang that Transat is not the only carrier seeing this situation. YOY fares to London are down somewhere around 14-17% and loads can't get much better than they were in the spring / summer of 2015 to make up for it because they were already full.

Besides, we've all seen the results of the " lose a little on every seat but make it up on volume" strategy

Lest there are any concerns that WS is flying empty iron across the Atlantic, try to book a non-stop seat across the Atlantic from YYZ or YYC this evening. Both are sold out. Again.

One doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out what the precipitous decline in yields, all yields, will do to route profitability.

This pattern has been going on for 20 years. The most recent example is Toronto to Nashville. After a week in the market, try buying a seat on next Monday's BNA - YYZ flight.

Next up will be the claims that certain airlines are immune to yield erosion for reasons unknown, just like they've been immune to LCC competition in every other market they've ever contested over the past 20 years. But London is, um, er, "different".

:lol:
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#148 Post by ckl » Thu Jun 09, 2016 3:19 pm

''A terrible experience all around"
Kelly Freer (Canada) 9th June 2016

''✅ Verified Review | A terrible experience all around with Westjet to Gatwick, and will fly Air Canada next time as it provides more gratis services and more reliable entertainment that works for the whole flight. For our flight there we had no entertainment and the flight home it was off and on. As far as food goes we each paid 15$ for a pre-order meal, and in comparison there are free ones on Air Canada or Lufthansa. It also came to us 4 hrs into our overnight flight, when at that point we just wanted to sleep. The overhead lights were off for maybe an hour, so sleeping on the overnight flight was practically impossible anyway. Flight attendants barely came around with water on the flight there and everybody was so parched people were asking for two glasses unsure of when the next time they would come by. You have to pay for your first checked bag even though it is an international flight which makes boarding a nightmare for all of the oversized carry ons. The booze is not free on this international flight so don't even think you'll get relief from that." . . ....... With reviews like that I guess WestJet does not care about repeat business.
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#149 Post by Realitychex » Thu Jun 09, 2016 3:55 pm

ckl wrote:''A terrible experience all around"
Kelly Freer (Canada) 9th June 2016

''✅ Verified Review | A terrible experience all around with Westjet to Gatwick, and will fly Air Canada next time as it provides more gratis services and more reliable entertainment that works for the whole flight. For our flight there we had no entertainment and the flight home it was off and on. As far as food goes we each paid 15$ for a pre-order meal, and in comparison there are free ones on Air Canada or Lufthansa. It also came to us 4 hrs into our overnight flight, when at that point we just wanted to sleep. The overhead lights were off for maybe an hour, so sleeping on the overnight flight was practically impossible anyway. Flight attendants barely came around with water on the flight there and everybody was so parched people were asking for two glasses unsure of when the next time they would come by. You have to pay for your first checked bag even though it is an international flight which makes boarding a nightmare for all of the oversized carry ons. The booze is not free on this international flight so don't even think you'll get relief from that." . . ....... With reviews like that I guess WestJet does not care about repeat business.

Really? You want to go there?

Jesper Andersson (Denmark) 26th May 2016

✅ Verified Review | I flew with Air Canada Rouge from Lima to Toronto . All in all a really bad experience and if you can avoid them do it! For a 7,5 hour long flight there wasn't an IFE screen at the seats. The seats were cramped and uncomfortable. The food was not that good and the only option there was, was egg as they ran out of the other option which was chicken.

Did anyone else happen to look at AA and UAL' s May traffic release? TATL numbers? Combined with YOY prasm declines?

Lookin' good eh?

What me worry?
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Re: WJ vs. AC......performance

#150 Post by ckl » Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:41 pm

"There wasn't an IFE screen at the seats"? Wireless streaming of movies and more, direct to your personal electronic device is the standard on all Rouge aircraft which I suspect is the standard on a WestJet 767-300 also.
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