Swoop Blacklist

[GAF]

So listen JS. We know you want to de certify. Ok fine. But why? You wouldn't be makinng your O/T $$ without union help. I've been at WS for over 17 years. I want it to be profitable. But not at the expense of the new and upcoming pilots. We should be paid what we are worth. The young guys climbing the ranks should be compensated what they are worth. It's a pretty simple formula.

[NewCommercialPilot]

GAF. I'm not actually working much OT these days, and haven't for the last two years. Ripping the skies in my wingsuit, and most recently I'm in the final stages of my wingsuit airspeed indicator design that I'm calling the WingNut.

I'm not sure, but I don't recall any unionized shops going the non-seniority route for schedule bidding. Care to name a few? Same with no reserve, care to name a few? How about the combined list between WJ and WJE? I'm sure there is lots that A*** has done, but nothing it is going to do at WJ is going to be in my interest, unless it is bringing in seniority bidding. Everything else will be a net negative for me. But none of that is under my influence, I'm not a member and not going to be a member. It's not my thing.

As far as de-certifying, I'm willing to wait until the shitshow that has just begun plays out.

The WingNut goes on sale in early 2019. Retail price is going to be $499 USD if you want to reserve yours now. The price may go up.

Cheers

[Realitychex]

Having recently completed a granular independent analysis of Swoop and the ULCC opportunity in Canada, something I’m pretty sure ALPA has yet to do, (and even if they did, it would not be anywhere as detailed or realistic in projected outcomes), it would become clear that It is in all parties interests to sit down and cut a deal that works, and soon.

Is the analysis accurate? Given that WJ wouldn’t exist today without the analysis that I did way back when, and that the WJ analysis went on to be the basis of the analysis of what became JetBlue and a couple of other airlines now flying today, I wouldn’t ignore it.

In spite of all the positioning / rumors etc, I don’t believe Swoop rates will take wages into the dark ages.

What becomes readily apparent in the analysis is that Swoop is poised to do to incumbents what WJ did in 1996. Airlines operating A319’s, (even “free”319’s), or 737-400’s are going to be in no position to compete with Swoop’s fully allocated unit costs and the sort of fares that will be seen on the network that is likely to be developed. They are miles apart.

Airlines operating that equipment with those fundamental costs are going to have to be completely rejigged within a year of Swoop getting 10 airframes, and we all know what that means.

ALPA doesn’t want to hear that sort of talk. It’s in AlPA’s interests that none of this comes to pass.

The problem is that if it’s not Swoop, it’ll be someone else. Given what I know, and were I 20 years younger, I’d assemble a crack team and do it myself.

Anyone connected with WJ should know the value of being the first mover and the old phrase about “ the devil you know”. Swoop is not the devil. Some folks may not like it, but if you are a Westjetter, you should seriously contemplate the end game should some entity other than a WJ based operation come to pass because it would likely be way, way worse.

If you saw the Cdn specific ULCC analysis, I think the posturing would end pretty quickly and a deal that everyone could live with would get done.

It’ll be interesting to watch whether ALPA will represent “pilots” best interests, or more importantly if my paycheque and long term career prospects comes from the success of WJ, “WestJet pilots” best interests.

They are two very different things.

Happy Holidays

[saltypilot]

Nobody is saying Swoop shouldn’t happen...We are saying it should NOT happen at the expense of pilots wages & working conditions. End of story.
Any pilot worth their salt will not be short sighted enough to condone supporting this abomination in its current form and how they’re intending to compensate.
I’m going to take a stab in the dark and say that any company’s books would look good if you make the parent pay for all the expenses while you only show the profits.
Swoop will not have my support until EVERYTHING with respect to wages & working conditions is a carbon copy of its Parent...that’s just the right thing to do.

Nothing personal...just business...Pilot business

[atphat]

Does GS take a pay cut when he works on the Swoop project? Has any other WJ employee working on the project so far taken a pay cut? What about the web designers who made the pretty pink plane picture? Did they do it at market rates or for a fraction of them? Give me a break.

[short bus]

"I'm sure there is lots that A*** has done, but nothing it is going to do at WJ is going to be in my interest, unless it is bringing in seniority bidding. Everything else will be a net negative for me. But none of that is under my influence, I'm not a member and not going to be a member. It's not my thing."

This here folks is what the problem is. People like this. Hey bud, news flash, Its not just about you. And seriously, why do you need several different accounts on this site to post under?

[Realitychex]

Funny. No one has asked what I have in for pilot pay (and f/a pay) in the model.

You might be surprised.

[180]

What do you have in for pilot and FA pay?

[atphat]

Funny. No one has asked what I have in for pilot pay (and f/a pay) in the model.

You might be surprised.

I think if it’s not equal too or greater than current WJ WAWCON no one cares. If it was. You’d have already crowed about it.

[mbav8r]

GAF. I'm not actually working much OT these days, and haven't for the last two years. Ripping the skies in my wingsuit, and most recently I'm in the final stages of my wingsuit airspeed indicator design that I'm calling the WingNut.

I'm not sure, but I don't recall any unionized shops going the non-seniority route for schedule bidding. Care to name a few? Same with no reserve, care to name a few? How about the combined list between WJ and WJE? I'm sure there is lots that A*** has done, but nothing it is going to do at WJ is going to be in my interest, unless it is bringing in seniority bidding. Everything else will be a net negative for me. But none of that is under my influence, I'm not a member and not going to be a member. It's not my thing.

As far as de-certifying, I'm willing to wait until the shitshow that has just begun plays out.

The WingNut goes on sale in early 2019. Retail price is going to be $499 USD if you want to reserve yours now. The price may go up.

Cheers

Rouge

[Realitychex]

Let’s just say it’s a hell of a lot more than what it’ll be for everyone if WJ abdicates it’s spot in the Cdn industry as the low cost leader.

I know what others are planning to pay their guys and it’s a quantum leap above that.

I ran it by a number of very senior guys I know who still fly the line.

It’s a good number.

[JBI]

Let’s just say it’s a hell of a lot more than what it’ll be for everyone if WJ abdicates it’s spot in the Cdn industry as the low cost leader.

I know what others are planning to pay their guys and it’s a quantum leap above that.

...

It’s a good number.

Hi Realitychex,

Thanks for your input on this matter. I'm curious about your thoughts with respect to the supply/demand of pilots now and for the next decade with respect to the launching of all these new ULCCs in Canada, whether it be Swoop or Jetlines or Flair or FlyToo.

While in the US, Spirit and Frontier (and to a lesser extent JetBlue, Allegiant and Virgin (before the merger)) are able to attract experienced pilots from the regionals because the pay and working conditions have, for now, been better than at the regionals but the flow programs in the US really have just started. With the increase of regional pay and the maturing of 'flow' programs, I get the sense that it is becoming slightly harder, but do note that JetBlue, Virgin and Allegiant already generally pay higher than WJ mainline rates.

In Canada, the main regionals already have a 'flow' program in place, so the ULCCs would have to offer significantly improved working conditions to attract experienced candidates. I can't see all that many 737 Captain qualified pilots leaving Encore, Jazz, Sky Regional or even Georgian to go fly a 737 for rates lower than the general industry standard. Will there be some pilots out there who would find it an attractive job - maybe, and I honestly don't judge them - there are many reasons for people to take different jobs (i.e. maybe a Skyregional Capt got the PFO from AC and they'd be eligible for a quick upgrade on the 737 which would pay a bit more money than they're currently getting at SKY). I just don't see the pool of experienced pilots as being all that big at the moment where multiple airlines can come in paying a lower standard of wages and fully crew their aircraft. It's one thing to budget a certain salary and cost structure, but as the regionals in the US are now finding out, if that doesn't attract enough experienced pilots, you have to make some changes to the cost structure.

Just curious what your thoughts are with respect to various proposed rates and the supply of experienced pilots. Do you think it is enough to attract enough experienced pilots?

Whether it be Swoop or any of the other ULCCs, these carriers still seem caught in the old way of thinking that pilots, experienced ones especially, are an added cost. In my humble opinion, the most successful airlines for the next decade, and the Canadian ULCC that will survive will be the one that compensates their pilots the best. While the key to success of the ULCCs is controlling costs, you still have to actually crew the aircraft. Maybe that's WJ upper management's plan all along, but the route that they are taking to get there is significantly eroding pilot trust in them.

It's certainly easy while sitting on my recliner and enjoying a Christmas Eve beverage to comment, but I can't help but think that upper management at WJ has made quite a miscalculation in trying to play hardball with Swoop rates instead of getting the pilots onboard on 4/20 when this whole venture was announced.

[saltypilot]

Let’s just say it’s a hell of a lot more than what it’ll be for everyone if WJ abdicates it’s spot in the Cdn industry as the low cost leader.

I know what others are planning to pay their guys and it’s a quantum leap above that.

I ran it by a number of very senior guys I know who still fly the line.

It’s a good number.

Well, let’s hear all about it. There truly is only one word that counts....Parity...anything short of that is not acceptable. If Swoop can only make $ by short changing the pilots (and any other working group for that matter) then this is a failed business plan.

[altiplano]

Out of the woodwork RC!
When the going gets tough, out come the big guns, glad to see you.

Allegiant is a successful ULCC.

They matched American Airlines Narrowbody Captain rates to keep experienced crews. These guys get paid more than the highest paid Widebody pilots in Canada to fly an MD80.

The airline still makes tons of money.

If I recall among the highest Operating Margins of ANY North American Airline. Do you have a recent scorecard?

Eroding pilot the pay isn't the secret to making money or making this venture successful...

[atphat]

But wait....it's a GOOD number! LOL

[Bede]

Hey RealtyChex,

Thanks for your insight on this forum. I am curious though, about your statement that the ULCC segment is ripe for the picking in Canada. If this was true, why have the only companies that have tried this model failed? Why can't those with an "excellent" track record (ie Tim Morgan) secure sufficient investment to get their idea off the ground?

I'll leave it to the bean counters to tell me if there's a business case for it but the way I see it, there is very little to trim off to get the CASM down much further (other than more seats). Everything else will cost pretty much the same.

The way I see it, if the smart money thought that there was a business case for it, Enerjet, Jetlines, Flair would be off to the races by now.

[Mostly Harmless]

I'm not a member and not going to be a member. It's not my thing.

I might be mistaken here but, if you are not a member does that mean you will not be able to vote upon a contract when one is finally presented to the working group? No vote, no say in the outcome.

Is the analysis accurate? Given that WJ wouldn’t exist today without the analysis that I did way back when, and that the WJ analysis went on to be the basis of the analysis of what became JetBlue and a couple of other airlines now flying today, I wouldn’t ignore it.

A business case WJ is no longer using. Why is that? Why did they move the company so far away from it's original and successful model that they feel the need to reboot the whole thing by starting a new carrier? I honestly don't know but it sounds like the sort of thing you might understand. I was very attracted to the model of management and compensation at WJ. One where all parties were tied to the success or lack thereof, where everyone was on the same team and were rewarded with the successes of the company. But that's not the way it works anymore. Why change something that worked to something that they feel doesn't work? Those choices were made at the top by the executive and not by the pilots or a union that was not on property at the time.

If you saw the Cdn specific ULCC analysis, I think the posturing would end pretty quickly and a deal that everyone could live with would get done.

That's part of the problem, the pilots haven't seen the analysis. The company has not talked to the pilots about anything. The pilots found out about Swoop when it was announced in the press... same way everything else the pilots have heard about Swoop and several other initiatives. The executive stopped talking to the pilots long before the union drive. I would posit that the union is a reaction the executive cutting the pilots out of the process and people feeling like they need some form of protection that they never felt the need for previously. It is nice that they are talking to you and giving you data to look at, perhaps they should try that with the pilots.

I don't want to see someone flying the same equipment I am flying, on many of the same routes, and being paid approximately 35% less than me to do the same job. That person will be making less than a current 703/704 pilot, less than a current FO at WJ, should that come to pass.... to be captain on an airliner. That is a danger to my compensation. That is a danger to the compensation of every pilot regardless of where they work.

I have never seen an executive undercutting market wages by 35% to captain a business.

The pilot shortage that has existed around the world for the last 20+ years has finally arrived in Canada and the landscape isn't what it used to be in terms of labour. I know the executives of Canadian aviation have had it really good for 30+ years and they are having a really difficult time adjusting the new reality of market forces but, I question where all these potential high skilled/low wage employees are to be found.

[Mr. North]

I question where all these potential high skilled/low wage employees are to be found.

Good question. There are not enough pilots graduating from colleges to fill the hiring requirements for 2018, nevermind the years beyond. I don't think WJ management realizes the importance of getting this right the first time. The flow to AC is about to be ramped up starting next month and those who leave aren't coming back. WJ should be doing everything it can to keep pilots from leaving, the idea that they can afford to train and replace is not going to be viable for much longer.

[pacman007]

Does anyone honestly think this Blacklist will work? I hope it does! Management will take a wait and see approach. If they get the resumes at swoop then they won't care one bit! Remember pilot hours and experience don't mean anything anymore to management!

[BE20 Driver]

Good question. There are not enough pilots graduating from colleges to fill the hiring requirements for 2018, nevermind the years beyond. I don't think WJ management realizes the importance of getting this right the first time. The flow to AC is about to be ramped up starting next month and those who leave aren't coming back. WJ should be doing everything it can to keep pilots from leaving, the idea that they can afford to train and replace is not going to be viable for much longer.

Swoop is launching with only 2 airplanes. That's 20 captains. I would bet that there are 20 people out there working at Flair, WestWind (ATR captains), Georgian RJ Captains, etc that would have enough time to qualify as a captain. They'll add aircraft much slower than Encore ever did and are only growing to 10 tails (per the current plan). Hell, I'd bet Georgian alone could probably supply all of the crews required and no matter what pay scale we launch with, it'll probably be a raise for them. There are likely 100 people across Canada that want some 737 PIC time so that they can go to China.

Unfortunately, I don't see this hiring ban working like we want but I can't come up with a better solution that would encourage higher wages at Swoop.