#37 wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 28, 2018 9:22 am
Realitychex wrote: ↑
Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:48 am
You are in la la land if you don't think there's an opportunity for a ULCC in Canada.
Is it as big an opportunity as the opportunity WJ had to exploit a void in 1996? Probably not. But it's there and WJ needs to absolutely dominate and control it in order to protect the larger franchise. Take a quick look at what jetsgo did to WJ over an 18 month window and thank your lucky stars it was run by Mike the White and not someone who knew what they were doing.
Remember what happened to Canadian when they wouldn't / couldn't protect their back door from 1996 to late 1999?
Be very thankful none of the current crop of ULCC wannabees that have been floating around the market for 5 years have gotten their poop in a group. If a WJ 2.0 started tomorrow, led by some bright, energetic guys, like WJ 1.0 22 years ago, WJ pilots would have a hell of a lot more things to worry about than figuring out how to give WJ the flexibility to operate a dozen tails to be able to protect pilots, (and others) long term career prospects by operating Swoop, with legitimate, no BS, low costs.
WJ ALPA leader need to ensure that they selfishly protect WJ ALPA pilots first, and THEN ALPA pilots second. ALPA could give a tinkers cuss what happens to WJ pilots in the long run as WJ pilots represent a miniscule % of their overall membership.
ALPA would like to see every ULCC / new entrant disappear to ensure status quo amongst their largest pilot groups. It's never going to happen. Stubbornly posturing as if it will is the height of arrogance. And to believe that someone out there won't come up with a business plan and the right people to do it correctly is complete foolishness. AC, CP, C3, Royal others thought the same thing in 1996. All declared bankruptcy and 3/4 failed.
More than most, pilots should be more than familiar with the term "stay ahead of the power curve".
I guess I'm in lala land.
Rather than an opportunity for a ULCC in Canada your post seems to indicate that it isn't possible.
Other potential entrants "can't get their poop in a group".
You then refer to a vague threat of WJA 2.0 "with bright energetic guys like WJ 1.0" but fail to recognize that WJ 1.0 purposefully moved away from Low cost in order to make cold hard cash and grow.
I'm going to add, Flair appears to be rapidly moving away from it's approach to ULCC.
If we move on from your shakey analysis, you make some dramatic assumptions with regards to the WestJet pilot group and ALPA that have no foundation.
Given that the original announcement of SWOOP contained reference to WestJet pilots approval, and frozen Working conditions outlining where the pilots for SWOOP must come from, and the fact that both of these items have been ignored. Add a flexible outline (is it ten, or 40 aircraft?) Throw in a dose of awareness that the model to be followed is Jetstar, and you don't have to be a genius to figure out that the average WestJet pilot is not going to see the external "can't get their poop in a group" as a threat, but rather see a looming internal threat.
You can fantasize about potential external threats all you want, they are still just fantasy. You can't ignore the perception of an internal threat, no matter what side of the labour fence you fall on.
So, I'm in LA la Land. Throw me a bone.
I'm the guy that conjured up the business plan for WJ 1.0, a pretty darn successful new entrant that completely steamrolled everyone else in the marketplace over it's first 7-8 years in the game and has done pretty well ever since. That exact business model was used by Neeleman in the launch of jetBlue and a couple others.
I'm already sitting on the model that lays out EXACTLY how to do it all over again. If it weren't for my historical allegiance to WJ, (which to some might be a surprise), not to mention my continued equity stake in the venture, I'd have already shopped the plan around amongst people I know in the industry who would be more than capable of executing the plan. Having done it before, raising capital, esp with raised foreign ownership limits, would be a piece of cake.
Trust me. There's an opportunity there. It maybe not as large as the opportunity in 1996, but it's there. You should be very, very thankful no one else has figured it out and / or been able to pull together a strong management team to do it, but I guarantee someone will at some point.
I would strongly urge you to get a deal done that allows WJ to completely dominate and control the back door for a long, long time, and pretty much regardless of what fuel does in the future.
Be selfish and protect WJ ALPA pilot jobs first, not guys you don't know who are working at airlines that would like nothing more than to flush WJ and your career down the toilet as soon as possible.
You need Swoop to protect your future. To give credit where credit is due, the macro plan they've come up with is light years ahead of anything else I've seen in the domestic and even North American marketplace thus far.
This being said, I don't share your vision of pilots or anyone working for peanuts. It was never the goal in 1996 and in spite of all the rhetoric, it still isn't today.