Swoop Cannibalization of WestJet Routes

[Rezy]

So the WestJet management has been saying that Swoop will not impact growth at WestJet or WestJet Encore. Well with the Swoop routes announced, and WestJet/Encore summer routes announced, we can now prove direct cannibalization of WestJet routes. Starting this summer the following direct flights are no longer available from WestJet.
YHM-YWG 4x weekly
YHM-YHZ 3x weekly
YHM-YEG 7x weekly
YXX-YEG 21x weekly (summer schedule)

Nearly all of these cancelled flights from WestJets network stop flying the day before Swoops scheduled service. Definitely a co-ordinated event by WestJet management.
So total thats 35 weekly flights that will directly be cannibalized by Swoop this summer. With Swoops growth to 10 aircraft planned for next spring, and the possibility of 20-30 additional tails going to Swoop, it certainly appears this “purpose built” airlines true purpose is to replace WestJet flying with cheap labor to increase the bottom line.

[tbaylx]

Since mainline aircraft total is remaining the same then I would assume that the aircraft will be redeployed on other routes as needed. The sky isn't falling quite yet

[DropTanks]

How exactly is the mainline fleet remaining the same? There’s quite a few possible lease returns every year for the foreseeable future. The truth is Swoop will do exactly what we predict and stagnate WJ growth while promoting Swoop growth. Some F/O’s here see their upgrades going from 10-15yrs to NEVER. Yes the sky is indeed falling which is exactly why the pilot group is taking this so seriously.

[Chuck Finley]

How about this...

WJ pilots: " Hey management, either Swoop flying is done by WJ pilots at WJ pay or every flight is delayed by 5 min increments every day until it is."

[tbaylx]

The lease returns are being replaced with Max's are they not? If so then there is no reduction in total number of tails at WestJet, there will actually be an increase if you take the 787's into account.

[DropTanks]

The lease returns are being replaced with Max's are they not? If so then there is no reduction in total number of tails at WestJet, there will actually be an increase if you take the 787's into account.

Lol. That’s funny. The fleet plan is available to the public in the yearly MD&A. If you read it you’d see that the fleet size can vary greatly depending on how many leases get returned each year. Furthermore any growth of the fleet could simply be pushed off to Swoop. For an F/O with 500+ guys ahead of him/her for upgrade it’s gonna take a lot more than 10 787’s to make a dent. Don’t downplay the negative impact of Swoop on the career of hundreds of people that tied their horses to the WJ wagon.

[tbaylx]

You're assuming that growth would exist without Swoop. They were looking at the same stagnation before swoop was announced. That shouldn't be a surprise to the junior F/O's. The fact that there is potential for growth in the ULCC market is due to swoop being created.

[DropTanks]

You're assuming that growth would exist without Swoop. They were looking at the same stagnation before swoop was announced. That shouldn't be a surprise to the junior F/O's. The fact that there is potential for growth in the ULCC market is due to swoop being created.

Growth was basically assured based on the fleet plan. Even the most pessimistic view of returning every lease would still assure a certain amount of growth at WJ. That was up until the Swoop announcement of hiring off the street and circumventing us. Now that growth could simply be redirected to Swoop ie: 30-50 tails as stated.
Why is this so hard for you to understand?

[Fanblade]

So the WestJet management has been saying that Swoop will not impact growth at WestJet or WestJet Encore. Well with the Swoop routes announced, and WestJet/Encore summer routes announced, we can now prove direct cannibalization of WestJet routes. Starting this summer the following direct flights are no longer available from WestJet.
YHM-YWG 4x weekly
YHM-YHZ 3x weekly
YHM-YEG 7x weekly
YXX-YEG 21x weekly (summer schedule)

Nearly all of these cancelled flights from WestJets network stop flying the day before Swoops scheduled service. Definitely a co-ordinated event by WestJet management.
So total thats 35 weekly flights that will directly be cannibalized by Swoop this summer. With Swoops growth to 10 aircraft planned for next spring, and the possibility of 20-30 additional tails going to Swoop, it certainly appears this “purpose built” airlines true purpose is to replace WestJet flying with cheap labor to increase the bottom line.

Roughly 400, formally monthly WJ block hours, transfered to Swoop. 5 CA and 5 FO positions no longer required as a result. When AC started transferring 319’s from mainline to Rouge very few reductions took place. Instead monthly block hours for 320 pilots at mainline were reduced significantly. Some blocks as low as the low 60’s or about a 20-25% pay cut. Rouge pilots were making more than mainline until the surplus of 320 Pilots disappeared after the arrival of the 787. Some very lean pay Stubs for over a year.

Do you guys have a minimum guaranteed monthly block hour or pay limit?

[tbaylx]

You're assuming that growth would exist without Swoop. They were looking at the same stagnation before swoop was announced. That shouldn't be a surprise to the junior F/O's. The fact that there is potential for growth in the ULCC market is due to swoop being created.

Growth was basically assured based on the fleet plan. Even the most pessimistic view of returning every lease would still assure a certain amount of growth at WJ. That was up until the Swoop announcement of hiring off the street and circumventing us. Now that growth could simply be redirected to Swoop ie: 30-50 tails as stated.
Why is this so hard for you to understand?

It's not hard to understand IF that's what actually happens. What I'm saying is if Swoop ends up with 10 tails max and creates new flying then the net effect at mainline is minimal. It's not in Westjets interest to cannablize mainline pax and send them to swoop for less revenue is it?
You're assuming Swoop is going to grow to 50 aircraft and cannabilize mainline flying, i'm not convinced that's the case that's all.

[aerobod]

The WestJet summer schedule after Swoop starts flying increases to an average of 765 daily departures (summer 2017 was around 700), here are the details of where increased flying is happening: https://www.skiesmag.com/press-releases ... n-markets/. There have already been renewals on multiple lease returns, so mainline will grow along with Swoop due to the MAX 8s to be received this year. YYZ, YYC, YVR and YEG are increasingly focus cities, so some point to point flying not involving hubs will naturally change to hub flying.

[Transonic]

.....YYZ, YYC, YVR and YEG are increasingly focus cities, so some point to point flying not involving hubs will naturally change to hub flying.

And naturally other point to point flying will change to Swoop. This is fear. Our leader initially said the market was no larger than 10 aircraft, then 30 now 40. He has also said to look no further than Qantas/Jetstar as a successful model. He even mentioned that Swoop could fly YYC-YYZ akin to Qantas/Jetstar on SYD-MEL.

A quick search reveals on SYD-MEL,

Qantas - 243 weekly flights
Jetstar - 129 weekly flights

(I manually counted so the error is +/- 1 or 2)

Even on a hub to hub trunk route, Jetstar has a 34% share. Fleet wise, Jetstar has 61 A320s and Qantas has 68 737s. So yes, this strategy involves more than 10 airplanes.....

[aerobod]

In Canada there is a strong limiter on where ULCCs can be successful, the very high cost of operating out of the largest airports (YYZ, YVR, YUL, YYC) and the lack of close alternative airports, making ULCC ticket pricing not viable. The ticket price for YvR-YYZ has to be approximately $70 higher than YXX-YHM to account for higher landing fees and AIFs, taking the current base price from $189 to $259. Calgary does not have a natural alternative (YQF being the closest). A ULCC has to have a simple point-to-point model utilising low cost airports to have low operating costs and consequently cheap fares, this is not compatible with YYC, YYZ & YVR that need to be used to build flow to sell the higher priced flights on WestJet. Swoop also is using a different reservation system that is stripped down and not compatible with code sharing, so interchange or integration with the WestJet codeshare-orientated (and higher cost) system is very difficult. Basically different airline operations with Swoop aimed at capturing the current near-border, car and Greyhound travellers that will not pay WestJet prices and will avoid high cost airports to get the cheapest flights, vs the current WestJet travellers who are willing to pay higher prices to fly on a convenient schedule from a convenient airport.

[tailgunner]

Aerobod,
What you say has merit, but the reality is that Swoop will not have domestic flying as its focus. It will do enough of it to stifle the Flair et.al. The major focus of Swoop, as proclaimed by GS, will eventually be transborder and Holiday flying. This will be their growth routes. This will also cause maximum damage to the existing WJ pilots lives. Productive routes will be Swooped leaving the rest for WJ....
Cheers

[tailgunner]

duplicate

[aerobod]

Aerobod,
What you say has merit, but the reality is that Swoop will not have domestic flying as its focus. It will do enough of it to stifle the Flair et.al. The major focus of Swoop, as proclaimed by GS, will eventually be transborder and Holiday flying. This will be their growth routes. This will also cause maximum damage to the existing WJ pilots lives. Productive routes will be Swooped leaving the rest for WJ....
Cheers

The north-south flying is mainly winter orientated, east-west is more summer orientated, so the two types of routes can't be separated from a fleet perspective unless the operating fleet changes in size with season (as done by Sunwing, Transat and to some degree Air Canada where there utilisation varies a lot with season). WestJet has always been the most successful airline with "follow the sun" route changes, requiring the north-south / east-west shift to keep the utilisation even (and consequent margins) throughout the year, I don't see this successful strategy changing.

As swapping aircraft between the fleets season to season is not viable, both operations have to run a balanced set of routes, matching sun flying with domestic flying, Both airlines are in a growth position, not a cannibalisation if both are going to be successful in meeting the needs of the market segments they are competing in. I would be more worried about Swoop for the Sunwing or Transat pilots, where ULCC pricing and point-to-point flying is more predominant than in the WestJet offerings,

[groundpilot]

It’s madness to think that Swoop will be at all beneficial to a WJ pilot.

No scope protection =big problem

[tbaylx]

It's likely not going to be beneficial to a WJ pilot, other than the possibility of larger profit share and stock performance if they're successful.

However, I doubt it's going to be as harmful to the average WJ pilot as some are making it seem. Guess you'll just have to wait and see how it plays out and hope that cooler heads prevail on the negotiating front.

[pacman007]

Westjet will grow swoop to what ever the Canadian market will allow for the ULCC. I firmly believe that are not building swoop to take jobs away from the mainline... look at Nowegian airlines a ULCC that flies 787 and the max, they can't make money. Swoop is there to fend off others from entering the market. Westjet will continue to grow to feed the 787, there is way more money in it for everyone if Westjet gets 40 widebodies rather than 40 planes at swoop!

[Rezy]

Westjet will grow swoop to what ever the Canadian market will allow for the ULCC. I firmly believe that are not building swoop to take jobs away from the mainline...

Did you not read the initial post? Swoop already intends to take jobs from WJ Pilots. I don’t see why that is so hard for people to understand. Just because there haven’t been layoffs (yet?) doesn’t mean that Swoop will not take WJ growth (which I proved it is) and that growth translates to jobs.