Vote results.

Discuss topics relating to Westjet.

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Mach1
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Mach1 » Fri May 11, 2018 7:44 pm

WeedPro2000 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 3:18 pm
That said, I think the chance of CB bending to ALPA are somewhere between 0% and 0.000001%. So, what is left is a strike or lockout (my money is on a lockout), that will be followed, at some point, by a legislated return to work. Next, a CBA that pleases no one will be forced upon the two parties but will give ALPA and WJ the opportunity to establish a relationship, and try to negotiate a CBA.
I can't see it happening. That's a little like committing financial suicide. 10's of millions a day in lost revenue might not go over well with the large institutional investors who now own much more of the company than CB does. This reminds me of the cold war... both sides now have their fingers on the buttons of mutual destruction and both are playing a very high stake game complete with propaganda.

Time will tell.
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Rowdy
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Rowdy » Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 pm

WeedPro2000 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 3:18 pm
I'm a little surprised at the high vote result, but not completely so. It is, as many have stated here, important to show unity of resolve to strike when going in to negotiate with the company. It shows you're serious.

That said, I think the chance of CB bending to ALPA are somewhere between 0% and 0.000001%. So, what is left is a strike or lockout (my money is on a lockout), that will be followed, at some point, by a legislated return to work. Next, a CBA that pleases no one will be forced upon the two parties but will give ALPA and WJ the opportunity to establish a relationship, and try to negotiate a CBA.

Additionally, there is no chance that the company will succumb to a strike mandate and give in to ALPA's demands. To do so would result in CUPE certifying the FAs overnight and giving their own strike mandate next year.

Let me get of your way while you guys and gals rush off to war.

ta ta

John
You're out to lunch my friend.

CB is not foolish enough to lock out his worker bees. He's also not stupid enough to lose the piles of cash flow a strike would bring, nor tarnish WJ's image with the public. I'll certainly take your money though.

Legislated back to work? hahahahah you're kidding right? The feds do not giving one flying Fark about some little airline based out West. The Libs in Ottawa can barely find Calgary on a map.. If your HQ was in Montreal it might be a different story with a conservative government in power.

The FA's will certify regardless of what happens with the pilot group. I'm actually surprised it hasn't happened after all of the recent shenanigans.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by BE02 Driver » Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm

Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
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Re: Vote results.

Post by DropTanks » Fri May 11, 2018 8:34 pm

BE02 Driver wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
You know what? That’s a good question. Maybe forward it to all of the stock analysts to chew on . They have a direct line to upper management and would have their concerns addressed right away. Should be fun, I’ll make popcorn.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Maurice » Fri May 11, 2018 8:38 pm

BE02 Driver wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
Just a guess, but the last 5 years were pretty much the most profitable in the history of airlines, particularly 2015 with the drop in oil prices. The next 5 years will not be so lucrative. Starting with this year, now magnified with this mess.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by tbaylx » Sat May 12, 2018 2:33 am

BE02 Driver wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
You can't see why wiping out 85% of a company's profits to placate one single employee group is a problem?
Dividend cuts, stock price drop, inability to raise financing for future growth and expansion are a few that jump out immediately.

If 85% is accurate someone should have asked ALPA to do a cost analysis before coming up with a proposal and setting up unrealistic expectations within the pilot group. There's the MEC's next challenge, selling the eventual contract to a group that they've riled up.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by altiplano » Sat May 12, 2018 4:56 am

You don't think ALPA has analyzed and costed all of the numbers?

They have an extremely sophisticated group of experts that does only this, and have done it at far larger and more sophisticated operations. This isn't their first rodeo. They know exactly the landscape.

The 85% number on the corporate propoganda line, and the statement about having to cease operations is obviously bullshit. Industry standard wawcon for 1/10th of the employee group, your most committed employees at that, is not going to shut it down after how many years and hundreds of millions of profit... They are solely trying to make the group uncertain, trying to shake resolve, trying to set in minds that a fair contract is unachievable.

Westjet corporate has obviously decided to go kicking and screaming all the way to this contract, they are just dragging it out, trying to break/test the resolve.

There is no way the Liberals legislate back to work.
1. They aren't the anti-labour Conservatives
2. It's an illegal violation of charter rights
3. Unlike ACPA, ALPA has the resources and the will to challenge it
4. The government doesn't like losing in Supreme Court
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Transonic » Sat May 12, 2018 6:13 am

tbaylx wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:33 am
BE02 Driver wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
You can't see why wiping out 85% of a company's profits to placate one single employee group is a problem?
Dividend cuts, stock price drop, inability to raise financing for future growth and expansion are a few that jump out immediately.

If 85% is accurate someone should have asked ALPA to do a cost analysis before coming up with a proposal and setting up unrealistic expectations within the pilot group. There's the MEC's next challenge, selling the eventual contract to a group that they've riled up.

WJPilotfacts.com has agenda to control the message, which it does poorly. It's full of half truths. I don't doubt ALPA proposed the above, much like the company proposing concessions and 19 days worked. However it's all a part of aggressive positioning during negotiations, which both sides have done. In reality ALPA's targeted CBA will not break the company.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by YYZSaabGuy » Sat May 12, 2018 7:18 am

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com: "Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

Putting some numbers to this:

Net earnings F2013-17 inclusive (per WestJet 2017 annual report): $1,499,245,000
85% thereof: $1,274,358,250
Annual equivalent over a forward five-year term: $254,871,650
# WestJet pilots (per ALPA): 1,526
Annual forward cost impact per WestJet pilot: $167,019

So from an outsider's perspective: how realistic is it that the MEC's current proposal could have an incremental cost impact (hourly rate increase, scheduling adjustments, duty hour changes, work rules, etc.), of $167,019 per current WestJet pilot for each year over the next five years? If the figure reflects "all WestJet flying to be done by WestJet pilots", and assumes all Encore and Swoop pilots are compensated per Mainline, the number of pilots goes to - what, 1700? - and the per pilot impact goes to $150,000 per annum. How far off the mark? (Note: edited to correct the annual forward cost impact/pilot to $167,019).
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Last edited by YYZSaabGuy on Sat May 12, 2018 7:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

CAL
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Re: Vote results.

Post by CAL » Sat May 12, 2018 7:25 am

The industry is forever broken in Canada......good luck
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Re: Vote results.

Post by BE02 Driver » Sat May 12, 2018 8:44 am

Transonic wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 6:13 am
tbaylx wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:33 am
BE02 Driver wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
You can't see why wiping out 85% of a company's profits to placate one single employee group is a problem?
Dividend cuts, stock price drop, inability to raise financing for future growth and expansion are a few that jump out immediately.

If 85% is accurate someone should have asked ALPA to do a cost analysis before coming up with a proposal and setting up unrealistic expectations within the pilot group. There's the MEC's next challenge, selling the eventual contract to a group that they've riled up.

WJPilotfacts.com has agenda to control the message, which it does poorly. It's full of half truths. I don't doubt ALPA proposed the above, much like the company proposing concessions and 19 days worked. However it's all a part of aggressive positioning during negotiations, which both sides have done. In reality ALPA's targeted CBA will not break the company.
I suspect you are right, stupidity countering stupidity. Hopefully both sides get down to business in the coming days and hammer out a reasonable deal that deals with Swoop, and gives the pilot the respect they deserve, and the company some breathing room for meaningful growth. Realistically everyone can benefit here if this is done properly....except for maybe the current Swoop pilots.....
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Re: Vote results.

Post by atphat » Sat May 12, 2018 8:48 am

I’m sure the current Swoop pilots will be happy to sit right seat at Encore at the bottom of the list. If not, oh well.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by TheStig » Sat May 12, 2018 8:50 am

Transonic wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 6:13 am

WJPilotfacts.com has agenda to control the message, which it does poorly. It's full of half truths. I don't doubt ALPA proposed the above, much like the company proposing concessions and 19 days worked. However it's all a part of aggressive positioning during negotiations, which both sides have done. In reality ALPA's targeted CBA will not break the company.
I agree, I wouldn't bother to over analyze either sides 'facts', all these public comments do is tell us that no starting point has been established and actual negotiations haven't taken place.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Flyingsquirrelsuck » Sat May 12, 2018 9:47 am

tbaylx wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:33 am
BE02 Driver wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
You can't see why wiping out 85% of a company's profits to placate one single employee group is a problem?
Dividend cuts, stock price drop, inability to raise financing for future growth and expansion are a few that jump out immediately.

If 85% is accurate someone should have asked ALPA to do a cost analysis before coming up with a proposal and setting up unrealistic expectations within the pilot group. There's the MEC's next challenge, selling the eventual contract to a group that they've riled up.
Your buying into the lies. If you really researched the numbers there is no way the pilots would cost an increase of 85%! What do we cost the company now? It’s between 2-3% of yearly costs.

In saying that, the math doesn’t add up. I get it, your not an ALPA supporter, but it’s your responsibility to find out the truth. Call CAM, ask him about his math. It’s lies to divide the group. Simple
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Flyingsquirrelsuck » Sat May 12, 2018 9:49 am

tbaylx wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:33 am
BE02 Driver wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:06 pm
Legitimate question...

Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com:

"Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

So unless I'm not understanding something here, WJ is claiming that if they were reduced to 15% of current profits over the next 5 years they would have to cease operations?

Why would a profitable company have to cease operations?
You can't see why wiping out 85% of a company's profits to placate one single employee group is a problem?
Dividend cuts, stock price drop, inability to raise financing for future growth and expansion are a few that jump out immediately.

If 85% is accurate someone should have asked ALPA to do a cost analysis before coming up with a proposal and setting up unrealistic expectations within the pilot group. There's the MEC's next challenge, selling the eventual contract to a group that they've riled up.
I for got ask. Please provide me an example of a pilot contract that has bankrupted an airplane.
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Flyingsquirrelsuck
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Flyingsquirrelsuck » Sat May 12, 2018 9:55 am

YYZSaabGuy wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 7:18 am
Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com: "Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

Putting some numbers to this:

Net earnings F2013-17 inclusive (per WestJet 2017 annual report): $1,499,245,000
85% thereof: $1,274,358,250
Annual equivalent over a forward five-year term: $254,871,650
# WestJet pilots (per ALPA): 1,526
Annual forward cost impact per WestJet pilot: $167,019

So from an outsider's perspective: how realistic is it that the MEC's current proposal could have an incremental cost impact (hourly rate increase, scheduling adjustments, duty hour changes, work rules, etc.), of $167,019 per current WestJet pilot for each year over the next five years? If the figure reflects "all WestJet flying to be done by WestJet pilots", and assumes all Encore and Swoop pilots are compensated per Mainline, the number of pilots goes to - what, 1700? - and the per pilot impact goes to $150,000 per annum. How far off the mark? (Note: edited to correct the annual forward cost impact/pilot to $167,019).
So if the WJ pilots are asking for industry standard, how do other airlines exist?

85% is a fake number from Cam Kenyon. Nickname Camshaft. Ask any pilot at Frontier Airlines. He’s a trained manipulating lawyer, working for purely the companies gain
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Mach1 » Sat May 12, 2018 12:04 pm

YYZSaabGuy wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 7:18 am
Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com: "Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

Putting some numbers to this:

Net earnings F2013-17 inclusive (per WestJet 2017 annual report): $1,499,245,000
85% thereof: $1,274,358,250
Annual equivalent over a forward five-year term: $254,871,650
# WestJet pilots (per ALPA): 1,526
Annual forward cost impact per WestJet pilot: $167,019

So from an outsider's perspective: how realistic is it that the MEC's current proposal could have an incremental cost impact (hourly rate increase, scheduling adjustments, duty hour changes, work rules, etc.), of $167,019 per current WestJet pilot for each year over the next five years? If the figure reflects "all WestJet flying to be done by WestJet pilots", and assumes all Encore and Swoop pilots are compensated per Mainline, the number of pilots goes to - what, 1700? - and the per pilot impact goes to $150,000 per annum. How far off the mark? (Note: edited to correct the annual forward cost impact/pilot to $167,019).
It is a rare and lovely day when math makes me laugh. And that rare day is today... Thank you.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by JohnnyHotRocks » Sat May 12, 2018 6:42 pm

CAL wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 7:25 am
The industry is forever broken in Canada......good luck
That is the truth!
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Fanblade » Sun May 13, 2018 12:46 am

Mach1 wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 12:04 pm
YYZSaabGuy wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 7:18 am
Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com: "Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

Putting some numbers to this:

Net earnings F2013-17 inclusive (per WestJet 2017 annual report): $1,499,245,000
85% thereof: $1,274,358,250
Annual equivalent over a forward five-year term: $254,871,650
# WestJet pilots (per ALPA): 1,526
Annual forward cost impact per WestJet pilot: $167,019

So from an outsider's perspective: how realistic is it that the MEC's current proposal could have an incremental cost impact (hourly rate increase, scheduling adjustments, duty hour changes, work rules, etc.), of $167,019 per current WestJet pilot for each year over the next five years? If the figure reflects "all WestJet flying to be done by WestJet pilots", and assumes all Encore and Swoop pilots are compensated per Mainline, the number of pilots goes to - what, 1700? - and the per pilot impact goes to $150,000 per annum. How far off the mark? (Note: edited to correct the annual forward cost impact/pilot to $167,019).
It is a rare and lovely day when math makes me laugh. And that rare day is today... Thank you.
Did WJ really make that claim? Tell me it isn’t so.

When peddling BS you never make it that obvious. When someone digs into the claim, at a minimum, a plausibly contorted rationalized explanation is required. It’s almost an art at AC.

The WJ Claim looks like amature hour.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by BE02 Driver » Sun May 13, 2018 4:52 am

Fanblade wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:46 am
Mach1 wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 12:04 pm
YYZSaabGuy wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 7:18 am
Quote as posted on wjpilotfacts.com: "Over a five-year term, the increase in costs to the Company of the MEC’s current proposal represents approximately 85 per cent of WestJet’s total net earnings over the last five years. It would largely wipe all profits going forward and make WestJet unable to continue operations."

Putting some numbers to this:

Net earnings F2013-17 inclusive (per WestJet 2017 annual report): $1,499,245,000
85% thereof: $1,274,358,250
Annual equivalent over a forward five-year term: $254,871,650
# WestJet pilots (per ALPA): 1,526
Annual forward cost impact per WestJet pilot: $167,019

So from an outsider's perspective: how realistic is it that the MEC's current proposal could have an incremental cost impact (hourly rate increase, scheduling adjustments, duty hour changes, work rules, etc.), of $167,019 per current WestJet pilot for each year over the next five years? If the figure reflects "all WestJet flying to be done by WestJet pilots", and assumes all Encore and Swoop pilots are compensated per Mainline, the number of pilots goes to - what, 1700? - and the per pilot impact goes to $150,000 per annum. How far off the mark? (Note: edited to correct the annual forward cost impact/pilot to $167,019).
It is a rare and lovely day when math makes me laugh. And that rare day is today... Thank you.
Did WJ really make that claim? Tell me it isn’t so.

When peddling BS you never make it that obvious. When someone digs into the claim, at a minimum, a plausibly contorted rationalized explanation is required. It’s almost an art at AC.

The WJ Claim looks like amature hour.
Yes sir, they did. For public viewing on WJPILOTFACTS.COM.

http://www.wjpilotfacts.com/update-may-11-2018/

It also says there in the FAQ that they don't believe in bargaining in public, the very first FAQ. Then they go on to bargain in public with this post.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Piston-Broke » Sun May 13, 2018 5:50 am

“We won’t negotiate in public but we will publish all our internal memos, and biased communication to our pilots, via a website for all the public to see” 😉
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Re: Vote results.

Post by lostaviator » Sun May 13, 2018 6:12 am

It's time for someone else to retire.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by Piston-Broke » Sun May 13, 2018 6:19 am

in·teg·ri·ty
inˈteɡrədē/Submit
noun
1.
the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles; moral uprightness.
"he is known to be a man of integrity"
synonyms: honesty, probity, rectitude, honor, good character, principle(s), ethics, morals, righteousness, morality, virtue, decency, fairness, scrupulousness, sincerity, truthfulness, trustworthiness
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Re: Vote results.

Post by YYZSaabGuy » Sun May 13, 2018 9:11 am

Fanblade wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:46 am

When peddling BS you never make it that obvious. When someone digs into the claim, at a minimum, a plausibly contorted rationalized explanation is required. It’s almost an art at AC.

The WJ Claim looks like amature hour.
Agreed, the number on its face looks one-sided. Then again, WestJet management will be aware that they are subject to strict regulatory requirements regarding timely disclosure (for example, on a company-owned but publicly accessible website) of material information, which the above arguably is. I'm very confident that somebody, likely in WestJet's corporate finance group, will have developed a model analyzing the cost of the ALPA proposals and supporting a build-up to the $1.274Bn 5-year impact quoted above.

Whether the assumptions underlying that analysis are appropriate is of course debatable, but there will at a minimum be something resembling a defensible rationale in place.
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Re: Vote results.

Post by yyc757 » Sun May 13, 2018 10:24 am

Things that don't add up:

Saying our pilot costs will take away most of our profit.

AC's pilot costs are higher than WJ and yet they are profitable. (And could have investment grade corporate rating soon)

Here's another one: "he with the lowest costs wins".

And yet AC is applying tactics to have lower costs on certain markets. (Say 777HD versus 737-800 YVR-YYZ for example )

It almost seems like we've been enabling management by providing lower costs when in fact they should have had to work harder to lower costs and improve margins by running an airline efficiently.
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