ONEX plans

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johnkruk
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by johnkruk »

How long will ONEX give Boeing to get the MAX in the air before they make the switch to NEO ?? I’m sure AC is kicking themselves for going With Boeing !!!
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kiaszceski
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by kiaszceski »

It’s really how much they would lose by waiting for the MAX vs how much it would cost to shift to airbus maintenance , Airbus trained pilot...
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goingnowherefast
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by goingnowherefast »

I predict some very very cheap new 787s and/or max orders in WJs future.
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fish4life
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by fish4life »

Everyone seems to think that companies can just “switch” to the neos... its not like buying a car where airbus has 1000 neos sitting on the lot in case someone wants to buy a few
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lownslow
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by lownslow »

fish4life wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:09 pm its not like buying a car where airbus has 1000 neos sitting on the lot in case someone wants to buy a few
Boeing, on the other hand...
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KAG
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by KAG »

I like making wagers, I'm usually wrong but it doesnt stop me :smt040
Anyway, Onex takes over anyday now, 3-6 months of feeling things out, then a managment cleaning. Meanwhile delta JV gets US approval, Delta personal appointed to BOD and upper WJ management within 6 months. Eventually onex sells 49% equity stake to Delta.
Ramp up of wide body ASAP.
Swoop....no clue. I dont believe for a minute it's making money, but it is dissuading other ulccs from market. Again no clue there.

2019-08-03-09-14-56.jpg
2019-08-03-09-14-56.jpg (68.72 KiB) Viewed 7498 times
Encore: status quo. Hopefully fix compensation to retain crew.

As for compensation no paycut here. Yet. It's a money shuffle. 10% of the 20%esp funds is going to a pension. That leaves 10% remaining and option value - That's currently being negioated.
No one knows what the next downturn will happen or look like. I think itll be bad. Who knows what will happen to Onexs plans. Either way general feeling is of optimism.
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Sharklasers
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by Sharklasers »

The Delta Airline Pilots are a real pilot group with a 70 year history of successfully organizing and negotiating.

http://www.alpawatch.org/PDF%20C2015/Ne ... 0Scope.pdf
http://dalscope.org/

Delta pilots have strong JV scope language and a history of enforcing it. Basically it says that the growth in the flying done by a JV partner cannot come at the expense of the Delta pilots. To the westjet pilots who think a JV will allow them to eat the Deltas pilots lunch and start doing a substantial chunk of their wide body flying you are in for a big disappointment. Real contracts don’t allow that.
I suspect the JV will be no different then the half dozen current JVs or enhanced codeshares currently being done by AC or the hundreds of JVs around the world.
The Delta pilots won’t lay down and die and if you aren’t taking traffic off their network where will all the passengers that will fill your 100 widebodies come from?
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mbav8r
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by mbav8r »

KAG wrote: Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:08 am I like making wagers, I'm usually wrong but it doesnt stop me :smt040
Anyway, Onex takes over anyday now, 3-6 months of feeling things out, then a managment cleaning. Meanwhile delta JV gets US approval, Delta personal appointed to BOD and upper WJ management within 6 months. Eventually onex sells 49% equity stake to Delta.
Ramp up of wide body ASAP.
Swoop....no clue. I dont believe for a minute it's making money, but it is dissuading other ulccs from market. Again no clue there.


2019-08-03-09-14-56.jpg
Encore: status quo. Hopefully fix compensation to retain crew.

As for compensation no paycut here. Yet. It's a money shuffle. 10% of the 20%esp funds is going to a pension. That leaves 10% remaining and option value - That's currently being negioated.
No one knows what the next downturn will happen or look like. I think itll be bad. Who knows what will happen to Onexs plans. Either way general feeling is of optimism.
Delta cannot take a 49% stake, ownership rule prevent that.

“While the definition of “Canadian” in the Canada Transportation Act still requires that a corporation or entity be controlled in fact by Canadians (a.k.a. de facto control), the long-standing requirement that at least 75% of the voting interests be owned and controlled by Canadians (a.k.a. de jure control) is reduced to 51% where:

(a) no more than 25% of the voting interest are owned directly or indirectly by any single non-Canadian, and
(b) no more than 25% of the voting interests are owned by one or more non-Canadians authorized to provide an air service in any jurisdiction.”
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KAG
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by KAG »

Shark, I dont think we'll be doing much wide body delta flying but maybe some lower yield transborder flying, and get some left overs. Some more flying, a equity stake and leadership is what I'm hopeful for.
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plhought
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by plhought »

Everyone keeps praising this Delta "Joint-Venture" as some sort of magic that's going to change everything and bring in big bucks.

Someone needs to break it down for me and explain what's the difference between this joint venture and a codeshare.

To me it sounds just like any other airline "alliance" ala Star Alliance or One World. Just a bunch of marketing/baggage/codeshare/interline/lounge agreements. Big woop.

Like has Delta bought a chunk of WJ or what?

I can't see Delta dumping it's transborder mainline flying to WJ in any great volume. I don't think it's pilots would be to happy about that. Maybe some of the transborder stuff flown by it's regional partners perhaps. But would WJ really be enthused about flying routes that usually only fill 50-70 seats?
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Cargo Fire
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by Cargo Fire »

[/quote]
ALPA is engaged. There is good opportunity for improvement and nurturing relationships.
[/quote]

Great; if the Geniuses at ALPA are involved in determining our financial well being we are all F***ed. At least these "negotiations" will be another opportunity for them to all get together and drink and eat our dues away.
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altiplano
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by altiplano »

KAG has it right. If anyone thinks they'll be eating Delta's pilots' lunch I think they'll be disappointed.

I'd guess you'll feed them at MSP/DTW/SEA... pick up a bit of feed into YYZ/YYC, but they have most of the international routes established already. :roll:
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fish4life
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by fish4life »

Cargo Fire wrote: Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:37 pm
ALPA is engaged. There is good opportunity for improvement and nurturing relationships.
[/quote]

Great; if the Geniuses at ALPA are involved in determining our financial well being we are all F***ed. At least these "negotiations" will be another opportunity for them to all get together and drink and eat our dues away.
[/quote]

If you don’t like the direction it’s going why don’t you volunteer for one of those positions?
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DropTanks
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by DropTanks »

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plhought
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by plhought »

The way I read it is WJ shuttling the West to Minneapolis then jumping off to Europe/Asia on Delta widebodies. Kinda puts a dampener on this supposed WJ widebody growth? Also every extra dollar being made from all this expansion and Joint-Venture will now go into Onex's pocket rather than the original "owners" - the employees...

Sorry just stirring the pot :P

WJ will have 25 787s by 2030 easy. They'll be overcapacity across the whole market and I'll end up laid off and it'll just be Canadian all over again.
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by Old fella »

“WJ will have 25 787s by 2030 easy. They'll be overcapacity across the whole market and I'll end up laid off and it'll just be CANADIAN all over again.”

Then a western based PM will lean very hard on ole Air Canada to do the preverbal buyout citing massive disruption should that western entity go down the tubes. In the interim while all is being discussed a new entrant pops up called ABSK jet with 3 used B737Max. Overcapacity and a recession looming severely damages AC’s bottom line as they struggle with the “new addition “ and they will be forced to seek assistance from the Canadian taxpayer. After said dust settles the new guy ABSK jet will have a bigger fleet with eyes on expansion while complaining the taxpayer sucking eastern elite AC is on the Government tit yet again. Western alienation will go to rhetoric levels because the oil sands billions dried up as nobody wants the stuff and billions again are needed to clean up the environmental mess. The forlorn Western PM will loose the upcoming election as rest of the country got mightily pissed off , the loss will resemble a ‘93 Kim C rout and a new young female Grit PM from Ontario will be given the keys to the new house at 24 Sussex. AvCanada will still be around and a new crop of bitchers will take the reigns and there will be multitudes of threads each 40 pages long on this subject.

Only positive thing for me is I will be pushing up daisies - no doubt a good thing.

:drinkers:
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johnkruk
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by johnkruk »

fish4life wrote: Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:09 pm Everyone seems to think that companies can just “switch” to the neos... its not like buying a car where airbus has 1000 neos sitting on the lot in case someone wants to buy a few
Not switch , but maybe start a shift towards Airbus , say the MAX isn’t flying this time next year you think perhaps ONEX which owns leasing companies will start to push some Airbus Westjets way ??
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lownslow
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by lownslow »

johnkruk wrote: Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:13 pm Not switch , but maybe start a shift towards Airbus , say the MAX isn’t flying this time next year you think perhaps ONEX which owns leasing companies will start to push some Airbus Westjets way ??
Doesn’t ONEX own plants that build parts for Boeing? In any case, I would think leasing some late model (but not MAX) 737s would be cheaper than adding a new type to the fleet with the resulting training of personnel, managing another type, various added inefficiencies from doing that, and so on. For a span of a couple years just flying a slightly less fuel efficient plane may be the best route and if for some reason the MAX never flies again they’ll still likely get big discounts from Boeing to help smooth it over. So more Boeings. It’s probably a great time to get your type rating on the 737 from that kiosk at the mall, or however they do it.
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JBI
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by JBI »

lownslow wrote: Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:27 pm
Doesn’t ONEX own plants that build parts for Boeing?
Not anymore. Onex purchased Spirit AeroSystems in 2005/2006 and after a number of mergers sold it in 2014 to turn it into a publicly traded company. For what it's worth, Yahoo Finance outlines that:
The Onex Group acquired Spirit AeroSystems from The Boeing Company for approximately $950 million in June 2005, investing approximately $375 million of equity. Over the course of the nine-year investment, the Onex Group has received aggregate proceeds of approximately $3.2 billion, resulting in a multiple of capital invested of approximately 8.5 times and a return on investment of 201% per annum.
Not too bad an investment I'd say.

Onex does still have a 35% ownership in BBAM:
BBAM is the leading provider of asset origination and management services in the aircraft leasing industry. BBAM had over $27.1 billion of assets under management as of June 30, 2019.
So, how this relationship will play out is anybody's guess. However, parting out the pieces doesn't seem to be how Onex makes it's 200% ROI.
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FenceSitter
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Re: ONEX plans

Post by FenceSitter »

lostaviator wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 7:02 pm
tailgunner wrote: Wed Jul 24, 2019 6:18 pm Droptanks,
I agree that those pilots that were holding a lot of 18$ shares have a windfall at 31$. However, that may be a fleeting one time event. If Onex, decides to play hardball on salaries, what are the options for WJ pilots? Widebody expansion, which the optimistic are heavily relying on,cannot make up enough growth to offset the potential loss of wages.Furthermore, widebody expansion is full of great risk and even greater expense. Perhaps Onex, will be wiling to spend the billions required to compete with a combined AC/AT, or perhaps they revert to the business plan that was delivering solid, and predictable positive returns. A combined AC/AT will have almost 130 widebodies.
Cheers.
The fact they have still been pushing a head with the JV with Delta tells me they don't plan on reverting back to the old business plan. Delta would have pulled out if they thought this purchase was going to change things for them. Delta doesn't want to partner with 1996 WJ.

I think we (pilots) will have better luck negotiating with the company under Onex. They are smart business people who work/reason with numbers, not emotional leaders who toss chairs when they don't get their way.
Hahaha...pretty soon those chairs will be too heavy for Clive to throw around, if they aren't already.
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