737 to 787 Upgrade Times

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altiplano
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by altiplano »

cloak wrote:Take the stock market for instance. An emotional investor that sees a 30% drop in his investment stays invested vowing never to sell until it goes back up and so on. In the process, the stock goes further down, and valuable time is wasted. A savvy investor takes the money out with the 30% loss, and invests it in something that is growing and has momentum. In the process, claims the capital loss against past gains, and before long that money has doubled surpassing the initial investment.
Is that how it goes?
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Duke Point
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Duke Point »

Guess I have an obvious question about 787 growth. Where is all the "untapped market" for all of these future arrivals?

I mean Air Canada, and Transat (pre-merger) would have filled any "obvious" market vacancies that would generate good, steady income, no? Are they poorly positioned to do so in the future, thus leaving a "hole" to fill? The fallout of choosing a Trudeau government is certainly going to impact things, and soon.

Boy, a brand new 787 at around $160,000,000 USD is going to need a pretty steady diet of decent yield in CDN $$$, meaning full airplanes all the time, and a roaring economy. Sounds a bit risky given that the competition will likely not "sit around" while someone else eats their lunch.

Is Gerry and the Onex BOD ready to roll the dice with billions in a Trudeau economic environment? There are a lot of Western Canadians tightening their belts, hard.

DP.
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Oxi
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Oxi »

YYC-FCO... the money maker
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Hangry
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Hangry »

Oxi wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:18 pm
YYC-FCO... the money maker
Total brilliance right there.
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Transonic
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Transonic »

Oxi wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:18 pm
YYC-FCO... the money maker
It’s kind of like YYC-DUB, which this summer was half filled with Americans from the West Coast USA.

The US3 are not pleased seeing AC/RV pull their passengers out of the USA and send them overseas. Canadian Airlines have a wage and currency advantage.

With the WS/DL JV, Delta will now have its competitive response to AC’s recent growth and the low fares that enabled it.

And WestJet still has a 10-20% cost advantage over AC.
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Hangry
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Hangry »

Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:16 am
Oxi wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:18 pm
YYC-FCO... the money maker
It’s kind of like YYC-DUB, which this summer was half filled with Americans from the West Coast USA.

The US3 are not pleased seeing AC/RV pull their passengers out of the USA and send them overseas. Canadian Airlines have a wage and currency advantage.

With the WS/DL JV, Delta will now have its competitive response to AC’s recent growth and the low fares that enabled it.

And WestJet still has a 10-20% cost advantage over AC.

Kind of like how WJ pays NB wages on the 87.
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Transonic
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Transonic »

Hangry wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:27 am
Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:16 am
Oxi wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:18 pm
YYC-FCO... the money maker
It’s kind of like YYC-DUB, which this summer was half filled with Americans from the West Coast USA.

The US3 are not pleased seeing AC/RV pull their passengers out of the USA and send them overseas. Canadian Airlines have a wage and currency advantage.

With the WS/DL JV, Delta will now have its competitive response to AC’s recent growth and the low fares that enabled it.

And WestJet still has a 10-20% cost advantage over AC.

Kind of like how WJ pays NB wages on the 87.

Not really. The cost advantage is over the entire operation.

I was also referring to a AC vs US3. Our dollar is 30% less with painfully lower wages. How many AC pilots make 5 figures on flat pay? Over a 1000? How many will there be after the last big hiring push in 2020? 1500? 1800?

I’m not trying to knock pay. Both AC and WS are recovering from arbitrated agreements that have lowered the bar.

I’m emphasizing the advantage AC has over the US3 which has fueled the growth strategy over the last 5 years. Now WestJet wants in and Delta wants to fight back.
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Transonic
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Transonic »

Duke Point wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:11 pm
Guess I have an obvious question about 787 growth. Where is all the "untapped market" for all of these future arrivals?

I mean Air Canada, and Transat (pre-merger) would have filled any "obvious" market vacancies that would generate good, steady income, no? Are they poorly positioned to do so in the future, thus leaving a "hole" to fill? The fallout of choosing a Trudeau government is certainly going to impact things, and soon.

Boy, a brand new 787 at around $160,000,000 USD is going to need a pretty steady diet of decent yield in CDN $$$, meaning full airplanes all the time, and a roaring economy. Sounds a bit risky given that the competition will likely not "sit around" while someone else eats their lunch.

Is Gerry and the Onex BOD ready to roll the dice with billions in a Trudeau economic environment? There are a lot of Western Canadians tightening their belts, hard.

DP.

WestJet traded 15MAX options for 10 787 firm orders with no additional capital required, so likely less than 160 million. WestJet leverage the 767 fiasco for the discount.

Unfortunately, there is no untapped market. Just AC’s market and WestJet is not shy stating that. WestJet will mainly focus on feeding European partners in their major hubs. It’s a lower risk strategy that leans on DL/KLM/AF and hopefully ensures the aircraft are full year round. Outside of AMS and CDG, WestJet may selectively move onto AC’s low hanging fruit, utilizing their cost advantage. They called it the Rinse, Wash, Repeat strategy in the 2000s.
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FL410AV8R
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by FL410AV8R »

Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:37 am
WestJet traded 15MAX options for 10 787 firm orders with no additional capital required, so likely less than 160 million. WestJet leverage the 767 fiasco for the discount.
Care to share where you got that information?? I haven’t seen that disclosed anywhere.

The last I saw was 10 firm and 10 options for 787s. Did they firm up the options??
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groundpilot
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by groundpilot »

Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:37 am
Duke Point wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:11 pm
Guess I have an obvious question about 787 growth. Where is all the "untapped market" for all of these future arrivals?

I mean Air Canada, and Transat (pre-merger) would have filled any "obvious" market vacancies that would generate good, steady income, no? Are they poorly positioned to do so in the future, thus leaving a "hole" to fill? The fallout of choosing a Trudeau government is certainly going to impact things, and soon.

Boy, a brand new 787 at around $160,000,000 USD is going to need a pretty steady diet of decent yield in CDN $$$, meaning full airplanes all the time, and a roaring economy. Sounds a bit risky given that the competition will likely not "sit around" while someone else eats their lunch.

Is Gerry and the Onex BOD ready to roll the dice with billions in a Trudeau economic environment? There are a lot of Western Canadians tightening their belts, hard.

DP.

WestJet traded 15MAX options for 10 787 firm orders with no additional capital required, so likely less than 160 million. WestJet leverage the 767 fiasco for the discount.

Unfortunately, there is no untapped market. Just AC’s market and WestJet is not shy stating that. WestJet will mainly focus on feeding European partners in their major hubs. It’s a lower risk strategy that leans on DL/KLM/AF and hopefully ensures the aircraft are full year round. Outside of AMS and CDG, WestJet may selectively move onto AC’s low hanging fruit, utilizing their cost advantage. They called it the Rinse, Wash, Repeat strategy in the 2000s.
Using yesterday’s strategies tomorrow...
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Transonic
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Transonic »

groundpilot wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 6:13 pm
Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:37 am
Duke Point wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:11 pm
Guess I have an obvious question about 787 growth. Where is all the "untapped market" for all of these future arrivals?

I mean Air Canada, and Transat (pre-merger) would have filled any "obvious" market vacancies that would generate good, steady income, no? Are they poorly positioned to do so in the future, thus leaving a "hole" to fill? The fallout of choosing a Trudeau government is certainly going to impact things, and soon.

Boy, a brand new 787 at around $160,000,000 USD is going to need a pretty steady diet of decent yield in CDN $$$, meaning full airplanes all the time, and a roaring economy. Sounds a bit risky given that the competition will likely not "sit around" while someone else eats their lunch.

Is Gerry and the Onex BOD ready to roll the dice with billions in a Trudeau economic environment? There are a lot of Western Canadians tightening their belts, hard.

DP.

WestJet traded 15MAX options for 10 787 firm orders with no additional capital required, so likely less than 160 million. WestJet leverage the 767 fiasco for the discount.

Unfortunately, there is no untapped market. Just AC’s market and WestJet is not shy stating that. WestJet will mainly focus on feeding European partners in their major hubs. It’s a lower risk strategy that leans on DL/KLM/AF and hopefully ensures the aircraft are full year round. Outside of AMS and CDG, WestJet may selectively move onto AC’s low hanging fruit, utilizing their cost advantage. They called it the Rinse, Wash, Repeat strategy in the 2000s.
Using yesterday’s strategies tomorrow...
Yep, nailed it. Slow, steady and low risk. It allowed WestJet to grow to 100 737s in 16 years.
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Transonic
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Transonic »

FL410AV8R wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:50 pm
Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:37 am
WestJet traded 15MAX options for 10 787 firm orders with no additional capital required, so likely less than 160 million. WestJet leverage the 767 fiasco for the discount.
Care to share where you got that information?? I haven’t seen that disclosed anywhere.

The last I saw was 10 firm and 10 options for 787s. Did they firm up the options??
As far as I know it’s still 10 firm and 10 options. I was referring to the original 10, which are at a steep discount.

A minor correction, it was 15 firm MAXs for 10 787s.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/w ... =eml_mycnw

“As part of this purchase agreement, WestJet is converting 15 firm orders for the Boeing 737 MAX that were to be delivered between 2019 and 2021 to options available between 2022 and 2024.”

It’s been 2 years but I think it was on a conference call where it was mentioned it was cost neutral.
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goingnowherefast
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by goingnowherefast »

I bet management is laughing about that one. Those Max's would have been currently be holding down the pavement in storage while the 787s orders are now out flying and producing revenue.
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altiplano
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by altiplano »

Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:32 pm
FL410AV8R wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:50 pm
Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:37 am
WestJet traded 15MAX options for 10 787 firm orders with no additional capital required, so likely less than 160 million. WestJet leverage the 767 fiasco for the discount.
Care to share where you got that information?? I haven’t seen that disclosed anywhere.

The last I saw was 10 firm and 10 options for 787s. Did they firm up the options??
As far as I know it’s still 10 firm and 10 options. I was referring to the original 10, which are at a steep discount.

A minor correction, it was 15 firm MAXs for 10 787s.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/w ... =eml_mycnw

“As part of this purchase agreement, WestJet is converting 15 firm orders for the Boeing 737 MAX that were to be delivered between 2019 and 2021 to options available between 2022 and 2024.”

It’s been 2 years but I think it was on a conference call where it was mentioned it was cost neutral.
I think you are misreading the deal... or maybe I'm misunderstanding your understanding of the statement.

As part of their 787 10/10 order, they were permitted to convert 15 firm MAX orders scheduled between 19-21, to 15 MAX options between 22-24.

It wasn't a trade of 15 MAXs for 10 787s.

If it was commented as cost neutral it was probably because it didn't cost them anything to convert firm MAX orders into options and they converted them to options at the same price they had for the firm orders.
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Transonic
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Transonic »

The initial MAX order was to be funded with debt and cash from operations.

WestJet then announced they would receive 10 787s and reduce the MAX order by 15. WestJet told the analysts there will be no adjustments to future capital requirements despite the fleet plan change.

In 2018, WestJet fell short of their profit expectations and no longer had the cash from operations that they expected, hence the sale and lease back.

WestJet wanted the 787 but at the A330NEO price, and they did that.
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slob driver
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by slob driver »

Hangry wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:28 pm
Oxi wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:18 pm
YYC-FCO... the money maker
Total brilliance right there.
You mean brilliance like starting routes into YQQ? Or the multiple routes into LAS. Or PSP etc. ?
If WS is starting a route into FCO, there is a good reason for it. You do realize the Vice President, Network, Alliances, & Corporate Development at WestJet is a former United/Continental VP of Network planning? These types of people are not just throwing a dart at a board to decide where to launch a 787. FCO is a methodically planned destination. BCN looked curious as well, but it is still being serviced next year.
WS has a substantial domestic network. Considering TS is able to serve many markets successfully without domestic feed, I think WS will likely be fine on the YYC-FCO route. Especially with DL feeding it out of ATL.
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Last edited by slob driver on Tue Nov 05, 2019 10:01 am, edited 1 time in total.

slob driver
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by slob driver »

Hangry wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:27 am
Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:16 am
Oxi wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:18 pm
YYC-FCO... the money maker
It’s kind of like YYC-DUB, which this summer was half filled with Americans from the West Coast USA.

The US3 are not pleased seeing AC/RV pull their passengers out of the USA and send them overseas. Canadian Airlines have a wage and currency advantage.

With the WS/DL JV, Delta will now have its competitive response to AC’s recent growth and the low fares that enabled it.

And WestJet still has a 10-20% cost advantage over AC.

Kind of like how WJ pays NB wages on the 87.
I am not certain where this statement is coming from. If you are referring only to AC/WS WB rates versus U.S. carriers, what you are saying is correct. The rates have a lot of catching up to do v. United/Delta/American.
However, it seems you are making that statement doing a comparison of AC to WS. If that is the case, the numbers do no back up your statement. AC 787 captain present day/night blended rate is $274.71. Add 10.5% (CWIPP TB company % given to pilots) to that and total hourly compensation for the 787 at AC is $303.55. The AC 767 total comp rate with (hourly and TB company portion) is $279.37. Now the DB plan would be superior, but that is a past service benefit that is not available to new-hires, so it is not included here.
WS compensation on Jan.1/2020 on the 767/787 is as follows: Hourly rate of $247.06. Add 20% to this for the WestJet saving plan/pension plan. The pilots aren't certain what that will look like, but negotiations are ongoing. The value will be the same as it is now, so the total hourly compensation will be static.
$247.06 + 20%= $296.47

So the total hourly compensation (hourly rate plus pension/espp) for AC and WS are as follows as of Jan.1/2020-

AC 787-$303.55
WS 787- $296.47
WS 767-$296.47
AC 767-$279.37

*These numbers to not include profit share (which comes and goes), stock options (which has been substantial for WJ pilots recently), AC esop (which is not near as popular as the WS ESPP) override pay (which AC has and WJ does not).*

As I said, if one is to bring in the American comparators, all of the above numbers are disgraceful. We as Canadian pilots can look at all of ourselves in the mirror as to why we find ourselves where we do. When comparing AC numbers in 1998 to Delta 1998, they were equal.
But to say that WS pilots are being paid like narrowbody pilots versus AC WB pilots, this is patently false.
For the record, I would presently always recommend a younger (35 and under?) pilot go to AC over WS right now due to the demographic shift occurring at AC right now. Rouge also isn't a terrible place to be while waiting for your relative seniority to build on Mainline AC metal. Now WS on the other hand..... at present the upgrades are quite a bit longer than AC, and WS pilots have to deal with what could be deemed the "swamp" that is Swoop. I call it a swamp because no one knows what it may do to your career earnings, progression etc. on the WJ seniority list. You may sink into the "swamp" or you may be able to swim through it. We shall see what the future holds when Onex comes in. Will Swoop survive? Big WB order? Big A220 or EMB 175 order? All TBD. Look at the Frontier CBA or the recent Spirit Airbus order. Things change in this industry on a dime.
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flashheart
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by flashheart »

You forgot overseas and nav pay of $12 & $11 respectively at AC...
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slob driver
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by slob driver »

flashheart wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:13 pm
You forgot overseas and nav pay of $12 & $11 respectively at AC...
At most airlines, the AC term "overseas pay" and "nav pay" are called override pay (which was mentioned in my previous post) which could be a special international/special operational theatre override or night override pay etc. I purposely did not include this since there is some 787 and 767 runs that are doing domestic routes (yvr-yyz, yyc-yyz etc.) where there would be no override. Just as stock options were not included since some option years were not worth anything. However, in other years, there was an uplift of $60,000. Very difficult to make a general statement regarding economic items that may or may not be applicable globally.
Please be aware that I am not trying to create a pissing contest of AC vs. WS. I think it's important that AC pilots are aware of what other pilot groups are making so that when the AC and TS pilot negotiate their joint Collective Agreement, they hit one out of the park. And then the WS pilots continue the pattern. That's how this game works. You never see a UAL pilot saying "I make so much more than a DAL guy" The U.S.legacy pilots point to where their CBA is lacking and insist that their union maximize the pattern bargain for their pilot group. Pattern bargaining is alive and well in the U.S. Here not so much. We need to realize we are all on the same team and start the pattern. I truly hope the AC/TS pilots hit it out of the park. Find every dollar in the WS contract (first 4 years of our f/o scale/max days worked for WB pilots/long call reserve etc.) to help achieve great gains in your CA.
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yycflyguy
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by yycflyguy »

I agree that all Canadian pilots need to work together for the collective good - that was supposed to be the purpose of the Canadian College of Professional Pilots. Man, did that ever fall flat on its face.

Just for clarity; the B767/B787 doing domestic and transborder flights is a stop gap for the MAX grounding. It is temporary. NAV + overseas + night + flying rate is a significant increase. One other point is that there is not a single B767/B787 Captain who is on a CWIPP pension. They are all on the DB pension. You are selectively posting the best parts of WJ compensation and the worst case scenarios for the AC comparison.... having said that, BOTH AC and Westjet should be looking for a UAL/DAL contract for total package.

There won't be a negotiation of the CBA based on the pending merger. The TS guys will have an AC CBA. It is a huge windfall gain in both pay and lifestyle for them.
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by DropTanks »

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Last edited by DropTanks on Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

vermont
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by vermont »

Transonic wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:37 am
Duke Point wrote:
Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:11 pm
Guess I have an obvious question about 787 growth. Where is all the "untapped market" for all of these future arrivals?

I mean Air Canada, and Transat (pre-merger) would have filled any "obvious" market vacancies that would generate good, steady income, no? Are they poorly positioned to do so in the future, thus leaving a "hole" to fill? The fallout of choosing a Trudeau government is certainly going to impact things, and soon.

Boy, a brand new 787 at around $160,000,000 USD is going to need a pretty steady diet of decent yield in CDN $$$, meaning full airplanes all the time, and a roaring economy. Sounds a bit risky given that the competition will likely not "sit around" while someone else eats their lunch.

Is Gerry and the Onex BOD ready to roll the dice with billions in a Trudeau economic environment? There are a lot of Western Canadians tightening their belts, hard.

DP.

WestJet traded 15MAX options for 10 787 firm orders with no additional capital required, so likely less than 160 million. WestJet leverage the 767 fiasco for the discount.

Unfortunately, there is no untapped market. Just AC’s market and WestJet is not shy stating that. WestJet will mainly focus on feeding European partners in their major hubs. It’s a lower risk strategy that leans on DL/KLM/AF and hopefully ensures the aircraft are full year round. Outside of AMS and CDG, WestJet may selectively move onto AC’s low hanging fruit, utilizing their cost advantage. They called it the Rinse, Wash, Repeat strategy in the 2000s.
Can you explain the fiasco? DId they lease the 30 year old Qantas planes from boeing capital? Why would Boeing care otherwise?
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Transonic
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Transonic »

The choice was 12 year old A332s from Emirates or the much older Qantas 763s.

Airbus was brokering the A332 deal that included induction assistance, which WestJet liked. Boeing countered with a deal where Boeing would buy the 767s and overhaul to Canadian standards.

Boeing subcontracted the work to a contractor that fell well below expectations. The aircraft were delivered late and below the standard promised.

WestJet built an ambitious schedule with the assurance from Boeing that these 767s will have a high dispatch reliability. That did not happen.
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Eric Janson
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by Eric Janson »

Transonic wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:08 pm
The choice was 12 year old A332s from Emirates or the much older Qantas 763s.

Airbus was brokering the A332 deal that included induction assistance, which WestJet liked. Boeing countered with a deal where Boeing would buy the 767s and overhaul to Canadian standards.

Boeing subcontracted the work to a contractor that fell well below expectations. The aircraft were delivered late and below the standard promised.

WestJet built an ambitious schedule with the assurance from Boeing that these 767s will have a high dispatch reliability. That did not happen.
A missed opportunity imho.

Having flown both the A332 is by far the better machine.

A320CEO beats the 737-300 as well. Haven't flown the NG or newer A320 versions.

I fly a 20+ year old airbus - very few issues. Mature technology - no surprises.
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Re: 737 to 787 Upgrade Times

Post by lostaviator »

Eric Janson wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:16 am
Transonic wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 9:08 pm
The choice was 12 year old A332s from Emirates or the much older Qantas 763s.

Airbus was brokering the A332 deal that included induction assistance, which WestJet liked. Boeing countered with a deal where Boeing would buy the 767s and overhaul to Canadian standards.

Boeing subcontracted the work to a contractor that fell well below expectations. The aircraft were delivered late and below the standard promised.

WestJet built an ambitious schedule with the assurance from Boeing that these 767s will have a high dispatch reliability. That did not happen.
Mature technology - no surprises.
Except for those pesky "hard landings" because the technology is so "mature".
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