Will Westjet survive?

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tailgunner
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by tailgunner »

Brooks,
Sims is on record saying that WJ was burning 22 000 000 a day as well. Both companies would initially burn more cash and then settle into a reduced rate as time goes on. AC announced the end of the CEWS program for 20000 employees because even with the program, the corporation is still paying benefits and taxes per employee. So, don’t look at that as a negative for the corporation. AC just lightened their costs further.
Secondly, AC has now flown 1200 cargo flights since early March. They don’t fly, unless the flight is making money. There are now at least 7 converted WB aircraft doing daily cargo flights. Do you know how WJ is utilizing their WB fleet?
Thirdly, WJ is a piece of ONEX’s portfolio. ONEX has other companies that are under the COVID squeeze. How’s the admissions at the movies, or the production companies? Spirit manufacturing has been hurting since the MAX fiasco.The aircraft leasing company is facing hard times for sure, as leases are abandoned or valued downwards? Last I checked, ONEX has a market cap of 6.4 B, AC is 4.3B. The difference is all of AC’s resources go towards AC. How much of ONEX’s resources are allocated to WJ? Will ONEX sacrifice another company to provide capital for WJ? The truth is, no one knows. Sims doesn’t even know.
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CFM Symphony
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by CFM Symphony »

tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:22 pm Brooks,
Sims is on record saying that WJ was burning 22 000 000 a day as well.
Interesting "facts". Here is a fact backed by actual math. WJ revenue 2018 (last full year available before going private) was $4.7bil. Divide that by 365 = $13mil a day...and that's revenue not cost, and at full operating capacity. The rest of your narrative is equally based on counterfactuals.
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tailgunner
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by tailgunner »

CFM Symphony,
Check the Financial Post May 6, 2020.

Westjet will make it through Covid, but may not recover to previous size, warns CEO. Is the article title.
Sims said that during early March, WJ was burning 25000000$ a day. His statement not mine.
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aerobod
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by aerobod »

tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 11:13 pm CFM Symphony,
Check the Financial Post May 6, 2020.

Westjet will make it through Covid, but may not recover to previous size, warns CEO. Is the article title.
Sims said that during early March, WJ was burning 25000000$ a day. His statement not mine.
Cheers
If you’ve ever done press interviews (as I have done for industry publications), you will know they don’t always take accurate notes or listen to their recordings properly, as cash burn was a lot less than $25m in late March after flights started to be cancelled. There is no reason it would suddenly jump to more than double the normal daily cost with zero revenue. I expect Ed said something like “our cash burn has increased to five million per day” which they interpreted as “our cash burn has increased, two five million per day”.

Best to use logic when analyzing information presented as facts in the press, they are not the best at understanding the quantification of figures they are reporting.
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brooks
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by brooks »

In 80 years you won't be flying in airplanes. You'll be a systems technician working on a spaceship heading to Mars.

ONEX has been highly successful and I doubt that they would tell WestJet to issue layoffs taking into account re-training costs without the required foresight. Right now AC has a trickle of their international destinations open which provides the bread and butter of their operations.
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CFM Symphony
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by CFM Symphony »

tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 11:13 pm WJ was burning 25000000$ a day. His statement not mine.
No. That’s the media’s statement, not his. And boy have the media gotten it wrong over the years. I’m not arguing with the media. I’m arguing against basing one’s hypotheses on clear misrepresentations which are easy to fact-check.
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Hangry
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by Hangry »

brooks wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 11:41 pm In 80 years you won't be flying in airplanes. You'll be a systems technician working on a spaceship heading to Mars.
Sure maybe. But I guarantee it won’t have WJ painted on it.
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Sharklasers
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by Sharklasers »

CFM Symphony wrote: Thu May 28, 2020 5:17 am
tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 11:13 pm WJ was burning 25000000$ a day. His statement not mine.
No. That’s the media’s statement, not his. And boy have the media gotten it wrong over the years. I’m not arguing with the media. I’m arguing against basing one’s hypotheses on clear misrepresentations which are easy to fact-check.
Except he did say it in an interview with the financial post?

“ Sims said in the worst days of early March, when cancellations were outstripping new bookings and before the airline made the decision to temporarily furlough half its staff, WestJet was burning through cash at a rate of about $25 million per day.”

https://business.financialpost.com/busi ... d497a6735d

I’m sure it’s not where close to 25 million a day now and a lot of that number was probably paying out your refundable tickets and the burden of the emergency measures.
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CFM Symphony
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by CFM Symphony »

We are beating a dead horse arguing over the broken telephone that is the media. Either way, yes, actual cash burn rates are likely somewhere in the single digit millions per day.
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sarg
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by sarg »

tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:22 pm Brooks,
Sims is on record saying that WJ was burning 22 000 000 a day as well. Both companies would initially burn more cash and then settle into a reduced rate as time goes on. AC announced the end of the CEWS program for 20000 employees because even with the program, the corporation is still paying benefits and taxes per employee. So, don’t look at that as a negative for the corporation. AC just lightened their costs further.
Secondly, AC has now flown 1200 cargo flights since early March. They don’t fly, unless the flight is making money. There are now at least 7 converted WB aircraft doing daily cargo flights. Do you know how WJ is utilizing their WB fleet?
Thirdly, WJ is a piece of ONEX’s portfolio. ONEX has other companies that are under the COVID squeeze. How’s the admissions at the movies, or the production companies? Spirit manufacturing has been hurting since the MAX fiasco.The aircraft leasing company is facing hard times for sure, as leases are abandoned or valued downwards? Last I checked, ONEX has a market cap of 6.4 B, AC is 4.3B. The difference is all of AC’s resources go towards AC. How much of ONEX’s resources are allocated to WJ? Will ONEX sacrifice another company to provide capital for WJ? The truth is, no one knows. Sims doesn’t even know.
Cheers
While I'm sure Onex has other companies being squeezed by COVID, I'm sure they're not worried about movie admissions or the MAX production line. Cineplex and Spirit Aerosystems are no longer in the Onex portfolio of companies.
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brooks
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by brooks »

tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:22 pm Brooks,
Thirdly, WJ is a piece of ONEX’s portfolio. ONEX has other companies that are under the COVID squeeze. How’s the admissions at the movies, or the production companies? Spirit manufacturing has been hurting since the MAX fiasco.The aircraft leasing company is facing hard times for sure, as leases are abandoned or valued downwards? Last I checked, ONEX has a market cap of 6.4 B, AC is 4.3B. The difference is all of AC’s resources go towards AC. How much of ONEX’s resources are allocated to WJ? Will ONEX sacrifice another company to provide capital for WJ? The truth is, no one knows. Sims doesn’t even know.
Cheers
Incorrect information Tailgunner. Current list of Companies which appears to be well diversified.
Onex Corp is a Canada-based private equity company. Its segments include Electronics Manufacturing Services, including Celestica Inc. that provides electronics manufacturing services; Healthcare Imaging, including Carestream Health, Inc. that provides healthcare information technology solutions; Health and Human Services, including Res-Care, Inc. that provides residential, educational and support services; Building Products, including JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. that manufactures windows and related products; Insurance Services, including USI Insurance Services; Packaging Products and Services, including SGS International, LLC and SIG Combibloc Group Holdings S.a r.l.; Business and Information Services, including Clarivate Analytics and Emerald Expositions, LLC; Food Retail and Restaurants, including Save-A-Lot; Credit Strategies, including Onex Credit Manager, and Other, including Survitec Group Limited. It also provides airlines service through its portfolio company WestJet Airlines Ltd and BBAM Aircraft Leasing.
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Rezy
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by Rezy »

brooks wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 12:13 pm
tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:22 pm Brooks,
Thirdly, WJ is a piece of ONEX’s portfolio. ONEX has other companies that are under the COVID squeeze. How’s the admissions at the movies, or the production companies? Spirit manufacturing has been hurting since the MAX fiasco.The aircraft leasing company is facing hard times for sure, as leases are abandoned or valued downwards? Last I checked, ONEX has a market cap of 6.4 B, AC is 4.3B. The difference is all of AC’s resources go towards AC. How much of ONEX’s resources are allocated to WJ? Will ONEX sacrifice another company to provide capital for WJ? The truth is, no one knows. Sims doesn’t even know.
Cheers
Incorrect information Tailgunner. Current list of Companies which appears to be well diversified.
Onex Corp is a Canada-based private equity company. Its segments include Electronics Manufacturing Services, including Celestica Inc. that provides electronics manufacturing services; Healthcare Imaging, including Carestream Health, Inc. that provides healthcare information technology solutions; Health and Human Services, including Res-Care, Inc. that provides residential, educational and support services; Building Products, including JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. that manufactures windows and related products; Insurance Services, including USI Insurance Services; Packaging Products and Services, including SGS International, LLC and SIG Combibloc Group Holdings S.a r.l.; Business and Information Services, including Clarivate Analytics and Emerald Expositions, LLC; Food Retail and Restaurants, including Save-A-Lot; Credit Strategies, including Onex Credit Manager, and Other, including Survitec Group Limited. It also provides airlines service through its portfolio company WestJet Airlines Ltd and BBAM Aircraft Leasing.
You’re missing the point Brooks.
As all of those companies are held privately through ONEX, people don’t know how big those companies are, what the sales are like, profit margins, assets, etc etc. They are buried beneath layers of funds and equity stakes.
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aerobod
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by aerobod »

Rezy wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 6:13 pm
brooks wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 12:13 pm
tailgunner wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 7:22 pm Brooks,
Thirdly, WJ is a piece of ONEX’s portfolio. ONEX has other companies that are under the COVID squeeze. How’s the admissions at the movies, or the production companies? Spirit manufacturing has been hurting since the MAX fiasco.The aircraft leasing company is facing hard times for sure, as leases are abandoned or valued downwards? Last I checked, ONEX has a market cap of 6.4 B, AC is 4.3B. The difference is all of AC’s resources go towards AC. How much of ONEX’s resources are allocated to WJ? Will ONEX sacrifice another company to provide capital for WJ? The truth is, no one knows. Sims doesn’t even know.
Cheers
Incorrect information Tailgunner. Current list of Companies which appears to be well diversified.
Onex Corp is a Canada-based private equity company. Its segments include Electronics Manufacturing Services, including Celestica Inc. that provides electronics manufacturing services; Healthcare Imaging, including Carestream Health, Inc. that provides healthcare information technology solutions; Health and Human Services, including Res-Care, Inc. that provides residential, educational and support services; Building Products, including JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. that manufactures windows and related products; Insurance Services, including USI Insurance Services; Packaging Products and Services, including SGS International, LLC and SIG Combibloc Group Holdings S.a r.l.; Business and Information Services, including Clarivate Analytics and Emerald Expositions, LLC; Food Retail and Restaurants, including Save-A-Lot; Credit Strategies, including Onex Credit Manager, and Other, including Survitec Group Limited. It also provides airlines service through its portfolio company WestJet Airlines Ltd and BBAM Aircraft Leasing.
You’re missing the point Brooks.
As all of those companies are held privately through ONEX, people don’t know how big those companies are, what the sales are like, profit margins, assets, etc etc. They are buried beneath layers of funds and equity stakes.
Plenty of information in their 171 page annual report, for example p37 has a breakdown of revenue and cost of goods sold by Industry sector: https://www.onex.com/static-files/1088c ... 7d68b95d3a
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Rezy
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by Rezy »

aerobod wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 7:54 pm
Rezy wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 6:13 pm
brooks wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 12:13 pm

Incorrect information Tailgunner. Current list of Companies which appears to be well diversified.
Onex Corp is a Canada-based private equity company. Its segments include Electronics Manufacturing Services, including Celestica Inc. that provides electronics manufacturing services; Healthcare Imaging, including Carestream Health, Inc. that provides healthcare information technology solutions; Health and Human Services, including Res-Care, Inc. that provides residential, educational and support services; Building Products, including JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. that manufactures windows and related products; Insurance Services, including USI Insurance Services; Packaging Products and Services, including SGS International, LLC and SIG Combibloc Group Holdings S.a r.l.; Business and Information Services, including Clarivate Analytics and Emerald Expositions, LLC; Food Retail and Restaurants, including Save-A-Lot; Credit Strategies, including Onex Credit Manager, and Other, including Survitec Group Limited. It also provides airlines service through its portfolio company WestJet Airlines Ltd and BBAM Aircraft Leasing.
You’re missing the point Brooks.
As all of those companies are held privately through ONEX, people don’t know how big those companies are, what the sales are like, profit margins, assets, etc etc. They are buried beneath layers of funds and equity stakes.
Plenty of information in their 171 page annual report, for example p37 has a breakdown of revenue and cost of goods sold by Industry sector: https://www.onex.com/static-files/1088c ... 7d68b95d3a
Here is there q1 report https://www.onex.com/static-files/8778c ... 943b1976b3
What was WestJets revenue? Information not available
What was WestJets loss? Information not available

The only information provided is that WestJet is held by a fund that lost 111 million in q1.

The only point I’m trying to make is that the information is scarce. You’ll never see CCAA coming.
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by aerobod »

Rezy wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 10:38 pm
aerobod wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 7:54 pm
Rezy wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 6:13 pm

You’re missing the point Brooks.
As all of those companies are held privately through ONEX, people don’t know how big those companies are, what the sales are like, profit margins, assets, etc etc. They are buried beneath layers of funds and equity stakes.
Plenty of information in their 171 page annual report, for example p37 has a breakdown of revenue and cost of goods sold by Industry sector: https://www.onex.com/static-files/1088c ... 7d68b95d3a
Here is there q1 report https://www.onex.com/static-files/8778c ... 943b1976b3
What was WestJets revenue? Information not available
What was WestJets loss? Information not available

The only information provided is that WestJet is held by a fund that lost 111 million in q1.

The only point I’m trying to make is that the information is scarce. You’ll never see CCAA coming.
It is too early to see the WS reporting, as the private company books need to be consolidated then incorporated into the Onex public books under IFRS rules, so the Onex books will likely be closed for a given quarter before incorporation of the WS audited info. The details are there for other acquisitions and sectors, they will appear for WS at some point this year, I expect, they have already announced the write down of some of their investment: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busines ... jet-stake/

Also there are various press articles on Onex’s Covid strategy, such as this one: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/onex-touts- ... -1.1412645
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brooks
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by brooks »

Rezy wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 10:38 pm
aerobod wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 7:54 pm
Rezy wrote: Sat May 30, 2020 6:13 pm You’re missing the point Brooks.
As all of those companies are held privately through ONEX, people don’t know how big those companies are, what the sales are like, profit margins, assets, etc etc. They are buried beneath layers of funds and equity stakes.
Plenty of information in their 171 page annual report, for example p37 has a breakdown of revenue and cost of goods sold by Industry sector: https://www.onex.com/static-files/1088c ... 7d68b95d3a
Here is there q1 report https://www.onex.com/static-files/8778c ... 943b1976b3
What was WestJets revenue? Information not available
What was WestJets loss? Information not available

The only information provided is that WestJet is held by a fund that lost 111 million in q1.

The only point I’m trying to make is that the information is scarce. You’ll never see CCAA coming.
Of course the information is scarce, It is a private company now. You will unlikely see any financial details of WJ until years from now when ONEX takes it public again. For now that's the beauty of being a private company, unlike AC who will take a lot longer to recover than WJ IMHO.
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Mostly Harmless
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by Mostly Harmless »

I find it interesting that there is no "Will Air Canada Survive" thread or it's equivalent on the Air Canada Forum. It seems that they are in the same industry and face the same issues and challenges. Is it that all Canadians just expect and know that the government will bail out AC no matter what and have come to accept that as an acceptable use of their tax money?
Old fella wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:56 am JT doesn’t hate Alberta

I'm sorry, but that is a false statement. JT absolutely hates Alberta. I will just leave you with his own words on the subject. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEyjgn6zD5Q
Hangry wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 6:32 pm AC is here for the long game.

WJ is not.

Time will tell.

I’ll bet another 80 years on it.
I would like to know what you are basing that statement on?
Hangry wrote: Thu May 28, 2020 6:20 am Sure maybe. But I guarantee it won’t have WJ painted on it.
I would really like to know what you are basing this statement on? Apparently, you have information the rest of us do not and I think it would be irresponsible of you not to share with all these pilots who are planning their career choices. Tell us all how you are so certain of the future.
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rudder
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by rudder »

Mostly Harmless wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:46 am I find it interesting that there is no "Will Air Canada Survive" thread or it's equivalent on the Air Canada Forum. It seems that they are in the same industry and face the same issues and challenges. Is it that all Canadians just expect and know that the government will bail out AC no matter what and have come to accept that as an acceptable use of their tax money?
Any industry targeted government aid, if it ever comes, will not designate a single beneficiary. However, not all carriers are in the same financial condition nor will their recovery be in tandem. Different balance sheets, different business models, different fiduciary oversight.

Better questions for every CDN passenger air carrier are:

1. Will carrier XYZ file for CCCA?

2. If carrier XYZ files for CCAA, will it successfully restructure or liquidate?

Perform that survey for each passenger carrier. Assign odds. I do not think that a single passenger airline in Canada can say there is zero chance of a CCAA filing as a result of COVID depressed revenues. And for a carrier who’s business model is inconsistent with the COVID era travel demand or is highly leveraged that finds itself in CCAA, a successful refinancing and restructuring may not be an assured outcome.
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sstaurus
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by sstaurus »

Mostly Harmless wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:46 am I find it interesting that there is no "Will Air Canada Survive" thread or it's equivalent on the Air Canada Forum. It seems that they are in the same industry and face the same issues and challenges. Is it that all Canadians just expect and know that the government will bail out AC no matter what and have come to accept that as an acceptable use of their tax money?
Old fella wrote: Tue May 26, 2020 10:56 am JT doesn’t hate Alberta

I'm sorry, but that is a false statement. JT absolutely hates Alberta. I will just leave you with his own words on the subject. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEyjgn6zD5Q
Hangry wrote: Wed May 27, 2020 6:32 pm AC is here for the long game.

WJ is not.

Time will tell.

I’ll bet another 80 years on it.
I would like to know what you are basing that statement on?
Hangry wrote: Thu May 28, 2020 6:20 am Sure maybe. But I guarantee it won’t have WJ painted on it.
I would really like to know what you are basing this statement on? Apparently, you have information the rest of us do not and I think it would be irresponsible of you not to share with all these pilots who are planning their career choices. Tell us all how you are so certain of the future.
Because Hangry is a troll for AC. They can do no wrong.
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ayseven
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Re: Will Westjet survive?

Post by ayseven »

The real question should be: "how much legroom and armroom am I going to have now?" I think things are looking up!
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