#Swoopprez Out!

[Blue42]

Exactly.

It's the international growth (787's) of WJ that's probably going to take a hit for a couple of years. The low cost part is probably going to see good growth figures.

As long as there is cargo to move around the globe I'd rather think the 737 will take the hit.

Definitely sounds like a good time to be at Encore.

Anyone that is at Encore is very likely gone in the next month....plus half the jet folks.

[Flight_Deck]

Highly doubt it if there is an airline stimulus package that takes effect. The companies want to mitigate lay-offs at all costs and to implement the PTA will cost WestJet millions of dollars in training and retraining costs. Management will do everything in their power to not have to implement the PTA in my opinion. Plus when the industry spools up, I don’t think WestJet will want to be left in the dust by Air Canada. Not saying there won’t be any layoffs but all of Encore and half the jet pilots seems excessive and unrealistic. I’m sure there will be concessions to the contract that a high majority of the WestJet pilots will be okay with temporarily to allow the company to weather the storm and allow more pilots to hold onto their jobs.

[Yycjetdriver]

Highly doubt it if there is an airline stimulus package that takes effect. The companies want to mitigate lay-offs at all costs and to implement the PTA will cost WestJet millions of dollars in training and retraining costs. Management will do everything in their power to not have to implement the PTA in my opinion. Plus when the industry spools up, I don’t think WestJet will want to be left in the dust by Air Canada. Not saying there won’t be any layoffs but all of Encore and half the jet pilots seems excessive and unrealistic. I’m sure there will be concessions to the contract that a high majority of the WestJet pilots will be okay with temporarily to allow the company to weather the storm and allow more pilots to hold onto their jobs.

There cannot be concessions to the contract without the agreement of both parties. While mainline pilots were willing to allow concessions for April, the majority are not willing to allow concessions for an extended period.
Management is to blame this, they’ve always played hard ball when trying to adhere to the contract, they’ve tried to manipulate the contract at every turn and they’ve tried to circumvent the contract(Swoop).
The pilot group knows that if concessions are given they’re likely never returned in their entirety. They also know that when the next next CBA is being worked on our economy/industry will be in a worse place. The whole point of a CBA is to offer protection, there should be zero reason to give in to longer term concessions it’s not like we’re all making 500k a year a good chunk of the pilots barely make ends meat with 100% CBA compliance.

[ayseven]

As painful as it is right now, it is a lot more painful to hire and train new people once they need them.They stand to lose a lot of business while they spool up, once things improve on the health front. The wheels usually move slowly in big companies.

[flashheart]

Correct me if I'm wrong...

Low Cost Carriers depend on densification to keep fares down.

Who in their right mind wants to be crammed in a plane right now?

Prove me wrong but I see air travel being for the wealthy in the short to medium term.

We are years away from having this virus to a level where people are willing to be crammed together.

Hope I'm wrong but things have changed, dramatically

[digits_]

We are years away from having this virus to a level where people are willing to be crammed together.

Hope I'm wrong but things have changed, dramatically

I doubt it. Only people who have seen close friends and family members suffer or die from the disease, will be weary and will want to distance themselves. For others it will pretty quickly be a distant memory.

That doens't mean people will want to fly right away, but that will mainly be for money reasons, not quarantaine/health reasons.

[vermont]

As long as there is cargo to move around the globe I'd rather think the 737 will take the hit.

Definitely sounds like a good time to be at Encore.

Anyone that is at Encore is very likely gone in the next month....plus half the jet folks.

epitome of 2 pilots 3 opinions!

[vermont]

Don't forget he wanted pilots to pay for coffee.

As long as the HQ gets 1 ply!

[Launchpad1]

Correct me if I'm wrong...

Low Cost Carriers depend on densification to keep fares down.

Who in their right mind wants to be crammed in a plane right now?

Prove me wrong but I see air travel being for the wealthy in the short to medium term.

We are years away from having this virus to a level where people are willing to be crammed together.

Hope I'm wrong but things have changed, dramatically

I’m pretty sure only if there was a government stipulation stating that there had to be a gap between passengers that this would be an issue.

With the cerb and possible mortgage delayed payments there’s a lot of people who won’t be any worse of financially than if they’d been working. They’re going to want to fly places as soon as possible.

[telex]

Correct me if I'm wrong...

Low Cost Carriers depend on densification to keep fares down.

Who in their right mind wants to be crammed in a plane right now?

Prove me wrong but I see air travel being for the wealthy in the short to medium term.

We are years away from having this virus to a level where people are willing to be crammed together.

Hope I'm wrong but things have changed, dramatically

I’m pretty sure only if there was a government stipulation stating that there had to be a gap between passengers that this would be an issue.

With the cerb and possible mortgage delayed payments there’s a lot of people who won’t be any worse of financially than if they’d been working.


They’re going to want to fly places as soon as possible.

Wrong and wrong.
Delayed mortgages still need to be paid.
Do you have a vehicle payment?
Do you need to eat?
Is your credit card paid up?
Do you like heat and lights in your house?
Will you pay your property tax or fly somewhere as soon possible?
Will you pay your vehicle and or home insurance or fly somewhere as soon as possible?

['97 Tercel]

Wait, are those rhetorical or do we have to answer them?

[telex]

Wait, are those rhetorical or do we have to answer them?

Silly me.
I didn't ask what destination you wanted to fly to as soon as possible.
Please, the floor is yours.

[fishface]

Canadians already have bad spending habits (high debt to income ratio, etc.)
So maybe it’ll be status quo and load up the credit card, go on vacation when this is all over anyway?
Airlines also might be having some sweet seat sales to get the momentum going too.
I was unfortunately laid off because of all this too, but the wife and I are in good shape, especially with EI/CERB and now the wage subsidy program. You can bet your a$$ when things open up again and we can fly, we’ll be the first to be eating out at local restaurants to support our economy and we’re taking a vacation - the one we were supposed to go on this week actually. We of course do not load up the credit card, that would make me a hypocrite!

And about the “being crammed” thing:
Define being crammed. Like does being on a 189 seat -800 (swoop, for the “not so wealthy” folks to paraphrase what was said above) or a 174 seat -800 make a difference? If you ask me it’s all the same $hit.
What about being on a 300+ seat 787? It’s all the same...
Or does a couple inches here and there actually make a difference in psychological comfort factor RE the virus when travel will be open again?

You ask who in their right mind wants to be crammed into an aircraft...
Will it be any different when restaurants/bars open and it’s a full house? All the same...

[telex]

Canadians already have bad spending habits (high debt to income ratio, etc.)
So maybe it’ll be status quo and load up the credit card, go on vacation when this is all over anyway?
Airlines also might be having some sweet seat sales to get the momentum going too.
I was unfortunately laid off because of all this too, but the wife and I are in good shape, especially with EI/CERB and now the wage subsidy program. You can bet your a$$ when things open up again and we can fly, we’ll be the first to be eating out at local restaurants to support our economy and we’re taking a vacation - the one we were supposed to go on this week actually. We of course do not load up the credit card, that would make me a hypocrite!

And about the “being crammed” thing:
Define being crammed. Like does being on a 189 seat -800 (swoop, for the “not so wealthy” folks to paraphrase what was said above) or a 174 seat -800 make a difference? If you ask me it’s all the same $hit.
What about being on a 300+ seat 787? It’s all the same...
Or does a couple inches here and there actually make a difference in psychological comfort factor RE the virus when travel will be open again?

You ask who in their right mind wants to be crammed into an aircraft...
Will it be any different when restaurants/bars open and it’s a full house? All the same...

You and the wife are in good shape because of EI and CERB?

Unemployed and receiving government benefits puts you and yours in good shape?

[fishface]

You’re right, let me clarify.
We could live years with 0 income. The gov benefits help just that much more.

[TG]

You’re right, let me clarify.
We could live years with 0 income. The gov benefits help just that much more.

I'm happy for you but it is far for being the norm, able to live years with 0 income.

On a side note, there is this possibility that airlines might be ordered to fill only one seat out of two post lockdown (not talking specifically about Canada but they could follow suit) This trying to curb playing virus ping pong between countries.

Flying at half capacity for a few months or more will mean raising fares big times..

[fishface]

You’re right and I wasn’t trying to be our sound like “that guy”.
I’m just eager to contribute to the economy and make what little difference I can when things open up.

We will see what restrictions are imposed on the airlines when we get out of it.
In this day and age with all the technology/smartphones etc. Where it’s instant info and you can pick and choose what you want to see and stuff, I think this virus thing will be out of sight, out of mind.
The hype may be gone just as fast as it showed up. H1N1 didn’t collapse the world economy in 2009 (ok, the world wasn’t doing great anyway but still, the world didn’t come to a standstill) and I think it’s the media hype nowadays that is to blame for this large scale panic so to speak. Not trying to downplay the Coronavirus but I think it’s blown a little bit out of proportion.
The swine flu infected between 700mil and 1.2bil people, deaths estimated as high as 575k. We weren’t grounding airlines back then and businesses weren’t closing!

[BTD]

Extrapolate the data we have so far for covid 19 and compare it to the swine flu of 2009.

Currently over 2 million known cases compared to 130 000 deaths for covid. If we get were to get up to 700 million cases worldwide, that would be 45 million deaths. Obviously not all cases are reported or confirmed. Increase known cases by a factor of 10 but still with 130 000 deaths means 4.7 million deaths when extrapolated out. And that’s taking the low estimates for death rates in 2009.

This is worse.

[fishface]

For sure! I don’t want to downplay it too much but I still think the worldwide reaction is a little blown out of proportion.

We’re already seeing small victories though.

5% critical rate down to 4%.
Of the cases that had an outcome we went from 22% death to 21% and steady at 21 for a week or so now (when it was going up a percent every day or 2 for a while there).

Iran - which was the hotspot before Italy was - they’re active cases are actually in net decline
China and S Korea - net decline
Italy and Spain - finally flattening out
Germany, Switzerland and Austria - net decline
France will end the lockdown May 11th

Progress is being made on the hydroxychloroquine front.

I’m trying to find the balance between optimism and realism - it’s tough!

[BTD]

Agreed.

It may be necessary to start opening things again in short order, as other parts of the world are starting to. But the mitigation efforts thus far have allowed us to learn about the virus and medical protocols needed, as well as begin to manufacture more of the necessary supplies needed to manage the situation that will present itself (whatever it may be) when we start to ramp up again.

Like hitting a pause button to organize the paperwork before an audit.