ASPO-USAs 6th Annual Peak Oil Conference

[scm]

EDIT: updates from the conference are posted in this thread.

These graphs are from 2006.

[North Shore]

Saying that 'there is no such thing as peak oil' is a great way to avoid peering into the abyss, not liking what you see, and avoiding your complicity in it...

[. ._]

It's gonna be funny in another 200 years when we're all hunter-gatherers again. Your great-great-great-great-great grandkids are gonna think we were all assholes.

And they'll be right!

I'm having fun and don't care. Here's to you, future of mankind!

[moocow]

If you have time, go borrow Hubbert's book "Beyond Oil" from the library. It's a pretty interesting read and while I agree with his view on embracing nuclear reactors, no one seem to address how to deal with the nuclear waste properly. At this moment, bio-fuel is still in testing phase and I doubt they will come online within the next 5 to 10 years.

Saying that 'there is no such thing as peak oil' is a great way to avoid peering into the abyss, not liking what you see, and avoiding your complicity in it...

Can't agree with you more. The oils are there, just getting more difficult to get access, just look at the Gulf of Mexico. Let's face it, all the remaining oil are in places that we don't really want to deal with. To quote a CBC news story:

"That's one of the myths being perpetrated,” said South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who along with two other senators, spent Friday visiting some of the oilsands operations in northern Alberta. "It's oil I feel very comfortable Americans consuming." Graham said the oil is secure and comes from a reliable neighbour, adding that a lot of the money the U.S. gives Canada to buy its oil comes back to America in trade.

"Dirty oil and dangerous oil come from rogue regimes in the Mideast. The oil coming from Alberta in my view is not only acceptably clean, it is safe," Graham told CBC News. "Dirty to me would be oil that you buy from parts of the world where the people that sell it to you hate your guts and part of the money winds up in the hands of terrorists."

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/09/ ... -tour.html

Well let's look on the bright side, you can start practicing for the future by attending the annual Mad Max reenactment.

http://io9.com/5622316/screw-burning-ma ... eenactment

[scm]

Confirmed Speakers include:

• Dr. James Schlesinger, Former Secretary of Energy and Secretary of State
• Lawrence Rice, Rear Admiral, United States Navy
• Jeff Rubin, Author, Former Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets
• Roscoe Bartlett, (R-MD) United States House of Representatives
• Dr. Charles Schlumberger, FRAeS, The World Bank
• Chris Skrebowski, Energy Institute, London
• Dr. Robert Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, MISI
• Charles Maxwell, Senior Energy Analyst, Weeden & Co
• Arthur Berman, Geological Consultant, Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc., The Oil Drum
• Dr. Roger Bezdek, President, Management Information Services, Inc.
• Michael Klare, Professor, Hampshire College
• Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics, Uppsala University, Sweden
• Dr. Chris Martenson, Founder, "The Crash Course"
• Tyson Slocum, Director, Public Citizen's Energy Program
• David Fridley, Deputy, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
• Jeremy Gilbert, Managing Director, Barrelmore Ltd
• André Angelantoni, Founder, Post Peak Living
• Sharon Astyk, Writer, ASPO-USA
• Terry Backer, (R-CT) State Representative of Connecticut
• Jim Baldauf, Co-founder, ASPO-USA
• Jeffrey Brown, Independent Petroleum Geologist
• Dr. Jonathan Callahan, President, Mazama Science
• Eric Chenoweth, Morningstar
• Debbie Cook, The Oil Drum, Post Carbon Institute
• Daniel Davis, Lt. Colonel, United States Army
• Lily Donge, Manager, Calvert Asset Management Co.
• Nicole Foss, The Automatic Earth
• John Michael Greer, Author The Archdruid Report
• Jim Hansen, Financial Consultant, Ravenna Capital Management
• Kevin Hansen, Financial Consultant, Ravenna Capital Management
• Gregor MacDonald, Author, Gregor.us
• David Murphy, The Oil Drum, EROI Institute, SUNY-ESF
• Dr. Tad Patzek, Professor, The University of Texas at Austin
• Anthony Perl, Professor, Simon Fraser University
• Dave Room, Co-founder, Bay Localize
• Dr. David Rutledge, Professor, California Institute of Technology
• Dr. David Summers, Missouri University of Science & Technology, The Oil Drum
• Jason Stevens, Morningstar
• Ron Swenson, CEO, ElectroRoof
• Gail Tverberg, The Oil Drum
• Jeff Vail, Jeff Vail LLC, The Oil Drum
• Richard Vodra, Spire Investment Partners
• Tom Whipple, ASPO-USA
• Ken Zweibel, The George Washington University Solar Institute

This is going to be very interesting. The implications of the end of cheap oil extend far beyond aviation.

[v6g]

Interesting to see a few people in aviation finally starting to "get it".

[Geko]

Interesting to see a few people in aviation finally starting to "get it".

[JakeYYZ]

Imagine a situation wherein the men in the world were told that there was a thing called Peak Vagina. That in a certain number of years, the supply of easily-obtained, high-quality Vagina would diminish, until the point was reached wherein Vagina was still available, but it was increasingly hard to locate, difficult to exploit, and of a far lesser quality than the Vagina of the Abundant Vagina days. Additionally, that they had several choices:

Start becoming Vagina Efficient...using Vagina only when needed, using less, finding clever ways of doing without.
Start developing Alternative Vagina...possibly Artificial Vagina augmented by the appropriate stimuli of porn and drugs.
Start cultivating an appreciation of Anus.

Or they could continue to recklessly exploit Abundant Vagina for as long as possible, and then figure out What the Feck To Do when IT ran out.
When the time comes, given all the tax incentives that will be thrown in the direction of alternative Vagina, I have full confidence the world will not return to the nightmare before Vagina.
Same goes for oil.
(done in 7 TJ)

[Siddley Hawker]

On another thread Foggy was proposed as a candidate for Prime Minister. I nominate Jake as his Minister of Natural Resources.

[BibleMonkey]

On another thread Foggy was proposed as a candidate for Prime Minister. I nominate Jake as his Minister of Natural Resources.

Seconded!

I knew it was happening , didn't know what to really call the point that I reached-

in a certain number of years, the supply of easily-obtained, high-quality Vagina would diminish

- but thanks to the Minister of Natural Resources, I realize now that I've hit PV .

[Canuck223]

When the revolution happens, and I'm dictator for life.....

Nuclear power is the future, but we've gotten off the rails. Legitimate safety concern and over blown hysteria over proliferation have clouded our progress. We've accepted a truly stupid system of fuel management, and essentially stalled all development for the last 30 years.

Currently, our strategy for dealing with spent nuclear fuel is to simply store the rods, forever. The problem of course is only about 4% of the mass is actually waste. If the cladding was recycled, and the spent fuel reprocessed, we could reduce the volume of waste and greatly increase the lifespan of the fuel.

Two problems for a made in Canada solution is we don't currently have a reprocessing and enriching infrastructure, nor do we have many reactors that require enriched fuel. To make the most efficient use of fissile material, it makes a lot of sense to simply re-use fuel rods in reactors that require progressively lower levels of enrichment, and where possible seed the reactors with fertile material that can be converted into fissile material.

What I'd love to see is a multi layered system. One that combines reactor types using a common fuel bundle. One that reduces the physical handling of the fuel bundles where possible. One that balances high burn up rates and fuel breeding to reduce the amount of new uranium needed. One that allows for a high level of recycling of fuel bundle cladding. One that uses a well thought out reprocessing system to extend fuel life and minimize the volume of fission byproducts. One that minimizes the environmental impact of reprocessing.

Can it be done? It would take some strong willpower and deep pockets. However, since we are not going to get rid of Nuclear power until something more viable appears, we need to do some deep thinking to avoid spending more in the long run.
We need a long term plan.

[scm]

The main points from day one...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7024
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7027

Jeff Brown: Saudi Arabia, until recently the largest exporter (now behind Russia), will stop exporting before 2030. Looking at the top 5 exporting nations, who collectively supply 50% of the imported oil around the world, he anticipates that they will have shipped half of their remaining export volume in two years. There are now only 33 countries that produce more than 100,000 bd. And, for these, production is sensibly flat over the past five years, while consumption has risen from 16 to 17.5% of production. While unconventional oil is supposed to be a positive contributor in the future, he noted that when Canada and Venezuela are combined, production is actually falling. The worrying factor is the combination of China and India, who have increased imports from 11.3% of the total in 2005, to 17.1% in 2009. If this continues they will consume 25% of global oil exports by 2015, which will significantly reduce the amount available to the rest of us."

Dave Murphy -noted that national economies are tied to the consumption of oil (which is then tied to price) rather than to oil price itself. The variation between expansion (up 2%) and recession (down 2%) is not great, though it is the provision of cheap fuel that has funded international growth. Every recession since 1970 has been preceded by an oil price spike. We are now in an era where small fluctuations in flow (on the order of 1 – 2 mbd) can have a significant impact on price and economic stability.

United States Joint Forces Command JOE Report
http://www.peakoil.net/files/JOE2010.pdf

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD"

Congressman Bartlett - used the report to emphasize that China will not reach the levels of oil production anticipated in the general community by 2030. He noted that, within a decade, it is likely that Iran will be an oil importer. He noted that OPEC with 75% of the remaining reserves, has 42% of existing production; the Former Soviet Union with 12.7% of the reserves has 16.8% of present global production; and the US, with 2% of the reserves, has 8% of the production.

China has already in place a “Post Peak Oil” strategy. It includes conservation, domestic supply, diversification, environmental impact issues, and international cooperation. It already buys oil from all over the world, including that still in the ground, and has a major blue water navy under construction to protect those interests. They are graduating seven times as many engineers as we are. They know you cannot rebuild exhausted reserves

Dr Michael Klare - discussed the problem of energy security and conflict. He noted that we are in an intense, unrecognized, struggle for power and wealth. The most recent significant change in this has been that China has become the #1 consumer of energy in the world. The USA led for the last 100 years

"Tom Whipple noted that ASPO-USA has changed its directors and is moving to Washington D.C. just so that it can have more influence, but it was Congressman Bartlett who realistically noted that we will need a major crisis for that to happen."

[North Shore]

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD"

The very definition of 'Peak Oil' methinks..

Standing by for that pilot shortage....

[scm]

interesting bits

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7030
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7035

Jeff Rubin - pointed out that although the deepest recession since the second world war has been blamed on the housing bubble and the financial problems of the American banking system, the problem was really global in nature, and it is not difficult to show the correlation with energy prices.

Chris Martenson talked about looking at the economy as a straight highway, and then hitting a bend. Money is loaned into existence and credit (and thus debt) has increased over time. Since 1970 it has doubled five times. Money and energy have been tied, but while money must continue to grow, energy cannot. He sees the problems coming in the 2014-2015 time frame when Peak Oil will be recognized and while growth may continue, prosperity may not

Robert Hirsch - noted that the economy depends on energy, not the other way around. Further we should expect that the general public will still be surprised when oil supplies start to decline in the next 2 – 5 years. From then they will continue to decline for at least a decade, until alternate sources of fuel become sufficiently available
Looking at individual response, we should all expect to be impacted, and because of the lack of political ability to resolve the issue (or even to address it yet) we should expect that the result will be very similar to the oil shortages of the 70s. There was a degree of panic – this will happen again. This time, however, there will be no North Sea or North Slope to come to the rescue. Nor can the oil taps be opened wider to remediate the problems
He reminded us that this is a liquid fuels problem, while most renewables (wind and solar and hydro) deal with the electricity supply, which is not helpful to the crisis. We also have enough food. The issue is in transportation where we need a substitute for oil.

[North Shore]

We also have enough food. The issue is in transportation where we need a substitute for oil.

Except for the fact that we need Natural Gas to make fertiliser to make crops grow better, and it is currently being misused to boil water to get oil from sand. And, the greatest productivity increases in food production came about as a result of farm mechanization - all of which needs oil..

[v6g]

The good news is I needn't bother getting that cracked windshield replaced on my car then.

[BibleMonkey]

We also have enough food. The issue is in transportation where we need a substitute for oil.

Except for the fact that we need Natural Gas to make fertiliser to make crops grow better, and it is currently being misused to boil water to get oil from sand. And, the greatest productivity increases in food production came about as a result of farm mechanization - all of which needs oil..

While you're right about the stupidity of burning a clean fuel ( natural gas ) to increase the mostly exported-at -minimal- financial -benefit dirty fuel ( oilsands, which also evade more royalties ), most of our natural gas is already gone- Alberta has about an 8 year of established natural gas reserve remaining—and is exporting in direct violation of its own legislation requiring a minimum 15 years of proven supply before any can be removed from the province.

They can't stop exporting because of article 605 of NAFTA, which is an American substitute for a Canadian energy policy.

For some reason most Canadians think that Canada has hydrocarbon reserves-we don't ; the United States does-some of their oil just happens to be sitting in a political entity called "Canada".

Canada is the only oil exporting country with no energy policy-other than a trade agreement that says we cannot slow or stop the export, cannot raise the price, and are controlled by the buyer.

Under that arrangement, given our latitude, I'd say we're going to freeze first. The swimming pools in California will still be heated /powered by Canadian natural gas for a bit longer,though, I'd guess.


http://www.electrifyingtimes.com/oildeal.html

" OIL DEAL WITH U.S. COULD SEE CANADA RUNNING ON EMPTY
by Eric Reguly

In 1989, Canada lost control of its energy reserves when the Mulroney government signed the free-trade pact with the United States. Few Canadians cared about using energy sovereignty because Canada was apparently blessed with an endless supply of oil and natural gas, the tradeoff was guaranteed access to the world's biggest energy market. To the Americans, Canada would become welcome rival to OPEC.

Eleven years later, you've got to wonder whether Canada's free-trade negotiators had a clue what they signed and either answer is equally depressing.........."

The Mexicans weren't as stupid-they stroked out 605 before signing NAFTA.

[crazy_aviator]

I thought Vagina was a renewable resource,,, AND a lot of Vaginas these days are outlasting their seekers !!!

[scm]

Tidbits from day 3. I just copy and pasted from http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2 ... e-last-day
I hope pilots are giving this serious thought.

Dr. Charles Schlumberger, Principal Air Transport Specialist, Transport Division of the World Bank, pointed out that from the airline's point of view, it was the recession, and not the price of oil that was the problem. He felt this way, because he felt the airlines had pretty well hedged the price of oil. Its problem was a lack of passengers and cargo, because of the recession.

He pointed out that air transport is the catalyst for modern globalization. For example, he pointed out that without access by air, there is little chance of foreign direct investment in a country.

He also pointed out that at $80 a barrel, fuel cost exceeds personnel costs. He believes that above $80 a barrel, airlines cannot be profitable.

Regarding fuel efficiency, there have been improvements, but these are becoming smaller as the low-hanging fruit have already been found. Some additional changes may be difficult. For example, if changes are made that cause the size of engines to be bigger, these might necessitate completely redesigning the aircraft. One possibility is to use "Air Ships" or dirigibles for moving freight long distances.

Biofuels are being investigated, but progress is slow--perhaps 1% replacement of fuel by 2015. One issue is the huge land area that would be required. According to his calculations, algae would require the least land area, but even so algae would require an area the size of Ireland to replace existing airline fuel.

At this point, it looks like there is a possibility that airline use will need to be significantly scaled back, but if this happens, there will likely be big social and political impacts.

Rick Munroe brought the debate into the larger picture of the Peak fuel debate. Ho pointed out the considerable difference between the military view of the coming crisis, in contrast with the more complacent civilian government point of view. The Energy Bulletin lists over 40 papers from military groups that have highlighted the coming problems of fuel availability. In contrast it was only in 2008 that the IEA began to express similar concerns. Yet, as a paper in 2009 from the war college noted, while these strategic shocks are predictable, they are either not prepared for, or inadequately addressed. The plans that do exist are over 30 years old, dating from the last time we had such a event.
On July 25th the Energy Bulletin carried a review of the Peak Oil situation by the German military. The response to the crisis, because of this lack of preparation, will not be stable, but chaotic. This instability will increase with time as economies shrink. The result will be unprecedented in its severity
He pointed out that, by and large, these reviews are not individual opinions, but rather the consensus of qualified analysts and it defines a comprehensive domestic external threat to the point that peak oil can be seen as a weapon of mass destruction. In earlier exercises it was projected that if 4% of the world supply was removed from the market then prices would triple.

Yet with all this information available he was unable to find any significant interest in the topic either in Canada or the United States. There is no planning for the impact of oil shortage on the agricultural production of either country, and the GAO noted that planning on the topic ceased about 20 years ago. It is only, apparently, in the UK that plans for a Liquid Fuel Emergency exist. And yet a fuel crisis will, in very short time, transform into also being a food crisis. The problem is, in part, that while the response of many in government is to ration by price, but to give farmers priority, most operate on the margin and a trebling of fuel prices would put them out of business. It is a complex problem, and thus no-one wishes to address it..

[Expat]

I thought Vagina was a renewable resource,,, AND a lot of Vaginas these days are outlasting their seekers !!!

Not in China!

[Expat]

Alternative energy is here...


HMS Astute:

It is 97m long, the equivalent of 10 London buses, and weighs 7,400 tonnes compared with the 5,000 tonnes managed by its predecessor, the Trafalgar class

The nuclear reactor which drives the propulsion system is roughly the size of a dustbin but will last the 30-year life of the boat without needing to be replaced.

That system could be used in a large plane...

[moocow]

Yeah but how big and how heavy is the shielding?

[Expat]

Yeah but how big and how heavy is the shielding?

Probably not heavier than the 216,000 liters of fuel of a 747-400

[moocow]

Wouldn't the continuous circulation of ice cold water help regulate the sub reactor. Apparently Toshiba is making a micro nuclear reactor that can be buried into the ground, but a few green blogs had branded as a hoax.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/03/23/tosh ... all-scale/

[co-joe]

Imagine a situation wherein the men in the world were told that there was a thing called Peak Vagina. ...
(done in 7 TJ)

I think there is a place that has seen "peak vagina". China. There's a trend towards aborting female babies. In my opinion this can lead to only one thing...war. Well and maybe the other 3 as well.