Strobes wrote:Boreas wrote:Are we off oil yet? NO!? Well, lets do that!
Muslim extremism will die-down within one or two generation. The Middle East will be no different than SS Africa - not great, but much better.
Because of that, living conditions in the ME will go lower, and extremism will actually rise - "angry poor people looking for someone to blame". Kinda like Oct 19.
Russia will never become the superpower it was in the 20th century again in our lifetimes. Demographics, commodity extraction-based economy in a secular bear commodity market. I'm more worried about the US when it's society collapses in the next decades.
I'm a couple rums in but let me just add this...
The borders that define the Middle East were drawn by imperial Britain, France, and Italy. They purposely divided religions and cultures in order to maintain the upper hand. Now that imperialism is long gone what we'll witness over the next few decades is a total readjustment of the ME. Trying to enforce these imperialistic borders could very well be counter productive in the long run and only lead to more sectarian violence and civil wars.
Provided the US electorate vote for the right individuals, the US will not collapse. I'm an optimist but the good old USofA will not just fold like a cheap tent. Do I see some major political reforms occurring, for sure. If either outsiders (Trump or Sanders) get elected, it will be a game changer for the US electoral system. But I do not see a full scale collapse.
Regarding Russia, did you know that with the collapse of the USSR,
25 million Russian civilians were stateless in the lost eastern block territories? So when Putin talks about protecting Russian populations in foreign countries (ie Ukraine) it's a legitimate concern. Since the collapse, Russia has been treated like a drunken disaster of a country by the western powers. NATO should have been dissolved at the end of the Cold War but instead they've expanded right up to Russia's borders. The latest actions by Russia is their attempt to tell the world that they remain relevant and that their sphere of influence should be respected. If Mexico became a failed state, and Russia was some how peddling influence with anti-US rebels, how do you think the USA would react? I imagine their actions would mirror those of Russia's right now.
What's interesting now is Turkey (NATO member state) downing a Russian fighter jet. How will the west respond? I'm not a huge fan of Trudeau's forgein policy but I'm glad he did not pick sides in the immediate fallout.
