Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

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pianokeys
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Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#1 Post by pianokeys » Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:35 am

Oh thank GOD!! Its only a matter of time before someone would lay the hammer down on this victim.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ ... -1.3700742
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#2 Post by Realitychex » Sun Aug 07, 2016 5:33 pm

The larger question is why is New Leaf so threatened by this one individual that they feel the need to sue him to shut him up?

If New Leaf were doing as well as they claim, they'd ignore the squeaky wheel. All he's asking for is a $3m bond to ensure stranded passengers can get home when the venture fails.

$3m is nothing in the airline business. if New Leaf had it, they should simply post it to eliminate the issue and show customers they actually have some cash. The fact that they haven't tells you all you need to know.

Another 7 days and the majority of their new bookings wil fall into the post Labor Day window when pure leisure bookings collapse.

They need about $150k in daily revenue to break even. It's not hard to see a scenario where they are losing $350k a week and a run rate of about $18m a year. I doubt the folks in Minneapolis who are running the show will tolerate that for long.

Any one want to add to the list of new entrant sched airlines that pulled the chute in September when their advance bookings cratered?

Canada 3000
Vistajet
Greyhound
CanJet 2.0.

8)
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#3 Post by '97 Tercel » Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:24 pm

:smt015

We get you have a lot of knowledge of the industry, but your posts are just the same stuff over and over and over and over and over......
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#4 Post by Realitychex » Sun Aug 07, 2016 7:31 pm

'97 Tercel wrote::smt015

We get you have a lot of knowledge of the industry, but your posts are just the same stuff over and over and over and over and over......
Why don't you post something new then?

How about New Leaf's asl, raw seats generated per week or weekly block hours generated?

:lol:
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#5 Post by JTrain » Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:38 pm

Realitychex wrote:The larger question is why is New Leaf so threatened by this one individual that they feel the need to sue him to shut him up?

If New Leaf were doing as well as they claim, they'd ignore the squeaky wheel. All he's asking for is a $3m bond to ensure stranded passengers can get home when the venture fails.

$3m is nothing in the airline business. if New Leaf had it, they should simply post it to eliminate the issue and show customers they actually have some cash. The fact that they haven't tells you all you need to know.

Another 7 days and the majority of their new bookings wil fall into the post Labor Day window when pure leisure bookings collapse.

They need about $150k in daily revenue to break even. It's not hard to see a scenario where they are losing $350k a week and a run rate of about $18m a year. I doubt the folks in Minneapolis who are running the show will tolerate that for long.

Any one want to add to the list of new entrant sched airlines that pulled the chute in September when their advance bookings cratered?

Canada 3000
Vistajet
Greyhound
CanJet 2.0.

8)
FWIW, CanJet 2.0 pulled the plug in September 2006.

Canada 3000's demise was in November 2001, with 9/11 playing a significant part as bookings dropped off a cliff.

Greyhound Air and Vista Jet's end came in September 1997.

Post Labour Day activity will be indeed interesting to watch.
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#6 Post by '97 Tercel » Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:57 am

Realitychex wrote:
'97 Tercel wrote::smt015

We get you have a lot of knowledge of the industry, but your posts are just the same stuff over and over and over and over and over......
Why don't you post something new then?

How about New Leaf's asl, raw seats generated per week or weekly block hours generated?

:lol:

Perfect. I wanted to see just one of your posts that didn't end with the smug, sunglassed emoticon. Thank you.
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#7 Post by Realitychex » Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:49 am

Why get into an intelligent debate over the relative merits of New Leaf's soon to be shortlived scheme when it's more fun to debate the merits of emoticons? :lol:

I'm still waiting on your basic sched analysis, without which, any discussion of New Leaf's prospects are a waste of time.

Here's a starting point for you.

8,022,768 asm's per week.

Amongst the countless absurd claims in the New Leaf plan, (and they pile up like road kill on the 401), I thought this one was particularly amusing:

"By eschewing different seating classes for a single economy class configured at the maximum seating density, NewLeaf will have more seats per respective aircraft than current Canadian competitor, (149 seats versus 136 for the same aircraft type).These larger aircraft with greater seating density will yield lower cost per available seat miles (CASM) than their competitors’ yield and high aircraft utilization. From this, NewLeaf should realise an 8% cost advantage"

Can someone explain to me how a 156 seat, maintenance pig B737-400 that burns at least 15% more fuel per hour is lower cost that a couple of year old 168 seat 737-800? Were that the case, every ULCC on the planet would be operating the 737-400. Last I checked, that wasn't the case. They can't get rid of them fast enough.

"New Leaf will operate with lower human resources costs than traditional airlines because of lower base salaries and aircraft that have less cabin staff and more seating than conventional airlines. This will be enhanced by their flexible human resources deployment strategy that will achieve greater utilization".

Does anyone else see a rather large problem with this statement?

"Load Factor was established for projection purposes at 60% versus an industry standard of approximately 80%. The breakeven point on Load Factor for these projections was 52%".

Seriously? Spirit's 2Q BELF was 69.9%. And an 11% operating margin in year one with 3 aircraft rising to 18.6% with 15 aircraft in year 3? Did anyone do a reality check on how long it took WJ to reach 15 aircraft, (and lest anyone forget, WJ was verifably profitable every step of the way in that process), or what happened to SG when they tried to grow too quickly?

New Leaf's own P&L projects an average base fare of $180 in their first year with an additional $63.26 of ancilliary revenue per passenger for a total one way fare of $243.26.

Attention New Leaf brain trust: WestJet's average one way fare was $149.58 last quarter with an average asl 49 miles longer than yours.

Those folks at New Leaf, even after handing over margin to their ACMI operators, and every one else with their hand out, must really know a thing or two about how to run a ULCC.

Congratulations to the 3rd year B Comm student who wrote the document. It is one of the finest pieces of crapmanship I've ever seen in 22 years in the start up business. Any idiot who invested in the venture deserves to lose every last nickel.

:lol:
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#8 Post by flyinhigh » Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:08 am

I due find it funny how there is currently 1 ULCC operating, and potentially 2 more to come, and every body on here says there F%*KED.

The fact that there is this much interest being invested into these ventures, by folks far smarter than you or I (if you were smarter, you wouldn't be here posting crap) than there is probably a form of market for this.

Now with that, do I believe New Leaf will last? Nope, not with the way they are trying to go about it.
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#9 Post by Realitychex » Tue Aug 09, 2016 12:32 pm

flyinhigh wrote:I due find it funny how there is currently 1 ULCC operating, and potentially 2 more to come, and every body on here says there F%*KED.

The fact that there is this much interest being invested into these ventures, by folks far smarter than you or I (if you were smarter, you wouldn't be here posting crap) than there is probably a form of market for this.

Now with that, do I believe New Leaf will last? Nope, not with the way they are trying to go about it.

If there was interest in these ventures, they would have raised all their capital long ago and all would be operating. Right now, we have one trying to do it on a shoe string budget with 1/3 or less the capital WJ had 20+ years ago.

WJ raised $8m 20 years ago in 30 days and another $20m in a six week period over the holiday season in 1995-1996. From the day the idea was dreamt up to generating the first RPMs was 18 months. How long have these guys been at it?

I'm involved in a 100% Canadian private equity venture that raised c$42m in a week about 6 weeks ago. There's lots of money out there if you have a good plan and a solid path to generate good returns for investors.

Investors vote with their pocketbooks. These ULCC ventures are generating a lot of media, (who doesn't want to dream about $79 fares across the country, no matter how hare brained the scheme is?), but no one is investing any real capital.

The bottom line is always the bottom line.

:wink:
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#10 Post by Realitychex » Tue Aug 09, 2016 3:39 pm

Canada 3000's demise was in November 2001, with 9/11 playing a significant part as bookings dropped off a cliff.

If one is to believe the memo from John Lecky to the C3000 Board dated Oct 23 2001, C3000's problems were spiraling out of control long before 9/11 or Tango.

To quote the late Mr Lecky:

"The first blows were the unrecorded liabilities of Royal Aviation which soaked up our cash. We were duped and I was responsible. When I realized that following his fraud, "Mr White" was not managing our domestic loads and prices as defined in his job description, I sacked him. (He had previously not signed the employment contract which I gave him in March and the day our joint flying program began (May 1st), he went to Italy on holiday."

That was in May 2001, long before 9/11.

8)
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Re: Gabor Lukacs being sued by NewLeaf

#11 Post by Realitychex » Fri Aug 19, 2016 11:36 am

Oops.

New Leaf is now claiming to be an "airline" again and are making statements indicative of their having "custody and control" of the aircraft.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ ... 61?cmp=rss

That won't help their arguments.

8)
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