When will the movement slow down or stop?

[CRJ-705]

obviously there is a ton of hiring going on right now and just curious when do you predict it will slow down or stop?

[goingnowherefast]

Hope I am wrong, but I predict Trump will f#$k everything up and this current crazy train will end. Its not going to stop as retirements are going to continue regardless.

To answer the when, I say 2 years before certain economic policies start to slow down the North American economies.

[EPR]

1 year after certain economic policies take effect.

[pilotguy2017]

Lol omg you think it's gonna slow down? It's just the start and what's even more hilarious is these airlines (let's just say teal and big red) seem to think there is an endless supply of ATPL holders waiting to work for peanuts. Well I guess they will learn taking the pilots out of hiring and replacing them with "HR people". Sit back and watch it's gonna get fun.

[fish4life]

Housing market crash, we are on the brink of one and once it happens we will be close to 9/11 levels

[skypirate88]

I think you will be challenged to find agreement on when it will end. My advice, get a seat you would be happy to sit in, and get enough seniority to keep it for when it all stops.

[ditar]

It's a 7 year cycle. 2001, 2008, 2015...

[7ECA]

It's a 7 year cycle. 2001, 2008, 2015...

I'd say she's a bit more frequent that that, although there have been longer periods of calm in some cases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... ion_onward

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e ... th_century

Of course, any burble will hit aviation hard and fast. The previous advice is essential, you better be happy where you are right now (and secure there as well), because when the music stops - you're SOL.

[Ancient]

I'd actually advise the opposite. Now is the time to take risk. To give up that 65-80k job flying a Kingair, Metro, 1900, for that 35-40k job at Encore, Jazz, Sky.

Losing $3000 a month off your income is going to be a shock. That combined with having to live somewhere much more expensive means you are probably going to be losing money every month. But now is the time where you are least likely to be stuck in that job. Upgrades are going to be way quicker than what we're used to. It's still a risk. As others have mentioned the economy can tank at any moment and that will throw a wrench in things regardless of how many pilots are retiring or going to the majors.

I hope you saved up. Get on kijiji to sell that snowmobile, quad, boat, and truck today. Just suck it up. 10 years from now you don't want to be seeing your colleagues making Captain at AC while you're on your way to the reserves for the millionth time in the winter that now seems to last 11 months a year.

[goingnowherefast]

With Trump in the White House, I say that's a pretty big risk to take. A year ago, that risk was much lower and a better time to take the pay cut if big jets is your goal.

With the present political/economic climate, I'd be very hesitant to leave a secure job with decent seniority to join the bottom ranks elsewhere. You are risking going from 60 grand to 38 grand to 0.

[mantogasrsrwy]

You keep going on about Trump in the White House but Zoolander in Parliament is going to be a much bigger detriment to the economy. Just look at Ontario if you want to see what's in store for the country.

[Inverted2]

You keep going on about Trump in the White House but Zoolander in Parliament is going to be a much bigger detriment to the economy. Just look at Ontario if you want to see what's in story for the country.

Exactly.

[goingnowherefast]

I do see your point, but the mess in Ontario is a provincial problem started by Kathleen Wynne.
Justin Trudeau is making different problems at the federal level (massive deficit)

The Canadian economy is tied so closely to the American economy, that a few bozos in Canada can't do as much damage as one bozo in the US. What really scares me is we now have people at the top of both governments that don't know how to spell economy, never mind direct economic policy.

Much of Air Canada's recent growth is connecting US travellers internationally. If those travellers disappear, so will many of the openings at Air Canada. Retirements will continue so there will be some movement, but at a much slower pace.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/ ... to-pay-off

[Speedalive]

I've been curious about this too. All of my friends in the industry are talking about how great the industry is doing and how much movement there is, but all I can think is that this is the climax of hiring and it will go down fast, or another financial crisis will happen. I feel like I'll finish flight training just in time for the industry to go to s***. I hope I'm wrong and it continues to be like this indefinitely, but I can't see that being a reality.

[co-joe]

I've been curious about this too. All of my friends in the industry are talking about how great the industry is doing and how much movement there is, but all I can think is that this is the climax of hiring and it will go down fast, or another financial crisis will happen. I feel like I'll finish flight training just in time for the industry to go to s***. I hope I'm wrong and it continues to be like this indefinitely, but I can't see that being a reality.

Nothing continues indefinitely but this is by far the strongest hiring cycle I've ever seen. Seeing sub 2000 hours FO's upgrade on pressurized turboprops is literally blowing my mind. When I was an FO most captains had 4-6000 hours. If we had a strong barrel I'm not sure how companies would be able to cope. The fact that all of Alberta isn't really doing much flying at the 703 level masks just how huge demand for pilots is right now at least here.

It looks like this hiring bubble will continue for 3 years at AC, then WJ starts hitting a retirement bulge supposedly till 2023. If the barrel comes back in that period we could see drastic measures. TFW's, pilot less cockpits, maybe even wages going up...lol good joke.

[BE20 Driver]

Both Air Canada and WestJet have some pretty big expansion plans for the next few years. In our small market of Canada, nearly all hiring is driven by these two companies.

WestJet doesn't have a great deal of exposure to 'Merica and their expansion plans take them overseas. Most of AC's expansion plans have also revolved around wide body flying. It's my wild ass guess that the sudden policy changes in the US will not do much other than maybe slow the rate of hiring a little. A housing crash or 9/11 event would definitely halt hiring overnight but those events are rather hard to predict. Not long after I bought my first house in 2002, I remember people talking about a major housing correction.

I think if anything, Trump will be good for our industry in the long run. I think he'll totally eff things up for the short term. He is very pro-business and very anti-peasant. He will probably end up rolling back policies and safety at the expense of pilot salaries and working conditions. This in turn will drive more people away from this industry. Give it four years and the US industry will be screaming for anyone with two feet and a heartbeat. There was a time in around 2006 or so where US regional airlines were sponsoring pilots for green cards but you had to chase after them to make the arrangements. Maybe in 2020 you'll see things open up again because of years of bad management.

[pilotguy2017]

Don't fool yourselves, they are hurting and don't want to say it. Inside source said Encore is really struggling finding guys/gals with any good experience and the same is happening at the AC Express carriers. AC Mainline is blind to the fact that their PML this is silly and they should follow the path of American Airlines and start introducing a guaranteed job in the Mainline from the regionals to secure hiring. Just wait a few more months it's gonna get messy when AC gets the 737 and want typed drivers, lots of westjetters will go and let's see if jetlines takes off. Airlines displaying any arrogance in hiring are going to have to change their tune.

[watermeth]

music will stop when people start defaulting on their car and credit card payments, goodbye airplane tickets, welcome bus/train tickets, goodbye holidays. nobody knows when that will happen.

as for hiring, stop taking low paying jobs and in the end, salaries might increase.
don't forget the airline is in the demand position regarding your experience and your "ideal employee profil".
anyhow pilots managed to get this the other way around......

[True North]

Just wait a few more months it's gonna get messy when AC gets the 737 and want typed drivers, lots of westjetters will go and let's see if jetlines takes off. Airlines displaying any arrogance in hiring are going to have to change their tune.

You haven't been around the industry very long, have you.

[pilotguy2017]

25 years true north.....long enough for you?