Aviation in Canada 2022 and beyond- Your Predictions

Discuss topics relating to airlines.

Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, North Shore

Post Reply
playpilot
Rank 0
Rank 0
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:30 pm
Location: Winnipeg

Aviation in Canada 2022 and beyond- Your Predictions

Post by playpilot »

Please comment and make your most outlandish predictions for the Canadian Aviation industry for the next 5-10 years. I thought we could make future predictions for the industry in Canada. Maybe we can pass on some insight for those working on a CPL today, or who have just landed a first job in the north/flight instructing. Obviously we can take most of this with a grain of salt:

Encore:

More than likely will be ALPA here shortly to join Westjet. How will swoop come into play? Would you take encore over going the AC express route? What will Westjet look like in 10 years with the 787 coming?

Poter:

Any chance they will hold on to the the C Series? Is Porter for Sale? Do you smell merger?

The Three express carriers:

Jazz. Will they lose flying to rouge? What will the fleet look like in 10 years? Do you think they will shrink the fleet? Any chance they will fly the C Series? Would ACPA and the pilots give this up in a deal?

Sky. I think they have the best shot at c-series (even though it's a long shot for sure) if ACPA gives it up. Where do we see Sky as the 175 becomes older and more expensive to operate? Will they unionize?

Georgian. Will they be around in a few years? What's the future for the 1900? Will we see this aircraft in YYZ after 2020 or will Pearson push them out? What comes next for them after the RJ’s age out?

Will Canada Jetlines takeoff?

On the Cargo Side, CargoJets future how safe will they be down the road? Think they will hold on to their contract (purolator) or will they end up like KF. Any growth with Morningstar?

Transat/Sunwing- As far as I can see smooth flying at both these operators. Probably a great choice to work at either of these carriers. Of course when the economy tanks their type of flying can soften really fast.

Feel free to add anything missed! Lots of big questions remain for the future. Really curious where everyone thinks the industry will be in 10 years. Go ahead and make your modest, or most outlandish predictions for the industry.
---------- ADS -----------
 
goingnowherefast
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1947
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 9:24 am

Re: Aviation in Canada 2022 and beyond- Your Predictions

Post by goingnowherefast »

This could get interesting. Lots of hot topic issues!

WestJet:
I see Encore and WJ plugging away as usual, one list under ALPA. Unfortunately I see the company fighting against the union every step and turn this into an unnecessarily painful process.

Swoop I expect will be represented by WJPA and struggle for pilots until they eventually merge pilot groups with mainline WJ. They don't want to "rouge" part of their pilot group, so the only difference will be the colour of the paint, identical contract. Long term, I don't expect Swoop to be viable, I give them 10 years. Same with Jetlines, Flair, etc.; ULCCs won't succeed.

Porter:
YQT pilot base smells a lot like westward expansion. I see this as beginning signs of C Series flying west. Possibly even based in YQT and YOW. There's lots of land available in YQT for Porter to build their own terminal and it would be fairly central to push deep west. Eastern jet flying would be handled out of YOW.

Air Canada System:
They're running out of slots in YYZ, and the only way to continue expanding and fly more people is with bigger airplanes.
Express routes from all carriers will be up-gauged. All 1900s will be replaced by Jazz's classic dash. CRJ 100/200 will be replaced by Jazz's 705/900s and Sky's 175. Georgian/EVAS will probably go away, as they're too much bad PR for Air Canada.
Rouge and AC (with the C Series) will take a lot of Jazz and Sky routes. However the previously mentioned up-gauging of EVAS/GGN routes will mean little change in fleet size. I wouldn't be surprised if Sky replaces their fleet with CRJ900s or buys E175-E2, but that's still a long way off.
There will be a lot less movement on the PML than people have come to expect, leading to a big staffing issue at all AC regionals with the carrot dangling so far away. The next Jazz ALPA contract will look more like their old one than the current contract. There's a lot of disgruntled people hired in the past 2 years who didn't realise how short the stick was compared to the pre-2015 hires. They're getting involved with the union and pushing for change. They want the Jazz from 5 years ago they thought they were getting hired at.

Jetlines will probably fly 2 or 3 planes for a while until they run out of money, ticket prices go up and customers stop buying. Fuel costs the same no matter what you call your company and Canadian's generally don't like to be nickle-and-dime'd. "I'm not paying for my carry-on! WestJet is $10 more, I'll just book with them instead".

Transat/Sunwing will largely go unchanged.

The new flight and duty regs will continue to be delayed and delayed. Unfortunately I expect somebody will smash into the ground and be the catalyst for change. Experience is at record lows and workload is at record highs. I'm really hoping the AC SFO incident will be that catalyst, but I doubt it.
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3848
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Aviation in Canada 2022 and beyond- Your Predictions

Post by rudder »

No c-series for Porter. Ultimately, Porter Airlines will be sold by PAH. Buyer will be aligned with either AC or WJ.

WJ will focus on WB international growth. SWOOP will only last as long as the ULCC fad. No standalone ULCC will survive.

AC will continue significant WB international, Rouge NB, and RRA expansion. Only impediment to expansion is cycle of the global economy.

AC Express carriers will see no further growth. There may be a shuffling of routes and airplanes but the Express fleet will not increase. Pilot shortage will have significant impact on ability to staff Express flying. Largest aircraft operated at Express will remain 76 seat jet/78 seat prop.

Morningstar and Cargojet will remain only cargo players. Cargojet will continue fleet/route expansion.

SW and Air Transat will remain only players in dedicated packaged tour category. Both are well entrenched as wholly owned subsidiaries of vertically integrated tour companies.

The biggest challenge facing any CDN air operator over the next 5 years is the finite supply of pilot labour. AC annual hiring alone is draining the cockpits of many air carriers. Post-2022 retirement rates will make pilot supply issues even more critical. Look for ab initio style pilot recruitment to be in place at one or more carriers prior to 2025.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Post Reply

Return to “General Airline Industry Comments”