That's already here... Guys are dropping like flies and there's hardly any one to replace them with. WJ is in the precarious position of having to hire more and more OTS, at the expense of guys at Encore by turning off the light at the end of the tunnel, causing more and more to leave. There is an experience drain going on.
If I haven’t said so already, pilot retention is a major concern of mine, especially at WJE. Management has made it clear how valuable Encore is to the bottom line. If they start cancelling flights due to crew issues, profitability will decrease and we will see a response. We haven’t seen it yet but I’m sure we are closer mow than ever before.
That said, the stats don’t support your comments regarding OTS pilots at the present time. In the 3 last classes the breakdown of OTS to Encore flow is as follows:
July - 9 Encore - 9 OTS
Sept - 6 Encore - 4 OTS
Oct - 7 Encore - 5 OTS
This more than satisfies the 25% flow that is guaranteed in the encore agreement.
In the end Pilots will go where they feel the best opportunity exists for them. I have seen Encore pilots go to AC, and I have seen freshly flowed encore pilots at WJA go to Air Canada. Does this bother me? Definitely not. Go where you feel you will be happiest, or have the best career (preferably BOTH).
Best of luck in this game called aviation