Pilot shortage State side

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tbayav8er
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by tbayav8er » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:46 am

I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it happens. Given the lobbying by the airlines to the Canadian government, there are still a lot of variables. Which party is elected, etc. Also, there are bigger industries than the pilot industry that have gone to the US. If the shortage keeps going the way it is, I think the US will find a way to get us working South of the border.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by digits_ » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:55 pm

JohnnyHotRocks wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:01 pm
Mach1 wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:41 am
You will never be allowed to work in the US. Not because the US doesn't want you to work there. I don't think they really care very much, you are not even on their radar. There is a reason that Pilots are always left off things like NAFTA talks... it's that the Canadian government is being very heavily lobbied by the Canadian companies to keep you in country. Everyone knows this place would empty out of pilots if everyone could earn US pay. I mean, what are the Canadian companies going to do if that happened? Pay US wages to keep talent? Far easier to just make it difficult for you to leave.
This is 1000% correct!!!!!
I disagree. The Canadian government can't prevent pilots from leaving. If Trump wants more pilots and he allows them in the country, there is nothing that Canada can't do. How would Canada even retaliate? I doubt Trump would care.

The biggest hurdle would probably be ALPA. It is in their best interest that Canadians can not enter the US market, so salaries will have to keep going up to attract new US pilots. That's not an attack towards ALPA, that only makes sense to me.

So, we have to put our eggs into the airline-lobbying-trump basket. Will anything change? Hard to say. It could change quickly though. One tweet is all that it would take.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by North Shore » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:32 pm

Kinda makes you wonder about the dictates of supply and demand, though? I'm no economist, and I'm sure that there are lots of other variables, but were the border to open, would the flood (trickle?) of Canadian pilots serve to increase the supply enough down there that demand, and thus salaries would drop?

On another note, in reply to KAG's suggestion, I, too, have heard about the border opening since I started in 1992 - but, I've heard about the pilot shortage since then, also. One has arrived - can the other be too far behind?
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by complexintentions » Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:39 am

confusedalot wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:44 am
Could be, wouldn't be surprised.

It has happened in the past though. I seem to recall rcaf types ending up at united (or some other major) in the 60's, I think that was even after a recruiting roadshow but not sure. My US based friend actually confirmed that.

Another time was either in the late 70's or early 80's where a commuter airline called pilgrim airlines was sponsoring Canadians, but you were limited to working for them.

There was a time where nurses and doctors emigrated with no constraints.

It would be nice, but I doubt that it would ever happen.
Certain professions can still immigrate fairly easily. One sister (RN) could take her pick of multiple jobs in the US and leave tomorrow. If an industry is deemed in short supply, visa issues are extremely fast. Otherwise they don't move at all.

I've had a PR visa application in for about five years, sponsored by another sibling who is a naturalized American citizen. (I collect visas and passports as a hobby.) According to the USCIS website, they're processing applications for this category ("Petition for Alien Relative") from 2009. So, applying in 2014, about another 5 years to go, just in time to take early retirement! :lol:

Image

At the time I applied, the processing time for sponsored siblings was running about 13 years, so it's actually improved...don't hold your breath waiting for them to open the border. Quicker to marry an American. Go overseas while you wait! :mrgreen:
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by TailwheelPilot » Sat Mar 30, 2019 8:37 pm

digits_ wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:55 pm
I disagree. The Canadian government can't prevent pilots from leaving. If Trump wants more pilots and he allows them in the country, there is nothing that Canada can't do. How would Canada even retaliate? I doubt Trump would care.
Australians can get E-3 visas to work as a pilot in the US, several regionals have been hiring them for several years. Trump just needs to open the E-3 visa to Canadians (originally Australians-only I believe, but I read it had been opened to another nationality or two recently). Not a thing the Canadian airlines or government could do, if the US wanted to help their airline transport pilot shortage by importing Canadians.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by goingnowherefast » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:08 am

I wonder if ALPA has considered lobbying for this?
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by altiplano » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:20 am

goingnowherefast wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:08 am
I wonder if ALPA has considered lobbying for this?
Why would they? It puts downward pressure on US Airline salaries
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by goingnowherefast » Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:15 am

And upward pressure on Canadian pilot salaries.

Bigger market in the states means it would make little difference. Small market in Canada would make a large difference.

My guess it has more to do with negotiating capital. It would be a quick way to piss off every management team at for every ALPA pilot group in Canada.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by altiplano » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:05 am

Doesn't matter... US pilots don't want any downward pressure... they aren't looking to help us. You know, in America you help yourself.

Besides, how's that going to go with perceptions? First Canadians... then what's next... Mexicans?

Our comparatively poor salaries, while it no doubt annoys them in their positioning, barely registers... they would have been better off making their employers more competitive with supporting us adopting FAA F&DT regs.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it. But I don't see labour supporting it...

Maybe the employers will get it - but I think we are a long way off... mainline airlines will have to be cancelling flights before it happens.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by Stinky » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:45 pm




I've had a PR visa application in for about five years, sponsored by another sibling who is a naturalized American citizen. (I collect visas and passports as a hobby.) According to the USCIS website, they're processing applications for this category ("Petition for Alien Relative") from 2009. So, applying in 2014, about another 5 years to go, just in time to take early retirement! :lol:

Image

At the time I applied, the processing time for sponsored siblings was running about 13 years, so it's actually improved...don't hold your breath waiting for them to open the border. Quicker to marry an American. Go overseas while you wait! :mrgreen:
Stick with it. It took me 12 years as the son of a U.S citizen. Applied in 2001, visa became available in 2013 and then another couple of years I spent planning the move. Finally relocated to the US in about 2015.

You need to look at the visa bulletin here :

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... -2019.html

You're still looking at another 9 year wait unfortunately.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by complexintentions » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:30 am

hahah oh I don't really care...for 400 bucks it was just another iron to have in the fire. So many other opportunities for experienced pilots around the globe. In 9 years I hope to have been retired for about 4! Certainly not looking for a career at a major.

Everyone's situation is different but there are as about as many cons as pros to living/working in the US for me. Setting aside Trumpism and that ridiculous Democrat girl there are lots of financial issues. I've been careful to remain well clear of every tentacle of the IRS and FATCA thus far, keeping all my US investments non-US domiciled. A US visa would end that forever and I kind of dread it, big accounting bills if I go that route. That alone plus the immigration process are enough to put me off all things American even before one gets to um, American "culture"! :lol:

I'll probably just split my time there with somewhere else, staying for the good weather months and don't need a visa for that. If I do get the visa, "work" for fun at some job I don't really need or kick back and chill if I don't.

The wait times for visas are actually kind of hilarious! Be quicker to go in as a refugee :mrgreen:
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