Pilot shortage State side

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tbayav8er
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by tbayav8er » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:46 am

I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it happens. Given the lobbying by the airlines to the Canadian government, there are still a lot of variables. Which party is elected, etc. Also, there are bigger industries than the pilot industry that have gone to the US. If the shortage keeps going the way it is, I think the US will find a way to get us working South of the border.
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digits_
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by digits_ » Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:55 pm

JohnnyHotRocks wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:01 pm
Mach1 wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:41 am
You will never be allowed to work in the US. Not because the US doesn't want you to work there. I don't think they really care very much, you are not even on their radar. There is a reason that Pilots are always left off things like NAFTA talks... it's that the Canadian government is being very heavily lobbied by the Canadian companies to keep you in country. Everyone knows this place would empty out of pilots if everyone could earn US pay. I mean, what are the Canadian companies going to do if that happened? Pay US wages to keep talent? Far easier to just make it difficult for you to leave.
This is 1000% correct!!!!!
I disagree. The Canadian government can't prevent pilots from leaving. If Trump wants more pilots and he allows them in the country, there is nothing that Canada can't do. How would Canada even retaliate? I doubt Trump would care.

The biggest hurdle would probably be ALPA. It is in their best interest that Canadians can not enter the US market, so salaries will have to keep going up to attract new US pilots. That's not an attack towards ALPA, that only makes sense to me.

So, we have to put our eggs into the airline-lobbying-trump basket. Will anything change? Hard to say. It could change quickly though. One tweet is all that it would take.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by North Shore » Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:32 pm

Kinda makes you wonder about the dictates of supply and demand, though? I'm no economist, and I'm sure that there are lots of other variables, but were the border to open, would the flood (trickle?) of Canadian pilots serve to increase the supply enough down there that demand, and thus salaries would drop?

On another note, in reply to KAG's suggestion, I, too, have heard about the border opening since I started in 1992 - but, I've heard about the pilot shortage since then, also. One has arrived - can the other be too far behind?
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by complexintentions » Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:39 am

confusedalot wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 9:44 am
Could be, wouldn't be surprised.

It has happened in the past though. I seem to recall rcaf types ending up at united (or some other major) in the 60's, I think that was even after a recruiting roadshow but not sure. My US based friend actually confirmed that.

Another time was either in the late 70's or early 80's where a commuter airline called pilgrim airlines was sponsoring Canadians, but you were limited to working for them.

There was a time where nurses and doctors emigrated with no constraints.

It would be nice, but I doubt that it would ever happen.
Certain professions can still immigrate fairly easily. One sister (RN) could take her pick of multiple jobs in the US and leave tomorrow. If an industry is deemed in short supply, visa issues are extremely fast. Otherwise they don't move at all.

I've had a PR visa application in for about five years, sponsored by another sibling who is a naturalized American citizen. (I collect visas and passports as a hobby.) According to the USCIS website, they're processing applications for this category ("Petition for Alien Relative") from 2009. So, applying in 2014, about another 5 years to go, just in time to take early retirement! :lol:

Image

At the time I applied, the processing time for sponsored siblings was running about 13 years, so it's actually improved...don't hold your breath waiting for them to open the border. Quicker to marry an American. Go overseas while you wait! :mrgreen:
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by TailwheelPilot » Sat Mar 30, 2019 8:37 pm

digits_ wrote:
Tue Mar 26, 2019 2:55 pm
I disagree. The Canadian government can't prevent pilots from leaving. If Trump wants more pilots and he allows them in the country, there is nothing that Canada can't do. How would Canada even retaliate? I doubt Trump would care.
Australians can get E-3 visas to work as a pilot in the US, several regionals have been hiring them for several years. Trump just needs to open the E-3 visa to Canadians (originally Australians-only I believe, but I read it had been opened to another nationality or two recently). Not a thing the Canadian airlines or government could do, if the US wanted to help their airline transport pilot shortage by importing Canadians.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by goingnowherefast » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:08 am

I wonder if ALPA has considered lobbying for this?
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by altiplano » Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:20 am

goingnowherefast wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:08 am
I wonder if ALPA has considered lobbying for this?
Why would they? It puts downward pressure on US Airline salaries
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by goingnowherefast » Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:15 am

And upward pressure on Canadian pilot salaries.

Bigger market in the states means it would make little difference. Small market in Canada would make a large difference.

My guess it has more to do with negotiating capital. It would be a quick way to piss off every management team at for every ALPA pilot group in Canada.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by altiplano » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:05 am

Doesn't matter... US pilots don't want any downward pressure... they aren't looking to help us. You know, in America you help yourself.

Besides, how's that going to go with perceptions? First Canadians... then what's next... Mexicans?

Our comparatively poor salaries, while it no doubt annoys them in their positioning, barely registers... they would have been better off making their employers more competitive with supporting us adopting FAA F&DT regs.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see it. But I don't see labour supporting it...

Maybe the employers will get it - but I think we are a long way off... mainline airlines will have to be cancelling flights before it happens.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by Stinky » Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:45 pm




I've had a PR visa application in for about five years, sponsored by another sibling who is a naturalized American citizen. (I collect visas and passports as a hobby.) According to the USCIS website, they're processing applications for this category ("Petition for Alien Relative") from 2009. So, applying in 2014, about another 5 years to go, just in time to take early retirement! :lol:

Image

At the time I applied, the processing time for sponsored siblings was running about 13 years, so it's actually improved...don't hold your breath waiting for them to open the border. Quicker to marry an American. Go overseas while you wait! :mrgreen:
Stick with it. It took me 12 years as the son of a U.S citizen. Applied in 2001, visa became available in 2013 and then another couple of years I spent planning the move. Finally relocated to the US in about 2015.

You need to look at the visa bulletin here :

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel ... -2019.html

You're still looking at another 9 year wait unfortunately.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by complexintentions » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:30 am

hahah oh I don't really care...for 400 bucks it was just another iron to have in the fire. So many other opportunities for experienced pilots around the globe. In 9 years I hope to have been retired for about 4! Certainly not looking for a career at a major.

Everyone's situation is different but there are as about as many cons as pros to living/working in the US for me. Setting aside Trumpism and that ridiculous Democrat girl there are lots of financial issues. I've been careful to remain well clear of every tentacle of the IRS and FATCA thus far, keeping all my US investments non-US domiciled. A US visa would end that forever and I kind of dread it, big accounting bills if I go that route. That alone plus the immigration process are enough to put me off all things American even before one gets to um, American "culture"! :lol:

I'll probably just split my time there with somewhere else, staying for the good weather months and don't need a visa for that. If I do get the visa, "work" for fun at some job I don't really need or kick back and chill if I don't.

The wait times for visas are actually kind of hilarious! Be quicker to go in as a refugee :mrgreen:
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by MooneyPit » Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:47 am

Wow this is an interesting thread. I worked over a decade as a Yankee immigration officer. We would bang in the Canadian water bomber drivers as B-1's but that is because half the forests were on fire. Too bad the airlines don't just 1099 the pilots (IRS reference for making them independent contractors). When I worked cargo inspections, I would sometimes see these truck drivers with L-1 status roll through the border. WTF? I would call them out on it and then I would get scolded by a Supervisor. An L-1 is supposed to be for "a manager or executive coming to the USA to setup an office". So the independent truck driver declared themselves a company executive for their sole-employee company and then petitioned for L-1 status. I would send them into Immigration every time I encountered them but they always were let down the road by incompetent officers.
The pilot "shortage" may exist in the States but it is a short-term response to the ridiculous 1500 hour rule. You have old folks like me now changing careers. Aviation training programs have been exploding across the states. The Yankee pilots are there but still in training. This will all roll over in a few years when the supply of pilots balances again.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by Loner » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:10 am

MooneyPit wrote:
Tue Oct 01, 2019 5:47 am
The pilot "shortage" may exist in the States but it is a short-term response to the ridiculous 1500 hour rule. You have old folks like me now changing careers. Aviation training programs have been exploding across the states. The Yankee pilots are there but still in training. This will all roll over in a few years when the supply of pilots balances again.
I like your optimism, yet...
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by MooneyPit » Tue Oct 01, 2019 8:43 am

Well the smart thing would be for the Fed to allow US firms to get H1B or L1B or alike for professional Canadian ATP's. But they seem to screw it up badly. For example, the TN program regarding healthcare workers is quite ridiculous. Overall, the US has a serious shortage of healthcare workers but definitely NOT at the border cities. The Canadian TN Registered Nurses inundate medical facilities near the major land-border cities to the point that it is very difficult for US citizen Registered Nurses to get a job in those areas. The TN system terribly disenfranchises US citizen healthcare workers at these border cities. The employers LOVE them as they do not have to pay for the healthcare bene's for the most part as these border-city TN's commute home to Canada everyday. Most of their salary is spent on capital purchases outside of the US (mortgage, taxes, etc.) It simply transfers wealth from the US to Canada which is terrible economics. Now, the proper way would be to have an entity assign said Canadian TN Registered Nurses to work in seriously understaffed areas such as inner-cities, prisons, low-income, and tribal lands.
I dealt with a lot of H1B fraud cases too; to get an H1B application approved, the sort of work and location must have a serious shortage as certified by the US Dept of Labor. Well this is easy to overcome - the US firm files an application to hire twenty H1B computer programmers in Nome, Alaska as there is a SERIOUS shortage of computer programmers in Nome, Alaska. The US Dept of Labor does a study (Labor Condition Application) and confirms this shortage in Nome, Alaska and rubber-stamps the application. The H1B status applicant is a winner as CBP/USCIS employees don't have common sense. Well the H1B computer programmer rolls into a Port of Entry (mostly from India), gets "banged in" as an H1B, and proceeds to Sunnyvale, California for three-weeks of training that turns into three-months of training that turns into a "special situation" where they never leave Sunnyvale, California ... for years. They never make it to Nome, Alaska as such operation up there never existed. YES, this is fraud BUT there is no one investigating it. Its a real sh*tshow here.
If the US airlines were willing to spend some $$$, they could probably get something akin to the "Q visa" program that Disney bought and paid for but have it specifically for ATP's. The Australian E-3 visa miracle is nice but I'd be interested in knowing how many pilots can be supplied from Australia as temporary and non-immigrant pilots versus Canada.Its quite embarrassing that the US gave preference to the Australians but then again I just remembered that Trudeau rubbed DJT the wrong way.

One thing that I think we can all agree on is that it would be a real shame, a national disgrace, if a Canadian citizen was disenfranchised from employment in Canada (or a US citizen in the US) because a foreign national is in the way. The spirit of these temporary-worker programs is to fill temporary gaps for a temporary period of time. The end result, from my point of view as a former immigration officer, is that the native citizens get the raw end of the deal and these specialized temporary workers never leave.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by JohnnyHotRocks » Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:27 am

E3 visa was around long before Trump/Trudeau.
And you can bet that the pilot unions will fight tooth and nail against the border opening up to Canadians. They don’t want us coming in and doing the job for less (think Sunwing TFW fiasco)
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by MooneyPit » Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:39 am

Indeed; it was a post-9/11 action from the Bush administration to entice the Aussies to join in the fun (akin to the US allowing commercial Canadian beef to enter the USA during the BSE outbreak; no regards to public safety!). Even then, I doubt Chretien or Martin could have lured the Bush administration to opening the pilot path as the air travel industry was in shambles. When the E-3 program was created it was definitely in a time where they never knew that there would be a pilot shortage. How many people live in AU versus CA? About Half? Anyone know if there is a pilot shortage in AU? Well, the Trump administration sure does not care for unions so maybe something will come out of this for the USA's best ally and trade partner around. Especially if the shortage is crippling the airlines here.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by Dry Guy » Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:16 am

United announced they plan to hire 10000 pilots over the next 10 years.
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by MooneyPit » Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:47 am

1,000 pilots a year for ten years is certainly a lot. But how many young US citizen candidates are in the pool right now racking up their hours and are eager to move up? The easy way to throw water on the fire are these temporary non-immigrant visa programs. ALPA will certainly have the fight of its life as Trump will be around until 2024. By then there definitely could be sweeping changes that they cannot fight (my union is losing BAD right now). This can happen overnight with the proverbial "signature of a pen". I'll be up front and say that I am a "pro union" as I have worked government jobs for my entire adult life and have been beaten up too many times by rogue and worthless managers (that seem to get worse by the day). On the other hand, I am a free-market conservative that supports minimal business regulations. To find the balance of pilot staffing is the job of the marketplace; not forced government intervention and restriction. I will contact my US Representative (Republican) and see if he would support adding "Professional Pilot" to be designated as a specialized career field in regards to non-immigrants. I will also try my two Senators (Dem) but they are both bought and paid for by the Unions here but just maybe they will listen. I'm from a union stronghold State though. Allowing more Canadian professional pilots will allow airlines to increase volume thus employ hundreds of more US Citizens in other positions. It is my understanding that one Part 121 transport turbine aircraft requires at least 15 pilots? Just think about how many support staff are required, on average, per aircraft. This was my pro-H1B argument (believe it or not) to add more annual slots. Bring in more smart people to fill (actual) gaps that will make $$$,$$$ and then pay U.S. taxes and spend it on capital purchases here. When the Indian computer programmers come here, they actually do significantly contribute to the economy. They may bring in their parents and cousins, etc. but almost all of them enter the work force and pay taxes and become a cog in the gears economic growth of the States. I digress...
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by yycflyguy » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:54 am

Great posts MooneyPit. I agree with everything you've said.
Allowing more Canadian professional pilots will allow airlines to increase volume thus employ hundreds of more US Citizens in other positions. It is my understanding that one Part 121 transport turbine aircraft requires at least 15 pilots? Just think about how many support staff are required, on average, per aircraft.
Don't forget the shareholders of major 121 operators. Their dividend and stock performance will suffer if they can't continue growing. Oh, the humanity!!
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Re: Pilot shortage State side

Post by vermont » Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:16 pm

C-GGGQ wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:52 am
Ah well, I suppose you can make anything look all sunshine and rainbows on a website/ social media page
Hell, georgian started giving up their routes and still had hiring ads here
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