Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

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shawnthesheep
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Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

Post by shawnthesheep » Sun Aug 18, 2019 11:55 pm

Does anyone have any insight on how many the regionals are hiring and what the pace is looking for the future?

Will this so called "shortage" come to an end with the influx of FOs?

I was reading this forum and saw the following numbers... of FO hires

Jazz - 2019: 250 (Mostly GGN?) 2020: 300 2021: ?

Encore - 2019: 160 2020: ? 2021: ?

Porter - Unknown for all 3 years

Sky Regional - Unknown for all 3 years
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Re: Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

Post by Rowdy » Tue Aug 20, 2019 11:24 am

I think thats close to the numbers for Jazz, although I believe we are seeing probably around 100-150 come over from GGN. So that leaves 100 off the street for 2019. New hire course every 3 weeks is what I've heard and seen thus far. KP is probably more accurate with those numbers..

There are published numbers for retirements. Which is the bare bones here for what will be hired beyond the loss of crews to AC and overseas. This is comprised of pilots reaching age 63 and 65 respectively for that year. 43 in 2019. 43 potential retirements in 2020. 2021 sees 80. 2022 with 73 and 2023 with 98. 104 in 2024 and 102 in 2025. Thats over 500 people retiring between now and 2025! Not to mention those that will go early. Some will leave anywhere from age 59 and onward..

Think about the benefits to you as someone hired today intending to stay at Jazz. In the next 5 years. FIVE HUNDRED senior pilots are gone. We have a list comprised of between 1500 and 1700 (with the GGN uptake). AND AC plans to take 200-300 from us per year for the next 2-3 years. Meaning you will be in the top 1/3rd of the company within 5 years. In a system thats seniority based for vacation and scheduling, thats phenomenal. Of course barring any crisis in the industry.

If only the regulator still published the number of CPL's and ATPLs issued.. we'd have a good idea on what the workforce was going to look like from a supply side. I'm guessing it's just not enough, as many of the flight schools are producing students/candidates for overseas operations.

My guess? this is just the tip of the iceberg.
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Re: Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

Post by Inverted2 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:33 pm

I think your numbers are a bit overly optimistic. Although 500 retirements at Jazz in the next 5 years would be nice, I think it will be less than half that. The retirement numbers are never accurate from the list due to some taking the ERP.

Here’s the #s I got from the alpa retirement section:
Pilots reaching 65:

2019 - 9
2020 - 15
2021 - 34
2022 - 28
2023 - 46
2024 - 45
2025 - 52
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Re: Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

Post by Rowdy » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Inverted2 wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:33 pm
I think your numbers are a bit overly optimistic. Although 500 retirements at Jazz in the next 5 years would be nice, I think it will be less than half that. The retirement numbers are never accurate from the list due to some taking the ERP.

Here’s the #s I got from the alpa retirement section:
Pilots reaching 65:

2019 - 9
2020 - 15
2021 - 34
2022 - 28
2023 - 46
2024 - 45
2025 - 52
You are right, I simply added the two figures together, forgetting that, duh, that would change the later years numbers.

Still +230 mandatory retirements.

That list is predicated on retirement at age 65 though. I think we can both agree that most will take the ERP at 63. Some will go earlier.
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Re: Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

Post by Warden » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:02 pm

Inverted2 wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:33 pm
I think your numbers are a bit overly optimistic. Although 500 retirements at Jazz in the next 5 years would be nice, I think it will be less than half that. The retirement numbers are never accurate from the list due to some taking the ERP.

Here’s the #s I got from the alpa retirement section:
Pilots reaching 65:

2019 - 9
2020 - 15
2021 - 34
2022 - 28
2023 - 46
2024 - 45
2025 - 52
AC just posted a bid with over 800 vacancies. That means 480+ pilots will be coming from Jazz. They have been doing a pretty good job lately keeping with the 60% and word out of the training department is they have been very happy with ex Jazz pilots.

Those 800 vacancies are needed now. If AC could fill them tomorrow, they would. So take the 200 odd retirements at Jazz from now to 2025 and add the 480 and that 500 number doesn't seem so crazy.

If you stick around at Jazz you will be in a pretty nice spot in a few years.
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Re: Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

Post by Inverted2 » Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:16 am

Warden wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:02 pm
Inverted2 wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:33 pm
I think your numbers are a bit overly optimistic. Although 500 retirements at Jazz in the next 5 years would be nice, I think it will be less than half that. The retirement numbers are never accurate from the list due to some taking the ERP.

Here’s the #s I got from the alpa retirement section:
Pilots reaching 65:

2019 - 9
2020 - 15
2021 - 34
2022 - 28
2023 - 46
2024 - 45
2025 - 52
AC just posted a bid with over 800 vacancies. That means 480+ pilots will be coming from Jazz. They have been doing a pretty good job lately keeping with the 60% and word out of the training department is they have been very happy with ex Jazz pilots.

Those 800 vacancies are needed now. If AC could fill them tomorrow, they would. So take the 200 odd retirements at Jazz from now to 2025 and add the 480 and that 500 number doesn't seem so crazy.

If you stick around at Jazz you will be in a pretty nice spot in a few years.
I totally agree. I was just focusing on retirements. I don’t really care about those going to AC as they are all junior to me. :)
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Re: Numbers on how many the regionals are hiring?

Post by Warden » Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:07 pm

Inverted2 wrote:
Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:16 am
Warden wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:02 pm
Inverted2 wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:33 pm
I think your numbers are a bit overly optimistic. Although 500 retirements at Jazz in the next 5 years would be nice, I think it will be less than half that. The retirement numbers are never accurate from the list due to some taking the ERP.

Here’s the #s I got from the alpa retirement section:
Pilots reaching 65:

2019 - 9
2020 - 15
2021 - 34
2022 - 28
2023 - 46
2024 - 45
2025 - 52
AC just posted a bid with over 800 vacancies. That means 480+ pilots will be coming from Jazz. They have been doing a pretty good job lately keeping with the 60% and word out of the training department is they have been very happy with ex Jazz pilots.

Those 800 vacancies are needed now. If AC could fill them tomorrow, they would. So take the 200 odd retirements at Jazz from now to 2025 and add the 480 and that 500 number doesn't seem so crazy.

If you stick around at Jazz you will be in a pretty nice spot in a few years.
I totally agree. I was just focusing on retirements. I don’t really care about those going to AC as they are all junior to me. :)
Yeah, true. Good place for anyone with a few years there already, but also not a bad place to go if you're searching for a regional job.
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