Grab a seat. The music is stopping

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fish4life
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by fish4life »

Eric Janson wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:34 pm
I'm writing this from Dubai.

Numerous events cancelled/postponed and the shopping Malls are a lot emptier.

Emirates has just asked staff to take paid/unpaid leave on a voluntary basis. Most flights to/from Iran cancelled.

Global travel is slowing. N America will be next.

This a multi-year Black Swan event imho.

I do wish people would do some research - this virus is nothing like the Flu.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.busine ... 20-3%3Famp

More people recovered than infected, it will be over in China soon.
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

Infections are plateauing in Italy also.

It's typical overblown media hysteria. The fact is the vast majority of people show few/no symptoms and recover quickly on their own.

This will be over and not even be making the news cycle in a matter of weeks or months, not years.

Onto the next "crisis."
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sarg
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by sarg »

complexintentions wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:31 am
I hope you're right. Hopefully AC losing 28% of its stock value and $3.9 billion of market cap is only a "buying opportunity".

Just saying that it may take more than shifting a few tails around to make that up by June. Especially if pax loads and yields fall by any appreciable amount, which is hardly unforeseeable.

As to perception, it's everything. A threat doesn't have to be that dire, or even real, for people to be afraid. People aren't rational. They see some scary videos on YouTube and that's it. Then they go out to carry on dying by the millions of preventable heart diseases.

Air Canada was the world's best airline stock two months ago. Now it's the worst.
Don't know about AC but Warren Buffet is betting that Delta is under valued right now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... Jq90kSNppr
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ayseven
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by ayseven »

Interesting, because he didn't used to like airlines.
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CPT.HarshColdReality
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by CPT.HarshColdReality »

Air travel is nowhere to go. It will only continue to increase exponentially!
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

ayseven wrote:
Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:43 pm
Interesting, because he didn't used to like airlines.
He refuted that position several years ago. Said the fundamentals had changed.
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47north
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by 47north »

If anyone things this isn’t going to affect Canadian carriers they haven’t been paying attention:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united- ... break.html
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CL-Skadoo!
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by CL-Skadoo! »

I guess if this is your first global crisis and being afraid of your own shadow just happens to be your thing, then it's a good time for panic.

Spread your tiny wings millennial falcons, you will endure!
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Blowin' In The Wind
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Blowin' In The Wind »

CL-Skadoo! wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:57 pm

Spread your tiny wings millennial falcons, you will endure!
lol
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

It's OK I'm not one of those college to Jazz to AC hires and have actual experience. IF layoffs occur I'm sure I'll be able to find a job somewhere, might not be what or where I want to be but at least I won't starve. The rez needs pop and chips no matter what.

I'd had to be someone in flight school or just finishing if we do end up hitting a big recession in airline travel and the economy.
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

No crisis wasted.
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DHC-1 Jockey
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

UK’s 3rd largest airline Flybe Airlines has just ceased operations due to Corona virus:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguar ... -to-follow
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Yycjetdriver
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Yycjetdriver »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:59 pm
UK’s 3rd largest airline Flybe Airlines has just ceased operations due to Corona virus:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguar ... -to-follow
They’ve been struggling since long before the corona virus, likely an excuse.
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7ECA
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by 7ECA »

Flybe has been on life-support since January, right around the same time as Thomas Cook went belly up. Flybe has gone tits up, because the UK Government refused to give them a bridge loan. 2000 employees out of work...
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JohnnyHotRocks
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by JohnnyHotRocks »

Coronavirus could cost airline industry $113bn
From CNN's Robert North
The coronavirus outbreak could cost the airline industry as much as $113 billion in lost revenue, according to the airline industry body IATA.

In new forecasts, IATA said airlines' passenger business could lose $63bn if the coronavirus outbreak is contained (in current markets with over 100 cases as of March 2). It warned, however, that if the virus continues to spread, the cost could rise to $113bn.

In this worst-case scenario, the big falls would be in Asia and Europe. IATA said European airlines could see passenger numbers drop by 24%.

This is a big increase to IATA’s previous forecasts. On February 20, IATA predicted that airlines would lose $29.3bn.
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complexintentions
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by complexintentions »

There have been and will continue to be massive financial losses. Not just for airlines. It's no secret that airlines have razor-thin margins and the supply chain is global, thus vulnerable. But Flybe is a non-sequitur, they should have folded much sooner.

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

9/11, Y2K, GFC, on and on. There will always be another crisis. Everyone likes to think their crisis is "special". It isn't.

The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

And really, if it turns out that those of us not freaking out are wrong and Covid-19 is TEOTWAWKI*, will irrational fear help prevent it?

'The unknown is so much more frightening': A tiny number summons a huge, historic panic


*The End Of The World As We Know It
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Bede
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Bede »

complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am
The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.
lol. Remember idiocy is multiplicative, not additive. 2 half wits doesn't make a full wit- it makes a quarter wit.
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digits_
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by digits_ »

complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am
people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

digits_ wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am
complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am
people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
You can have a high IQ and still be dumb as @#$!.
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dumbbell daddy
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by dumbbell daddy »

complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am
There have been and will continue to be massive financial losses. Not just for airlines. It's no secret that airlines have razor-thin margins and the supply chain is global, thus vulnerable. But Flybe is a non-sequitur, they should have folded much sooner.

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

9/11, Y2K, GFC, on and on. There will always be another crisis. Everyone likes to think their crisis is "special". It isn't.

The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

And really, if it turns out that those of us not freaking out are wrong and Covid-19 is TEOTWAWKI*, will irrational fear help prevent it?

'The unknown is so much more frightening': A tiny number summons a huge, historic panic


*The End Of The World As We Know It
I'm going to copy and paste this and send it to all my idiot family and friends. They'll probably be too busy to read it. Stocking up on toilet paper........
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Inverted2
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Inverted2 »

It’s true. The new generation is in a decline. Can you imagine someone who can’t change a light bulb or furnace filter etc? They might even be flying the plane you’re on.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.studyfi ... nds/%3famp
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complexintentions
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by complexintentions »

digits_ wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am
complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am
people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
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yycflyguy
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by yycflyguy »

Bede wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:19 am
complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am
The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.
lol. Remember idiocy is multiplicative, not additive. 2 half wits doesn't make a full wit- it makes a quarter wit.
The maths is hard!! :lol:
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:32 pm
digits_ wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am
complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am
people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
They made a movie about it.

https://youtu.be/sP2tUW0HDHA
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MCB
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by MCB »

altiplano wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
complexintentions wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:32 pm
digits_ wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am


That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
They made a movie about it.

https://youtu.be/sP2tUW0HDHA
'Idiocracy' writer: I never expected my movie 'to become a documentary'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... me-a%3famp
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